Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market had a minor correction on August 1, 2025, with reduced trading volume. Futures prices of various commodities showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1][2]. - The markets of different commodities are in various situations. For example, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the demand for some commodities is affected by the season and policies. Future trends depend on factors like policy implementation, weather conditions, and market sentiment [4][6]. Summary by Commodity Stock Index Futures - On August 1, the three major A-share indexes declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.17% to 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.24% to 2322.63 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1598.4 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 337.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 1, the coke weighted index was weakly volatile, closing at 1603.8, down 57.2. The coking coal weighted index also remained weak, closing at 1055.2 yuan, down 86.3 [2][3]. - Coke is in the fifth round of price increase with thin profits, and its daily production has slightly increased. The overall inventory continues to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is good. For coking coal, the total inventory has increased, but the production - end inventory has decreased significantly and is likely to continue to decline in the short term [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the weakening US economy and improved global supply, the US sugar price declined on August 1. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract had a slight decline at night on August 1. In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil increased by 15.07% year - on - year, reaching 3.406 million tons. India's net sugar production in 2025 - 26 is expected to increase to 30 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber futures had a slight decline at night on August 1. As of August 1, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2388 tons to 208426 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4390 tons to 177630 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 2319 tons to 43849 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2318 tons to 39716 tons [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the excellent rate of US soybeans is 70%, and the growing conditions are good. If the weather continues to cooperate, the expected increase in US soybean production will impact the global soybean supply - demand pattern. Brazil's soybean production in 2025/2026 is expected to reach 182.9 million tons, an increase of 9.4 million tons year - on - year. Domestically, on August 1, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated, and the main M2509 contract closed at 3010 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [5]. Live Pigs - On August 1, the live pig futures price continued to be weak, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14055 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The supply is stable, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and school holidays. The cost of feed has increased, reducing the expected profit of pig farming [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper price still has a slight downward pressure. The short - term support from the "anti - involution" has weakened, and the price will fluctuate more due to major macro - events next week. After the US tariff is implemented, the non - US supply will increase significantly in the second half of the year, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate between 76,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton [7]. Cotton - On the night of August 1, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13565 yuan/ton. On August 4, the base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 400 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 133 lots compared with the previous day [7]. Iron Ore - On August 1, the main 2509 contract of iron ore closed down 0.19% at 783 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory decreased. The iron water production declined, but it remained at a relatively high level. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On August 1, the main 2509 contract of asphalt closed down 0.19% at 3658 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, and the shipment volume increased. Although the rainfall still affects the demand, there is an expectation of demand recovery. The low inventory supports the price, and the short - term price will fluctuate [8]. Logs - On August 1, the log futures market showed high - level pressure. The 2509 contract opened at 822, with a low of 813, a high of 825, and closed at 821.5, with a reduction of 2321 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the spot trading is weak [8]. Steel - After the adjustment of the Politburo meeting's statement on "anti - involution", the market's expectation of overall low - price rectification and capacity reduction has cooled. However, the "anti - involution" and "stable growth" expectations still exist, and the steel demand in the off - season is okay. The short - term steel price will follow the market sentiment and fluctuate weakly [10]. Alumina - The raw material supply of alumina may be affected by events in Guinea and the rainy season, and the price is firm. Under the policy of capacity governance, the operating capacity and production growth rate of alumina may slow down. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is stable [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the upper limit. The production growth rate may slow down, but it will still maintain a high - level operation. The demand is weak due to the off - season and high prices, and the inventory is slightly increasing [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate index decreased by 449 yuan/ton to 71025 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 650 yuan/ton. The market trading activity has improved, but the future of mines in Jiangxi is uncertain [11][12].

Variety Views - On July 22, A-share's three major indexes continued to rise, hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3,581.86, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 11,099.83, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61% to 2,310.86. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.893 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4,118.96, up 33.35 [1] - On July 22, the weighted coke index remained strong, closing at 1,711.6, up 128.3. The weighted coking coal index also maintained its strength, closing at 1,084.9 yuan, up 94.5 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. After the first price increase by coke enterprises was implemented, they quickly initiated a second one. Coke enterprises are currently at the break-even point in production. The continuous rebound of coking coal prices has put pressure on coking enterprises, so they raised the price of coke, and steel mills have a relatively high willingness to accept it. The profitability rate of steel mills is maintained at around 60%, the profit of blast furnace rebar is about 200 yuan/ton, and the reduction of crude steel production has led to a rebound in steel prices, giving some room for the rebound of raw material prices [3] - The price of prime coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi (A10, S0.45, G70) was raised by 70 yuan to the ex-factory price of 1,210 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is running strongly. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port increased by 54 to 850 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 cleaned coal increased by 35 to 950 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the inventory of upstream coal mines has dropped to 3.3907 million tons, returning to a relatively reasonable level. Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, especially after the price increase, the enthusiasm of coal mines for production is high [3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate that the global sugar market may face a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season due to strong monsoons increasing production in India and Thailand. Affected by this and the failure of the futures price to break through the key technical level of 17 cents, long positions were liquidated, causing the US sugar price to fall sharply on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, long positions were liquidated, causing the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to decline on Tuesday. Due to short-selling pressure, the contract continued to decline slightly at night. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a month-on-month increase of about 70,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1,434.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%. In June 2025, China imported a total of 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total imports were 459,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 492,400 tons [3] Rubber - Heavy rainfall in the Thai rubber-producing area has raised concerns about supply, leading to continuous increases in Southeast Asian spot prices. Affected by this, short positions were liquidated, pushing up the Shanghai rubber futures price on Tuesday. Due to the large short-term increase, the price adjusted at night. In June 2025, China's rubber tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. From January to June, the production increased by 2% year-on-year to 591.668 million pieces. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 4.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [4][6] Palm Oil - On July 22, palm oil maintained a high-level wide-range oscillation, with the overall average price gradually increasing. The K-line closed as a positive line with a long upper shadow. The highest price of the day was 9,012, the lowest was 8,868, and it closed at 8,926, up 0.18% from the previous day. According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 to 20, 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 6.19% compared with the same period last month. United Plantations said that in the second quarter, the production of palm oil and palm kernels increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year-on-year respectively; the average price of palm oil increased by 5.6% to 4,361 Malaysian ringgit per ton [6] Shanghai Copper - The anti-involution trading in China continued, with strong long sentiment boosting the copper price. Technically, the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and the MACD and KDJ indicators all give bullish signals, providing support for price increases. On the supply side, the strike at a copper mine in Peru has raised concerns about supply, which also supports the copper price. However, attention should be paid to the increase in bonded warehouse inventories and the uncertainty of downstream demand. If the price fails to break through the resistance level of 81,200 yuan/ton, it may face a correction risk [7] Iron Ore - On July 22, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and rose, with a gain of 2.49%, closing at 823 yuan. The shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly this period, and the arrivals dropped significantly. The pig iron production stopped falling and rebounded to a high level again. Currently, the market sentiment is boosted by the anti-involution and the policy expectations of important meetings, and the short-term trend of iron ore prices will continue to oscillate slightly stronger [7] Asphalt - On July 22, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and fell, with a decline of 1.42%, closing at 3,609 yuan. Last week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased month-on-month. The low social inventory has led to an increase in the sales volume of refineries, and downstream demand has improved. Overall, it fluctuates narrowly following the cost of crude oil [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,235 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. On July 23, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 65 lots compared with the previous day. The growth period of cotton in Xinjiang this year is about 5 - 7 days earlier than last year [8] Logs - On July 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 843.5, with a minimum of 835, a maximum of 846.5, and closed at 838, with a daily reduction of 2,264 lots. After reaching a four-month high of 856.5, the market declined, with increased trading volume and significant position reduction, increasing market pressure. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 4-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply-demand relationship, and spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, and the support of macro expectations for the spot market [8] Steel - On July 22, rb2510 closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,477 yuan/ton. Currently, the favorable factors in the industrial aspect of "anti-involution" and "promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" are being traded again in the market. The trading logic of the black chain has switched to the dual-drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, coupled with the support of real estate policies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a work plan for stabilizing the growth of the steel industry. Attention should be paid to the matching degree between the marginal change of pig iron production and the implementation rhythm of policies [9] Alumina - On July 22, ao2509 closed at 3,513 yuan/ton. The bullish sentiment in the market mainly comes from three aspects: the continuous fermentation of the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, the limited supply of spot goods in the market, and the extremely low inventory in delivery warehouses; and the strong support from the demand side due to the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. In terms of trading, although the inquiries from spot-futures traders for hedging purposes are active, due to the tight supply of spot goods and the quotes of holders not meeting the expectations of buyers, actual transactions are limited. Most holders choose to postpone sales and adopt a wait-and-see attitude [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 22, al2509 closed at 20,900 yuan/ton. In China, a new plan for stabilizing the growth of the non-ferrous metal industry is about to be released, providing support for copper and aluminum. The world's largest hydropower project has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. During the off-season of consumption, the amount of ingot casting has increased, and the recent arrival of spot goods in the market has increased, replenishing market supply. The increase in aluminum prices has significantly suppressed consumption, highlighting the weakness of actual terminal demand, and there is still pressure for aluminum ingot inventory accumulation [10]

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various soft commodities show different trends, and the influencing factors include supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - economic factors. The investment strategies for different commodities mainly include waiting and seeing, intraday trading, or taking appropriate positions at low prices [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices pulled back today. The basis of domestic cotton spot sales was firm, and spot trading was average. The rise in Zhengzhou cotton was due to tight commercial cotton inventories and the possibility of a soft squeeze. Cotton yarn prices rose, but market trading did not improve significantly. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 2829800 tons, a decrease of 628900 tons from the end of May. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, rainfall in the main producing areas in the second half of June affected the sugarcane harvest, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392300 tons; imported syrup and premixed powder was 115500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increase in production this year, due to the fast sales pace, inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. It is expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples were on the market, and cold - storage apple prices weakened. The demand for apples was low due to the large supply of seasonal fruits and hot weather. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&MR rose slightly, and BR rose significantly. The domestic prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continued to rise. The global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded last week. The downstream demand improved, the rubber supply increased, the natural rubber inventory increased, and the synthetic rubber inventory decreased. The market sentiment improved, and there were potential policy benefits. The strategy is to go long on rebounds [5] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2181000 tons, a 0.2 - million - ton increase from the previous period. China's pulp imports in June were still relatively high. Currently, the import inventory is high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [6] Timber - The futures price continued to rebound, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of 13 ports in China was 62400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 6.12%. The total port inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70000 cubic meters. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand timber will remain low, but domestic demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On Thursday (July 17), China's A-share market saw all three major indices rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5394 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index strengthened in a volatile manner, closing at 4,034.49, up 27.29 points [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 17, the weighted index of coke showed strength, closing at 1,526.5, up 15.0 points. The weighted index of coking coal regained strength, closing at 935.1 yuan, up 16.5 yuan. In the coke market, the spot price at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. Mainstream steel mills accepted the first price increase proposed by coke enterprises, but coke enterprises were still operating at a loss, with cautious raw material procurement and squeezed production inventory. In the coking coal market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi, increased by 40 yuan to 1,300 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with the price of Meng 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising by 3 yuan to 785 yuan/ton. Domestic coal mines were gradually resuming production, and the three major ports resumed customs clearance on July 16 after a 5 - day closure, but customs clearance was expected to remain low due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia until July 21 [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar futures closed slightly lower in a narrow - range oscillation on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract strengthened on Thursday with the support of funds and continued to rise slightly in the night session. ICRA predicted that the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in India would see a sugar production of 34 million tons, a 15% increase from the previous season's 29.6 million tons [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand affected rubber tapping, leading to a decrease in raw material supply and an increase in Southeast Asian spot prices. The Shanghai rubber futures rose on Thursday and continued to rise in the night session due to the increase in tire factory operating rates and speculation on weather conditions. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, up 2.34 percentage points week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, up 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 11.8% year - on - year, and in June, exports increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [3]. Soybean Meal - On July 17, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to technical buying. The US Department of Agriculture reported that the net increase in US soybean export sales in the week ending July 10 was 271,900 tons, a 46% decrease from the previous week. The good weather in US soybean - growing areas reduced the risk of yield reduction, posing a resistance to price increases. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures were strong on July 17. The high arrival volume of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates led to large soybean meal production, but feed and breeding enterprises' purchases were limited, increasing the supply pressure in the spot market. However, the increase in US soybean prices and Brazilian soybean CNF premiums would support the price from the import cost side [4]. Live Pigs - On July 17, the main live pig futures contract LH2509 closed at 14,060 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. High - temperature weather increased the risk of pig diseases, leading to more active selling by farmers. The terminal market was in the off - season, with weak demand. The stable recovery of the sow inventory indicated medium - to - long - term supply pressure, and the pig price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - On July 17, palm oil futures maintained a high - level oscillation with a rising bottom and slightly hit a new high. The price closed at 8,796 yuan, up 0.85%. After the US agreed to reduce the tariff on Indonesian palm oil from 32% to 19% (lower than Malaysia's 25%), Indonesia was expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia was still negotiating with the US government to achieve a "win - win" situation [6]. Shanghai Copper - In June, the US PPI was lower than expected while the CPI rose, showing a divergence in inflation between the consumer and production sides. Uncertainties in the US external tariff policy and the President's attitude towards the Fed Chairman affected market sentiment. Fundamentally, the global copper mine supply shortage was difficult to ease in the short term, and the increasing demand from the new energy industry would support the copper price. However, the uncertainty of the US import tariff policy on copper and the increase in bonded - area copper inventory might put pressure on the price. In the short term, Shanghai copper was expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,320 yuan/ton. On July 18, the base - price quote at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 58 lots compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On July 17, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 799.5, with the lowest price of 799.5, the highest price of 834, and closed at 833, with an increase of 9,956 lots in positions. It had the largest increase in three months with a significant increase in trading volume. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot prices of radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January to June, China's log and sawn - timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year, and port shipments decreased. The supply - demand relationship was relatively balanced, but spot trading was weak [7][8][10]. Steel - On July 17, the rb2510 rebar futures contract closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,292 yuan/ton. This week, rebar production continued to decline, inventory slightly increased, and apparent demand significantly decreased. It was the traditional off - season for rebar consumption, with more seasonal maintenance in steel mills and some shifting production to other products. The terminal demand was weak due to low project funds, resulting in a weak market. Currently, the rebar market had weak supply and demand, with slightly increased but still low inventory, and the short - term futures price was expected to move in a narrow range [10]. Alumina - On July 17, the ao2509 alumina futures contract closed at 3,089 yuan/ton. The operating capacity of alumina reached a historical high, and new capacity continued to be released, leading to a significant supply increase exceeding consumption demand. In the third quarter, new capacity would be put into production, and the existing output would reach a new high, with an expected supply surplus. Market inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The increase in warehouse receipts also indicated sufficient physical supply and weakened spot support [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 17, the al2509 Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 20,415 yuan/ton. Uncertainty about the Fed Chairman's position and the US tariff policy affected market sentiment, weakening the upward momentum of the aluminum price. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in domestic main consumption areas was 492,000 tons, decreasing by 9,000 tons from Monday but increasing by 26,000 tons from the previous Thursday. In the short term, the aluminum price was expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [11].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 16, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.22% to 10720.81, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.22% to 2230.19. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1442 billion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 4007.20, down 11.86 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 16, the coke weighted index fluctuated, closing at 1502.6, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index also fluctuated, closing at 912.0 yuan, down 14.4. For coke, due to the rising price of coking coal, the number of loss - making coke enterprises increased, and the supply continued to shrink. A price increase was about to be implemented, and short - term coking profits were expected to recover. But with the strong rise of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still faced loss pressure and might raise prices again. The demand from downstream steel mills was supported, and the inventory structure improved. For coking coal, domestic supply increased as mines resumed production, the Mongolian port was about to resume customs clearance, and the arrival of Australian coal increased this week. The import profit of overseas coal was restored, and subsequent shipments might increase [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rebound of US sugar and weak spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, it continued to fluctuate narrowly. In India, the water level of 161 major reservoirs reached nearly 52% of the total capacity, higher than last year and the past ten - year average. The southwest monsoon was active, and the sown area of monsoon crops increased by 11% compared with last year [2]. Rubber - Thailand's meteorological department warned of heavy rain from July 19 - 21, which might slow down rubber tapping and reduce supply, supporting the futures price. However, weak demand prospects dampened market sentiment. Trump announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting from August 1, 2025. Affected by these factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday and continued to rise slightly at night. In June, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from 2024. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a 24.1% increase from last year [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 16, CBOT soybean futures prices rose due to hopes of increased US export demand. The good growth of US soybeans reduced the risk of production cuts. Brazil's soybean exports in July were expected to be 12.19 million tons. Domestically, on July 16, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2977 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The arrival of imported soybeans and the oil mill operating rate remained high, but feed enterprises' purchases were limited, and the supply pressure at the spot end increased. There was a large order gap for imported soybeans after September, which supported the far - month contract [5]. Live Pigs - On July 15, live pigs trended weakly, with the main contract LH2509 closing at 14010 yuan/ton, down 1.68%. High - temperature weather increased the risk of pig diseases, and farmers were more willing to sell. The terminal market was in the off - season, and demand was weak. The inventory and performance of sows were recovering, and there was still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [5]. Palm Oil - On July 16, palm oil maintained a high - level volatile trend, with increased amplitude. It closed at 8722, up 0.16%. From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and production increased by 17.06% [6]. Shanghai Copper - The better - than - expected US CPI data led to the rebound of the US dollar index, which restricted the rebound of non - ferrous metals. However, the inventory accumulation in non - US regions was limited, and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference in China weakened the downward momentum of Shanghai copper. It was expected to fluctuate between 77500 - 78500 yuan/ton. If it could hold the support at around 78000 yuan, it might continue to be slightly stronger; otherwise, it might test the 77500 - yuan support [6]. Logs - On Wednesday, the 2509 log contract opened at 788, with a low of 787, a high of 797, and closed at 797, with an increase of 2549 lots in positions. Attention was paid to the support at 785 - 790 and the resistance at 800. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January - June, China's log and sawn timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year. Port shipments decreased, and spot trading was weak [6][7]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14165 yuan/ton. On July 17, the minimum basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 73 lots compared with the previous day [7]. Steel - On July 16, rb2510 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3253 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affected downstream construction, weakening steel demand and increasing supply - demand pressure. However, the cost supported steel prices. In the short term, steel prices were expected to adjust narrowly [7][8]. Alumina - On July 16, ao2509 closed at 3111 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price was stable, the trading activity was average, holders were reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises made rigid purchases. The trading volume was limited [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 16, al2508 closed at 20435 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. With the macro - tariff concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the supply side changed little, demand weakened, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased over the weekend, so it was under pressure at high levels [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities in the futures market are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and seasonal patterns. Different commodities show different trends, including high - level shocks, weakening trends, and short - term rebounds [2][3][4]. - The market is in a state of complexity and uncertainty, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors and policy changes when making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Although low domestic inventory provides support, macro uncertainties and weak downstream demand limit the upside space. Alumina is in a game between strong current situation and weak expectations, with prices expected to fluctuate. Zinc prices are under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand, and short - selling at high prices is recommended. Lead prices may fall after rising due to supply recovery and weak demand [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by factors such as marginal improvement in demand and expected supply increase, the price is expected to rebound in the short - term with fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Steel**: The supply - demand of steel is relatively balanced, with a small inventory pressure due to low production. The futures discount has narrowed for two consecutive weeks, and it is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The subsequent inventory build - up may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see and lay out long positions in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand of coking coal is relatively loose, but the fundamentals are slowly improving. The futures are at a premium, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are weak, within an oscillating range. The domestic soybean price follows the international cost side. Attention should be paid to the weather in the production area and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the future. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to sell at high prices and adopt an oscillating range strategy [4]. - **Palm Oil**: In the short - term, it oscillates strongly, and it is recommended to allocate more in the sector with an expected annual tight supply [4]. - **Eggs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, with cost support. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Pigs**: The consumption is seasonally weak, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [5]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see as the new - season apple production is uncertain and the current consumption is light [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it oscillates mainly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices [6]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see after gradually closing short positions as there is a lack of upward - driving force [6]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to long - allocate PX, and for PTA, pay attention to short - term positive spread opportunities and short the processing fee at high prices in the long - term [7]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and hold the RU - NR positive spread [7]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see and follow the implementation of production - cut policies [7]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices [7]. - **MEG**: It is expected to run weakly, and short - selling at high prices is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The overall trend is bearish, and short - selling at high prices while paying attention to inventory accumulation is recommended [8]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals are weak, and short - selling at high prices is recommended [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is approaching its supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase. The raw sugar market is predicted to remain volatile in the long - term, with short - term trends influenced by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output. Domestically, the fast sales pace may support sugar prices, but the upcoming large - scale import of sugar may drag prices down. In the short term, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. - Raw sugar is affected by the global supply - demand relaxation expectation and is likely to remain weak in the short term, with potential buying support at lower levels. In contrast, the faster domestic sales rhythm supports spot prices. However, due to the short - term weakness of raw sugar, the rising profit of out - of - quota imports, and the upcoming processing sugar supply pressure, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - International: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, the global sugar inventory is expected to accumulate. Raw sugar will generally maintain a volatile trend, and short - term trends depend on production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [3]. - Domestic: The fast sales pace may support sugar prices, but the large - scale import of sugar may drag prices down. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar will passively follow raw sugar and remain volatile [5]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - Options: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - 24/25 Northern Hemisphere production increase was less than expected. In the 25/26 season, the Northern Hemisphere is expected to have a restorative increase, and attention should be paid to Brazil's crushing situation [7]. Brazil's Situation - The crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil is lower than the same period last year. Factors such as weather - affected sugarcane yield, lower sugar content, and higher sugar - making ratio should be noted. The sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region remains high [9][10][12]. Other Countries' Situations - Thailand is expected to have a slight increase in production in the new season. In the 24/25 season, sugar production was 10.14 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons), and exports from January to April 2025 were 2.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58 million tons. The 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase [18][21]. - In India, attention should be paid to the impact of ethanol volume on sugar supply and demand. The 25/26 season may see a restorative increase. In the 24/25 season, sugar production was about 26 million tons. As of May 15, 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5% [22][23]. Domestic Situation - In the 25/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to have a restorative increase. In the 24/25 season, the sales - to - production ratio was relatively high, and inventory was at a low level. In the 25/26 season, domestic sugar is in an increasing cycle, with an expected increase to about 11 million tons (subject to weather changes) [25]. - The rising import profit drives a strong import expectation, and import volume is expected to increase [28][31]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data on Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production, and sugar - making ratio; the relationship between crude oil and raw sugar prices; Brazil's monthly sugar exports and inventory; India and Thailand's double - week sugar production; and China's monthly sugar production, sales, inventory, and sugar imports [35][42][46][47][52].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On July 10, 2025, the A-share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1494.2 billion yuan, slightly down by 1.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The prices of various futures varieties also showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 10, the A-share market had a collective rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to close at 3509.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47% to 10631.13 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.22% to 2189.58 points. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4010.02, up 18.62 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 10, the weighted index of coke was strong, closing at 1501.6, up 50.0. The weighted index of coking coal remained strong, closing at 908.1 yuan, up 34.7. The spot price of port coke increased, and the production profit of coking enterprises was poor, leading to reduced production and inventory reduction. The price of coking coal in some areas increased, and coal mines gradually resumed production, with reduced inventory pressure [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of June, the US sugar price rose on Wednesday. Supported by the increase in US sugar price and spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose on Thursday and adjusted at night. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association expects a significant increase in sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season [4]. Rubber - Due to heavy rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, the supply of raw materials decreased, and the spot price in Southeast Asia continued to rise. The Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Thursday and adjusted slightly at night. The operating rates of tire factories showed slight differences this week [5]. Soybean Meal - On July 10, the CBOT soybean futures rebounded. The US soybean export sales increased, but the high - quality rate and good weather reduced the risk of soybean production reduction. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans in oil mills was sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal was increasing. There is a large gap in imported soybean orders after September [6]. Live Pigs - On July 10, the main contract of live pigs (LH2509) rose 0.77% to 14375 yuan/ton. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end accelerated, but the terminal market was in the off - season, and there was supply pressure in the medium and long term [7]. Palm Oil - On July 10, palm oil had a slight shock adjustment after encountering resistance in the recent rise. The MPOB data showed that the production, export, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June had different changes, with the overall data being slightly bearish [8]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper showed a weak trend, with complex supply - demand situations due to the expected increase in global copper mine production and possible decline in US downstream demand. Attention should be paid to LME inventory changes and macro - policy dynamics [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 10, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13875 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 50 lots compared to the previous day [9]. Logs - On July 10, the main contract of logs (2509) showed a certain trend, and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The port log inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [9][10]. Steel - On July 10, the rb2510 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3262 yuan/ton. The price increase was due to positive sentiment and the release of speculative demand in the spot market. The overall production and demand of the five major steel products decreased, and there was no significant supply - demand contradiction [11][13]. Alumina - On July 10, the ao2509 contract closed at 3208 yuan/ton. Although there is an expected supply surplus, it may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term due to news and the risk of short - squeezing [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 10, the al2508 contract closed at 20700 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was close to the industry ceiling, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum rods and ingots showed signs of accumulation, but the low - inventory state may support the price in the short term [13].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 4, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to 3472.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 10508.76 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.36% to 2156.23 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1428.6 billion yuan, an increase of 118.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 3982.20, up 14.13 [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coal Futures (Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke: The weighted index of coke adjusted downward, closing at 1438.7, down 6.3. Supply contracted as coke enterprises had small losses, low production enthusiasm, and reduced daily output. Demand had short - term support as iron - water production increased slightly. It was expected to run in a high - level oscillation [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted, closing at 852.9 yuan, down 9.3. Domestic supply decreased due to safety supervision in Inner Mongolia and partial resumption in Shanxi. Import had inventory pressure. Demand was marginally better as blast - furnace iron - water production increased slightly while coke - enterprise开工 decreased [2]. 2.2. Sugar Futures (Zhengzhou Sugar) - The 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline at night. In the 2024/2025 season, Guangxi's sugarcane planting area increased by 110,000 mu to 1.135 million mu, and sugar production increased by 283,600 tons to 6.465 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3,361,831 tons, higher than 3,194,340 tons in the same period last year [2]. 2.3. Rubber Futures (Shanghai Rubber) - Shanghai rubber declined at night due to short - selling pressure. As of July 4, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,772 tons, down 2148 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, down 3110 tons. The 20 - number rubber inventory was 35,784 tons, up 1513 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, up 2118 tons [3]. 2.4. Soybean Meal Futures - International market: The US soybean planting area in 2025 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The growth indicators were close to the previous year and the five - year average. Future weather in the US Midwest was favorable for growth, but potential weather factors might attract funds [3]. - Domestic market: On July 4, the main M2509 contract of soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. Domestic oil mills had sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large production. Inventory would increase, limiting price increases. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [3][4]. 2.5. Live Pig Futures - On July 4, the live pig futures rose slightly, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14305 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The terminal market was in the off - season, but early - month supply was tight due to scale farms' price - holding and farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price rose, the supply rhythm might recover. There was medium - term supply pressure in the third quarter [4]. 2.6. Cotton Futures - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13850 yuan/ton on Friday night. The minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton. High temperatures of 35 - 40°C were expected in southern and eastern Xinjiang [4]. 2.7. Copper Futures (Shanghai Copper) - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by strong US non - farm data, a stronger US dollar, and rising non - US copper inventories. Supply pressure eased, but long - term supply was still tight. Demand was weak in domestic power infrastructure and home appliance procurement, but grid investment and new - energy demand provided some support. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. 2.8. Log Futures - The 2509 contract of logs opened at 796, with a low of 791, a high of 798, and closed at 795, with a daily reduction of 154 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable [5]. 2.9. Steel Futures (Rebar) - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting on July 1 was expected to improve the steel industry's supply - demand pattern, boosting the rebar futures price. Further price increases depended on substantial production cuts [5]. 2.10. Alumina Futures - The raw - material supply of alumina was relatively sufficient, with port inventory in the medium - high range. Guinea's supply decreased seasonally, and the price was stable. Domestic production capacity was high, and the futures price rebounded. Demand was stable as electrolytic - aluminum production capacity was capped [6]. 2.11. Aluminum Futures (Shanghai Aluminum) - Domestic production capacity was stable. Due to the off - season, downstream orders decreased, ingot production increased, and inventory accumulated slightly. Demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious about high prices, but consumption expectations were positive due to policy support [6][7]. 2.12. Lithium Carbonate Futures - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded due to improved demand expectations in July and rigid - demand orders. However, supply was still strong, and the oversupply situation continued [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend on June 30, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rising. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased compared to the previous Friday [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal futures were affected by various factors such as production, inventory, and policies. The prices of both showed a downward trend on June 30 [2][3]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar was influenced by factors such as the expected decline in sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the adjustment of domestic spot prices, showing a volatile trend [4]. - The price of rubber was affected by technical factors and showed a volatile adjustment. The sales volume of the EU passenger car market in May 2025 increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales volume in the first five months decreased [5]. - The price of soybean meal was affected by factors such as US inventory data and domestic supply and demand. The domestic soybean meal market was in a weak and volatile state [7]. - The price of live hogs was affected by factors such as weak consumer demand and increasing supply, and the upward space of the futures market was limited [7]. - The price of palm oil was in a volatile stage, and the export volume of Malaysia in June increased year - on - year [8]. - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the supply and demand of the copper market. There was uncertainty in the market [8]. - The price of iron ore showed a volatile upward trend on June 30, with an increase in supply and demand [9]. - The price of asphalt showed a volatile upward trend on June 30, but the demand was still weak [9]. - The price of cotton showed a certain change, and the inventory decreased [9]. - The price of logs was in a volatile state, and the demand was weak [10]. - The price of steel was under pressure due to the increase in supply and weak demand, and it continued to fluctuate [12]. - The price of alumina was affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the decline in spot prices may gradually narrow [12]. - The price of Shanghai aluminum was affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals, and it may be under mild pressure [13]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On June 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.59% to 3444.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% to 10465.12 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.35% to 2153.01 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1486.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.2 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3936.08, a rise of 14.32 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On June 30, the weighted index of coke closed at 1408.45, a decrease of 6.2. The weighted index of coking coal closed at 832.7 yuan, a decrease of 9.4. The supply of carbon elements was still abundant, and the downstream iron - making in the off - season did not decline. For coking coal, the policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the inventory continued to decline [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected decline in sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the increase in domestic spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract showed a volatile trend. It closed slightly higher during the day and slightly lower at night [4]. Rubber - Due to short - term over - increase, the Shanghai rubber showed a volatile adjustment on June 30. The sales volume of the EU passenger car market in May 2025 increased by 1.6% year - on - year, but the cumulative sales volume in the first five months decreased by 0.6%. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first five months increased by 14.3% year - on - year [5]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean inventory as of June 1 was higher than expected, which put pressure on the near - term contracts. In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal was large, and the demand was limited, so the price was in a weak and volatile state [7]. Live Hogs - On June 30, the live - hog futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The consumer demand was weak, and the supply of commodity pigs was expected to increase, so the upward space of the futures market was limited [7]. Palm Oil - On June 30, the palm oil was in a volatile stage, and the K - line closed with a lower shadow. The export volume of Malaysia from June 1 - 30 increased by 4.52% compared to the previous month [8]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the supply and demand of the copper market. There was uncertainty in the market. If the tariff negotiation results were good, the copper price was expected to rise; otherwise, it may fall [8]. Iron Ore - On June 30, the iron - ore 2509 contract closed up 0.21% at 715.5 yuan. The supply and demand both increased, and the short - term trend was volatile [9]. Asphalt - On June 30, the asphalt 2509 contract closed up 0.14% at 3564 yuan. The processing profit improved slightly, but the demand was still weak, and the short - term price was volatile [9]. Cotton - The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13730 yuan/ton on June 30. The cotton inventory decreased by 29 contracts [9]. Logs - The log 2509 contract showed a volatile trend on June 30. The demand was weak, and the inventory in ports increased slightly [10]. Steel - On June 30, the rb2510 contract closed at 2997 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton. The supply of steel increased, the demand was weak, and the price continued to fluctuate [12]. Alumina - On June 30, the ao2509 contract closed at 2985 yuan/ton. The supply was loose, the demand was weak, and the decline in spot prices may gradually narrow [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On June 30, the al2508 contract closed at 20580 yuan/ton. Affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals, the price may be under mild pressure [13].