白糖早报——2025年10月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 | | | | | 日捷古报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 期价 | 现价 | 现价变动 地区 进口原糖加工后价(50%关税) | | 其美 进口价差 | | 库存情况 | | SR2601 | 5446 | | | | 334 | | -164 国储库存约700万吨 | | SR2605 | 5398 | | | | 382 | -116 进口配额194.5万吨 | | | | -10 柳州 | 5780 | 528 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年9月中国进口食糖55万吨，同比增加15万吨；进口 糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.14万吨，同比减少13.51万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic sales of sugar are good, the spot price is firm, and the internal market trend is stronger than the external market. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates upward with a slowly rising center of gravity. A short - term cautious and bullish approach is recommended [5][8] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: SCA Brasil predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6030, the basis is 360 (01 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [5] - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [5] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position increases, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [5] - **Expectation**: Due to good domestic sales, the spot price of sugar is firm, and the internal market trend is stronger than the external market. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates upward with a slowly rising center of gravity. A short - term cautious and bullish approach is recommended [5][8] 3. Today's Focus - No information provided 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation**: Multiple institutions predict a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.04 million tons. Green Pool predicts that the global sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season will increase by 5.3% to 199.17 million tons, and USDA predicts that the global sugar production in the 25/26 season will increase by 4.7% year - on - year, with consumption increasing by 1.4% and a surplus of 11.397 million tons. However, the domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is narrowing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6000 [6][8] - **Price**: The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound in the 25/26 season, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36] - **Import and tariff**: Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the additional import tariff on raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the additional import tariff on raw sugar outside the quota [8] 5. Position Data - No information provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The night - session of foreign sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou sugar should focus on the support around 5800. The adjustment at the current position is basically in place, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips during intraday trading [5][8] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Conab estimates that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season will increase by 4% year - on - year to 45.9 million tons; USDA predicts a 2% increase to 44.7 million tons. Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, approaching the out - of - quota tariff for raw sugar. As of the end of March 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 10.7479 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 5.9958 million tons; the sales rate was 55.79% (49.46% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons year - on - year. The overall situation is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6210, and the basis is 397 (for the 09 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: As of the end of March, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 4.7521 million tons, which is bullish [4] - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5] - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position has increased, but the main trend is not clear, which is bullish [5] - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include good domestic spot sales, the arrival of the Dragon Boat Festival peak season, the inverted price of imported sugar, reduced imports, lower inventory, and increased syrup tariffs. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the expected global supply surplus in the new season [6] 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2017 - 2024 shows changes in initial inventory, total sugar production, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [36] - **Rural Ministry's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2022/23 - 2024/25 (April forecast) includes sugar - crop planting area, harvest area, yield per unit area, sugar production, imports, consumption, balance changes, international and domestic sugar prices [38] - **Brick's Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from 2017 - 2024 shows initial inventory, production, imports, total domestic supply, domestic consumption, total domestic consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [41] 5. Position Data - No relevant content provided