Research Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The sugar market maintains an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. The international market is expected to be mainly in a low - level consolidation, while the domestic market will continue the internal - strong and external - weak situation [3][26]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **International Market**: The US dollar index is 100.98 (previous value 100.42), the US dollar against the Brazilian real is 5.69 (previous value 5.65), WTI crude oil price is $61.93 per barrel (+1.42%), and the New York raw sugar active contract price is 17.56 cents per pound (-1.46%). As of May 13, the net long positions of funds increased by 9,135 lots to 20,404 lots. As of May 1, the 25/26 season's cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1 million tons. As of April 30, the 24/25 season's sugar production in India was 25.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.77 million tons. As of April 9, the 24/25 season's sugar production in Thailand was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.31 million tons [1]. - **Domestic Market**: The spot price of Guangxi Group is 6,170 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is 5,855 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract remained flat. As of the end of April, the 24/25 season's sugar production in China was 11.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons. CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. As of the end of March, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season in China were 1.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 million tons [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook - **International Market**: It will be mainly in a low - level consolidation. Macroscopically, the US dollar stabilizes and rebounds, the US stock market rebounds, and market sentiment stabilizes. In the industry, the market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. In the 24/25 season, a slight reduction in Brazil's production and a significant decline in India's production are bullish factors, while a large - scale increase in production in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in the 25/26 season is bearish. The New York raw sugar rebounds after offering processing profits and corrects due to the decline in crude oil prices, generally oscillating in a low - level range. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][26]. - **Domestic Market**: The internal - strong and external - weak pattern will be maintained. In the 24/25 season, the domestic market expects continuous production increase and cost reduction. The import policies for syrup and premixed powder are tightened, and domestic prices are moving closer to the cost of out - of - quota imports. In terms of trend, Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. From January to March, conventional imports and imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased significantly year - on - year. Drought in Guangxi threatens the sugar production in the 25/26 season, and the internal - strong and external - weak pattern continues. Opportunities for narrowing the internal - external price difference should be continuously monitored in the second quarter [3][26]. 3.3 Macro Data - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is 100.98 (previous value 100.42), and the US dollar against the Brazilian real is 5.69 (previous value 5.65) [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price is $61.93 per barrel (+1.42%) [6]. 3.4 Industry Data 3.4.1 Market Price and Trading Data - **Price and Basis**: The New York raw sugar active contract price is 17.56 cents per pound (-1.46%). The spot price of Guangxi Group is 6,170 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is 5,855 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract remained flat. As of the end of April, the 24/25 season's sugar production in China was 11.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons. CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of last weekend, the Zhengzhou white sugar warehouse receipts were 32,580 lots [15]. - **CFTC Latest Position Report (New York Raw Sugar)**: As of May 13, long positions of funds increased by 4,865 lots, short positions decreased by 4,270 lots, and net long positions increased by 9,135 lots year - on - year to 20,404 lots, showing a slight increase [15]. 3.4.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - **Global Supply - Demand**: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previous forecast shortage of 4.88 million tons) [19]. - **Brazil**: As of April 16, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative crushed cane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.99%; sugar production was 730,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%; alcohol production was 920 million liters, a year - on - year increase of 11.54%; the cumulative ratio of cane for sugar production was 44.77%, compared with 44.08% in the same period of the previous year [19]. - **India**: As of April 30, the 24/25 season's sugar production in India was 25.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.77 million tons [19]. - **Thailand**: As of April 9, the 24/25 season's sugar production in Thailand was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.31 million tons [20]. - **China's Supply - Demand Data**: CAOC predicts that in the 24/25 season, domestic sugar production will be 11.15 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons (+100,000 tons), and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, domestic sugar production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons (+100,000 tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. Customs data shows that in March 2025, sugar imports were 70,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 1.61 million tons [20]. - **China's Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of April, in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons. The national sugar sales were 7.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 65.22% [20]. 3.5 Operation Suggestions Same as the content of next week's market outlook, with international market in low - level consolidation and domestic market maintaining the internal - strong and external - weak pattern [26].