Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 30, 2026 - A-Share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24% to 3923.29, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 13726.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68% to 3273.36. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1927.8 billion yuan, an increase of 63.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated within a range, closing at 4491.95, a decrease of 10.62 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1788.5, an increase of 4.9 from the previous day. In March, geopolitical factors led to rising raw material prices, and coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which has not been implemented yet. From January to February 2026, the cumulative national coke production was 82.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [2][4]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1271.5 yuan, an increase of 0.2 from the previous day. The coking coal production decreased year - on - year, but geopolitical issues affected energy prices. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.05% [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2609 contract fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and higher spot quotes, and then falling due to the decline in crude oil prices. At night, it was pressured by short - sellers and continued to decline. In the first half of March, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 88.6% year - on - year to 6000 tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. At night, it continued its recent oscillating trend, waiting for the situation in the Middle East to become clear. India's natural rubber demand is expected to grow by about 3.6% this year [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 30, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1158.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.06%. The U.S. soybean export inspection was lower than expected. As of March 26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 75%, lower than 82% in the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is about 180 million tons. - Domestic market: On March 30, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. With the relaxation of weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybean shipments, the customs clearance speed of soybean cargo ships will be accelerated. From April to May, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop decreasing and start to rise [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 30, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10005 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The monthly - end slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises slowed down slightly, and small - scale pig farms were more reluctant to sell. However, due to the high inventory of sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of market - ready pigs continued to increase, while the demand was insufficient, resulting in a situation of oversupply [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 30, affected by the news that Indonesia plans to restart its biodiesel program this year, the palm oil futures rose strongly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 9930, an increase of 1.66% from the previous trading day. Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, holding above the key level of 95,000 yuan. The CU2605 contract opened at 95080 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 96000 yuan and a minimum of 94750 yuan, closing at 95760 yuan. The trading volume was 1 million lots. The spot market was stable, and the inventory continued to decline. The fundamental supply was tight, and the downstream demand was recovering steadily [6][7]. 2.8 Cotton - On the night of March 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15405 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 1 lot compared with the previous trading day, and new cotton sowing has begun. Downstream textile enterprises purchase on demand [7]. 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825.5, with a minimum of 816, a maximum of 830, and closed at 826, with an increase of 24 lots in positions. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69% [7]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 30, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%, at 813 yuan. The iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mills continued to resume production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [7]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 30, the main contract of asphalt 2606 fluctuated and closed up 0.02%, at 4513 yuan. The refining and production plan of local refineries in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the refinery operating rate was low, the terminal road construction demand was weak, and the refinery shipments continued to decline. In the short term, the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. 2.12 Steel - On March 30, rb2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. The military actions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have lasted for a month, and the situation in the Middle East is still complex. Due to concerns about the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price oscillated at a high level on Monday. The attack on Iranian core steel mills affected the steel supply in the Middle East. The domestic steel market is affected by "cost support + export obstacles", and the steel consumption is recovering slowly. In the short term, the steel market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the increase in steel prices may be limited [7]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 30, ao2605 closed at 2941 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price has been rising strongly after reaching the bottom. This round of price increase is driven by multiple factors, but the market also faces the core suppression of long - term oversupply, showing a pattern of "strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectation" [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 30, al2605 closed at 24725 yuan/ton. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating stably, the aluminum - to - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and the aluminum rods are showing signs of inventory reduction. The demand side shows a contraction in receiving goods, and the downstream and terminal are still waiting and seeing [7][8].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The US intends to cease fire for a month and propose a "15 - item condition" peace - negotiation plan to Iran, which leads to a significant drop in international oil prices. This situation is bearish for the prices of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar, grains, and oils. The strategies for these commodities are to turn to a wait - and - see approach [3][10][13]. - The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices but bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have temporarily found support at the bottom and rebounded. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [6][7]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. The idea is to short on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [16]. - For pigs, the supply is in a concentrated realization period while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increase in the medium term is still poor. With more regions having prices below 10 yuan and piglets' prices falling in the peak season, panic spreads, driving the futures price to decline rapidly. The short - term spot market still lacks factors to break the negative cycle, and the near - term contracts may remain weak. Although there are more differences in the far - term contracts after the valuation has moved down, the production capacity has not been significantly reduced, and the basis for price increase under the premium situation is still insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see for now [19]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons compared with the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in the country was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The US's cease - fire intention and the decline in international oil prices are bearish for raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices. The strategy is to turn to a wait - and - see approach [3]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton processing trade import quota with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. From March 5th to 12th, the US's current - year cotton export sales were 46,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.1919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,400 tons; among them, the export to China was 2,400 tons that week, with cumulative exports to China of 106,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,800 tons. As of the week of March 20th, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.6%, a 2.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February forecast and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February forecast and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The US production forecast in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February forecast, with the export forecast remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as before. Brazil's production forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's production forecast increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [5]. - **Strategy**: The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices but bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have temporarily found support at the bottom and rebounded. It is recommended to try to go long on dips. The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bullish for cotton prices [6][7]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: S&P Global predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January. The US soybean planting area forecast was raised to 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From March 5th to 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with the current - year cumulative soybean exports of 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; among them, the export to China was 80,000 tons that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20th, the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons; the soybean crushing plant operating rate was 54.22%, a 14.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast and a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The US soybean production forecast was 115.99 million tons, the same as the February forecast; Brazil's production forecast was 180 million tons, the same as the February forecast; Argentina's production forecast was 48 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast. In the March forecast, the US export volume forecast remained at 42.86 million tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bearish for grain prices. The customs' relaxation of the inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is also bearish for meal prices. The subsequent price trend depends on the soybean import arrival rhythm and the progress of the US - Iran event. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [10]. Oils - **Market Information**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil, and their derivative production enterprises are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) data showed that from March 1st to 15th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. The Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data showed that in January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and an 860,000 - ton increase year - on - year. According to the MPOB data, in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 90,000 - ton increase year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 130,000 - ton increase year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 1.19 million - ton increase year - on - year. AmSpec data showed that from March 1st to 20th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.166 million tons, a 49.6% increase from the same period of the previous month. ITS data showed that from March 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.191 million tons, a 38.1% increase from the same period of the previous month. According to the Indian Refiners Association (SEA) data, as of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a 120,000 - ton increase from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. As of the week of March 20th, the domestic sample data of the three major oil inventories was 1.95 million tons, a 95,000 - ton decrease year - on - year [12]. - **Strategy**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation leads to a significant drop in international oil prices, which is bearish for oil prices. It is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 3.29 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 3.1 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.07 yuan to 3.18 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion was average, and the participation sentiment in some areas improved. It is expected that the short - term national egg prices may be stable or increase [15]. - **Strategy**: Although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. The idea is to short on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally continued to decline, with small increases in some low - price areas. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.13 yuan to 9.58 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.07 yuan to 9.44 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.04 yuan to 8.91 yuan per kilogram. The market transaction enthusiasm was average, and it was difficult for farmers to sell pigs. It is expected that some regions may still have the intention to reduce prices today, and some low - price areas in the south may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply is in a concentrated realization period while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increase in the medium term is still poor. With more regions having prices below 10 yuan and piglets' prices falling in the peak season, panic spreads, driving the futures price to decline rapidly. The short - term spot market still lacks factors to break the negative cycle, and the near - term contracts may remain weak. Although there are more differences in the far - term contracts after the valuation has moved down, the production capacity has not been significantly reduced, and the basis for price increase under the premium situation is still insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see for now [19].

Report Overview - The report is the morning report of Guoxin Guozheng Futures on March 24, 2026, covering multiple futures varieties [1] Index Futures - On March 23, the three major A - share indexes weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.63% to 3813.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.76% to 13345.51 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.49% to 3235.22 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 23, closing at 4418.00, a decrease of 149.02 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 23, the weighted index of coke oscillated stronger, closing at 1867.8, a rise of 117.3 compared to the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 23, closing at 1323.6 yuan, a rise of 122.3 compared to the previous day [3] - Coke: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory changes little, and the purchasing willingness of traders slightly improves [4] - Coking coal: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1461 vehicles. The resumption of work in coal mines is good, the weekly production level continues to rise slightly, the spot auction transactions within the week are good, and the transaction price has increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the inventory at the production end has decreased slightly [4] - Policy: According to the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline, by 2030, China's comprehensive energy production capacity will reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal. Coal will play a long - term role in ensuring energy security and economic stability [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. Affected by the rise of US sugar on Friday and the increase in spot quotes in the morning, the futures price oscillated higher, and then oscillated lower due to the sharp decline in the stock market. At night, it oscillated lower due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [5] - From January to February 2026, China's imports of syrup and white sugar premixed powder were 830,000 tons and 592,000 tons respectively, an increase of 75,000 tons and 266,000 tons year - on - year. The total import volume was 1.422 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons or 31% year - on - year [7] Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, the Shanghai Rubber oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. At night, it oscillated and rose slightly due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [7] - In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased 1.2% year - on - year to 14.03 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the import of truck and bus tires decreased 4.1% year - on - year and 3.4% month - on - month to 4.72 million [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on March 23, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1164.5 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.34%. As of the week of March 19, the US soybean export inspection was 1,101,730 tons, in line with market expectations. The export inspection volume to China was 664,967 tons, accounting for 60.36% of the total inspection volume. As of last Thursday, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 68%, behind 80% of the same period last year [7] - In the domestic market on March 23, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 3007 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.73%. With the relaxation of the inspection of weeds and pests on imported Brazilian soybeans in China, it is expected that many soybeans stranded at ports will complete customs clearance one after another. After the soybean inventory of oil mills is replenished, the soybean meal production will remain high, and the tight supply situation of soybean meal will be alleviated [7] Live Pigs - On March 21, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The slaughter plan of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month, the slaughter rhythm accelerated significantly, the market supply was sufficient, and the sales were active. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs was loose. On the demand side, it is in the seasonal off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices. Although frozen product segmentation warehousing and some secondary fattening have formed a certain bottom - support, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of strong supply and weak demand as a whole [7] Palm Oil - On March 23, benefiting from the rise of crude oil prices over the weekend, the palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated stronger. The main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9960, the lowest price was 9650, and the closing price was 9942, a rise of 2.31% compared to the previous trading day [8] - As of March 20, 2026 (the 12th week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 808,200 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons or 4.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 419,900 tons or 108.14% compared to 388,300 tons of the same period last year [8] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 94,510, reached a high of 94,740, a low of 91,500, and closed at 92,100, with a settlement price of 92,870. The trading volume was 215,827 lots, and the open interest was 204,413 lots. Macro - suppression: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar suppress commodities. The fundamentals are weak: High smelting operation rate, increased imports, and rising bonded - area inventory; the demand in the "Golden March" is lower than expected, and the spot premium has narrowed. The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper is 93,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2,700 yuan per ton; the premium to CU2605 is 120 - 160 yuan per ton [8] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 15,316 yuan per ton at night on March 23. The cotton inventory decreased by 16 lots compared to the previous trading day. Entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", downstream textile enterprises purchase as they use [8] Iron Ore - On March 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 819 yuan. The iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the demand for molten iron from steel mills' resumption of production increased, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - On March 23, the main contract of asphalt 2606 oscillated and rose, with a rise of 4.27% and a closing price of 4661 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, the inventory increased slightly, the downstream demand has not started, the refinery's shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825 on March 23, with a low of 819, a high of 832, and a closing price of 822, with an increase of 702 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8][9] Steel - On March 23, rb2605 closed at 3154 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3330 yuan per ton. The military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on March 23 entered the 24th day, and the transportation interruption in the Strait of Hormuz continued, and high oil prices will last longer. On the one hand, the energy substitution effect is strengthened, the shipping cost rises, and the prices of black - series raw fuels are pushed up. On the other hand, the global inflation expectation heats up, the liquidity tightens, the risk - aversion sentiment spreads, and the global economic growth is impacted. In the short term, driven by high costs, steel prices may oscillate stronger [9] Alumina - On March 23, ao2605 closed at 3093 yuan per ton. On the supply side, the new production capacity is being put into operation at an accelerated pace. The 1.2 million - ton project of Guangxi Long'an Hetai will be put into trial production in April, and another new production capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of March. Coupled with the high arrival volume of imported alumina from March to April (about 250,000 tons per month on average), the subsequent supply pressure is becoming increasingly prominent, which will effectively suppress the upward space of prices. On the demand side, the consumption improvement space is limited, and the spot trading atmosphere is average. Although the slight recovery of downstream consumption and the firmness of the spot provide a bottom support for alumina, the commissioning of new projects in many places and the increase in raw material arrivals have established the expectation of loose supply [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On March 23, al2605 closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. On the macro - level, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. The US threatens to expand attacks on Iran's power generation facilities, and Iran responds firmly. The inflation risk caused by geopolitics intensifies, further leading to a collapse in demand and a shrinkage in investment. The market sentiment of trading recession remains. The precious metals and non - ferrous metal markets continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of Guinea's bauxite export policy. On the supply side of the fundamentals, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory inflection point. On the demand side, the receiving situation continues to improve. The absolute price has dropped to an ideal range, and downstream and terminal buyers increase their purchases at low prices, which continues to strengthen the support for the spot [10]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 10, 2026 - A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to 4123.14 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.04% to 14354.07 points, and the Chi - Next Index rose 3.04% to 3306.14 points. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 24170 billion yuan, a decrease of 2539 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4674.76, a rise of 59.3 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - **Coke**: The weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1693.9, a decline of 75.3. Port coke spot prices rose, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1480 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Steel mills mainly purchase on - demand [2][4]. - **Coking Coal**: The weighted index was range - bound, closing at 1147.0 yuan, a decline of 45.0. Some coal prices in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia rose. Supply is sufficient, and some coke enterprises have implemented production restrictions [3][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract P2605 closed at 9462, a decline of 2.65%. Malaysia's February palm oil production, exports decreased, imports increased, and inventory decreased [6]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract 2604 oscillated and declined, with a decline of 4.78% to 3746 yuan. As refineries resume production, asphalt prices may follow oil prices [7]. 2.2 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: Affected by the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the US sugar rose on Monday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated downwards on Tuesday and then slightly rose at night. India's sugar production forecast for 2025 - 26 was cut by 4.4% [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.59% to 1203.25 cents/bushel. The domestic main contract M2605 rose 1.24% to 3010 yuan/ton. China's 1 - 2 month soybean imports decreased 7.8% year - on - year [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The main contract LH2605 closed at 11180 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15510 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory increased by 303 lots [7]. 2.3 Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.66% to 101520 yuan/ton. Spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. Supply is tight, and demand is expected to improve in the "Golden March and Silver April" [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract 2605 oscillated and closed up 0.26% to 784 yuan. Shipping decreased, arrivals increased, and prices are in an oscillatory trend [7]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract was at 3104 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract was at 3256 yuan/ton. Steel mills' production resumption is slow, demand recovery is mild, and costs support is weakening [7]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2839 yuan/ton. Demand is supported by high - start electrolytic aluminum, but supply pressure is increasing [7]. - **Aluminum**: The al2604 contract was at 24880 yuan/ton. Supply is stable, inventory pressure is rising, and demand is weak [7][8]. 2.4 Others - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday and oscillated at night. Inventory in Qingdao increased slightly [4][6]. - **Log**: The 2605 main contract closed at 791.5, with 1079 lots of position reduction. Some spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable or decreased. 1 - 2 month imports decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [7]. 3. Outlook and Suggestions - **Soybean Meal**: Track South American weather, Middle - East situation, and soybean arrival rhythm [6]. - **Live Pigs**: Pay attention to the culling progress of sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and terminal consumption recovery [6]. - **Copper**: Focus on "Golden March" consumption and inventory reduction, as well as geopolitical risks and capital movements [7]. - **Log**: Monitor spot prices, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, the A-share market showed wide - amplitude fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, while trading volume increased. The performance of various futures varieties was affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, cost changes, and supply - demand relationships [1]. - The prices of some commodities like coal and oil were affected by the Iran conflict, which in turn influenced related futures prices. For example, the prices of coke,焦煤, and crude oil rose, while the prices of some other commodities showed different trends [2][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 9, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated widely. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% to 4096.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74% to 14067.50 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.64% to 3208.58 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 451.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Commodity Futures - **Coke and Coking Coal**: On March 9, the coke weighted index closed at 1750.8, up 64.7; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1190.2 yuan, up 60.1. The cost of coking coal has loosened, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up of coking enterprises is expected to increase. However, the oversupply problem restricts the price elasticity [2][3][4]. - **Crude Oil**: Due to the Iran conflict, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil both exceeded $100 per barrel on March 9 [5]. - **Steel**: The escalation of the Gulf situation has a limited direct impact but a significant indirect impact on China's steel exports. Short - term monthly exports are affected by about 1.1624 million tons. If the situation lasts for more than 3 months, there is a risk of losing the Middle - East market share. Steel prices may be strong in the short term due to the rise in global energy prices and the recovery of domestic demand [5][8]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as the sharp rise in crude oil prices and the significant increase in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose on March 9. There may be a supply gap in the global sugar market in 2025/26 and 2026/27 [5]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated widely on March 9, rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The US tire imports increased in 2025, and the predicted total tire shipments in 2026 will increase [6]. - **Palm Oil**: On March 9, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the palm oil futures price was at the daily limit for most of the trading time. As of March 6, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China increased [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Internationally, the CBOT soybean main contract fell 0.46% on March 9. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main M2605 contract rose 2.74%. The situation in the Middle - East and the delay in Brazilian soybean harvesting support the price of soybean meal [6]. - **Live Pigs**: On March 9, the live pig main contract LH2605 rose 0.36%. The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main 2604 contract fell 0.59% on March 9. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased, and the spot market sentiment was weak [6]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15245 yuan/ton on the night of March 9. The cotton inventory increased, and the short - fiber price rose as the market entered the peak sales season [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 2.28% on March 9. The iron ore shipment continued to recover, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a high level. The iron ore price was in a volatile trend in the short term [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2604 main contract rose 8.99% on March 9. As refineries gradually resumed production, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate and shipment volume increased, and the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. - **Log**: The log 2605 main contract opened at 801, with a minimum of 801, a maximum of 818, and closed at 802.5 on March 9, with an increase of 272 lots in positions [7]. - **Alumina**: On March 9, the ao2605 contract closed at 2905 yuan/ton. The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz has increased the cost of imported bauxite, and the supply - demand imbalance in the short term supports the price increase, but the over - supply problem has not been fundamentally reversed [8]. - **Aluminum**: On March 9, the al2604 contract closed at 24950 yuan/ton. The market is worried about the impact of the Middle - East situation on aluminum production capacity. The supply is stable, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 13 - On February 13, the last trading day before the long - holiday, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26% to 4082.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.28% to 14100.19 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.57% to 3275.96 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1999.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 161.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on February 23, closing at 4660.41, a decrease of 59.17 from the previous period [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - On February 13, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1687.6, a rise of 17.3 from the previous period. The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1134.7 yuan, a decrease of 2.0 from the previous period [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, and daily production has a slight decline. Coke inventory has a small increase, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron is at a low - season level, and steel profit is average. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1179 vehicles. The output of coking coal mines has a small increase. The spot auction transaction is inversely proportional to the price fluctuations of the futures. Under the influence of volatile futures prices, the transaction price mainly shows a small decline, and the terminal inventory has a large increase. The total inventory of coking coal has a large increase, and the production - end inventory has a slight increase. The winter - storage demand is coming to an end [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price has been oscillating upward recently. Excessive rainfall in major sugar - producing states in India may lead to a decline in sugarcane production, which may limit India's sugar exports. During the long - holiday, the US sugar price oscillated upward. Brazil's geographical and statistical institute expects the sugarcane planting area in 2026 to be 9.495363 million hectares, the same as last month's forecast and a 0.7% decrease from the previous year. The sugarcane output is estimated to be 706.96119 million tons, the same as last month's forecast and a 0.6% increase from the previous year. Five trading houses estimate that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 market year (ending in September) will be between 28.5 - 29 million tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - During the long - holiday, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price oscillated upward. ANRPC indicates that with the accelerated growth of the automobile industry in emerging and developed economies, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The global natural rubber production increased by 1.4% in 2025 and is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026. During the long - holiday, the Japanese rubber price oscillated upward [5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - During the Spring Festival, the main contract of CBOT soybeans showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation. Multiple positive factors such as China's commitment to purchase more US soybeans, dry weather in some parts of Argentina, a record - high soybean crushing volume in the US in January, and the EPA's plan to submit a biodiesel blending quota proposal for 2026 have boosted the US soybean price. Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and a bumper harvest is certain, with export expectations at a historical high. The USDA Outlook Forum expects the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season to increase to 85 million acres, indicating a long - term loose supply. In the domestic market, oil mills are gradually resuming work after the festival, the operating rate is rising, port soybean inventory is abundant, and soybean supply is loose. The soybean arrival volume from February to March will increase compared with the previous period, and the subsequent crushing volume will gradually rise, resulting in a generally loose supply of soybean meal. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America and the soybean arrival volume [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - After the festival, large - sized pigs are being concentratedly sold in the market, and the back - logged pig sources are continuously released, resulting in a generally loose supply. As of the end of January, the inventory of fertile sows in the country reached 39.58 million, slightly decreasing month - on - month but still at a relatively high level year - on - year, which supports sufficient supply. The improvement in breeding efficiency further amplifies the effective supply. After the festival, pork consumption has officially entered the off - season. The previous pickling and stocking are all over, and the household holiday stock has not been digested yet. The fresh - meat market's digestion capacity has declined, and it has entered the annual off - season. The demand side has weak support for the market. It is recommended to focus on the reduction progress of fertile sows and the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - During the long - holiday, the outer - market Malaysian palm oil maintained a range - bound oscillation, rising 2.88% compared with the pre - festival closing price. According to SPPOMA data, from February 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 23.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 22.24% month - on - month. According to ITS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 20 was 863,358 tons, a decrease of 8.9% compared with the same period last month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - During the 2026 Spring Festival, the Shanghai copper market was closed from February 14 to February 23. On February 13, the main contract closed at 100,380 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 100,780 yuan/ton, in the range of 99,400 - 102,350 yuan/ton, with a position of 140,000 and a trading volume of 140,000. The outer - market LME copper showed a V - shaped oscillation, first falling and then rising, in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 US dollars/ton. At the beginning of the holiday, the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on the price; at the end of the holiday, the expectation of Asian resumption of work and the tight supply supported the price to rebound, with a slight increase compared with the pre - festival price. The domestic main contract had no trading and no position change during the holiday, and the price was anchored to the outer - market and the expectation of resumption of work. The global copper mine is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee is at a low level, which provides bottom support. The inventory accumulation during the domestic holiday is limited. Before the holiday, there was profit - taking at a high level, and the low liquidity during the holiday amplified the outer - market fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream resumption - of - work rhythm, LME/bonded inventory, and the Fed's policy signals [5]. 2.8 Cotton - Before the festival, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,740 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 143 lots compared with the previous trading day. Internationally, the US cotton price rose, and the weekly line closed in the positive [6]. 2.9 Iron Ore - Before the festival, affected by the low profit rate of steel mills and weak demand, the growth rate of molten iron was slow. After the festival, the resumption of work of steel mills may drive the replenishment demand for raw materials, and the iron ore supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.10 Asphalt - Currently, the asphalt supply is seasonally shrinking, refineries are operating at a low load, and the terminal demand is weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term asphalt price is oscillating [6]. 2.11 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 787 on Friday, with a minimum of 785, a maximum of 791.5, and closed at 779.5, with a daily increase in positions of 242 lots. On February 13, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Although the outer - market price has increased, the domestic spot market was stable before the festival, and the situation needs to be verified after the festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - market sentiment on the price [6]. 2.12 Steel - After the festival, the demand will gradually recover and is unlikely to explode suddenly. With the convening of important meetings, the positive macro - policy expectations are released, and the market sentiment is warming up. Coupled with the rigid - demand replenishment of terminal enterprises after resuming work, the main task of the market before the Two Sessions is to digest the social inventory. Mid - to - late March is the real demand verification period and the key point of the market [6]. 2.13 Alumina - The market was relatively stable during the Spring Festival. Before the festival, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly, and the supply improved marginally. After the festival, attention should be paid to the production - start and production - reduction efforts. However, limited by the limited demand increase and the unopened export window, the overall inventory is still accumulating, and the industry supply - demand situation is still in excess. If the supply side fails to continue to shrink, alumina will still be in a weak situation [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - In 2026, the supply - side changes of global electrolytic aluminum are significantly disturbed. The planned new production capacity in Indonesia, India and other places exceeds 2 million tons, but the production - start process is slow due to disturbances in power costs, infrastructure, etc. The domestic production capacity utilization rate is close to saturation, and the room for further production increase is limited. In the short term, the supply - demand situation will remain in a tight - balance state, which may continue to support the aluminum price. The demand side is expected to be stable and improving. Aluminum has strong financial and macro - attributes, and the pressure effect of the off - peak and peak seasons on the fundamentals is weakened. The aluminum price will generally remain at a high level, with a wider fluctuation range, and the seasonality and regularity may be weakened [6].

Report Summary on February 4, 2026 1. Market Performance on February 3, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.29% to 4067.74, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.19% to 14127.11, and ChiNext Index up 1.86% to 3324.89. The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 25,658 billion yuan, a decrease of 411 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 index stopped falling and fluctuated, closing at 4660.11, up 54.13 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke**: The weighted index of coke had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1718.7, down 2.2. The first - round price increase was fully implemented, with general coking profits, slightly decreased daily production, and a small increase in inventory. Traders' purchasing willingness may improve [2][4]. - **Coking Coal**: The weighted index of coking coal had an interval consolidation, closing at 1176.6 yuan, down 2.1. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 913 vehicles. Coking coal mine output slightly increased, but spot auction transactions gradually declined. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory of coking coal rose sharply [3][4]. 2.2 Sugar - The US sugar had a slight decline after a large short - term drop due to technical reasons. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fell on February 3 due to lower spot prices and rose slightly at night. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, a 18.35% increase from the same period last year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - The Shanghai rubber market had a slight increase after a large short - term drop due to technical reasons and continued to rise at night driven by the stabilization and rebound of the non - ferrous metal market. As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 59.17 million tons, a 1.23% increase from the previous period [4]. 2.4 Soybean and Bean Meal - Brazilian soybean is in the early harvest period, and institutions have raised the production outlook. Stonex expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 181.6 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the January forecast. The domestic bean meal 2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton on February 3, down 0.84%. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the downstream demand is declining, with inventory accumulating again. As of the end of the 54th week of 2026, the bean meal inventory was 94.7 million tons, an increase of 4.02 million tons from the previous week [6]. 2.5 Livestock (Pig) - The main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11,600 yuan/ton on February 3, down 0.3%. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter window is narrowing, and farmers may sell pigs in advance, increasing the supply. The pre - festival demand provides limited support. In the medium term, the high inventory of sows and piglet replenishment will ensure future supply, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil market continued to fluctuate weakly after a high - level decline on February 3, with the decline easing. The main contract P2605 closed at 9094, up 0.89%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31, 2026, were 1.375718 million tons, a 14.89% increase from the previous month. As of January 30, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 70.14 million tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week and a 43.00% increase from the same period last year [6]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper had a deep V - shaped reversal. Driven by policy support (expanding strategic copper reserves), a weak US dollar, and rising LME copper prices, the market sentiment improved. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the terminal demand is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum al2603 closed at 23,035 yuan/ton on February 3. The market is evaluating the new Fed chairman candidate's monetary policy, which is currently bearish for the metal market. The supply is stable, and the social inventory is high. The demand is improving slightly, but the negative feedback from small and medium - sized factories is strengthening [7]. 2.8 Other Commodities - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 fell 1.14% to 777.5 yuan on February 3. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic arrival volume also increased slightly. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the short - term price will fluctuate [6]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan on February 3. The refinery's production plan in February decreased slightly, and the market demand was weak in the off - season, so the price will fluctuate [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,660 yuan/ton at night on February 3. The inventory increased by 75 lots. Textile enterprises' pre - festival replenishment willingness is low, and about 80% of the US cotton - producing areas are in drought as of January 27 [7]. - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 closed at 801 on February 3, with a decrease of 169 lots. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The port's coniferous log inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks [7]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3265 yuan/ton on February 3. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand is decreasing, and the market activity is low. The steel price will fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2809 yuan/ton on February 3. Some alumina plants in Shanxi, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Henan have reduced production, which supports the futures price to some extent. However, the overall oversupply situation remains, and the price is under pressure [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 30, the A-share market showed a mixed trend with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27%, and the trading volume decreased by 397 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The prices of various futures products, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, etc., were affected by different factors such as market supply - demand, international production, and macro - market sentiment [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3346.36, up 1.27%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.8627 trillion yuan, a decrease of 397 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on January 30, closing at 4706.34, a decrease of 47.53 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 30, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1723.6, up 21.3 from the previous day [2] - The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation on January 30, closing at 1163.8 yuan, up 14.7 from the previous day [3] - The first - round increase in coke prices has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. The iron - water production decreased slightly this period, and the export volume in December increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4] - The output of sample mines of coking coal declined, the port inventory of Mongolian coal was about 4 million tons with high pressure, and China's annual import of coking coal in 2025 decreased year - on - year [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Indian Sugar Trade Association expects India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season to increase by 13% to 29.6 million tons, but the export volume will still be below the quota of 800,000 tons. Affected by this, the US sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures declined [4] Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and slightly declined on January 30. The inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber changed accordingly [4] Soybean Meal - In the international market, Argentina's soybean crops are facing a potential yield reduction due to high - temperature drought, while Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the USDA expects a high - yield of 178 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal price is under pressure, and the futures price lacks a continuous upward drive [5] Live Pigs - On January 30, the live - pig futures contract LH2603 closed at 11,220 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change [5] Shanghai Copper - On January 30, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2603 closed at 103,680 yuan/ton. The market was affected by factors such as short - selling by the top 20 short - position holders, weak downstream procurement, and pre - festival risk aversion [5] Iron Ore - On January 30, the iron - ore futures contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 791.5 yuan. With an increase in Australian and Brazilian iron - ore supply, a decrease in domestic arrivals, and slow pre - festival restocking by steel mills, the iron - ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On January 30, the asphalt futures contract 2603 closed down 0.38% at 3424 yuan. In February, the refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and the price is in a volatile state supported by cost [5] Logs - The logs futures contract 2603 opened at 789, closed at 798 on January 30, with a decrease of 125 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [5][6][7] Cotton - On January 30, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,770 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 46 lots. As of January 29, the cotton procurement rate was 99%, and textile enterprises purchased as needed [7] Steel - Before the Spring Festival, steel prices fluctuated slightly due to a lack of industrial contradictions and weak speculative demand. After the Spring Festival, the market still faces pressure, but policy expectations may provide some support [7] Alumina - The supply of alumina may decrease slightly during the holiday due to production shutdowns and maintenance, while the demand remains stable as electrolytic aluminum production capacity stays high [7] Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of Shanghai aluminum remains stable as the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is good and production capacity is high. However, demand is weak due to the off - season and pre - holiday factors, and social inventory is increasing [7]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 26, 2026 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 4132.61, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.85% to 14316.64, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.91% to 3319.15. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 328.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.27 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Stock Indices: The CSI 300 index fluctuated slightly, closing at 4706.96, up 4.47 [2]. - Futures: - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1721.1, up 7.4 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated slightly and closed at 1166.2 yuan, up 15.8 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly lower due to the decline of US sugar on Friday and stable spot prices. At night, it continued to decline slightly under short - selling pressure [4]. - Rubber: Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted due to large short - term gains. At night, it continued to fluctuate and closed slightly lower [4]. - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1060 cents per bushel, down 0.7%. The domestic soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2768 yuan per ton, down 0.65% [5]. - Live Pigs: The live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11465 yuan per ton, down 0.86% [5]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures price continued to rise with increased positions, breaking through the 9000 integer mark. The main contract P2605 closed at 9092, up 2.04% [5]. - Shanghai Copper: The Shanghai copper closed at 101880 yuan per ton, with an opening price of 102800, a high of 103880, a low of 101760, and a settlement price of 102760 [5]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14580 yuan per ton at night, with an increase of 172 lots in inventory [5]. - Logs: The log 2603 main contract opened at 779.5, with a low of 773, a high of 779.5, and closed at 776, with a decrease of 1129 lots in positions [5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed down 0.95% at 784.5 yuan [7]. - Asphalt: The asphalt 2603 main contract fluctuated and rose 1.39% to close at 3279 yuan [7]. - Steel: The rb2605 closed at 3143 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3302 yuan per ton [7]. - Alumina: The ao2605 closed at 2732 yuan per ton [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2603 closed at 24215 yuan per ton [7]. 2. Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The expectation of the first - round price increase is strengthening, with wet - quenched coke expected to increase by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton. Iron production increased slightly, but the recovery was limited due to previous accidents [4]. - Coking Coal: Mines resumed production after the Spring Festival, and the output of sample mines rebounded, with the pre - holiday output expected to have peaked. Mongolian coal port transactions were average, and the port inventory exceeded 3.9 million tons. In 2025, China's total import of coking coal was 118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. In December 2025, the import volume was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% but a year - on - year increase of 28.57%. In 2025, China's total export of coke was 794.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.53%. In December 2025, the export volume was 1.0045 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39.95% and a year - on - year increase of 80.18% [4]. Soybean Meal - International: The US soybean export sales reached a record high this year, but the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was lower than the five - year average, and the dry weather in southern Argentina raised concerns about crop conditions. - Domestic: The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills exceeded 2 million tons, increasing soybean meal output. Pre - holiday stocking demand started, but the soybean meal futures price lacked continuous upward momentum due to expected sufficient post - holiday soybean supply. It is recommended to track South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - Supply: The slaughter rhythm of farmers accelerated. Although the monthly slaughter plan of group pig enterprises decreased, the actual slaughter level remained high, and many large - scale pig enterprises cut prices to sell. Some farmers may advance the February slaughter to January. - Demand: Southern pickling is coming to an end, reducing the demand for large pigs. Cold snap boosted pork consumption, and pre - holiday stocking started, but the medium - term supply pressure remains high. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the actual demand during the peak season [5]. Palm Oil - High - frequency data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 25, 2026, compared to the same period last month, with an increase of 7.97% according to AmSpec and 9.97% according to ITS [5]. Shanghai Copper - Macro expectations are positive, and the low TC of the ore end and tight inventory support the cost. However, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs before the Spring Festival, and the consumption off - season restricts price elasticity. Speculative sentiment is restricted by a 10% margin and an 8% price limit [5]. Logs - The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7]. Iron Ore - The shipments from Australia and Brazil and domestic arrivals decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, and iron production increased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - The overall refinery supply remains low, and the inventory accumulates slightly but is controllable. The demand is weak due to cold weather. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the supply - demand balance and healthy inventory support the price. However, the winter storage policies of steel mills will affect market sentiment and speculative demand, causing short - term price fluctuations. The price of construction steel will be adjusted in the context of weakening terminal demand [7]. Alumina - The operating capacity remains high, but the low spot price deteriorates corporate profits. Some alumina plants in Guizhou may conduct pre - maintenance. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited. The spot market has strong sales, with active morning trading and cautious afternoon trading [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, and the demand shows signs of stabilization. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has rebounded slightly, but the inventory continues to accumulate, and the demand for molten aluminum is still weak. The aluminum price is expected to consolidate in the short term [7].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On January 23, the three major A-share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 4136.16 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.79% to 14439.66 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% to 3349.50 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3118.4 billion yuan, an increase of 401.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted and consolidated on January 23, closing at 4702.50, a decrease of 21.21 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 23, the weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1724.1, an increase of 43.3 from the previous day [2]. - On January 23, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1163.3 yuan, an increase of 32.0 from the previous day [3]. - For coke, the spot market price at ports is stable. Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, and the cost support is still strong. However, due to the off - season of terminal consumption, steel mills' shipments are weak, and their demand for coke is low [4]. - For coking coal, the price of some coals has changed. The supply is gradually recovering, and the downstream demand has some support, but the procurement enthusiasm of some enterprises has slowed down [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The 2025/26 global sugar production is expected to reach 189.3 million tons, a strong increase from 180.97 million tons in 2024/25. Affected by this, the US sugar fluctuated lower last Friday. Speculators continued to increase their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options [4]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term increase, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher on the night of January 22. As of January 23, the inventory and futures warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber have changed [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 23, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1067.5 cents per bushel, an increase of 0.33% from the previous day. Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the export volume is expected to be large. Domestically, the main contract of soybean meal M2505 closed at 2751 yuan/ton on January 23, a decrease of 0.61% from the previous day. The inventory decline provides some support for the price [5]. Live Pigs - On January 23, the main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13%. The supply pressure is increasing in the short term, and the demand has some support, but the medium - term supply pressure is still large [5]. Palm Oil - On January 23, the palm oil futures price showed a profit - taking trend during the day but jumped up at night. The main contract P2605 closed above 9000 yuan for the first time since October last year. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will launch an official reference price for used cooking oil in Q1 2026 [5]. Shanghai Copper - On the night of January 22, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 102830 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 2.21%, hitting a recent high. The futures are stronger than the spot. The tight supply at the mine end, good macro - data, and a weak US dollar boost the price [5]. Iron Ore - On January 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.21%, closing at 795 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil and domestic arrivals have decreased, and the port inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is in a volatile trend [5]. Asphalt - On January 23, the main contract of asphalt 2603 fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.68%, closing at 3236 yuan. The refinery supply is low, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is in a volatile trend [6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 771, with a low of 767, a high of 779.5, and closed at 776 on January 23, with a reduction of 3311 lots. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [6]. Cotton - On the night of January 22, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14590 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 28 lots. Textile enterprises are cautious in replenishing raw materials [6]. Steel - The central bank's loose monetary policy provides some support for industrial product prices. However, the steel market needs further implementation of industry - stabilizing policies to improve the supply - demand relationship. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for steel is expected to decline, and the inventory is accumulating [6]. Alumina - The supply of raw materials is increasing, and the price of bauxite is showing a slight weakening trend. The domestic alumina supply is still in excess, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand is stable [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of alumina is at a low level, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The aluminum price is affected by macro - expectations and remains high [6].