1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, sugar prices generally fluctuated and declined, with a possibility of a second bottoming Import volume increased significantly, and the price was lower than that of domestic spot sugar, while downstream sales were weak Currently in the off - season for consumption, the market is generally weak [5] - Near the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream market procurement is inactive Large - volume and low - price imported sugar is squeezing the market share of domestic sugar The main contract 05 is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the 5200 long - short watershed [6] - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review (Weekly Review) - Sugar prices fluctuated and declined this week with a possible second bottoming Import volume increased significantly, and downstream sales were weak In the off - season for consumption, the market was generally weak [5] - Different institutions have different predictions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, DATAGRO has revised it down to 100 million tons from 280 million tons, Czarnikow has raised it to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate, and StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus [5] - By the end of December 2025, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 470.18 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 157 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39% In December 2025, China imported 58 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 19 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 6.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.08 million tons [5] 3.2 Daily Prompt - Near the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream market procurement is inactive Large - volume and low - price imported sugar is squeezing the market share of domestic sugar The main contract 05 is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the 5200 long - short watershed [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: Possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose Bearish factors: Increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7] - Different institutions' predictions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation: StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus as global sugar production is expected to grow by 3.15% while consumption only grows by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a 153 - million - ton surplus as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [32] - Sugar production - related data from 2024/25 to 2025/26: Sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, sugarcane and beet yields per hectare, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are provided [33] - The cost and profit of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff from December 2025 to January 2026 are presented [37] 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of a downward trend in Malaysian palm oil if it breaks below 4000 ringgit. In China, the futures of Dalian palm oil are expected to be weakly viewed in the short - term due to high port inventories and the potential weakness of Malaysian palm oil. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. In China, the fundamentals of soybean oil are positive as inventories are decreasing, and imports are expected to decline in January [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Attention should be paid to whether COFCO can start pressing on time. After starting, it may relieve the shortage in South China, but there is a risk of further price decline in the futures market [1]. Cotton - ICE US cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In the Chinese market, cotton prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term due to factors such as faster sales progress, cost solidification, and expected reduction in planting area in 2026 [3]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to trade in a range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound in the short - term. In the Chinese market, sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile at a low level due to the expected supply surplus and cautious market sentiment [4]. Jujube - The spot market of jujube has weak trading, but the new - season warehouse receipt cost provides some support to the futures market. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction progress [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the co - existence of farmers' reluctance to sell and policy - supported supply. However, policy releases and pre - Spring Festival selling pressure may suppress prices [8]. Pork - Spot pork prices are back in a volatile pattern. The futures market is expected to be range - bound in the short - term. Although there is some support from secondary fattening, the overall supply in January is relatively loose [10]. Meal - US soybeans have a technical rebound, but the global supply - demand pattern and South American production expectations still suppress the market. In China, soybean meal is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short - term [13]. Eggs - The supply pressure of eggs may ease as the number of laying hens is expected to decrease. Although the market sentiment is positive due to approaching Spring Festival stocking, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to be volatile at a low level [15]. 3. Summary by Catalog Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On January 5, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil remained unchanged at 8410 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.08% to 7856 yuan/ton. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.16% to 8490 yuan/ton, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 1.12% to 8488 yuan/ton. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.20% to 10050 yuan/ton, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.47% to 9044 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread (2605) increased by 12.47% to - 632 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread (2605) decreased by 3.02% to 1188 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.48% to 14655 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.58% to 14845 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.98% to 64.64 cents per pound [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.32% to 15442 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.38% to 15615 yuan/ton [3]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.11% to 5257 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.06% to 5269 yuan/ton. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.82% to 14.72 cents per pound [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price decreased by 0.37% to 5330 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price decreased by 0.19% to 5200 yuan/ton [4]. Jujube - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of jujube 2601 increased by 1.82% to 9250 yuan/ton, and the price of the main contract jujube 2605 decreased by 0.11% to 8955 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou super - grade spot price decreased by 0.63% to 9460 yuan/ton, and the first - grade spot price remained unchanged at 8200 yuan/ton [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On January 5, 2026, the price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.09% to 2224 yuan/ton, and the Jinzhou Port FAS price decreased by 0.86% to 2310 yuan/ton [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.24% to 2509 yuan/ton, and the Changchun spot price remained unchanged at 2570 yuan/ton [8]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of the main contract decreased by 25.86% to 1190 yuan/ton, and the price of pork 2605 decreased by 0.45% to 12110 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The Henan spot price decreased by 4.10% to 12850 yuan/ton, and the Shandong spot price decreased by 1.15% to 12900 yuan/ton [10]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3100 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.18% to 2754 yuan/ton [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2440 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.17% to 2361 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of the egg 03 contract increased by 1.39% to 2992 yuan per 500KG, and the price of the egg 04 contract increased by 1.15% to 3214 yuan per 500KG [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.23% to 3.02 yuan per catty, and the egg - chick price remained unchanged at 2.80 yuan per chick [15].

Report Title - Zhengzhou Sugar Expected to Move in a Range Amid International Supply Surplus and Short - term Cost Support [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the expectation of supply surplus has widened, with bearish factors dominant. International sugar prices have continuously broken through support levels and are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Domestically, the new cane sugar season has officially started, with good supply expectations. The import volume has declined, and the impact of international supply has weakened. In the short - term, it is expected to move in a range, with attention on the 5500 resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory Main Views - Internationally, the supply surplus expectation has expanded, and international sugar prices are under pressure. In October, the first half of Brazil's central - southern region produced 2484000 tons of sugar, a 1.25% year - on - year increase. Institutions expect increased sugar production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season. Domestically, import data has declined, and Zhengzhou sugar is moving in a range. New domestic sugar has not been launched yet, and imported sugar still dominates the supply. In October, the forecasted arrival of imported sugar was 174500 tons, a month - on - month decline. The new sugar - cane season is expected to have good supply, and attention should be paid to the sugar yield and subsequent weather [6]. Market Review - In October, the ICE raw sugar 03 contract continuously broke through support levels and declined, while the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract generally maintained a weak and fluctuating pattern [8]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Foreign**: Brazil's sugar production in September and the first half of October increased significantly year - on - year, with a high sugar - making ratio. In September, both the export volume and price of sugar decreased. India and Thailand are expected to have high yields in the 25/26 season due to good weather conditions, and their exportable volumes are expected to increase [10]. - **Supply - Domestic**: As of the end of September 2025, the 24/25 season produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, a 12% year - on - year increase. The 25/26 season is expected to produce 11.7 million tons of sugar, a slight year - on - year increase [10][29]. - **Inventory - Domestic**: As of the end of September, the new industrial sugar inventory was 765000 tons, a 114.2% year - on - year increase. The industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan were 442100 tons and 204700 tons respectively [10]. - **Spot - Domestic**: In October, the spot price of white sugar decreased. As of October 31, the spot quotes in Liuzhou, Kunming, and Nanning were 5730 yuan/ton, 5710 yuan/ton, and 5730 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot index price of white sugar was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 - 200 yuan/ton from the previous month [10][38]. - **Import and Profit - Domestic**: In September, China imported 550000 tons of sugar, and the forecasted arrival of imported sugar in October was 174500 tons. In October, the import price of sugar declined, and the profit from out - of - quota imports increased, making the imported sugar market more competitive [10]. - **Demand - Domestic**: The consumption side is relatively stable. The industrial sugar consumption in 2025 is expected to be 8.586 million tons, an increase of 54000 tons from the previous year [10][47]. Spread Tracking - The report mentions various sugar contract spreads such as 91 spread, 15 spread, 59 spread, and the basis spreads of 9 - month, 1 - month, 5 - month contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [49][51][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The含税 ethanol price is close to the raw sugar spot price, significantly weakening the advantage of sugar production. The high sugar - production ratio may be adjusted downward, and the raw sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom. However, due to oversupply, in the domestic market, the increase in imports has led to the full operation of sugar refineries, and there is still pressure on the spot market. It is expected to stabilize in the short - term, but the overall rebound space is limited. The later strategy is to maintain a short - selling approach on rallies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Spot Market - The spot price of sugar in different regions on September 26, 2025: 5890 yuan/ton in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi; 5810 yuan/ton in Kunming; 5675 yuan/ton in Dali, Yunnan; 5900 yuan/ton in Rizhao, Shandong. The price changes are all 0, and the changes in the basis with SR01 are all 18 [4]. Futures Market - On the futures side, SR09 is 5452 yuan/ton, down 18; SR01 is 5478 yuan/ton, down 7; SR09 - 01 is - 26, down 11 [4]. Exchange Rates and International Futures - Exchange rates: The RMB to US dollar exchange rate is 7.1529, up 0.0052; the Brazilian real to RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee to RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - International futures: The ice raw sugar主力 is 16.35, up 0.06; the London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is 68.82, up 0.02 [4].