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国新国证期货早报-20250930
Variety Views - On September 29, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.90% to 3862.53, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05% to 13479.43, and the ChiNext Index up 2.74% to 3238.01. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2161.5 billion yuan, an increase of 14.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4620.05, a rise of 70.00 [1] - On September 29, the coke weighted index remained weak, closing at 1665.3, a decrease of 70.9. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1165.2 yuan, a decrease of 60.4 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices - Most downstream construction enterprises have limited improvement in cash flow, only 9% show strong inventory preparation willingness, 83% have the same construction days year-on-year, and 43% are bearish on steel prices after the festival. In October 2025, the total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is expected to be 29.24 million units, a decrease of 9.9% from the same period last year. Coke price increase is expected to be officially implemented during or after the National Day, and the coking profit is expected to improve slightly. The demand for coke is strong, and there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The supply of coking coal is abundant, but there is a risk of marginal deterioration in the inventory structure after the festival, and it is expected that it will be more difficult to support the spot price [3] - Affected by the reduction of spot quotes and the holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower on September 29. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the first half of September is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons [3] - Due to the approaching long holiday, both long and short sides reduced their positions, and the Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated lower at night. In August 2025, the annualized sales volume of global light vehicles was just over 94 million units per year, basically the same as the previous month. In August 2025, the sales volume of the EU passenger car market increased by 5.3% to 677,786 units [4] - On September 29, the CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the expansion of the US soybean harvest area and concerns about export demand. As of September 29, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, in line with market expectations, and the good rate was 62%. In the domestic market, the soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2931 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The supply of domestic soybeans is abundant, and the soybean meal inventory has climbed to over 1.2 million tons [4][5][6] - On September 29, the LH2511 contract closed at 12,295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23%. Affected by the release of production capacity and official de - capacity measures, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and the market demand has not reached the expected level, so the live pig futures are oscillating weakly [6] - On September 29, the palm oil futures price fluctuated slightly at the lower edge of the range. As of September 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 552,200 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.62%, and an increase of 46,300 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 9.16% [7] - Affected by high US inflation, uncertainty about the interest - rate cut path, and potential trade tariffs, the Shanghai copper may oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the shortage of copper ore and the growth of new energy demand will push up the copper price [7] - On the night of September 29, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,245 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 224 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the price of machine - picked cotton was 6.02 - 6.22 yuan per kilogram [7] - On September 29, the log 2511 contract opened at 808.5, closed at 810.5, and decreased its position by 701 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the spot trading is weak [8] - On September 29, the iron ore 2601 contract decreased by 1.57%, closing at 784 yuan. The iron ore shipment decreased, the arrival increased, and the iron water production remained high. The upward space of iron ore prices may be limited in the short term [8] - On September 29, the asphalt 2511 contract increased by 0.43%, closing at 3466 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, the social inventory decreased, and the refinery inventory pressure increased. The demand in the north is supported by pre - holiday construction, while the demand in the south is weak due to heavy rainfall [9][10] - On September 29, the rb2601 contract was reported at 3097 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract was reported at 3289 yuan/ton. Considering the potential inventory accumulation during the National Day and the expected increase in supply - demand pressure after the festival, the steel price may be weakly stable in the short term [10] - On September 29, the ao2601 contract was reported at 2942 yuan/ton. The alumina has no upward driving force, the cost is expected to decline, the demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change [10] - On September 29, the al2511 contract was reported at 20,730 yuan/ton. There is greater uncertainty in the Fed's future monetary policy. The "anti - involution" sentiment in copper smelting has driven up the aluminum futures. After the double - festivals, the inventory change of aluminum ingots needs to be concerned [11]
软商品日报-20250929
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 12:48
| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 【20号胶&天然橡胶胶&合成橡胶】 今日RU继续小跌,NR先抑后扬,BR继续下跌,国内天然橡胶和合成橡胶现价稳中有跌,外盘丁二烯港口价格稳定,泰国原料市 场价格总体下跌。供应方面,目前全球天然橡胶供应进入高产期,东南亚等产区降雨天气偏多;上周国内丁二烯橡胶装置开工 率继续大幅回落,益华橡塑临时停车检修、山东威特继 ...
国投期货软商品日报-20250925
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 11:56
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Paper pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing supply - demand, price, and inventory information, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing or trading within a range [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and declined, with weak spot trading but good pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new - cotton listing. The acquisition of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton is expected to start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with the output forecast ranging from 720 to 770 tons. Ginning factories are cautious about new - cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly. At the beginning of new - cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. Domestic peak - season demand is weak, and spinning profits are poor, which drags down the cotton price. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations need further follow - up. After the short - term breakdown of Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year, and the supply pressure is less than last year. In the medium term, based on the sugar - alcohol ratio, if the current ratio is maintained, Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year, so there is still pressure on the upside of US sugar. Attention should be paid to subsequent production. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. This year's sales rhythm is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. Since July, rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. Typhoon Kajiki is expected to have little impact on sugarcane growth, and subsequent growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price is strongly running. Affected by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the demand for cold - storage apples has increased. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with the pre - order price of pre - harvested apples remaining high. From a fundamental perspective, the high price of early - maturing apples has raised the market's expectation for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, according to bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In addition, farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than market expectations. Overall, although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage inventory in the new season will be higher than expected, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&IR oscillated weakly, and BR oscillated strongly. The wait - and - see sentiment in the futures market has increased. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber have stabilized with a slight increase, the import price of butadiene in the external market has remained stable, and the prices in the Thai raw - material market have mostly declined. In terms of supply, the global natural - rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and there has been a lot of rainfall in the main producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene - rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants in maintenance and low - load operation. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants has also decreased significantly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly last week, and tire enterprises maintained normal production, but the inventory of finished - tire products increased. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao announced by Longzhong this week continued to decline to 461,200 tons, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber announced by Zhuochuang last week fell back to 12,600 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rebounded to 27,800 tons this week. Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, and the supply and inventory of synthetic rubber both decrease. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk preference is cautious. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [5] Paper Pulp - The paper - pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon is 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish is 4,220 yuan/ton, and the prices are stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper - pulp ports in China is 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.7%. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts. China's paper - pulp import volume in August 2025 was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 227,000 tons. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the paper - pulp supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in port inventory. The paper - pulp demand is still average. A wait - and - see approach or a trading - within - a - range strategy is recommended [6] Logs - The futures price is oscillating. The mainstream spot price has remained stable. In terms of supply, the weekly arrival volume decreased month - on - month. The price of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price has been weak, and the import willingness of traders has declined. In addition, the external - market price is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. In terms of demand, although it is the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average outbound volume during the off - season has remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction has been smooth. In terms of inventory, the total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and there is insufficient upward momentum for prices in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]
国投期货软商品日报-20250924
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 13:28
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability [1] - Sugar: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and other factors [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summaries by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, with weak spot trading and good pre - sales of new cotton. New cotton sales may be favorable at the beginning of the new cotton listing period due to low old - crop inventory [2] - Xinjiang machine - picked cotton acquisition is expected to gradually start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. The probability of a high - yield cotton crop in Xinjiang is large, but the specific yield estimate ranges from 720 to 770 tons [2] - Ginners are cautious about new cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a situation of grabbing cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly due to the high yield [2] - At the beginning of the new cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. The weak demand in the peak season and poor spinning profits drag down the cotton price [2] - Positive signals have been released in Sino - US trade negotiations, but details need further follow - up. After Zhengzhou cotton broke through the support level, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increase in the sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss of sugar production, and Brazil's sugar production will remain high [3] - Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In terms of production and sales, the sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the next sugar - making season. After July, the rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar output in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be relatively good [3] - Typhoon Koinu will bring wind and rain to Guangxi, with expected limited impact. Follow - up conditions need to be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated strongly. In the spot market, the demand for cold - storage apples increased due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is high, with the pre - harvest order price remaining high [4] - Based on the bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side [4] - Apple farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples left for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new quarter may be higher than market expectations [4] - Although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage apple inventory in the new quarter will be higher than expected. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term, and a bearish operation strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all rose slightly, and the sentiment in the futures market improved. The domestic spot price of natural rubber was stable, the spot price of synthetic rubber increased, and the port price of butadiene in the external market was stable [5] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production period, and Super Typhoon Koinu passed through production areas such as China and Vietnam. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline significantly, and some plants were shut down for maintenance or operating at low loads [5] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly, tire enterprises maintained normal production, and the inventory of finished tire products increased [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 46.12 tons, with the bonded - area inventory decreasing and the general - trade inventory increasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 1.26 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene continued to decline to 2.31 tons [5] - Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, the supply of synthetic rubber decreases and inventory also decreases, and cost - driven factors strengthen. As the National Day holiday approaches, risk preference is cautious. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to typhoon weather [5] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the price of broad - leaved pulp was also stable [6] - As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 211.2 tons, a 5 - ton increase from the previous period, a 2.4% month - on - month increase, and the inventory was still at a high level year - on - year [6] - The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [6] - China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 265.3 tons, a 22.7 - ton month - on - month decrease. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the pulp demand is still average. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt a range - trading strategy [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream quotation was stable [7] - Last week, the arrival volume decreased month - on - month. In September, the quotation of New Zealand radiata pine decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price remained weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased [7] - The external quotation is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level [7] - Although the demand has entered the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average shipment volume during the off - season remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction was smooth [7] - The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and the short - term price increase momentum is insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [7]
国新国证期货早报-20250922
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures varieties on September 19, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, soybean meal, live pigs, palm oil, Shanghai copper, iron ore, asphalt, log, cotton, steel, alumina, and Shanghai aluminum, and predicts their future trends [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 19, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated and sorted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.30% to 3,820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.04% to 13,070.86 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.16% to 3,091.00 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.3238 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 811.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4,501.92, a month-on-month increase of 3.81 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index fluctuated strongly on September 19, closing at 1,754.1, a month-on-month increase of 15.9. There is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts in the coking industry, but due to low profits, some coking plants have proposed a first-round price increase, intensifying the game. The overall coke inventory has increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. Due to the high market expectation of coking coal overproduction inspection and "anti-involution," there is a certain expectation of an increase in coke costs, and the price mainly follows the rise of coking coal [1] - Coking coal: The price is relatively strong due to the high market expectation of overproduction inspection and "anti-involution." The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the spot auction transactions have weakened, the transaction price has followed the decline of the disk, and the terminal inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has increased month-on-month, the production-end inventory has decreased slightly, the short-term shutdown of coking coal has basically recovered, the impact duration is short, and the impact on inventory is small [1][2] Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the large short-term decline and the influence of technical factors, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Affected by the large short-term decline and the rebound of the US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated and sorted slightly higher in the night session last Friday. A commodity research report shows that the estimated beet output of the EU 27 and the UK in the 2025/26 season remains at 113.6 million tons. Traders and government officials said that India's sugar exports are expected to be less than 800,000 tons this year, failing to meet the quota of 1 million tons, as the increase in Brazilian supply has pulled down global sugar prices and affected India's sugar exports [2] Rubber - Due to the large short-term decline and the influence of technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and sorted slightly higher last Friday. As of September 19, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 196,824 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4,876 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 154,920 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3,180 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 49,695 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 44,553 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,411 tons [2] Soybean Meal - International market: On September 19, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean has entered the initial stage of harvesting. Given the dry weather in the US soybean producing areas and the decline in crop quality, the market expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield in next month's report. Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company released its first forecast for the 2025/26 crop year, expecting soybean production to increase by 3.6% compared with the previous year [3] - Domestic market: On September 19, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7%. At present, the number of imported soybeans in China is large, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mills maintain a high operating level, the pressing volume remains high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise. As of last week, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.36 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 20,000 tons. In the short term, the inventory pressure of soybeans and soybean meal is still large. Due to the loose supply and the increasing supply pressure after the start of the US soybean harvest, the price of soybean meal fluctuates weakly. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the changes in soybean arrival volume [3][4] Live Pigs - On September 19, the main contract of live pigs LH2511 closed at 12,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%. The enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is high, the supply of standard pigs in September has increased significantly, and the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated release. The slaughter rhythm of large-scale pig farms has accelerated, and the willingness of small and medium-sized pig farms to sell pigs has also increased significantly. The overall market supply is sufficient. Although the consumer demand has shown a slow recovery recently, the start-up rate of slaughterhouses has been briefly boosted by the start of the school season and the pre-holiday stocking, but the high temperature in the south has suppressed the consumption of fresh meat, and the sales of white-striped pigs are not smooth. The demand side is still difficult to strongly support the market in the short term. In the short term, the futures price of live pigs may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the loose supply and limited demand growth. In the future, attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live pigs and the actual effect of production capacity regulation policies [4] Palm Oil - On Friday night, the palm oil futures continued to maintain a slight consolidation state, and the current price range has reached the lower edge of the overall high range. At the close, the K-line of the main contract P2601 closed with a small doji with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9,336, the lowest price was 9,286, and the closing price was 9,306, a decrease of 0.11% from the Friday daytime close. High-frequency data: According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from September 1 to 20 was 1,010,032 tons, an increase of 8.7% compared with the export volume of 929,051 tons in the same period last month [5] Shanghai Copper - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the policy trend is attracting attention, and the US dollar index has fluctuated sharply. The social inventory of Shanghai copper has accumulated for three consecutive weeks. The tight supply of raw materials is difficult to significantly improve in the short term, which will support copper prices to a certain extent. However, attention should be paid to the production situation of smelters. On the demand side, the pre-holiday stocking demand may boost copper prices to a certain extent, but the high price still suppresses demand, and the upward space of copper prices may be limited [5] Iron Ore - On September 19, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up, with an increase of 0.81%, and the closing price was 807.5 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipping volume rebounded month-on-month, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory decreased, the steel mills have a demand for replenishment before the festival, and the molten iron output continued to increase slightly at a high level. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On September 19, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed down, with a decrease of 0.44%, and the closing price was 3,421 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased slightly, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment volume increased. The good weather in the north supports the rush-demand, but the increased rainfall in some southern regions still hinders the demand. In the short term, the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate [6] Log - On Friday, the opening price was 800, the lowest price was 800, the highest price was 808, the closing price was 805, and the daily position was reduced by 285 lots. The futures price rebounded above the 10-day moving average of 803. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 813. On September 19, the spot market price of 3.9-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot market price of 4-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that the log import volume in August was 2.11 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24%. There is no major contradiction in the supply and demand relationship. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the spot transactions are weak. Pay attention to the support of the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and macro expectations and market sentiment on the price [6] Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,735 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 206 lots compared with the previous trading day. The estimated output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/2026 season is 6.91 million tons, a record high [6] Steel - Judging from the performance in the two weeks after the military parade, the steel demand trend is in line with the seasonality. This week, the molten iron output remains at a high level, but as the weather gradually cools down, the steel demand may recover to a certain extent next week, and the steel will enter the inventory inflection point. Recently, there has been a lot of market news, and the valuation of the black sector is low due to the previous decline. With the arrival of the peak season, the steel demand will continue to improve. Considering the pre-National Day replenishment, the black sector is supported. If the downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, the steel price may rise further. In the future, attention should be paid to the peak season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7] Alumina - Fundamental raw materials: The rainy season in Guinea continues to affect shipments, and the subsequent domestic bauxite imports are expected to decrease, and the quotation is relatively firm. Supply: Some previously overhauled alumina production capacities have gradually resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded slightly. Although the supply of bauxite is expected to be tight, the port inventory of raw materials is still at a medium to high level, so the overall supply is still sufficient, and there is no large-scale production reduction. The supply volume has maintained a slight increase. Demand: The capacity replacement project in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has promoted a slight increase in the demand for alumina, but due to the upper limit of the aluminum industry, the demand boost is less than the supply growth. Overall, the current fundamentals of alumina are still in a state of oversupply, and the inventory has accumulated slightly [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Supply: The supply of raw material alumina is relatively sufficient, and the quotation has declined. Although the spot price of electrolytic aluminum has also回调 after the interest rate cut, the smelting profit can still be maintained at a good level due to the reduction of raw material costs, and the production enthusiasm is high. In addition, the completion of some capacity replacement projects in the electrolytic aluminum industry has led to a slight increase in the industry's production capacity, and the overall production capacity is gradually approaching the upper limit of the industry. Demand: The realization of the interest rate cut expectation has led to a slight回调 in the aluminum price. Coupled with the traditional consumption peak season and the pre-holiday stocking demand, the purchasing willingness of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increased demand [8]
国新国证期货早报-20250918
Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 17, 2025, the A-share market showed overall positive trends, with increases in major indices and trading volume. Futures markets for various commodities had different performances influenced by factors such as supply and demand, production changes, and macro - economic expectations [1]. - The global sugar market is expected to shift from a supply shortage in 2024/25 to a slight surplus in 2025/26, with increased production and consumption [5]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 17, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3876.34, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16% to 13215.46, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95% to 3147.35. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2376.7 billion yuan, a slight increase of 35.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4551.02, up 27.69 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 17, the coke weighted index closed at 1746.9, up 7.0; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1239.8 yuan, up 1.8. A coal mine in Linfen Hongtong stopped production on September 16 for about 20 days, affecting about 140,000 tons of raw coal output. Three coking coal mines in Ordos have suspended shipments, one of which has stopped production for rectification. The spot price of coking coal has stopped falling and rebounded, and the possibility of a third price cut in the short term is low [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The October sugar delivery volume on the Intercontinental Exchange was 260,750 tons. Brazilian spot sugar prices declined in the first half of September. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar prices and the reduction of imported processed sugar quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on September 17. The global sugar market is expected to shift from a shortage of - 4.4 million tons in 2024/25 to a surplus of + 0.7 million tons in 2025/26, with production increasing from 189.4 million tons to 196.8 million tons and consumption increasing by 2.4 million tons [5]. Rubber - Nissan's plan to cut production and close design studios affected the market. The Shanghai Rubber futures fell on September 17. As of September 14, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 0.56 million tons or 0.95% from the previous period. The保税 area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons [6][7]. Soybean Meal - On September 17, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower. The US soybean crop rating decreased to 63%. Brazil's 2025 soybean production forecast remained at 170.3 million tons. The domestic soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 3002 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is rising [8]. Live Hogs - On September 17, the LH2511 contract closed at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 1.22%. In September, the supply of suitable - weight pigs increased, and the consumption demand recovered slowly, resulting in a weak and volatile futures price [9]. Palm Oil - On September 17, the palm oil futures failed to continue rising and closed lower. From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 8.05%, and exports decreased by 0.1% [9]. Shanghai Copper - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but there is a risk of "buy on rumor, sell on news". Overseas copper mines have occasional disruptions, and the domestic copper concentrate processing fee is low. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has widened, and the social inventory accumulation is limited [10]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,870 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 144 lots in inventory. The price of Xinjiang machine - picked cottonseed was 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [10]. Iron Ore - On September 17, the iron ore 2601 contract closed down 0.12% at 804.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the iron water production returned to a high level. However, steel mills in Tangshan were required to reduce emissions, so the iron ore price was volatile [10][11]. Asphalt - On September 17, the asphalt 2511 contract closed up 0.58% at 3445 yuan. The asphalt supply remained low, the inventory decreased slightly, the shipment volume declined, and the demand was weak, so the price was volatile [11]. Logs - On September 17, the log futures opened at 806.5, closed at 809, and decreased by 1268 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship was stable, and the market was in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Steel - On September 17, the rb2601 contract closed at 3168 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3390 yuan/ton. The steel industry faced high supply and low demand, resulting in high inventory, low prices, and reduced profits [12]. Alumina - On September 17, the ao2601 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton. The alumina price fell back after rising. The supply was loose, and downstream enterprises were mainly waiting and seeing [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 17, the al2511 contract closed at 20,940 yuan/ton. The market was waiting for the Fed's decision. The domestic "anti - involution" policy provided some support. The supply was normal, the social inventory increased, and the demand was cautious [13].
国新国证期货早报-20250912
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On September 11, the A-share market showed strong performance, with significant increases in major indices and a large trading volume. However, different futures varieties had diverse trends affected by various factors such as supply - demand relations, international policies, and macro - economic conditions [1] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 11, the three major A - share indices soared. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3875.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36% to 12979.89 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% to 3053.75 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 24377 billion yuan, a significant increase of 4596 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4548.03, a rise of 102.67 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 11, the coke weighted index had a weak rebound, closing at 1639.8, a rise of 29.7. The coking coal weighted index had a wide - range shock, closing at 1147.7 yuan, a rise of 28.8. The first - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a range of 50/55 yuan/ton, and the iron - water output declined significantly. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated, with more auction failures. Mine safety supervision was strict, and the resumption of production of sample mines was slow, but the upstream mine inventory began to decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal was 5282.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.36%, and the export of coke was 350.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28% [1][2][3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the improvement of Brazilian ethanol prices and the decline of German sugar production, the US sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. Affected by the stabilization and rebound of US sugar and the increase of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose on Thursday. A well - known industry institution suggested that India should allow 2 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 market year due to supply surplus [3] Rubber - Mexico planned to impose a maximum 50% tariff on automobiles, auto parts, steel, and textiles from China and other countries without a trade agreement with Mexico. Affected by this, the Shanghai rubber futures declined on Thursday. In August, Vietnam's rubber export volume increased by 5.1% month - on - month, and Cote d'Ivoire's export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [4] Soybean Meal - On September 11, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The upcoming soybean harvest in the US increased the seasonal supply pressure. As of the week ending September 4, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/26 season was 541100 tons. Brazil's soybean sowing season started earlier, and Argentina's new - season soybean planting area was expected to decrease by 4.3% year - on - year to 17.6 million hectares. In the domestic market, on September 11, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated. The M2601 main contract closed at 2088 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.72%. The large import of soybeans, sufficient supply, high - level operation of factories, and high - volume crushing led to an increase in soybean meal inventory, putting pressure on prices. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations made the market have expectations of a decline in long - term supply, resulting in a fluctuating price [4][5] Live Pigs - On September 11, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13320 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.04%. In September, the production capacity was in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased, and the daily average slaughter of group pig enterprises increased month - on - month. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption seasons were approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption was slow, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose [5] Palm Oil - On September 11, the palm oil futures market stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9334, the lowest was 9208, and the closing price was 9330, a rise of 0.93% from the previous day. From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output decreased compared with the same period last month [6] Shanghai Copper - The high probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the weakening of the US dollar increased the allocation value of copper, providing upward momentum for the Shanghai copper price. However, global trade frictions were still uncertain, and the tight supply pattern of mines was difficult to change in the short term. With the deepening of the traditional consumption season and the promotion of relevant industrial policies, the downstream demand was expected to be further released, especially the increasing demand from the new energy and power industries, but the recovery speed of traditional consumption areas remained to be seen [6] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13830 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 163 lots compared with the previous trading day. Pakistan's first genetically modified cotton was developed and was being tested in some areas, with a yield more than three times the current national average [6] Iron Ore - On September 11, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down with a decline of 0.81%, at 795.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume and port arrival volume decreased, and the iron - water output declined significantly. However, due to the good profits of steel mills, the demand for iron - water was expected to recover, and the short - term iron ore price fluctuated [6] Asphalt - On September 11, the 2511 main contract of asphalt closed up with a rise of 0.76%, at 3463 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, but the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers decreased. Affected by weather, the demand showed the characteristic of "peak season without prosperity", and the short - term price fluctuated [7] Logs - On September 11, the log futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no significant contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the spot trading was weak [7][8] Steel - On September 11, rb2601 closed at 3092 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3334 yuan/ton. Some steel mills resumed production this week, increasing the consumption of iron ore. After the first - round price cut of coke, it was weakly stable. Due to the slow recovery of downstream terminal demand in "Golden September", high - price sales were difficult, and the decline of rebar and iron ore futures on Thursday intensified market wait - and - see sentiment, resulting in repeated price fluctuations in the short term [8] Alumina - On September 11, ao2601 closed at 2945 yuan/ton. Alumina maintained a weak and fluctuating operation. Supply surplus and warehouse receipt pressure were the upper limits, but the support around the full - cost of 2850 yuan was strengthening. The price stability depended on the interruption of Guinea's ore supply and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. If there were disturbances in the ore end and the rebound of aluminum prices, alumina might have a phased recovery in the fourth quarter [8] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 11, al2510 closed at 20915 yuan/ton. The current aluminum market had multiple positive factors in the macro - aspect, providing strong support for the price. However, downstream industries were cautious in purchasing, and the release of inventory demand was limited. Affected by weak cost support and bearish market sentiment, the electrolytic aluminum price would remain strong, but attention should be paid to raw material prices and downstream actual demand [9]
国新国证期货早报-20250905
Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 4, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market had a collective pullback. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.83% to 12118.70, and the ChiNext Index declined 4.25% to 2776.25. The trading volume reached 2544.3 billion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4365.21, down 94.62 [1][2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke weighted index closed at 1585.0, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1093.5 yuan, down 21.7 [3][4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Affected by the expected sufficient supply in major producing countries, the US sugar oscillated lower on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices, and continued to fall at night [5]. - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber had a narrow - range fluctuation. Natural rubber was strong while 20 - rubber was weak. Supported by the strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher at night. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 999,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures closed higher on September 4. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated, with the M2601 contract closing at 3048 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.59% [6]. - **Live Hogs**: The live hog futures price oscillated weakly, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. In September, the market supply is still under pressure, but the consumption is seasonally picking up [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures oscillated slightly. The main contract P2601 closed at 9390, up 0.23%. Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons [8]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the cost supports the price. The domestic demand is expected to recover, but the export demand may decline [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose 1.67% to 791.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the demand is slightly weak, but the terminal demand in the peak season provides support [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2510 contract fell 2.14% to 3468 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the short - term price will oscillate [10]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13960 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 167 lots [10]. - **Log**: The 2511 log contract opened at 797, closed at 797, with an increase of 317 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [10][12]. - **Steel**: The rb2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is unstable, and the short - term price will fluctuate slightly [12]. - **Alumina**: The ao2601 contract closed at 2980 yuan/ton. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the cost support is weakening [13]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The al2510 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. The high - level oscillation of the main contract may continue, and the market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression" [13]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market had a significant pullback on September 4, with increased trading volume [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are under pressure. The coking coal inventory is increasing, and the coke price increase is not implemented while some areas propose price cuts [5]. - The sugar market is affected by the expected sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5]. - The rubber market is supported by the supply - side situation in Southeast Asia [6]. - The soybean meal price oscillates due to sufficient domestic supply and potential supply from South America [6][7]. - The live hog market has supply pressure in the short term, but the consumption is seasonally improving [7]. - The palm oil market shows a slight upward trend, and the production in Malaysia is estimated to increase [8]. - The Shanghai copper price is affected by supply, cost, demand, and external factors such as US economic data [9]. - The iron ore price oscillates due to the change in supply - demand relationship and the support from the peak - season demand [9]. - The asphalt price oscillates with the decline of capacity utilization rate and general terminal demand [10]. - The log market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. - The steel price has limited fluctuations, and the demand recovery will determine the future trend [12]. - The alumina price is under pressure due to increased supply and weakened cost support [13]. - The Shanghai aluminum price is in a balanced state between macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression [13]. 3. Factors Affecting Different Commodities Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: The eighth - round price increase is not implemented, and some areas propose the first - round price cut. The iron water production is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The power consumption in China accounts for 30% of the terminal energy consumption, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. The mine inventory is increasing, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected sufficient supply in major producing countries and the decline of US sugar and spot prices affect the price of Zhengzhou sugar [5]. Rubber - The strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia support the price of Shanghai rubber [6]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean harvest is approaching, and Brazil's exports are expected to increase. In the domestic market, the sufficient supply of imported soybeans, the potential supply from South America, and the increase of soybean meal inventory affect the price [6][7]. Live Hogs - The supply is under pressure in September, but the consumption is seasonally picking up due to the start of the school term [7]. Palm Oil - The production increase in Malaysia affects the price of palm oil [8]. Shanghai Copper - **Supply**: The domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and the refined copper production is expected to decline slightly. - **Cost**: The TC fee is negative, and the raw material price increase supports the copper price. - **Demand**: The export demand may decline due to US tariffs, but the domestic demand is expected to recover. - **External Factor**: The US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the copper price [9]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded to the annual high, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron water production has decreased slightly, but the peak - season demand provides support [9]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the terminal demand is general [10]. Log - The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. Steel - The demand for steel is unstable during the off - peak to peak - season transition. The cost changes little, and the production may remain high [12]. Alumina - The supply is increasing due to the resumption of production lines and the stable output of new capacity. The cost support is weakening due to the decline of bauxite price [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression", and the US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the market sentiment [13].
国新国证期货早报-20250903
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, the A-share market and multiple futures varieties showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as market supply - demand, policy restrictions, and international market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][7][8][9][11][12] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 2, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2875 billion yuan, an increase of 125 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also adjusted downward, closing at 4490.45, a decrease of 33.26 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On September 2, the weighted coke index showed weak consolidation, closing at 1599.6, a decrease of 6.9. There is a temporary supply contraction due to upcoming northern regional restrictions, while steel mills also face restrictions, and cost support is weakening [2][4] - Coking Coal: On September 2, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1110.9 yuan, a decrease of 9.2. Some mines in major coal - producing areas have suspended production, and downstream enterprises will face restrictions, resulting in weak supply and demand [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction in spot prices and short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined on September 2 and continued to fall slightly at night. India will allow unrestricted use of sugarcane juice, syrup, and molasses for ethanol production in the new season [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range fluctuation on September 2 and closed slightly higher. Boosted by rising crude oil prices, it rose slightly at night. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.6% [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 2, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September, and Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach a record 1.782 billion tons, a 5.6% increase year - on - year. Domestically, on September 2, soybean meal futures fluctuated. The M2601 contract closed at 3050 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease. High imports and high processing volumes have led to sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5] Live Hogs - On September 2, live hog futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2511 contract closed at 13595 yuan/ton, a 0.22% decrease. In September, supply is sufficient, and some areas face disease risks. Although there is a recovery in terminal demand due to the start of the school season, the support for prices is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is high [7] Palm Oil - On September 2, palm oil futures continued a slight rebound but lacked upward momentum. The main contract P2601 closed at 9422, a 0.4% increase. Malaysia's August palm oil exports increased by 30.53% year - on - year, while production decreased by 2.65% [8] Shanghai Copper - Positive macro factors and supply - tightening expectations will support copper prices. With low inventory and high premiums in China, and the approaching peak consumption season, demand is expected to increase. However, high prices may suppress some purchasing intentions [8] Cotton - On the night of September 2, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 189 lots [9] Iron Ore - On September 2, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%. Global shipments have reached a high for the year, and arrivals have increased. Short - term prices are in a fluctuating trend due to production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] Asphalt - On September 2, the main contract of asphalt 2510 fluctuated and rose 1.17%, closing at 3551 yuan. The capacity utilization rate has decreased, inventory reduction is slow, and with the approaching peak demand season, prices are expected to fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 2, the log futures contract 2511 opened at 820, closed at 810.5, and increased in positions by 755 lots. The price broke below the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to factors such as peak - season prices, imports, and inventory [9][10][11] Steel Products - On September 2, rb2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3298 yuan/ton. The market lacks strong macro - drivers, and the fundamentals are weak, which may continue to suppress prices [11] Alumina - On September 2, ao2601 closed at 3022 yuan/ton. Some domestic enterprises are under maintenance, and production and operating rates have slightly declined, but the supply is still relatively loose, and the market may continue to be weak [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 2, al2510 closed at 20720 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is favorable, but the peak - season expectations have not been realized. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is in a range - bound trend [12]
软商品日报-20250829
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:57
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: White star [1] - Timber: White star [1] - Natural Rubber: White star [1] - 20 - rubber: White star [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still volatile, with a cautious view on the upside space. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Due to the possible shortfall in Brazil's sugar production, the US sugar price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, and has not bottomed out in the medium term. Domestic Zhengzhou sugar is weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3]. - The futures price of apples continues to rise with increasing long - short divergence. The market is bullish in the short term, but there is insufficient bullish drive on the supply side in the medium and long term. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - The demand for rubber is expected to weaken in the short term, the supply increases, the natural rubber inventory continues to decline, and the synthetic rubber inventory rebounds. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The pulp supply is relatively loose, the demand is average, and it is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6]. - The supply - demand situation of logs has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today, with stable basis of inland cotton spot and light trading. In July, domestic cotton imports were 50000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 149400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22600 tons. A 200000 - ton sliding - duty processing trade quota was issued, which can relieve the cost pressure on some export enterprises. The market expects a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The short - term trend is volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of July were bullish. In the short term, the US sugar price may rebound, and it has not bottomed out in the medium term. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. This year's sales rhythm was fast, with lower inventory. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season. The output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth [3]. Apple - The futures price continued to rise with increasing long - short divergence. The price of early - maturing apples is high, increasing the market's bullish sentiment. However, the supply - side increase in the 25/26 quarter is not significant, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated and rose today. The current prices of domestic natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded last week. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires and semi - steel tires rebounded, and the tire enterprises' finished - product inventory increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rebounded, and the butadiene port inventory declined. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Pulp - The pulp futures continued to decline today. As of August 28, 2025, the mainstream imported sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 2.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. The global pulp shipment to China in June was 1.6119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6]. Timber - The futures price of logs fluctuated, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. The log arrival volume decreased last week, and the domestic import is not expected to increase significantly in the short term. The daily port outbound volume is about 60000 cubic meters, and the inventory is 3.05 million cubic meters as of August 22, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33%. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. It is recommended to wait and see [7]