Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 13 - On February 13, the last trading day before the long - holiday, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26% to 4082.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.28% to 14100.19 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.57% to 3275.96 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1999.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 161.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on February 23, closing at 4660.41, a decrease of 59.17 from the previous period [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - On February 13, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1687.6, a rise of 17.3 from the previous period. The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1134.7 yuan, a decrease of 2.0 from the previous period [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, and daily production has a slight decline. Coke inventory has a small increase, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron is at a low - season level, and steel profit is average. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1179 vehicles. The output of coking coal mines has a small increase. The spot auction transaction is inversely proportional to the price fluctuations of the futures. Under the influence of volatile futures prices, the transaction price mainly shows a small decline, and the terminal inventory has a large increase. The total inventory of coking coal has a large increase, and the production - end inventory has a slight increase. The winter - storage demand is coming to an end [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price has been oscillating upward recently. Excessive rainfall in major sugar - producing states in India may lead to a decline in sugarcane production, which may limit India's sugar exports. During the long - holiday, the US sugar price oscillated upward. Brazil's geographical and statistical institute expects the sugarcane planting area in 2026 to be 9.495363 million hectares, the same as last month's forecast and a 0.7% decrease from the previous year. The sugarcane output is estimated to be 706.96119 million tons, the same as last month's forecast and a 0.6% increase from the previous year. Five trading houses estimate that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 market year (ending in September) will be between 28.5 - 29 million tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - During the long - holiday, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price oscillated upward. ANRPC indicates that with the accelerated growth of the automobile industry in emerging and developed economies, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The global natural rubber production increased by 1.4% in 2025 and is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026. During the long - holiday, the Japanese rubber price oscillated upward [5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - During the Spring Festival, the main contract of CBOT soybeans showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation. Multiple positive factors such as China's commitment to purchase more US soybeans, dry weather in some parts of Argentina, a record - high soybean crushing volume in the US in January, and the EPA's plan to submit a biodiesel blending quota proposal for 2026 have boosted the US soybean price. Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and a bumper harvest is certain, with export expectations at a historical high. The USDA Outlook Forum expects the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season to increase to 85 million acres, indicating a long - term loose supply. In the domestic market, oil mills are gradually resuming work after the festival, the operating rate is rising, port soybean inventory is abundant, and soybean supply is loose. The soybean arrival volume from February to March will increase compared with the previous period, and the subsequent crushing volume will gradually rise, resulting in a generally loose supply of soybean meal. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America and the soybean arrival volume [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - After the festival, large - sized pigs are being concentratedly sold in the market, and the back - logged pig sources are continuously released, resulting in a generally loose supply. As of the end of January, the inventory of fertile sows in the country reached 39.58 million, slightly decreasing month - on - month but still at a relatively high level year - on - year, which supports sufficient supply. The improvement in breeding efficiency further amplifies the effective supply. After the festival, pork consumption has officially entered the off - season. The previous pickling and stocking are all over, and the household holiday stock has not been digested yet. The fresh - meat market's digestion capacity has declined, and it has entered the annual off - season. The demand side has weak support for the market. It is recommended to focus on the reduction progress of fertile sows and the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - During the long - holiday, the outer - market Malaysian palm oil maintained a range - bound oscillation, rising 2.88% compared with the pre - festival closing price. According to SPPOMA data, from February 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 23.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 22.24% month - on - month. According to ITS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 20 was 863,358 tons, a decrease of 8.9% compared with the same period last month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - During the 2026 Spring Festival, the Shanghai copper market was closed from February 14 to February 23. On February 13, the main contract closed at 100,380 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 100,780 yuan/ton, in the range of 99,400 - 102,350 yuan/ton, with a position of 140,000 and a trading volume of 140,000. The outer - market LME copper showed a V - shaped oscillation, first falling and then rising, in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 US dollars/ton. At the beginning of the holiday, the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on the price; at the end of the holiday, the expectation of Asian resumption of work and the tight supply supported the price to rebound, with a slight increase compared with the pre - festival price. The domestic main contract had no trading and no position change during the holiday, and the price was anchored to the outer - market and the expectation of resumption of work. The global copper mine is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee is at a low level, which provides bottom support. The inventory accumulation during the domestic holiday is limited. Before the holiday, there was profit - taking at a high level, and the low liquidity during the holiday amplified the outer - market fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream resumption - of - work rhythm, LME/bonded inventory, and the Fed's policy signals [5]. 2.8 Cotton - Before the festival, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,740 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 143 lots compared with the previous trading day. Internationally, the US cotton price rose, and the weekly line closed in the positive [6]. 2.9 Iron Ore - Before the festival, affected by the low profit rate of steel mills and weak demand, the growth rate of molten iron was slow. After the festival, the resumption of work of steel mills may drive the replenishment demand for raw materials, and the iron ore supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.10 Asphalt - Currently, the asphalt supply is seasonally shrinking, refineries are operating at a low load, and the terminal demand is weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term asphalt price is oscillating [6]. 2.11 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 787 on Friday, with a minimum of 785, a maximum of 791.5, and closed at 779.5, with a daily increase in positions of 242 lots. On February 13, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Although the outer - market price has increased, the domestic spot market was stable before the festival, and the situation needs to be verified after the festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - market sentiment on the price [6]. 2.12 Steel - After the festival, the demand will gradually recover and is unlikely to explode suddenly. With the convening of important meetings, the positive macro - policy expectations are released, and the market sentiment is warming up. Coupled with the rigid - demand replenishment of terminal enterprises after resuming work, the main task of the market before the Two Sessions is to digest the social inventory. Mid - to - late March is the real demand verification period and the key point of the market [6]. 2.13 Alumina - The market was relatively stable during the Spring Festival. Before the festival, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly, and the supply improved marginally. After the festival, attention should be paid to the production - start and production - reduction efforts. However, limited by the limited demand increase and the unopened export window, the overall inventory is still accumulating, and the industry supply - demand situation is still in excess. If the supply side fails to continue to shrink, alumina will still be in a weak situation [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - In 2026, the supply - side changes of global electrolytic aluminum are significantly disturbed. The planned new production capacity in Indonesia, India and other places exceeds 2 million tons, but the production - start process is slow due to disturbances in power costs, infrastructure, etc. The domestic production capacity utilization rate is close to saturation, and the room for further production increase is limited. In the short term, the supply - demand situation will remain in a tight - balance state, which may continue to support the aluminum price. The demand side is expected to be stable and improving. Aluminum has strong financial and macro - attributes, and the pressure effect of the off - peak and peak seasons on the fundamentals is weakened. The aluminum price will generally remain at a high level, with a wider fluctuation range, and the seasonality and regularity may be weakened [6].

Report Summary on February 4, 2026 1. Market Performance on February 3, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.29% to 4067.74, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.19% to 14127.11, and ChiNext Index up 1.86% to 3324.89. The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 25,658 billion yuan, a decrease of 411 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 index stopped falling and fluctuated, closing at 4660.11, up 54.13 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke**: The weighted index of coke had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1718.7, down 2.2. The first - round price increase was fully implemented, with general coking profits, slightly decreased daily production, and a small increase in inventory. Traders' purchasing willingness may improve [2][4]. - **Coking Coal**: The weighted index of coking coal had an interval consolidation, closing at 1176.6 yuan, down 2.1. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 913 vehicles. Coking coal mine output slightly increased, but spot auction transactions gradually declined. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory of coking coal rose sharply [3][4]. 2.2 Sugar - The US sugar had a slight decline after a large short - term drop due to technical reasons. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fell on February 3 due to lower spot prices and rose slightly at night. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, a 18.35% increase from the same period last year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - The Shanghai rubber market had a slight increase after a large short - term drop due to technical reasons and continued to rise at night driven by the stabilization and rebound of the non - ferrous metal market. As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 59.17 million tons, a 1.23% increase from the previous period [4]. 2.4 Soybean and Bean Meal - Brazilian soybean is in the early harvest period, and institutions have raised the production outlook. Stonex expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 181.6 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the January forecast. The domestic bean meal 2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton on February 3, down 0.84%. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the downstream demand is declining, with inventory accumulating again. As of the end of the 54th week of 2026, the bean meal inventory was 94.7 million tons, an increase of 4.02 million tons from the previous week [6]. 2.5 Livestock (Pig) - The main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11,600 yuan/ton on February 3, down 0.3%. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter window is narrowing, and farmers may sell pigs in advance, increasing the supply. The pre - festival demand provides limited support. In the medium term, the high inventory of sows and piglet replenishment will ensure future supply, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil market continued to fluctuate weakly after a high - level decline on February 3, with the decline easing. The main contract P2605 closed at 9094, up 0.89%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31, 2026, were 1.375718 million tons, a 14.89% increase from the previous month. As of January 30, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 70.14 million tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week and a 43.00% increase from the same period last year [6]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper had a deep V - shaped reversal. Driven by policy support (expanding strategic copper reserves), a weak US dollar, and rising LME copper prices, the market sentiment improved. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the terminal demand is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum al2603 closed at 23,035 yuan/ton on February 3. The market is evaluating the new Fed chairman candidate's monetary policy, which is currently bearish for the metal market. The supply is stable, and the social inventory is high. The demand is improving slightly, but the negative feedback from small and medium - sized factories is strengthening [7]. 2.8 Other Commodities - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 fell 1.14% to 777.5 yuan on February 3. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic arrival volume also increased slightly. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the short - term price will fluctuate [6]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan on February 3. The refinery's production plan in February decreased slightly, and the market demand was weak in the off - season, so the price will fluctuate [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,660 yuan/ton at night on February 3. The inventory increased by 75 lots. Textile enterprises' pre - festival replenishment willingness is low, and about 80% of the US cotton - producing areas are in drought as of January 27 [7]. - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 closed at 801 on February 3, with a decrease of 169 lots. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The port's coniferous log inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks [7]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3265 yuan/ton on February 3. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand is decreasing, and the market activity is low. The steel price will fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2809 yuan/ton on February 3. Some alumina plants in Shanxi, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Henan have reduced production, which supports the futures price to some extent. However, the overall oversupply situation remains, and the price is under pressure [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 30, the A-share market showed a mixed trend with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27%, and the trading volume decreased by 397 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The prices of various futures products, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, etc., were affected by different factors such as market supply - demand, international production, and macro - market sentiment [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3346.36, up 1.27%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.8627 trillion yuan, a decrease of 397 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on January 30, closing at 4706.34, a decrease of 47.53 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 30, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1723.6, up 21.3 from the previous day [2] - The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation on January 30, closing at 1163.8 yuan, up 14.7 from the previous day [3] - The first - round increase in coke prices has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. The iron - water production decreased slightly this period, and the export volume in December increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4] - The output of sample mines of coking coal declined, the port inventory of Mongolian coal was about 4 million tons with high pressure, and China's annual import of coking coal in 2025 decreased year - on - year [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Indian Sugar Trade Association expects India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season to increase by 13% to 29.6 million tons, but the export volume will still be below the quota of 800,000 tons. Affected by this, the US sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures declined [4] Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and slightly declined on January 30. The inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber changed accordingly [4] Soybean Meal - In the international market, Argentina's soybean crops are facing a potential yield reduction due to high - temperature drought, while Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the USDA expects a high - yield of 178 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal price is under pressure, and the futures price lacks a continuous upward drive [5] Live Pigs - On January 30, the live - pig futures contract LH2603 closed at 11,220 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change [5] Shanghai Copper - On January 30, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2603 closed at 103,680 yuan/ton. The market was affected by factors such as short - selling by the top 20 short - position holders, weak downstream procurement, and pre - festival risk aversion [5] Iron Ore - On January 30, the iron - ore futures contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 791.5 yuan. With an increase in Australian and Brazilian iron - ore supply, a decrease in domestic arrivals, and slow pre - festival restocking by steel mills, the iron - ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On January 30, the asphalt futures contract 2603 closed down 0.38% at 3424 yuan. In February, the refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and the price is in a volatile state supported by cost [5] Logs - The logs futures contract 2603 opened at 789, closed at 798 on January 30, with a decrease of 125 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [5][6][7] Cotton - On January 30, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,770 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 46 lots. As of January 29, the cotton procurement rate was 99%, and textile enterprises purchased as needed [7] Steel - Before the Spring Festival, steel prices fluctuated slightly due to a lack of industrial contradictions and weak speculative demand. After the Spring Festival, the market still faces pressure, but policy expectations may provide some support [7] Alumina - The supply of alumina may decrease slightly during the holiday due to production shutdowns and maintenance, while the demand remains stable as electrolytic aluminum production capacity stays high [7] Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of Shanghai aluminum remains stable as the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is good and production capacity is high. However, demand is weak due to the off - season and pre - holiday factors, and social inventory is increasing [7]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 26, 2026 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 4132.61, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.85% to 14316.64, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.91% to 3319.15. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 328.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.27 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Stock Indices: The CSI 300 index fluctuated slightly, closing at 4706.96, up 4.47 [2]. - Futures: - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1721.1, up 7.4 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated slightly and closed at 1166.2 yuan, up 15.8 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly lower due to the decline of US sugar on Friday and stable spot prices. At night, it continued to decline slightly under short - selling pressure [4]. - Rubber: Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted due to large short - term gains. At night, it continued to fluctuate and closed slightly lower [4]. - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1060 cents per bushel, down 0.7%. The domestic soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2768 yuan per ton, down 0.65% [5]. - Live Pigs: The live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11465 yuan per ton, down 0.86% [5]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures price continued to rise with increased positions, breaking through the 9000 integer mark. The main contract P2605 closed at 9092, up 2.04% [5]. - Shanghai Copper: The Shanghai copper closed at 101880 yuan per ton, with an opening price of 102800, a high of 103880, a low of 101760, and a settlement price of 102760 [5]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14580 yuan per ton at night, with an increase of 172 lots in inventory [5]. - Logs: The log 2603 main contract opened at 779.5, with a low of 773, a high of 779.5, and closed at 776, with a decrease of 1129 lots in positions [5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed down 0.95% at 784.5 yuan [7]. - Asphalt: The asphalt 2603 main contract fluctuated and rose 1.39% to close at 3279 yuan [7]. - Steel: The rb2605 closed at 3143 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3302 yuan per ton [7]. - Alumina: The ao2605 closed at 2732 yuan per ton [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2603 closed at 24215 yuan per ton [7]. 2. Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The expectation of the first - round price increase is strengthening, with wet - quenched coke expected to increase by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton. Iron production increased slightly, but the recovery was limited due to previous accidents [4]. - Coking Coal: Mines resumed production after the Spring Festival, and the output of sample mines rebounded, with the pre - holiday output expected to have peaked. Mongolian coal port transactions were average, and the port inventory exceeded 3.9 million tons. In 2025, China's total import of coking coal was 118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. In December 2025, the import volume was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% but a year - on - year increase of 28.57%. In 2025, China's total export of coke was 794.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.53%. In December 2025, the export volume was 1.0045 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39.95% and a year - on - year increase of 80.18% [4]. Soybean Meal - International: The US soybean export sales reached a record high this year, but the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was lower than the five - year average, and the dry weather in southern Argentina raised concerns about crop conditions. - Domestic: The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills exceeded 2 million tons, increasing soybean meal output. Pre - holiday stocking demand started, but the soybean meal futures price lacked continuous upward momentum due to expected sufficient post - holiday soybean supply. It is recommended to track South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - Supply: The slaughter rhythm of farmers accelerated. Although the monthly slaughter plan of group pig enterprises decreased, the actual slaughter level remained high, and many large - scale pig enterprises cut prices to sell. Some farmers may advance the February slaughter to January. - Demand: Southern pickling is coming to an end, reducing the demand for large pigs. Cold snap boosted pork consumption, and pre - holiday stocking started, but the medium - term supply pressure remains high. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the actual demand during the peak season [5]. Palm Oil - High - frequency data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 25, 2026, compared to the same period last month, with an increase of 7.97% according to AmSpec and 9.97% according to ITS [5]. Shanghai Copper - Macro expectations are positive, and the low TC of the ore end and tight inventory support the cost. However, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs before the Spring Festival, and the consumption off - season restricts price elasticity. Speculative sentiment is restricted by a 10% margin and an 8% price limit [5]. Logs - The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7]. Iron Ore - The shipments from Australia and Brazil and domestic arrivals decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, and iron production increased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - The overall refinery supply remains low, and the inventory accumulates slightly but is controllable. The demand is weak due to cold weather. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the supply - demand balance and healthy inventory support the price. However, the winter storage policies of steel mills will affect market sentiment and speculative demand, causing short - term price fluctuations. The price of construction steel will be adjusted in the context of weakening terminal demand [7]. Alumina - The operating capacity remains high, but the low spot price deteriorates corporate profits. Some alumina plants in Guizhou may conduct pre - maintenance. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited. The spot market has strong sales, with active morning trading and cautious afternoon trading [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, and the demand shows signs of stabilization. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has rebounded slightly, but the inventory continues to accumulate, and the demand for molten aluminum is still weak. The aluminum price is expected to consolidate in the short term [7].

客服产品系列•日评 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价平稳，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1450 元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应，个 别亏损的焦企有减产计划外，多数焦企开工仍维持正常水平，原料端煤价多数仍处高位，部分煤价小幅下调，焦 炭成本支撑依旧较强。需求，终端消费淡季影响，钢厂出货依旧疲软，钢厂利润不断走低，市场情绪不高，其焦 炭库存多处中高位水平，对高价原料抵触心理增加，部分钢厂采购积极性降低。 焦煤：山西临汾地区主焦原煤（S0.5、G85、回收 35）上调 8 元至出厂价 866 元/吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙 5#原 煤 1015 元/吨，价格跌 3；蒙 3#精煤 1085 元/吨，较上期价格跌 15。供应，主产区煤矿普遍已恢复生产，炼焦 煤供应量逐步回升，下游有一定补库需求，煤矿多无库存压力，下游部分企业补库需求开始减弱，贸易商投机逐 步谨慎。需求，下游暂无减产计划，需求仍有支撑，但部分焦钢企业厂内焦煤库存可用天数逐步回升，焦钢企业 对原料煤采购积极性放缓。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】一项大宗商品研究报告显示，2025/26 年度全球糖产量料达到 1.893 亿吨，较 2024/25 年度的 1.8097 亿 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 21, 2026 - A - share major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.08% at 4116.94, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.70% at 14255.13, the ChiNext Index up 0.54% at 3295.52, and the STAR 50 Index up 3.53% at 1535.39. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2624 billion yuan, a decrease of 180.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4723.07, up 4.19 [2] 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - On January 21, the coke weighted - index oscillated weakly, closing at 1685.6, down 10.1; the coking coal weighted - index was weakly sorted, closing at 1135.4 yuan, down 20.8 [2][3] - For coke, coke enterprises'开工 declined, and the total coke inventory was at a low level in the same period; blast furnace 开工 and daily hot - metal output decreased. Mainstream coke enterprises planned to raise prices on January 19, and the negotiation was still ongoing. For coking coal, the supply - side production capacity recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and raw coal inventory accumulated. The steel and coke load on the demand side declined, hot - metal output decreased, coke enterprises' losses expanded, and steel mills' profits increased. The price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1305 yuan/ton on the futures market [4] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the weak performance of the commodity market, US sugar oscillated lower on Tuesday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to oscillate downward on Wednesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by technical factors, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. Brazil exported 1.4366 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first three weeks of January, an increase of 0.1197 million tons or 9.09% compared with the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 130,600 tons [4] 2.3 Rubber - Boosted by factors such as a large short - term decline and the rebound of crude oil, Shanghai rubber oscillated upward on Wednesday. At night, the futures price of Shanghai rubber fluctuated little and closed slightly higher. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, an increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general - trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [4] 2.4 Palm Oil - Palm oil futures continued to rise. The main contract P2605 closed with a positive K - line, with the highest price of 8850, the lowest price of 8752, and the closing price of 8832, up 0.96% from the previous day. From January 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [5] 2.5 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened low and went low, and turned slightly positive at the end of the session, maintaining a high - level oscillation overall. The main continuous contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton, reached a low of 99,210 yuan/ton during the day, and closed at 101,280 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 100,420 yuan/ton, a position of 224,000, and a trading volume of 230,300 lots. On the supply side, the processing fee of copper concentrates continued to weaken, the profits of smelters were under pressure, 5 smelters planned to stop production in January, and the commissioning of a new plant was postponed, so the refined copper output was expected to decline month - on - month; the substitution of scrap copper increased, but raw material procurement was cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' willingness to stock up before the Spring Festival was weak, the purchase of copper products was insufficient; the terminal sales of new - energy vehicles decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, dragging down the demand expectation; short - term inventory accumulated, and spot sales were sluggish. The short - term weakness of the US dollar provided slight support for copper prices, but the uncertainty of US tariff policies remained [5] 2.6 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,550 yuan/ton on Wednesday night. The cotton inventory decreased by 4 lots compared with the previous trading day. According to the report of China National Cotton Reserves Corporation, the cotton planting area in Brazil reached 40%, and the expected output was 10% less than last year [5] 2.7 Iron Ore - On January 21, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.32% and a closing price of 784 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore and the domestic arrival volume both decreased this period, the port inventory continued to accumulate, some steel mills in certain regions were still in the annual maintenance stage, the hot - metal output decreased, and it was in a situation of weak supply and demand. The iron ore price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [5] 2.8 Asphalt - On January 21, the main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.45% and a closing price of 3157 yuan. The asphalt output increased, the inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not large. As the weather cooled down, the market's rigid demand would become dull, and it would mostly turn into stocking demand. The asphalt price showed an oscillating operation in the short term [5] 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 753.5 on Wednesday, with the lowest price of 751.5, the highest price of 767, and closed at 764, with an increase of 43 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot side. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. There was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the spot - side price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [5][6] 2.10 Steel - On January 21, rb2605 was reported at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3286 yuan/ton. Affected by the large - scale cold snap and freezing weather, the trading volume in the steel market had been declining for several days. The enthusiasm for winter stocking this year had weakened. The psychological price for winter stocking of Shandong trading enterprises was 3050 - 3080 yuan/ton (ex - factory). In the situation of weak supply and demand in the steel market, steel prices were under pressure. With the improvement of the weather, the trading volume of low - price resources might increase in the future. Coupled with the front - loaded implementation of fiscal and monetary policies, the market had certain expectations for the post - Spring Festival market, and the decline space of steel prices might be limited. In the short term, the downward trend of steel prices was expected to stabilize [6][7] 2.11 Alumina - On January 21, ao2605 was reported at 2672 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina had increased for two consecutive weeks, and imported goods continued to flow in, so the domestic oversupply situation continued. Although there was a marginal increase in demand, it was difficult to digest the excess supply. At the same time, the spot price of alumina was in a downward channel, and the prices of caustic soda and ore on the cost side were also falling. The weakening cost support reduced enterprises' willingness to cut production. Before the Spring Festival, the supply side would maintain an oversupply pattern. In the spot market, holders accelerated the shipment to recover funds due to concerns about price drops, but downstream enterprises held a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, the inquiry atmosphere in the market was cold, and most only maintained rigid - demand replenishment. The overall trading activity was poor today, and the whole - day trading volume was limited [7] 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 21, al2603 was reported at 24,155 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the newly invested production capacity of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad continued to ramp up, and the daily output increased steadily. On the demand side, there was a structural differentiation. The primary alloy and aluminum plate and foil industries saw a slight increase in the utilization rate due to year - end stocking and the peak consumption season, providing some rigid demand. However, the high price suppression and seasonal off - season effects still existed, the proportion of electrolytic aluminum liquid continued to decline month - on - month, indicating that the overall recovery momentum of terminal consumption was insufficient, and the inventory pressure was further highlighted, with no obvious improvement overall. Although the domestic macro - policy support expectation provided downward support for aluminum prices, the fundamental situation of loose supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation formed a bearish combination. Coupled with the sentiment suppression brought by the risk of Sino - European and Sino - American trade frictions, the short - term upward resistance of aluminum prices was significant [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is under pressure due to India's increased sugar production and global oversupply, but there may be support during the Brazilian off - season and the Ramadan stocking period. It is recommended to wait and see and consider double - selling out - of - the - money options [4]. - The pulp market has limited upside space before further overseas supply cuts or new production cut news, and the 2605 contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [4]. - The double - offset paper price is under pressure due to weakened cost support, but the widening basis may support the futures price. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [5][6]. - The cotton futures price may adjust narrowly in the short term and is expected to move up in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [7]. - The apple futures price may adjust at a high level in the short term and is expected to be supported in the medium term. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - The jujube futures price is oscillating at a low level and may rise. Aggressive investors can hold reverse spreads or long positions with protective puts [9][10]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fruit Futures**: - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions. The supply has medium - term support but the marginal driving force is decreasing. The support interval is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - Jujube 2605: Reduce short positions. The spot market has entered the consumption peak season, and inventory has peaked and started to decline. The support interval is 8900 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9300 - 9700 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: - Sugar 2605: Wait and see. There are differences in China's sugar production rate, and the international market supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5200 - 5230, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5380 [18]. - Pulp 2605: Try short - allocation. The impact of supply bullish factors is weakening, and the downstream paper products are in the off - season. The short - term pulp price is under pressure, but the low point of the futures price follows the rising cost of warehouse receipts. The support interval is 5300 - 5350, and the pressure interval is 5550 - 5600 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Wait and see. The fundamental situation has not changed much. The short - term futures price fluctuates with the pulp price, and the widening basis supports the double - offset paper futures price. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4300 - 4400 [18]. - Cotton 2605: Reduce long positions. There is a game between strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to move up. The support interval is 13500 - 13500, and the pressure interval is 15400 - 15500 [18]. Part 2: Plate Weekly Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: - Apple 2605: The closing price is 9541, down 148 (- 1.53%) for the week [19]. - Jujube 2605: The closing price is 8875, down 275 (- 3.01%) for the week [19]. - Sugar 2605: The closing price is 5258, down 30 (- 0.57%) for the week [19]. - Pulp 2605: The closing price is 5362, down 188 (- 3.39%) for the week [19]. - Double - offset Paper 2602: The closing price is 4048, down 148 (- 3.53%) for the week [19]. - Cotton 2605: The closing price is 14590, down 85 (- 0.58%) for the week [19]. - **Spot Market Review**: - Apple: The spot price is 4.70 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 0.45 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Jujube: The spot price is 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Sugar: The spot price is 5360 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 550 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Pulp: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp is 5550 yuan, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 1000 yuan year - on - year [24]. - Cotton: The spot price is 15931 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan from the previous period and an increase of 1182 yuan year - on - year [24]. Part 3: Plate Basis Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references [29][30]. Part 4: Inter - month Spread Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references [34][36]. Part 5: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change from the previous period and no change year - on - year [42]. - Jujube: The number of warehouse receipts is 3271, an increase of 60 from the previous period and a decrease of 699 year - on - year [42]. - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts is 14126, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 7939 year - on - year [42]. - Pulp: The number of warehouse receipts is 149134, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 196156 year - on - year [42]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts is 9666, an increase of 337 from the previous period and an increase of 3166 year - on - year [42]. - Cotton Yarn: The number of warehouse receipts is 70, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 7 year - on - year [42]. Part 6: Option - related Data - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: - Apple 2605: Sell out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been partially realized, and the futures price is in the high - level range [45]. - Jujube 2605: Sell deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market and the spot inventory is high [45]. - Sugar 2605: Consider double - selling call and put options as there are differences in China's sugar production and the international market supply is in surplus [45]. - Cotton 2605: Sell out - of - the - money put options as there is a game between strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures price is expected to move up [45]. - Pulp 2605: Sell put options with an exercise price of 4900 and call options with an exercise price of 5300 as there is cost support but weak upward fundamental driving force [45]. - **Option Data Figures**: There are figures for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, historical volatility, and implied volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton, but no specific text summary [46][48][54]. Part 7: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation - **Apple**: - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: There are figures for minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific text summary [56]. - **Export Situation**: There is a figure for apple export volume, but no specific text summary [59]. - **Inventory Situation**: There are figures for China's weekly apple storage inventory, as well as in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific text summary [60]. - **Jujube**: There are figures for jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei and the arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market, but no specific text summary [61]. - **Sugar**: There are figures for national sugar industrial inventory, monthly import volume, and the spot - futures spread, but no specific text summary [63][65][67]. - **Pulp**: There are figures for domestic pulp inventory, global producer inventory days, paper product weekly production, and pulp import volume, but no specific text summary [71][75][76]. - **Double - offset Paper**: There are figures for double - offset paper capacity utilization, production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption, but no specific text summary [78]. - **Cotton**: There are figures for retail sales, inventory, and consumption data in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data, but no specific text summary [81][82][88].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 14, 2026 - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31% to 4126.09, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56% to 14248.60, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.82% to 3349.14. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 39872 billion yuan, an increase of 2881 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Futures Indexes**: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4741.93, down 19.1 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the weighted coke index closed at 1740.1, down 22.2, and the weighted coking coal index closed at 1200.2 yuan, down 17.4 [2][3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Coke factories' inventory decreased by 6.04%. The resumption of iron - making production has stabilized coal and coke demand. However, there is a contradiction between market sentiment boosted by "industrial control" information and the inability of short - term fundamental data to meet expectations. For coking coal, supply and demand both increased, and the mine clean coal inventory increased by 0.57%. Iron water production rose by 0.91 million tons [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - **Price Movements**: Affected by the decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of December, the US sugar market stabilized on Tuesday. The Zheng Sugar 2605 contract rose on Wednesday but slightly declined at night due to long - position liquidation [4]. - **Production Data**: In the first half of December, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 28.8% year - on - year to 254,240 tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 32.8% year - on - year to 5.92 million tons. Since the start of the crushing season, the cumulative crushing volume was 598.19 million tons, a 2.36% year - on - year decrease [4]. 2.3 Rubber - **Price Movements**: Boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber rose on Wednesday but closed lower at night with narrow - range fluctuations [4]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: In November 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 20,891 tons, a 29.6% decrease from October, and the total inventory decreased by 17.3% to 120,208 tons [4]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - **International Market**: On January 14, the CBOT soybean market closed up. The US Department of Agriculture overestimated US soybean production but lowered export prospects and raised Brazil's soybean harvest forecast. China's continuous demand supported US soybeans. Brazil's soybean export volume in January is expected to reach 3.73 million tons [6]. - **Domestic Market**: On January 14, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2751 yuan/ton, a 0.36% decline. High inventory restricts price increases. Future focus should be on South American weather and soybean arrivals [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 12010 yuan/ton, a 1.82% increase [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the first half of January, the supply of medium - and large - sized pigs decreased slightly. However, there is still a possibility of early slaughter before the Spring Festival. Seasonal consumption is ongoing, but there is a short - term "gap" in consumption. Pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig farms, and the demand during the pickling season [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the palm oil futures price fluctuated and adjusted. The main contract P2605 closed at 8748, a 0.34% decrease [6]. - **Policy Information**: Indonesia will raise the palm oil export special tax to 12.5% on March 1. The future implementation of the B50 blending policy depends on the price difference between crude oil and crude palm oil [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - **Price Movements**: On January 14, Shanghai copper opened at 103780 yuan/ton, closed at 104120 yuan/ton, a 0.85% increase. Trading volume and open interest increased, indicating significant capital inflow [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slowdown of US core inflation and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the market, as well as China's policy of stabilizing growth, boosted market sentiment. Supply was restricted due to smelter maintenance, and demand from the new energy sector and pre - holiday stocking supported prices [6]. 2.8 Logs - **Price Movements**: The main log contract 2603 closed at 779.5 on January 14, with a daily reduction of 108 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7]. - **Market Outlook**: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7]. 2.9 Iron Ore - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the main iron ore contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 821 yuan. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments declined, port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mills' replenishment demand increased [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.10 Asphalt - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the main asphalt contract 2603 closed up 1.38% at 3168 yuan. Supply remained low, inventory increased, and downstream demand decreased significantly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supported by crude oil costs, the short - term asphalt price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.11 Cotton - **Price Movements**: On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14780 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 426 lots compared to the previous trading day. Downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [7]. 2.12 Steel - **Price Movements**: On January 14, rb2605 closed at 3162 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3306 yuan/ton. High production costs supported steel prices, but weak downstream demand restricted price increases [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. 2.13 Alumina - **Price Movements**: On January 14, ao2605 closed at 2800 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity remained high, and the market supply was in surplus, putting pressure on price increases [7]. - **Market Conditions**: Ore trading was light, and downstream profit margins were compressed, leading to a wait - and - see attitude. Spot prices continued to fall, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - **Price Movements**: On January 14, al2603 closed at 24595 yuan/ton. The market followed the trend of precious metals. Supply was normal, and social inventory continued to accumulate [7]. - **Market Conditions**: Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the demand in some fields was under pressure [7].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（1 月 9 日）A 股三大指数延续上攻步伐，沪指 16 连阳站上 4100 点，再创逾 10 年新高。 截止收盘，沪指涨 0.92%，收报 4120.43 点；深证成指涨 1.15%，收报 14120.15 点；创业板指涨 0.77%，收报 3327.81 点。沪深两市成交额突破三万亿，达到 31526 亿，较昨日放量 3261 亿。 【郑糖】美糖上周五承压于供应过剩前景期价小幅收低。郑糖 2605 月合约上周五走势波动不大呈现震荡整 理态势。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）公布的数据显示，截至 1 月 6 日当周，投机客增持 ICE 原糖期货和期 权净空头头寸 11,654 手，至 170,756 手。（数据来源：文华综合） 【胶】受空头打压沪胶上周五震荡走低。截止 1 月 9 日，上海期货交易所天然橡胶库存 120950 吨环比+3345 吨，期货仓单 104490 吨环比+3900 吨。20 号胶库存 59270 吨环比-2015 吨，期货仓单 56952 吨环比-1007 吨。（数 据来源： ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and current investment prospects [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and available investment chances [1] - Timber: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - term trend and proper investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balance of long and short trends and poor market operability [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing market conditions, supply - demand situations, and inventory data for each, and giving corresponding operation suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped significantly today with a large reduction in positions, and the recent rise was mainly driven by expectations. The downstream situation is average, and spot sales are normal with a stable - to - weak basis [2] - Although new cotton production has increased significantly, commercial inventory is lower year - on - year, and the sales progress is faster, providing strong support to the market. Demand remains stable during the off - season [2] - As of December 25th, cumulative processed lint reached 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. As of December 15th, national commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons [2] - Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is resilient, with low finished - product inventory, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the production expectation gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress is fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output, while Thailand's progress is slow and output is lower than expected [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In December in Guangxi, both production and sales decreased. December production was 180.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.1 million tons; sales were 79.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.18 million tons; industrial inventory was 105.71 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.21 million tons [3] - The significant drop in sales is due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there is a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. If production cannot increase later, futures prices will rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated at a high level. Spot prices remained stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, some soft - semi - commodity fruit farmers lowered their asking prices, and their willingness to sell increased [4] - Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and had less procurement of farmers' goods. Due to pre - Spring Festival stocking by merchants, cold - storage trading volume increased [4] - As of December 26th, national cold - storage apple inventory was 702.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.76%. The destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.17% [4] - The market trading logic has shifted to demand. This year's apple quality is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell may affect the destocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR dropped slightly, while the futures price of butadiene rubber BR rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices rose, and the port price of external butadiene continued to rise. The price of the Thai raw - material market was stable with a slight increase [5] - Globally, natural rubber supply has entered the production - reduction period. In China, the Yunnan production area has completely stopped tapping, the Hainan production area is accelerating the stop of tapping, and the Vietnam production area will gradually stop later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with some plants under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise [5] - Last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises continued to rise [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 54.83 million tons. Before the festival, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber continued to drop to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory dropped to 4.13 million tons [5] - After the festival, demand is expected to recover, natural rubber supply will decrease, synthetic rubber supply will be stable, natural rubber inventory will continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory will continue to decline, cost support will strengthen, and market sentiment will weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. Attention should be paid to macro and capital trends [6] - As of January 8, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, an increase of 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The inventory continued to accumulate [6] - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, providing some support for softwood pulp. Recently, the external quotes of softwood and hardwood pulp have increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp based on rigid demand, and the rise of base - paper prices is relatively weak. It is recommended to go long at low prices [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. Externally, quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [7] - As of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 5.65 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand has entered the off - season, and the outbound volume has decreased recently [7] - As of January 2nd, the total national port log inventory was 267 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]