农产品日报 | 2025-11-28 棉价震荡上行，关注套保压力 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13640元/吨，较前一日变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.11%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14716元/吨，较前一日变动+16元/吨，现货基差CF01+1076，较前一日变动+1；3128B棉全国均价14891元/吨， 较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF01+1251，较前一日变动-6。 近期市场资讯，10月孟加拉棉花进口约11.0万吨，环比（15.2万吨）减少27.5%，同比（14.9万吨）减少26.0%，是 自2023年10月以来最小月度进口量。从当月进口来源来看，西非棉进口量占首位，占总进口量的29%；其次是巴西 棉，占比为21%；澳棉排第三，占比为17%。从累计情况来看，2025/26年度（2025年8月-2026年7月）孟加拉国棉 花累计进口量约为39.6万吨，同比减少11%。从进口来源国来看，累计进口西非棉占比仍为最高，达27%；其次为 巴西棉，占比约23%；澳棉排第三，占比为17%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。国际方面，USDA报告大幅上调2025/26 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 28 日星期五 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR601 合约收盘价 5403 元/吨，日涨幅 0.45%。夜盘收于 5411 元/吨；SR605 合约收盘价 5325 元/吨，日涨幅 0.30%。夜盘收于 5335 元/吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1.昨日外盘休市，暂无报价。 2.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5397 元/吨，上涨 9 元/吨；广西新糖报价区间为 5580~5650 元/吨，云南制糖集团陈糖报价 5350~5400 元/吨，新糖报价 5310~5500 | | | | | 元/吨，加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5890 元/吨，集团现货报价全线持平。 | | | | | 3.据不完全统计，当前广西 2025/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 28, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][20][26][36][46] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for different contract spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of May - January was 16 yuan/ton, and the basis of September - January was 6 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of energy commodities such as fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, on November 27, the basis of fuel oil was - 10.13 yuan/ton, and the ratio of INE crude oil to asphalt was 0.1475 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of LLDPE was 56 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2214 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September(10) - January, September(10) - May) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of rebar was 16 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.88 [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of rebar was 127.0 yuan/ton [20] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of copper was 30 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 27, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 16.56, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.95 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 86 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of various agricultural products are presented. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 51 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.83 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of CSI 300 was 22.80 [47] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 152 [47]

2025年11月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆休市，缺乏指引 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：关注现货基差走势 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 | 10 | | 生猪：限仓驱动近端期现背离 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 11 月 28 日 棕榈油：高产边际交易减弱，技术反弹 豆油：区间震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,528 | 1.04% | 8,598 | 0.82% | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold Market** - Market Performance: On Thursday, precious metal prices fluctuated, with London gold reaching $4150 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: Putin discussed a peace plan, China's industrial profits showed changes, and there were various inventory changes in gold and silver [2]. - Trading Strategy: Buy gold at the lower support level, and short - term long silver due to overseas market tensions [2]. - **Silver Market** - Market Performance: Reflects in inventory and price changes in different markets [2]. - Fundamentals: Inventory changes in multiple regions and import data from India [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term long due to overseas market tensions [2]. Base Metals - **Aluminum** - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum main contract closed +0.21% at 21,500 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 150 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants, stable weekly aluminum product start - up rate [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to a warm macro - environment, inventory reduction, and expanding spot discounts [3]. - **Alumina** - Market Performance: The main contract closed +0.15% at 2724 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 18 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: No long - cycle maintenance and production reduction, high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating before large - scale production cuts due to supply - demand surplus and cost support [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 01 contract closed at 9115 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and funds [3]. - Fundamentals: Decrease in furnace start - up, expected decline in south - west start - up rate, and different demand situations in downstream industries [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to trade between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon** - Market Performance: The main 01 contract closed at 55235 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan/ton, with changes in positions and funds [4]. - Fundamentals: Slight decline in weekly production, inventory accumulation, and weakening demand in downstream industries [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected decline in downstream production and market uncertainties [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans are in short - term oscillation [5]. - Fundamentals: Near - term supply contraction, long - term large supply from South America, strong US soybean crushing, and uncertain exports [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for new drivers in the US soybean market, and the domestic market's mid - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - **Corn** - Market Performance: Corn futures prices fluctuate narrowly, with different trends in spot prices in North and Northeast China [5]. - Fundamentals: Supply delay due to weather, low inventory, strong demand from deep - processing industries, and expected increase in new - crop production [5]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to selling hedging opportunities as Northeast supply increases [5]. - **Fats and Oils** - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose due to flood concerns [5]. - Fundamentals: High production in the producing areas, expected inventory accumulation in the near term, and seasonal production reduction in the long term [5]. - Trading Strategy: Trade the flood - related disturbances and pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [5]. - **Sugar** - Market Performance: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5411 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [5]. - Fundamentals: International sugar prices are expected to decline in the long term, and the domestic market faces pressure in the fourth quarter [5]. - Trading Strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton** - Market Performance: US cotton futures prices rebounded overnight, and international crude oil prices stopped falling [6]. - Fundamentals: Changes in international cotton export and import data, and stable domestic downstream demand [6]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices, with a strategy in the 13600 - 13900 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Eggs** - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and spot prices were stable [6]. - Fundamentals: Decrease in laying hen inventory, increased stocking by traders, and short - term strong egg prices with limited sustainability [6]. - Trading Strategy: Egg futures prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Pigs** - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - Fundamentals: Abundant pig supply, expected seasonal increase in demand, and possible concentrated slaughter near the winter solstice [6]. - Trading Strategy: Pig futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE** - Market Performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with stable basis and general market transactions [7]. - Fundamentals: New device production, reduced supply pressure, and weakening downstream demand [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PVC** - Market Performance: V01 closed at 4546, up 1% [7]. - Fundamentals: Low prices, increased inventory, increased supply, and weak demand [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short or conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [7]. - **PTA** - Market Performance: PX and PTA prices showed certain trends, with a specific spot basis [8]. - Fundamentals: High domestic PX supply, short - term PTA supply decline, and overall supply - demand situations in related industries [8]. - Trading Strategy: Take profit on PX long positions, and stop loss on PTA processing - fee short positions [8]. - **Rubber** - Market Performance: RU2601 oscillated upward, with continued night - session gains [8]. - Fundamentals: Stable raw material prices, different production situations in tire factories [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term strong oscillation due to rainfall affecting production [8]. - **Glass** - Market Performance: FG01 closed at 1060, up 1.9% [8]. - Fundamentals: Bottom - up rebound due to cold - repair and cost support, high inventory, and weak real - estate data [8]. - Trading Strategy: Exit reverse arbitrage due to upstream production cuts [8]. - **PP** - Market Performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with stable basis and general market transactions [8]. - Fundamentals: New device production, increased supply, and weakening demand [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak oscillation, and in the long term, short at high prices or conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [8]. - **MEG** - Market Performance: East China spot price and basis are provided [9]. - Fundamentals: High - level supply, inventory accumulation, and situations in related industries [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices for the 01 contract and take partial profit on short positions [9]. - **Benzene and Styrene** - Market Performance: The main contract fluctuated slightly, with a certain market trading atmosphere [9]. - Fundamentals: Inventory situations in pure benzene and styrene, and weak downstream demand [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, with limited upward space [9]. - **Soda Ash** - Market Performance: sa01 closed at 1190, up 1% [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand balance, high inventory, and downstream demand situations [9]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to supply - demand balance [9].

中泰期货： 经纪商斯通艾克斯（StoneX）周三发布的报告称，巴西2026/27年度中南部糖产量预计为4150万吨，低 于上一年度的4020万吨。 国内一方面新作开机陆续增加，压力仍需要兑现，但期价已经下探至常规成本附近，限制糖价下跌空 间，但是进口糖成本较低令郑糖跟随原糖反弹运行，且10月进口量同环比均增加也给市场带来压力。中 国农业农村部11月供需报告上调产量，下调需求，预期期末库存增加，对远期而言承压。逻辑与观点： 内糖供需面预期仍偏空，新糖上市压力令糖价承压，成本支撑限制跌幅，走势偏空，短线反弹，观望为 宜。 近日广西又有多家糖厂开榨，截至11月26日，广西开榨糖厂总数超过20价，预计到11月底广西开榨糖厂 总数将达到31-35家，逐步进入开榨高峰，新糖源源不断上市。 消息面 光大期货： 外媒报道，巴西航运机构Williams发布的数据显示，截至11月26日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的船只 数量为56艘，此前一周为61艘。港口等待装运的食糖数量为206.72万吨，较此前一周的229.94万吨下降 10.1%。 原糖方面，巴西本榨季趋于收榨，有机构调低对于26/27榨季巴西产量的预估，北半球方面仍保持增 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-11-27 生猪供给压力持续，现货依旧偏弱 油脂：马棕11月产量预期增幅收窄，市场情绪有企稳迹象 蛋白粕：现实与预期博弈，M15价差走低 玉米/淀粉：阶段性供需偏紧，价格高位震荡 生猪：供给压力持续，现货依旧偏弱 天然橡胶：产区洪水影响有待进一步观察 合成橡胶：延续区间震荡 棉花：多空博弈下，短期延续区间震荡 白糖：中长期驱动向下，短期成本端存支撑 纸浆：针叶现货走势疲软，期货近远逻辑分化 双胶纸：原料走弱，双胶纸低位区间震荡 原木：原木走弱，进入估值深水区 风险因素：养殖情绪、疫情、政策。 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：供给压⼒持续，现货依旧偏弱 主要逻辑：（1）供应：短期，月度供应充裕，规模场11月计划日均出栏 量较10月实际日均出栏量小幅微增。中期，2025年上半年全国能繁母猪产 能尚在高位波动，并且1月~10月新生仔猪数量持续环比增加，按照养殖周 期推算，预计2026年一季度之前商品猪出栏量持续过剩。长期，2025年三 季度能繁母猪产能开始出现去化迹象，农业部样本7~10月母猪环降，钢联 样本8~9月母猪环降、10月微增， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 27, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from November 20 to November 26, 2025, shows a decreasing trend from 32.6 yuan/ton on November 20 to 17.6 yuan/ton on November 26 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from November 20 to November 26, 2025, is presented, with some fluctuations in the basis values [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP shows different trends. For example, the basis of rubber decreased from - 400 yuan/ton on November 20 to - 545 yuan/ton on November 26 [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The differences between 5 - month and 1 - month, 9 - month and 1 - month, and 9 - month and 5 - month contracts for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are provided. For instance, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber is 65 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads between LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3* methanol from November 20 to November 26, 2025, are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on November 26 is 2255 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the basis of螺纹钢, 铁矿石, 焦炭, and 焦煤 shows different changes. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 increased from 140 yuan/ton on November 20 to 171 yuan/ton on November 26 [20] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The differences between 5 - month and 1 - month, 9 - month (10) and 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) and 5 - month contracts for螺纹钢, 铁矿石, 焦炭, and 焦煤 are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of螺纹钢 is 20 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads between螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, 焦炭/焦煤, and 螺 - 热卷 from November 20 to November 26, 2025, are shown. For example, the螺/矿 ratio on November 26 is 3.89 [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 20 to November 26, 2025, is provided. For example, the basis of copper decreased from 170 yuan/ton on November 20 to - 20 yuan/ton on November 26 [29] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 26, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, and CIF prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are given. For example, the LME spread of copper is 30.83 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the basis of豆一, 豆二, 豆粕, 豆油, 玉米, etc., shows different trends. For example, the basis of豆一 increased from - 87 yuan/ton on November 20 to - 74 yuan/ton on November 26 [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The differences between 5 - month and 1 - month, 9 - month and 1 - month, and 9 - month and 5 - month contracts for various agricultural products are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of豆一 is 54 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads between豆一/玉米, 豆二/玉米, 豆油/豆粕, etc., from November 20 to November 26, 2025, are shown. For example, the豆一/玉米 ratio on November 26 is 1.83 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the basis of沪深300, 上证50, 中证500, and 中证1000 shows different changes. For example, the basis of沪深300 increased from 12.85 on November 24 to 24.63 on November 26 [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The differences between the next - month and current - month, next - quarter and current - quarter contracts for沪深300, 上证50, 中证500, and 中证1000 are given. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of沪深300 is - 140 [47]

5万吨，重新回到年内高位水平，进口供应压力明显，短期糖价暂无止跌迹象，预计弱势延续。 白糖产业日报 2025-11-26 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5379 | -8 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 394080 | -12249 1135 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 7693 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -62644 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Indexes are expected to stabilize in the short - term after recent declines. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and technology growth remains the market's main line, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market in the fourth quarter may see an improved supply - demand pattern, but it will generally remain volatile, with attention paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metals and non - metals in the non - ferrous sector are expected to show different trends of shock, strength, or weakness. For example, copper and aluminum prices may strengthen, while zinc and lead prices may be weak in the short - term [12][14][16][17]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom and in a weak state respectively [36][37]. - For energy and chemical products, different strategies are recommended according to different product fundamentals, such as short - term waiting and long - short strategies [55][56][58]. - In the agricultural product sector, different strategies are proposed for different products, such as short - selling hogs and eggs at high prices and waiting for opportunities to close positions [77][79]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The call between Chinese and US leaders was positive. The RMB appreciated. Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 revenue increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and its cloud business grew by 34%. A Fed official called for significant rate cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy supports the capital market and technology growth is the main line [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond futures had different changes on Tuesday. An official press conference on consumption policies will be held. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's dovish stance and potential changes in leadership supported precious metals. The inventory of silver on the SHFE increased slightly, but the supply of silver was still tight [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium declined. The import loss of domestic copper increased [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is over 80%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream start - up rate is strong. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and declined. The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and the domestic inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined slightly. The import of zinc ore decreased significantly in October, and the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The supply of zinc ore is tight due to winter stockpiling, but it is expected to loosen after stockpiling. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. The supply of lead ingots increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries continued to decline. The domestic and overseas inventories increased [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provided support. The social inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price of carbonate lithium increased, and the futures price of LC2605 rose [22]. - **Strategy**: The upstream expects the supply - demand situation to improve in 2026, and the mid - stream has large long - term contracts. There are differences in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina decreased. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic production capacity is over - supplied [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the over - supply pattern of alumina is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The spot price increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price increased slightly, but the demand in related fields is weak. Stainless steel prices are expected to be volatile [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The inventory decreased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was high [31]. - **Strategy**: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The overseas shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile within a range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and the inventory increased slightly. Soda ash prices decreased, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is strong, and glass prices are expected to be volatile at the bottom. Soda ash is in an over - supply situation and is expected to be weak [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices decreased slightly. The market risk preference weakened, and the price of coking coal decreased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: The market risk preference has weakened, but there are expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose significantly. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production of polysilicon decreased [42][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations. Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices unexpectedly declined. The export of natural rubber from Thailand increased in October. The tyre - factory start - up rate was weak [48][50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - biased short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and the prices of refined oil products decreased. The inventory of crude oil increased, and the inventory of refined oil products decreased [54]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decreased slightly. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand changed little. The port inventory decreased [56]. - **Strategy**: The positive factors on the supply side are being realized, and the market is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand improved. The enterprise inventory decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply of styrene was under pressure, and the demand improved [59]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short - term due to the reduction of port inventory [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was stable. The processing fee increased [65]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand may be stable. The processing fee has limited upward space, and PXN has a risk of valuation correction [66]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices decreased slightly. The load of PX was high, and the load of PTA was low. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy**: PX is in a state of slight over - supply, and there is a risk of valuation correction [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decreased slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to be low and volatile. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [73][74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices continued to decline. The supply exceeded the demand, and the market demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was stable, and the demand was in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices were oscillating, and domestic soybean meal prices were stable. The global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed [80][81]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and soybean meal prices are expected to be oscillating [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats decreased significantly. The export of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and the production increased [83]. - **Strategy**: The supply of palm oil is large, but the inventory may reverse. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn to a long - biased strategy if production decreases [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic import profit window is open [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices continued to rise. The downstream start - up rate was medium - weak, and the global cotton production increased [88]. - **Strategy**: The cotton market has no strong driving force in the short - term, and cotton prices are expected to be oscillating [89].