电量弹性

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国投电力(600886):24业绩受补税拖累,25Q1雅砻江蓄能释放弹性
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-05-07 15:08
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was impacted by a one-time tax payment, while Q1 2025 shows potential for recovery due to increased hydropower generation from the Yarlung Tsangpo River [5][7] - The company reported a revenue of 57.819 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.643 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.92% [7] - The company anticipates a net profit of 7.153 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.67% [7][8] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 121.43 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 113.08 billion yuan [3] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 296.54 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.26% [3][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.89 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.98 [6][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: 57.391 billion yuan in 2025, 59.916 billion yuan in 2026, and 61.519 billion yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 7.153 billion yuan, with subsequent years showing growth to 7.524 billion yuan in 2026 and 7.691 billion yuan in 2027 [6][8] Operational Highlights - The company achieved a hydropower generation of 1,040.85 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.49% [7] - The company has a total installed capacity of 44.63 million kW, with ongoing projects contributing to future growth [7][8] - The company’s financial expenses decreased significantly, with a reduction of 5.63 billion yuan in 2024 [7]