Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 95.2% [1] - The increase in revenue to 156.17 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, was driven by both volume and price increases across product lines, particularly in alumina [1] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, resulting in a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 10.7% based on the closing price on March 14, 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a 16.9% increase from 2023, and a net profit of 22.37 billion yuan, a 95.2% increase year-on-year [1] - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached 5.837 million tons, up 1.5%, with an average selling price of 17,550 yuan per ton, a 6.6% increase [1] - The alumina sales volume was approximately 10.921 million tons, up 5.3%, with an average selling price of 3,420 yuan per ton, a 33.6% increase [1] - The sales volume of aluminum alloy processing products was 766,000 tons, up 32.1%, with an average selling price of 20,324 yuan per ton, a 2.5% increase [1] Market Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to improve from 2024 to 2026, with projected surpluses of 490,000 tons and 240,000 tons, followed by a shortage of 350,000 tons in 2026 [2] - The report indicates that the central price of electrolytic aluminum is likely to rise due to a weakening in coal prices, which supports profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 22.49 billion yuan and 24.73 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.2% and 9.8% [3] - The report introduces a new profit forecast for 2027, estimating a net profit of 27.30 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 5.9, 5.4, and 4.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future returns [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 95.2%, driven by both volume and price increases in its products [1]. - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand balance in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market from 2024 to 2026, with expected price increases due to a tightening supply situation [2]. - The company is positioned as an integrated leader in the aluminum industry, with a strong focus on shareholder returns, proposing a final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 10.7% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [1]. - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached 5.837 million tons, up 1.5% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 17,550 yuan per ton, a 6.6% increase from 2023 [1]. - The average selling price of alumina increased by 33.6% to 3,420 yuan per ton, with sales volume of approximately 10.921 million tons, up 5.3% year-on-year [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025 and 2026 to be 22.49 billion yuan and 24.73 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.52% and 9.97% [4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.9, 5.4, and 4.9 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's leading position in the aluminum industry [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline in coal prices, which is expected to support profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2]. - The integration of the electrolytic aluminum sector into the national carbon market is anticipated, which may lead to increased costs for producers relying on thermal power, thereby promoting energy-saving measures [3].