Report Title - Zhengzhou Sugar Expected to Move in a Range Amid International Supply Surplus and Short - term Cost Support [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the expectation of supply surplus has widened, with bearish factors dominant. International sugar prices have continuously broken through support levels and are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Domestically, the new cane sugar season has officially started, with good supply expectations. The import volume has declined, and the impact of international supply has weakened. In the short - term, it is expected to move in a range, with attention on the 5500 resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory Main Views - Internationally, the supply surplus expectation has expanded, and international sugar prices are under pressure. In October, the first half of Brazil's central - southern region produced 2484000 tons of sugar, a 1.25% year - on - year increase. Institutions expect increased sugar production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season. Domestically, import data has declined, and Zhengzhou sugar is moving in a range. New domestic sugar has not been launched yet, and imported sugar still dominates the supply. In October, the forecasted arrival of imported sugar was 174500 tons, a month - on - month decline. The new sugar - cane season is expected to have good supply, and attention should be paid to the sugar yield and subsequent weather [6]. Market Review - In October, the ICE raw sugar 03 contract continuously broke through support levels and declined, while the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract generally maintained a weak and fluctuating pattern [8]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Foreign**: Brazil's sugar production in September and the first half of October increased significantly year - on - year, with a high sugar - making ratio. In September, both the export volume and price of sugar decreased. India and Thailand are expected to have high yields in the 25/26 season due to good weather conditions, and their exportable volumes are expected to increase [10]. - **Supply - Domestic**: As of the end of September 2025, the 24/25 season produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, a 12% year - on - year increase. The 25/26 season is expected to produce 11.7 million tons of sugar, a slight year - on - year increase [10][29]. - **Inventory - Domestic**: As of the end of September, the new industrial sugar inventory was 765000 tons, a 114.2% year - on - year increase. The industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan were 442100 tons and 204700 tons respectively [10]. - **Spot - Domestic**: In October, the spot price of white sugar decreased. As of October 31, the spot quotes in Liuzhou, Kunming, and Nanning were 5730 yuan/ton, 5710 yuan/ton, and 5730 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot index price of white sugar was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 - 200 yuan/ton from the previous month [10][38]. - **Import and Profit - Domestic**: In September, China imported 550000 tons of sugar, and the forecasted arrival of imported sugar in October was 174500 tons. In October, the import price of sugar declined, and the profit from out - of - quota imports increased, making the imported sugar market more competitive [10]. - **Demand - Domestic**: The consumption side is relatively stable. The industrial sugar consumption in 2025 is expected to be 8.586 million tons, an increase of 54000 tons from the previous year [10][47]. Spread Tracking - The report mentions various sugar contract spreads such as 91 spread, 15 spread, 59 spread, and the basis spreads of 9 - month, 1 - month, 5 - month contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [49][51][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The含税 ethanol price is close to the raw sugar spot price, significantly weakening the advantage of sugar production. The high sugar - production ratio may be adjusted downward, and the raw sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom. However, due to oversupply, in the domestic market, the increase in imports has led to the full operation of sugar refineries, and there is still pressure on the spot market. It is expected to stabilize in the short - term, but the overall rebound space is limited. The later strategy is to maintain a short - selling approach on rallies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Spot Market - The spot price of sugar in different regions on September 26, 2025: 5890 yuan/ton in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi; 5810 yuan/ton in Kunming; 5675 yuan/ton in Dali, Yunnan; 5900 yuan/ton in Rizhao, Shandong. The price changes are all 0, and the changes in the basis with SR01 are all 18 [4]. Futures Market - On the futures side, SR09 is 5452 yuan/ton, down 18; SR01 is 5478 yuan/ton, down 7; SR09 - 01 is - 26, down 11 [4]. Exchange Rates and International Futures - Exchange rates: The RMB to US dollar exchange rate is 7.1529, up 0.0052; the Brazilian real to RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee to RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - International futures: The ice raw sugar主力 is 16.35, up 0.06; the London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is 68.82, up 0.02 [4].