电解铝 期货品种周报 2026.2.24-2.27 中线行情分析 中期震荡偏强格局，3月中旬前或高位宽幅震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 3月补库启动+旺季需求+供应偏紧，市场或偏强运行，不过期间美伊地缘局 势、美联储利息政策预期变化及关税波动成为扰动市场的重要因素，期间电 解铝低位预计约22000-22500，高位约24000-25000。 2 适当保持库存。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 轻仓多单或清仓过节。 上周策略回顾 中期多单继续持有，新多仓可考虑23000以下适量布局。 本周策略建议 国内铝产业重要环节利润情况： 最近一个月国内氧化铝行业完全成本约2680/吨，理论现货亏损约50元/吨，期货 主力盈利约160元/吨，氧化铝理论进口盈利约-50元/吨，上周理论盈利-50元/吨；电解铝生产成本约16600元/吨， 上周约16600元/吨，理论利润约6600元/吨（上周约6500元/吨）；电解铝理论进口亏损约2400元/吨，上周亏损约 2000元/吨。 持有适量现货库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2026年2月第1周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 整体呈 ...

电解铝 ：宏观预期反复 铝市场中期仍看好 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 ◼ 衍生品：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 宏观：特朗普对格陵兰岛先鹰后鸽的"TACO"表态对市场影响明显，美联储下一任主席及降息预期仍存分歧、地缘政治风险叠加去美元 化对有色金属仍存影响。周中日本长期国债市场因政策超预期而遭遇"疯狂"抛售、但随着日本大型金融机构释放明确增持信号，抛售压 力显著缓和，叠加美国通胀指标符合预期，风险偏好得到提振。 ◼ 产业供应：近期无超预期变动，安哥拉新项目如期投产，电解铝全球供给端刚性预期明显。前期负基差较大叠加铝棒产量下降共同带动短 期铸锭增加。 ◼ 产业需求：价格回调企稳后，需求端存在一定补库操作。目前全球的短缺仍主要体现在海外，一季度日本的铝溢价最终确定为每吨195 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrolytic aluminum industry is a bullish and volatile trend, suggesting holding long positions in the medium term and waiting for price increases [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the electrolytic aluminum market is a bullish and volatile trend in the short - to - medium term. Macro - sentiment is the main driving factor. Supply constraints are expected due to technological upgrades in Xinjiang and power rationing during the dry season in Yunnan in January. Although demand in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors is growing, the off - season pressure remains, and the market is mainly driven by rigid demand replenishment [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Viewpoint - **Bauxite Market**: After the Guinean presidential election on December 28, 2025, the mining industry is expected to focus on "clearing inventory and optimizing structure". The cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to ports is between $20 - 45 per ton, and the CIF average price in 2026 is expected to range from $58 - 68 per ton [8] - **Alumina Market**: As of December 26, 2025, China's alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 94.4 million tons, with a utilization rate of about 85.14%. In 2026, new domestic alumina production capacity will be about 14.4 million tons per year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The market may experience a cycle of "shortage - re - surplus" in 2026 [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In November 2025, China's domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.9165 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6393 million tons. The global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to disappear in 2026 [8] - **Imports and Exports**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,400 yuan per ton. In November 2025, China exported 570,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The cumulative export from January to November was 5.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [8] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 612,000 tons, up about 4% from last week and about 29% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 125,400 tons, up about 7% from last week and about 20% from last year. LME aluminum inventory is at a low level in recent years [9] - **Profits**: The average full - cost of the China alumina industry in the past month is about 2,780 yuan per ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan per ton. The theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum production is about 5,000 yuan per ton [9] - **Market Expectations**: The positive macro - sentiment dominates, but the fundamental pressure restricts the continuous rise of aluminum prices. It is expected that the spot aluminum price will rise slightly and then return to range - bound trading next week, with an average weekly price of about 21,850 yuan per ton [9] Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products have different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite SI2 - 3% from Guinea decreased by 4.35% week - on - week, and the price of alumina in Henan decreased by 2.36% week - on - week. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased by 0.99% week - on - week [10] Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of bauxite at ports decreased slightly, and the inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the LME aluminum inventory remained stable at a low level [11][14][15] Supply - Demand Situation - **Downstream开工概况**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% this week. Affected by factors such as weak orders, environmental protection control, and high aluminum prices, the off - season characteristics are more obvious, and the operating rate may continue to decline in the short term [22] Futures - Spot Structure - The Shanghai aluminum futures show a positive market structure with higher prices for distant contracts. The output of electrolytic aluminum plants can be smoothly transferred to the middle and lower reaches [27] Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,810 yuan per ton, and the current spread has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34] Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position of funds is at a high level since 2018, and overseas funds are still dominated by bulls, but the high floating - profit positions of bulls may lead to repeated high - level market conditions [36] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main force has turned to a net short position this week. The main funds are still cautious about the recent price increase [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market. The future week's fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [5][8]. - Domestically, supportive policies continue to be implemented, but the electrolytic aluminum production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year. Overseas, there is high macro - uncertainty. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9%. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties [5][9]. - Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders, and the operating rate is under pressure. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [10][24][25]. - The aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend presents a large - range oscillation. Domestic supportive policies continue to be implemented, production is approaching the bottleneck with limited incremental output this year, but overseas macro - uncertainty is high. New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week was expected to be between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the future week is expected to be between 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading is recommended. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [8]. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Bauxite Market**: In June, China's aluminum bauxite production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and increased by 4.1% year - on - year. Recently, domestic production has declined due to inspections and is expected to recover after the inspections end. In July, the arrival of imported aluminum bauxite in China is expected to remain high, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 3, China's alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, the operating capacity was 88.63 million tons, and the weekly national operating rate was 79.97%, a decrease of 0.31% from last week. In the second half of the year, both domestic and overseas supply and demand will be in an oversupply situation, but the degree of oversupply has narrowed compared with the first quarter [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of the end of June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.82 million tons, and the production in June increased by 1.57% year - on - year. The resumption of production in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is nearing completion, and new production capacity is difficult to release due to environmental protection policies and energy consumption dual - control. Overseas production is limited by high energy costs, and the overall capacity utilization rate is high. The global primary aluminum production growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. The export of aluminum products in the second half of the year has great uncertainties. It may maintain a certain resilience or even perform better than expected, but it may also face significant downward pressure [9]. - **Demand**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% this week. Affected by the off - season, aluminum processing enterprises generally have weak new orders and the operating rate is under pressure [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased by about 3% compared with the previous week and decreased by about 39% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate next week. The inventory of aluminum rods increased by about 9% compared with last week and was about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased slightly in the past two weeks [10][14][15]. - **Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of China's alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: Domestically, favorable policies continue to be strengthened, and the direction of promoting consumption remains unchanged. Overseas, the macro - situation is mixed with risks. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate at a high level in the short term, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week will oscillate between 20000 - 20800 yuan/ton [11]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic aluminum ore remain stable, and the spot trading in the imported ore market is light. The price of动力煤is expected to remain strong in the short term. The spot price of alumina has increased slightly, and the price of the aluminum rod market next week is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3050 yuan/ton [12]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported aluminum bauxite has decreased slightly. The alumina inventory has remained relatively stable. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas is expected to continue to accumulate, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased significantly. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to accumulate [14][15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 500 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17400 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3300 yuan/ton [18]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week. Affected by factors such as high aluminum prices, insufficient profits, and weak downstream demand, it is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing will continue to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the market has low expectations for the upward space of the aluminum price in the second half of the year [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, which is lower than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [35][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise slightly in the past 8 weeks. The short - selling camp has reduced positions in the past month, and the long - buying camp has increased positions in the latest period. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [37].