Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The medium - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is oscillating strongly. Before mid - March, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations. The market may run strongly due to restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply, but geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, changes in the Fed's interest policy expectations, and tariff fluctuations are important factors disturbing the market. The low - end price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500, and the high - end around 24,000 - 25,000. The price of aluminum ingots after the Spring Festival in 2026 shows a trend of bottoming out, digesting, and then oscillating and recovering. In the short term, it is weakly affected by high inventory, and in the medium term, it will gradually strengthen with the full resumption of work of downstream industries and the start of the traditional peak season, mainly with range - based recovery and no significant unilateral market. [4][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall View - **Bauxite market**: It shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With the increase in shipping volume since January, the inventory at major Chinese ports is expected to gradually increase in mid - to late February. The cost of transporting bauxite from Guinean mines to ports varies greatly. Large mines have strong cost - resistance, while some small - and medium - sized inland mines are under cost pressure but have not significantly reduced production. The Guinean government's quota system policy, if introduced, may significantly affect supply, but there is no official confirmation yet. [9] - **Alumina market**: As of February 13, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity is about 93.3 million tons (93.6 million tons last week), and the operating rate is 83.46%. The operating capacity has slightly declined from the high level since October 2025 but is still at a high level in recent years. [9] - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In January, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 46.1865 million tons, and the output was 44.7793 million tons. The production capacity has plateaued, but the output has slightly increased. In 2026, the domestic supply is under rigid constraints. Although the high aluminum price has promoted an increase in overseas marginal production, the new energy investment of electrolytic aluminum plants in Europe and the US is severely restricted by carbon taxes and high electricity prices, and new projects in countries like India and Indonesia are progressing slowly due to power supply issues. The global aluminum supply elasticity in 2026 is expected to be very small. [9] - **Electrolytic aluminum import and export**: The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 2,400 yuan/ton (about 2,000 yuan/ton last week), at a low level in recent years. In 2026, China's aluminum profile exports are expected to show a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthroughs, but increasing external barriers". Although the overall growth rate may slow down, the export structure in high - value - added fields such as new energy and transportation lightweighting continues to optimize. [9] - **Electrolytic aluminum inventory**: As of February 12, the social inventory of aluminum was about 914,000 tons, and on February 19, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants was about 191,000 tons, both near the same - period high since 2024. On the 12th, the social inventory of aluminum rods was 309,000 tons, at a high level in the past 10 years. However, the inventory accumulation is expected to reach an inflection point between February 24 - 26. The LME aluminum inventory is about 475,600 tons, which has slightly declined since 2025 and is at a low level in recent years. [9] - **Alumina profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 2,680 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about - 50 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 160 yuan/ton. [10] - **Electrolytic aluminum profit**: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,600 yuan/ton (6,500 yuan/ton last week), at a high level in history. [10] 2. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend judgment**: The medium - term trend is oscillating strongly, and before mid - March, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations. The market may run strongly due to restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply. [4] - **Trend judgment logic**: The start of restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply will drive the market to run strongly. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, changes in the Fed's interest policy expectations, and tariff fluctuations are important factors disturbing the market. [4] - **Mid - line strategy suggestion**: Keep an appropriate inventory. [4] 3. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: Continue to hold medium - term long positions, and new long positions can be appropriately established below 23,000. [7] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory, and for spot enterprises, consider light - position long positions or clear positions for the holiday. [7] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - The full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,680 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 50 yuan/ton, a theoretical profit of the futures main - contract of about 160 yuan/ton, and a theoretical import profit of about - 50 yuan/ton (the same as last week). The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton (the same as last week), the theoretical profit is about 6,600 yuan/ton (about 6,500 yuan/ton last week), and the theoretical import loss is about 2,400 yuan/ton (about 2,000 yuan/ton last week). [12] 5. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,540 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,520 yuan/ton before the holiday. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and it has a neutral - to - supportive impact on electrolytic aluminum. [21][23] 6. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of LME aluminum has slightly narrowed recently but is still at a high level since 2018. In the latest period, the net long position of funds has continued to decline slightly. Since late January, long - position holders have slightly reduced their positions at high levels, while short - position holders have slightly increased their positions. Currently, long - position holders have heavy floating - profit positions, which may lead to repeated high - level market conditions. [25]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum and alumina markets, providing in - depth analysis of market conditions, supply - demand balance, and price trends [1][88] Aluminum Market Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminum has significant fundamental support with a continuous global supply gap and low supply elasticity, and new demand growth points during the energy transition. However, due to strong market expectations, prices have broken through previous highs ahead of schedule. The short - term market is expected to cool down before the Spring Festival but will maintain an overall oscillating and upward - trending pattern, with a mid - term upward trend remaining unchanged [3] Summary by Section LME Market Performance - Analyzes aluminum import and export profits, LME aluminum speculative fund net positions, LME aluminum price trends, overseas mainstream consumer spot trade premiums, LME aluminum spot premiums and discounts, and LME aluminum inventory [5][6][7][8][9] Aluminum Inventory Performance - Discusses domestic and international aluminum inventory changes, including social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, bonded area aluminum ingot inventory, and LME aluminum total inventory [15][16][17][18] Spread Conditions - Covers Shanghai - Guangdong spread, mainstream consumer base spreads, mainstream consumer price spreads, and monthly spreads [20][24] Aluminum Primary Processed Product Processing Fees - Analyzes processing fees of primary aluminum products such as aluminum rods in Shandong, aluminum sheets and strips in Henan, and the scrap - refined aluminum spread [28][30] Recycled Aluminum Alloy Spot Conditions - Examines recycled aluminum alloy production, prices, import profits, and inventory [36][37][38][42][45] Supply Side - Analyzes global and domestic electrolytic aluminum supply, including production, profits, net imports, and capacity changes [51][52][53][54][56][58] Aluminum Processing Capacity Utilization - Discusses the capacity utilization rates of various aluminum processing sectors such as profiles, sheets and strips, foils, cables, and alloys [60][61] Downstream Demand - Analyzes downstream demand in industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, real estate, power, home appliances, and exports [63][68][72][75][79][82] Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Outlook - Provides a long - term supply - demand balance table for aluminum, including global, overseas, and domestic production, demand, and balance [85][86] Alumina Market Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Alumina is in an overall surplus situation. Although previous warrant transactions absorbed some surplus, they also pressured near - term prices. The market should focus on high - cost capacity utilization rate changes and new capacity construction progress. The price may rebound with market sentiment but is still under pressure, especially if new capacity is put into operation as scheduled [90] Summary by Section Alumina Strategy Outlook - The trading strategy suggests that alumina prices will be under pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options [93] Warrant and Inventory - Analyzes the relationship between alumina warrants, basis, and inventory, and mentions the potential for short - term production cuts [94][99] Cost and Profit - Analyzes the cost and profit of alumina in different regions, including weighted average costs, regional costs, and profitability [102][105][106] Downstream Inventory - Discusses the inventory situation of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises and alumina enterprises [108] Alumina Import and Export - Analyzes alumina import and export data, import and export profits, and overseas market transactions [111][112][113][114][115] New Capacity Progress - Analyzes the new capacity construction plans for domestic and overseas alumina, with a focus on the progress in the first quarter of 2026 [116][117][118][119] Guinea Bauxite - Analyzes the cost of Guinea bauxite, policy trends, supply situation, and price changes [120][123][126][127] Alumina Supply - Demand Balance - Provides a long - term supply - demand balance table for alumina, including global, overseas, and domestic production, demand, and balance [136]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrolytic aluminum industry is a bullish and volatile trend, suggesting holding long positions in the medium term and waiting for price increases [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the electrolytic aluminum market is a bullish and volatile trend in the short - to - medium term. Macro - sentiment is the main driving factor. Supply constraints are expected due to technological upgrades in Xinjiang and power rationing during the dry season in Yunnan in January. Although demand in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors is growing, the off - season pressure remains, and the market is mainly driven by rigid demand replenishment [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Viewpoint - **Bauxite Market**: After the Guinean presidential election on December 28, 2025, the mining industry is expected to focus on "clearing inventory and optimizing structure". The cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to ports is between $20 - 45 per ton, and the CIF average price in 2026 is expected to range from $58 - 68 per ton [8] - **Alumina Market**: As of December 26, 2025, China's alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 94.4 million tons, with a utilization rate of about 85.14%. In 2026, new domestic alumina production capacity will be about 14.4 million tons per year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The market may experience a cycle of "shortage - re - surplus" in 2026 [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In November 2025, China's domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.9165 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6393 million tons. The global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to disappear in 2026 [8] - **Imports and Exports**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,400 yuan per ton. In November 2025, China exported 570,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The cumulative export from January to November was 5.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [8] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 612,000 tons, up about 4% from last week and about 29% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 125,400 tons, up about 7% from last week and about 20% from last year. LME aluminum inventory is at a low level in recent years [9] - **Profits**: The average full - cost of the China alumina industry in the past month is about 2,780 yuan per ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan per ton. The theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum production is about 5,000 yuan per ton [9] - **Market Expectations**: The positive macro - sentiment dominates, but the fundamental pressure restricts the continuous rise of aluminum prices. It is expected that the spot aluminum price will rise slightly and then return to range - bound trading next week, with an average weekly price of about 21,850 yuan per ton [9] Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products have different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite SI2 - 3% from Guinea decreased by 4.35% week - on - week, and the price of alumina in Henan decreased by 2.36% week - on - week. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased by 0.99% week - on - week [10] Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of bauxite at ports decreased slightly, and the inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the LME aluminum inventory remained stable at a low level [11][14][15] Supply - Demand Situation - **Downstream开工概况**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% this week. Affected by factors such as weak orders, environmental protection control, and high aluminum prices, the off - season characteristics are more obvious, and the operating rate may continue to decline in the short term [22] Futures - Spot Structure - The Shanghai aluminum futures show a positive market structure with higher prices for distant contracts. The output of electrolytic aluminum plants can be smoothly transferred to the middle and lower reaches [27] Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,810 yuan per ton, and the current spread has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34] Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position of funds is at a high level since 2018, and overseas funds are still dominated by bulls, but the high floating - profit positions of bulls may lead to repeated high - level market conditions [36] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main force has turned to a net short position this week. The main funds are still cautious about the recent price increase [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market. The future week's fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [5][8]. - Domestically, supportive policies continue to be implemented, but the electrolytic aluminum production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year. Overseas, there is high macro - uncertainty. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9%. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties [5][9]. - Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders, and the operating rate is under pressure. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [10][24][25]. - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend presents a large - range oscillation. Domestic supportive policies continue to be implemented, production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year, but overseas macro - uncertainty is high. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week was expected to be between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [8]. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Bauxite Market**: In June, China's aluminum bauxite production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and increased by 4.1% year - on - year. Recently, domestic production has declined due to inspections and is expected to recover after the inspections end. In July, the arrival of imported aluminum bauxite in China is expected to remain high, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 3, China's alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, the operating capacity was 88.63 million tons, and the weekly national operating rate was 79.97%, a decrease of 0.31% from last week. In the second half of the year, both domestic and overseas supply and demand will be in an oversupply situation, but the degree of oversupply has narrowed compared with the first quarter [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of the end of June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.82 million tons, and the production in June increased by 1.57% year - on - year. The resumption of production in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is nearing completion, and new production capacity is difficult to release due to environmental protection policies and energy consumption dual - control. Overseas production is limited by high energy costs, and the overall capacity utilization rate is high. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties. It may maintain a certain resilience or even perform better than expected, but it may also face significant downward pressure [9]. - **Demand**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% this week. Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders and the operating rate is under pressure [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased by about 3% compared with the previous week and decreased by about 39% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate next week. The inventory of aluminum rods increased by about 9% compared with last week and was about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased slightly in the past two weeks [10][14][15]. - **Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of China's alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: Domestically, favorable policies continue to be strengthened, and the direction of promoting consumption remains unchanged. Overseas, the macro - situation is mixed with risks. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week will oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic aluminum ore remain stable, and the spot trading in the imported ore market is light. The price of动力煤is expected to remain strong in the short term. The spot price of alumina has increased slightly, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3050 yuan/ton [12]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported aluminum bauxite has decreased slightly. The alumina inventory has remained relatively stable. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas is expected to continue to accumulate, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased significantly. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to accumulate [14][15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton [18]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week. Affected by factors such as high aluminum prices, insufficient profits, and weak downstream demand, it is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the market has low expectations for the upward space of the aluminum price in the second half of the year [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, which is lower than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [35][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise slightly in the past 8 weeks. The short - selling camp has reduced positions in the past month, and the long - buying camp has increased positions in the latest period. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [37].