Report Title - Zhengzhou Sugar Expected to Move in a Range Amid International Supply Surplus and Short - term Cost Support [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the expectation of supply surplus has widened, with bearish factors dominant. International sugar prices have continuously broken through support levels and are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Domestically, the new cane sugar season has officially started, with good supply expectations. The import volume has declined, and the impact of international supply has weakened. In the short - term, it is expected to move in a range, with attention on the 5500 resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory Main Views - Internationally, the supply surplus expectation has expanded, and international sugar prices are under pressure. In October, the first half of Brazil's central - southern region produced 2484000 tons of sugar, a 1.25% year - on - year increase. Institutions expect increased sugar production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season. Domestically, import data has declined, and Zhengzhou sugar is moving in a range. New domestic sugar has not been launched yet, and imported sugar still dominates the supply. In October, the forecasted arrival of imported sugar was 174500 tons, a month - on - month decline. The new sugar - cane season is expected to have good supply, and attention should be paid to the sugar yield and subsequent weather [6]. Market Review - In October, the ICE raw sugar 03 contract continuously broke through support levels and declined, while the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract generally maintained a weak and fluctuating pattern [8]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Foreign**: Brazil's sugar production in September and the first half of October increased significantly year - on - year, with a high sugar - making ratio. In September, both the export volume and price of sugar decreased. India and Thailand are expected to have high yields in the 25/26 season due to good weather conditions, and their exportable volumes are expected to increase [10]. - **Supply - Domestic**: As of the end of September 2025, the 24/25 season produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, a 12% year - on - year increase. The 25/26 season is expected to produce 11.7 million tons of sugar, a slight year - on - year increase [10][29]. - **Inventory - Domestic**: As of the end of September, the new industrial sugar inventory was 765000 tons, a 114.2% year - on - year increase. The industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan were 442100 tons and 204700 tons respectively [10]. - **Spot - Domestic**: In October, the spot price of white sugar decreased. As of October 31, the spot quotes in Liuzhou, Kunming, and Nanning were 5730 yuan/ton, 5710 yuan/ton, and 5730 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot index price of white sugar was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 - 200 yuan/ton from the previous month [10][38]. - **Import and Profit - Domestic**: In September, China imported 550000 tons of sugar, and the forecasted arrival of imported sugar in October was 174500 tons. In October, the import price of sugar declined, and the profit from out - of - quota imports increased, making the imported sugar market more competitive [10]. - **Demand - Domestic**: The consumption side is relatively stable. The industrial sugar consumption in 2025 is expected to be 8.586 million tons, an increase of 54000 tons from the previous year [10][47]. Spread Tracking - The report mentions various sugar contract spreads such as 91 spread, 15 spread, 59 spread, and the basis spreads of 9 - month, 1 - month, 5 - month contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [49][51][53].