HNB全球渗透率加速提升的背景下，我们可以看到烟草龙头转型的急迫性在持续提升，但是目前仅有PMI具备完 善的HNB研发&生产链路，#英美&日烟&韩烟均需外部供应商助力。 【信达消费】思摩尔国际：塞尔维亚新品上市倒计时！多重催化加速落地 事件：根据英美烟草塞尔维亚IG官方账号， PLUS上市在即，2月2日将揭晓更多信息。 我们预计，新版本将根据前代产品系统性升级，#之前多个使用痛点有望逐步解决，性能或将多维度提升。 HNB全球渗透率加速提升的背景下，我们可以看到烟草龙头转型的急迫性在持续提升，但是目前仅有PMI具备完 善的HNB研发&生 【信达消费】思摩尔国际：塞尔维亚新品上市倒计时！多重催化加速落地 事件：根据英美烟草塞尔维亚IG官方账号， PLUS上市在即，2月2日将揭晓更多信息。 我们预计，新版本将根据前代产品系统性升级，#之前多个使用痛点有望逐步解决，性能或将多维度提升。 此外，在PMI强势专利封锁下，HNB本身研发难度高、创新难度高，#全球可落地的成熟商业化解决方案稀缺（25 年很多新方案远未达到量产阶段）。 HILO作为近年来唯一一个可以对标IQOS的产品，一年时间即可完成创新升级，#思摩尔全球HN ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International (6969.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report suggests a positive outlook based on market developments and company performance [1]. Core Viewpoints - The marketing promotion of HILO in Japan is expected to accelerate, while the compliance market in the US is showing signs of recovery [1]. - The competitive landscape in Japan is intensifying, with major players like Philip Morris and British American Tobacco reducing prices, which may enhance HILO's market share [2]. - The US market is anticipated to improve further, with an increase in the compliance product listing rate expected from Q3 2025, benefiting Smoore's core supply chain [2]. - In Europe, Smoore's ODM revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 38% in the first half of 2025, indicating a successful transition from disposable products to compliant alternatives [3]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) product line is set to launch in Japan and expand into Europe, with expectations for revenue growth in subsequent quarters [3]. - Profit forecasts indicate a continuous improvement in operational performance, with net profits projected to reach 1.23 billion, 2.02 billion, and 3.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Market Developments - The US FDA and CBP have conducted significant enforcement actions against unauthorized e-cigarette products, indicating a tightening regulatory environment that may benefit compliant products [1]. - The introduction of new regulations in various US states is expected to enhance the market for compliant products, with a notable increase in the market share of compliant flavors [2]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 11.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 19.3 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18% [6]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a decline in 2024 to a significant increase by 2027, reflecting a turnaround in profitability [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.21 yuan in 2024 to 0.49 yuan in 2027, indicating improved shareholder value [6]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on product innovation and compliance, with a shift from disposable products to more sustainable and compliant offerings, which is expected to drive growth in various markets [3]. - The operational cash flow is projected to improve significantly, reflecting better management of working capital and operational efficiency [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 60.13 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 18.3% year-on-year increase. However, the total comprehensive income is projected to be between 4.51 billion and 5.51 billion yuan, indicating a decline of 23.9% to 37.8% year-on-year, with a median estimate of 5.01 billion yuan, which is a 30.8% decrease [1] - The company anticipates maintaining double-digit revenue growth in Q2 2025, although profits are under pressure due to increased share-based payment expenses of 176 million yuan and a rise in sales and management expense ratios [1] - The company is actively responding to market changes, with expectations for stable growth despite regulatory pressures on traditional disposable products. The company is focusing on expanding its compliance product offerings and enhancing its self-owned brand overseas [2] - The HILO product is performing well, with an accelerated expansion in the Japanese market, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's HNB growth [2] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 12.1 billion, 20.3 billion, and 30.0 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 99.4X, 59.3X, and 40.3X [2] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 11.799 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6%. For 2025, the revenue is expected to be 12.011 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.303 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 1.213 billion yuan in 2025, before rising to 2.034 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.995 billion yuan in 2027 [4][6] - The company's operating income is expected to grow from 11.799 billion yuan in 2024 to 17.063 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.57% [4][6] - The company's cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 1.753 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 942 million yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 3.084 billion yuan by 2027 [7]