Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast [2]. - ICE raw sugar futures fell on Tuesday, retreating from a five - month high on Monday. The increase in sugar production in Thailand, a major exporter, restricts the rise of sugar prices. The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.03 cents or 0.20%, settling at 15.52 cents per pound. With Brazilian sugar not yet being crushed and the international market in a news vacuum, raw sugar prices lack more upward drivers and are expected to remain volatile [2]. - In the domestic market, the beet sugar production in the north has ended, basically in line with expectations, while the cane sugar production has exceeded expectations. The domestic sugar production is expected to be around 12 million tons. Currently, the sugar market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and there is some pressure on prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,356 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan; the main contract position was 243,255 hands, a decrease of 25,931 hands [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16,862, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 113,172 hands, an increase of 7,706 hands [2]. - The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 0, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,252 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,465 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,395 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The total export volume of Brazilian sugar in the month was 222.97 million tons, a decrease of 12 million tons [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 1,138 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was - 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar was 240,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar was 520,000 tons [2]. - The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 199.23 million tons, an increase of 44.17 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Yunnan was 69.75 million tons, an increase of 16.55 million tons [2]. - The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 565.13 million tons, an increase of 162.23 million tons; the cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan was 149.34 million tons, an increase of 50.93 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar was 359.04 million tons; the monthly production volume of soft drinks was 1,342.1 million tons, an increase of 296.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.56%, a decrease of 4.86%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.56%, a decrease of 4.85% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 11.16%, an increase of 0.29%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 9.4%, an increase of 0.16% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.3% to 69.98 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased 0.71% to 15,295 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 21,505 lots to 493,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan from the previous day. The USDA planting area forecast report shows that the U.S. cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to be 9.64 million acres, much higher than the previous forecast of 9.23 million acres. In the domestic market, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is likely to decline, but there are differences in the reduction range. The far - month contracts are relatively strong. Historically, when domestic and global cotton production and inventory - to - sales ratios decline year - on - year, the average annual increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices exceeds 9%, and the peak increase within the year exceeds 25%. As of now, the increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices in 2026 is lower than the historical average. In the short term, there are many market disturbances, and it is necessary to pay attention to planting intentions and the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced in early April. The market may fluctuate repeatedly in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: A consulting company predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 crushing season may decrease by 14.2%, with the total sugar exports expected to be 29 million tons, lower than 33.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to drop to 40.3 million tons, compared with 43.5 million tons in the previous season. Ethanol production is expected to increase significantly, with the total production (including corn - based fuel) expected to grow by 10.7% to 42.58 billion liters. The spot price of raw sugar is suppressed by hedging orders, and the futures price returns to around 15.5 cents per pound. Domestic sugar mills are gradually ending the crushing season, and inventory is accumulating seasonally. Although domestic sugar prices are strong due to macro - sentiment and high raw sugar prices, other commodities are showing signs of returning to the fundamental logic. It is necessary to pay attention to the logic switch in the future. For now, it is treated as a range - bound market, waiting for short - selling opportunities, and paying attention to the sales and production data in March [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 135 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,555 yuan, up 117 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 16,691 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan, and the national spot price is 16,850 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 33 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 42 yuan, up 13 yuan. The spot price in Nanning is 5,420 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan, and the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,440 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan [3]. 3.2 Market Information - **Cotton**: On March 31, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 12,420, down 15 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 489. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions on March 31 were: 16,691 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,850 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,889 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 17,036 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load on March 31 was 57.9, down 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 16.8, up 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 60.6, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 23.5, down 0.1 [4]. - **Sugar**: On March 31, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,440 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts on March 31 was 16,862, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4][5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price index of cotton and sugar, with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a broad impact on various commodity futures markets [1][8][9][10]. - Different commodity markets show diverse trends and characteristics, with some markets being influenced by supply - demand relationships, while others are more affected by geopolitical events and policy factors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 3.51% to $4668 per ounce, and the international silver price rose 7.10% to $75.01 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There are signs of easing in the US - Iran conflict, but the conflict is not over [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a pull - back to buy gold; for silver, suggest gradually taking profits on previous short positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated strongly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The authenticity of the news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees is to be verified. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper remains tight, and the spot of flat - water copper in East and South China is traded at a discount of 60 yuan and a premium of 50 yuan respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% to 24,875 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 245 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $3475 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The attack on core aluminum plants in the Middle East leads to expectations of supply contraction, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate strongly. Suggest buying on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 3.88% to 2827 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 118 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the release of new production capacity in Guangxi, the pattern of oversupply is further deepened. It is expected that alumina prices will oscillate weakly. Suggest waiting and seeing, and focus on the implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 31, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 23,480 yuan per ton and 16,500 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 60 yuan and + 5 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 23,480 yuan per ton and - 16,500 yuan per ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 0.68 and 68.8 dollars per ton respectively. The seven - place zinc inventory on March 30 was 248,200 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to March 26, and the five - place lead inventory on March 30 was 57,500 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to March 26 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead ingot inventory is accelerating its depletion, and the lead price shows a stop - falling signal. However, the import window is open, and the lead battery enters the traditional off - season in April. With the co - existence of the resumption of production of secondary lead and new overhauls, it is expected that the lead price will continue to oscillate narrowly. In the zinc market, the disturbance at the mine end intensifies, the import processing fee drops to a negative value, the domestic smelters have strong demand for ore, and the social inventory continues to deplete to below 250,000 tons. The tower and export orders support consumption, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - sentiment [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, pay attention to the implementation of smelter overhauls. If the inventory depletion continues, try to buy on dips. For zinc, the fundamentals improve, but the macro - risk is large. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8355 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 1.47%, the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 201,800 lots (- 8.53%), and the trading volume decreased by 11,006 lots to 172,049 lots (- 6.01%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 171 million to 3.037 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 22,313 lots (+ 24) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of weekly industrial silicon furnaces in operation is flat compared to the previous period. With the year - on - year decline in electricity prices in the southwest region, enterprises' willingness to resume production increases, and there is an expectation of increased production in the future. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry resumed work in March, and the monthly production capacity is gradually released, with the expected monthly output approaching 90,000 tons; the output of the organic silicon industry is stable, and the price trend is stable. The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, but the industry's start - up rate increased to 59.5%, reaching a new high this year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to whether subsequent measures such as coordinated market control and joint price stabilization will be introduced after last week's meeting. The organic silicon industry will hold a meeting in Jinan on April 2 to discuss production cuts and price increases. In the short term, although the market pays attention to the support level increase brought by energy costs, the high - level hedging pressure is obvious. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 8100 - 8900 [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan per ton (- 14,420), with a closing price decrease of 8.40% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, a large amount of funds flowed out, and the market was under pressure to fall. The expectation of the continuation of the US - Iran war weakened, and the concern about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia affecting lithium ore mining is expected to ease. The export ban in Zimbabwe has no progress, and its supply disturbance will gradually be reflected in mid - to late April. However, the expectation of the strengthening of the preference for new - energy vehicles and energy - storage consumption due to oil price fluctuations remains unchanged, and the trend of the weekly demand recovery at the power end is clear. The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is $2360 per ton, an increase of $25 per ton compared to the previous day, and the SMM electric carbon price is 163,000 (- 1500) yuan per ton. On the supply side, the weekly output is 24,814 tons, a month - on - month increase of 628 tons, due to the recovery of the spodumene production line. SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% compared to January. On the demand side, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in March is 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% compared to January; the production schedule of ternary materials in March is 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% compared to January. In terms of inventory, the short - term weekly inventory shows a slight accumulation. The export ban of lithium ore in Zimbabwe has no progress, and it is expected that the supply gap of at least one month will be gradually reflected in mid - to late April. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the policy progress in Zimbabwe. The sample inventory is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons in inventory, among which the smelting link has an inventory increase of 724 tons, the downstream link has an inventory increase of 552 tons, and the trader link has an inventory decrease of 660 tons. The total inventory days are 27.9 (+ 0.2) days. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 (- 19,746) lots. Pay attention to the growth rate slope of new warehouse receipts after centralized cancellation. The funds precipitated in the market are 30.1 (- 3.78) billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With supply disturbances and a clear trend of demand recovery, it is expected to oscillate widely. Buy on dips at the lower edge of the range and be cautious about chasing high [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 35,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 3.69%, the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots (- 0.37%), and the trading volume decreased by 5768 lots to 10,763 lots (- 34.89%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 16 million to 1.758 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 11,030 lots (+ 10) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly polysilicon output is flat compared to the previous period, and the month - on - month increase in industry inventory has significantly narrowed. The production schedule in April is basically flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, the prices of downstream photovoltaic - related products still continue to decline, but the decline rate is gradually slowing down. The expected production schedule of components in April is reduced by 7.26GW month - on - month. From January to February 2026, the newly - installed domestic photovoltaic capacity decreased by 17.71% year - on - year, with an average monthly installed capacity of 16GW, showing a stable performance. The export data of battery cells and components in February decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year trends were divergent. The component exports to Europe increased slightly year - on - year [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon has been continuously declining this week, and the market sentiment is weak. The current market still needs to fully digest the negative factors such as the weakening of the spot market. Coupled with the relatively high volatility of the variety, it is recommended to focus on tracking the actual downstream procurement situation and the transaction order price in the short term, and mainly wait and see in operation [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There is news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees, but the authenticity of the news is to be verified. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the spot is still traded at a high premium. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing rapidly every day, and the London structure is 375 dollars contango [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3124 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 0.3% to 6.63 million tons month - on - month, and was basically flat last week. The rebar out - bound volume in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons, compared with 76,000 tons last week; the inventory was 1.548 million tons, compared with 1.522 million tons last week and 1.127 million tons in the same period last year. The building material demand has marginally improved but is still slightly weaker year - on - year. Fortunately, the supply has decreased year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The plate demand has marginally stabilized, and the direct and indirect exports remain at a relatively high level. The inventory depletion speed is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The steel mill profit is poor, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot price is a bit weak in following the rise, and the futures discount has narrowed [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of rebar 2605 cautiously or choose the opportunity to exit. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 815 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron ore arrival volume increased by 1.237 million tons to 22.802 million tons month - on - month, and the shipment volume decreased by 6.72 million tons to 24.724 million tons month - on - month. The iron ore supply - demand margin remains stable. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coking plant proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope is limited. The supply side conforms to the seasonal law. The furnace charge inventory of steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days remain above the historical average level. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 24 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports is low, and there is a certain structural contradiction. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is significantly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1147.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons to 22.82 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coke proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end maintains a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The port and mine - mouth inventories are high, while the inventories in other links are low, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures have a premium over the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, with the futures valuation being high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of coking coal 2605 cautiously. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose because the US soybean planting area intention was slightly lower than the market expectation [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term, and there is an expectation of increased production capacity for new US soybean crops in the far - term. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports conform to the seasonality. In general, the expectation of global supply - demand looseness remains unchanged [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the looseness suppresses the price. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and crude oil; in China, it also follows the cost side. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the arrival volume [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price declined, and the corn spot price decreased in the Northeast and slightly increased in the North China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the grain - selling progress exceeds 80%, but the progress is slow. The mentality in the producing areas, especially in North China, has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and both the transaction rate and the premium have declined. Coupled with the good growth of new - season wheat seedlings, the wheat price has weakened. After the spot price rose to a high level, the expectation of policy regulation has increased, and the spot price is expected to adjust weakly. Pay attention to the auction situation of the minimum - purchase - price wheat and the changes in the purchase - and - sale rhythm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since the transaction rate and premium of the wheat auction have both declined, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. White Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 0

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Cotton maintains a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual planting areas in April, especially the release of the U.S. cotton planting area tonight, as there is an expected tightening of supply in the new quarter [1] - The bottom - building trend of sugar is becoming clearer, and it may continue to fluctuate upward after experiencing the stage of maximum inventory pressure in the short - term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - StoneX keeps the estimate of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton production at 3.74 million tons, but caution is needed due to weather and growth conditions, especially in Mato Grosso where cotton is in the early growth stage and April rainfall will affect yield [1] - Trump's visit to China is scheduled for May 14 - 15, which is expected to stabilize Sino - U.S. trade and may lead to tariff cuts and U.S. cotton purchases [1] Sugar - From March 27 to 30, 10 sugar mills in Guangxi completed the sugar - pressing process. As of March 30, 38 sugar mills in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi have completed the process, with a total daily sugar - cane pressing capacity of 352,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 234,500 tons [2] - The estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,388 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,586 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota compared with the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,262 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 64 yuan/ton [2] - With the strengthening of the outer - market raw sugar and the weakening of the inner - market, the price difference between the inside and outside is narrowing, and the downward space of sugar is expected to shrink [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current climate is in a weak La Niña state, which is significantly weakening and transitioning to ENSO neutral. The probability of neutrality from March to May is about 60%, the probability of the continuation of weak La Niña is about 30%, and the probability of El Niño is about 10% [1] - Affected by La Niña, the overall precipitation in the central - southern part of Brazil is low, the temperature is high, and the soil humidity is low. It is expected that the precipitation in the central - southern part of Brazil will fall to a seasonally low level in late March, with low soil humidity and falling temperature. As La Niña fades, precipitation in Brazil is expected to increase and the temperature to fall [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugarcane Growth Conditions and Stages - Different growth stages of sugarcane have different temperature, precipitation, and light requirements. For example, the germination stage requires a soil moisture content of 20% - 30% and a temperature of 26 - 32°C; the tillering - elongation stage requires a daily average temperature of ≥25°C and a large amount of water, accounting for 55% - 60% of the whole growth period [10] - Different countries and regions have different sugarcane growth seasons. In Brazil, the central - southern region is in the tillering - elongation stage in 2 - 7 months and the harvesting - pressing stage in 7 - 10 months; in India, the sowing - germination stage is from July to September, and the tillering - elongation stage is from September to December [10] Sugarcane Production and Trade in Different Regions - Brazil is the country with the largest sugarcane planting area in the world. About 50% - 60% of its sugarcane is used to produce ethanol, and its sugar production depends on the profit comparison between sugar and ethanol. It is also the largest sugar exporter, with sugar exports accounting for 75% - 80% of its production [17] - India is the second - largest sugar - producing country, with its production affected by natural factors. It is also the largest sugar - consuming country, and its production determines whether it exports sugar [17] - Thailand is the second - largest sugar exporter most of the time, with an annual production of about 10 million tons and exports accounting for 70% - 85% of its production [17] Sugarcane Production in China - In China, the sugarcane planting area in the south is relatively stable, while the beet planting area in the north is determined by farmers according to planting income. Guangxi is the largest sugar - producing area in China, accounting for more than 60%, and Chongzuo is the "Sugar Capital" of China, accounting for 9% of the national sugar - producing area [15] Weather Conditions in Brazilian Sugarcane Producing Areas - The central - southern part of Brazil is in the sugarcane tillering stage, which requires a continuous high - temperature environment (effective accumulated temperature of 5000 - 6500°C) and a water - holding capacity of 65% - 70%. Drought can lead to fewer tillers and insufficient effective seedlings [1] - The precipitation in the central - southern part of Brazil has improved recently, and the soil humidity has also improved [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply-demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season, with the northern hemisphere entering the key planting period. In China, there is a significant increase in consumption due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, and the inventory at the end of the year may still be tight. The medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to continue to move up, but the short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy factors [2] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar remains strong, and the domestic sugar is in a stage of inventory accumulation with higher - than - expected production increase. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens, but it has strong support below due to the Middle East situation [6][7] - **Pulp**: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the demand in China is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the port inventory in China remains high, and the short - term pulp price may be mainly in low - level consolidation [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 15,385 yuan/ton yesterday, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.06%. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,656 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 16,823 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. - US cotton inspection: From March 20th to 26th, 2025/26, the US graded and inspected 0.37 million tons of cotton, with 82.2% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 3.0544 million tons, with 81.7% meeting the requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: The Middle East conflict causes large fluctuations in oil prices, and the macro - level impact on cotton prices needs to be monitored. The global supply - demand pattern in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production increased significantly, but the consumption increase due to downstream spindle capacity expansion is obvious. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season in the textile market has good expectations, and the commercial inventory is being depleted quickly. The domestic new crop is expected to reduce production, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to move up [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy - issued quotas. Focus on the new - year target price policy, the reduction range of planting area, and possible reserve - releasing policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,441 yuan/ton yesterday, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.42%. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - Brazil's sugar production: In the first half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 1.309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 552,000 tons; the sugar production was 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 million tons. From the 2025/26 season to the first half of March, the cumulative sugar production was 40.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 282,000 tons [4][5] Market Analysis - International: The raw sugar remains in a strong pattern. Due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict, the new - season sugar - making ratio in Brazil may further decrease, and the short - term external market is greatly affected by the international situation. - Domestic: The sugarcane harvesting progress is significantly delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, and sugar is still in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory. The domestic sugar import volume from January to February also increased significantly year - on - year [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens, but it has strong support below. Treat it with an oscillatory mindset in the short term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,182 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.38%. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,835 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the past two years, the overseas new production capacity has been limited, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. - Demand: In the past two years, a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation in China, but the terminal effective demand is insufficient. The raw material procurement of downstream paper mills is cautious. The port inventory in China remains at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and the demand for pulp raw materials is expected to increase marginally [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, the port inventory is difficult to reduce, and the short - term pulp price may be mainly in low - level consolidation [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Sugar**: The global sugar surplus situation in the 2025/26 season has improved. The international raw sugar price has strengthened due to factors such as the high - price of Brazilian ethanol and the possible lower - than - expected sugar production in India. In China, the sugar production is expected to slow down as southern sugar mills start to shut down, and the domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. The Zhengzhou sugar futures may rise in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [4]. - **Pulp**: The game between buyers and sellers in the wood pulp spot market continues. The downstream demand for finished paper is approaching the peak season, but the positive impact of seasonal demand fluctuations is not obvious. The cost - side support for pulp has increased, but the upward drive for pulp prices is limited in the short term. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4][5]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The start - up rate of double - offset paper has rebounded after the Spring Festival, but the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The cost - side upward drive is not strong. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short term, and it is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The external market has limited new negative factors, and the domestic market is digesting the negative news of increased imports. The medium - term support for cotton prices remains, and the futures price is expected to enter a support range and return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - **Apple**: The decline in apple futures prices is mainly due to differences in the value of taking delivery. The supply - side support remains, but the consumption - side support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [9]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price is in a low - level weak shock. The spot inventory is gradually reaching its seasonal peak and then declining. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - **Apple 2605**: Return to wait - and - see. The supply - side support remains, but the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price continues to fluctuate in a high - level range. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - **Jujube 2605**: Short - term buy on dips. The expected reduction in production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to reach its peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - **Sugar 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved. The southern sugar mills in China are starting to shut down, and the supply - demand fundamentals are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support range is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - **Pulp 2605**: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - market price of broad - leaf pulp has driven the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply - demand situation of bleached softwood kraft pulp is limited. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Range operation. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn has put short - term pressure on the market, but the outer - market has stabilized and rebounded, and the medium - term upward trend of the futures price remains unchanged. The support range is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure range is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the trading volume in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume for the Tomb - sweeping Festival is acceptable. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a decrease of 117 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The downstream customers mainly purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 season in the state of Maharashtra is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, 2026, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also decreased. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the same period last year. As of March 30, 25/26 season in Guangxi, 37 sugar mills have shut down, with a shutdown capacity of 332,000 tons per day [24]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, Chinese buyers returned to the market. The price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and sellers announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and watching by buyers. The terminal users' resistance sentiment intensified, the domestic market trading was weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increased by 205,000 tons [27]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the start - up load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [28]. - **Cotton Market**: As of March 29, 2026, 1,100 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton year processed and carried out notarized inspection on cotton, with an inspection quantity of 33,712,814 bales and an inspection weight of 7.61 million tons. From March 20 to 26, 2026, the United States graded and inspected 3,700 tons of cotton in the 2025/26 season, and 82.2% of the lint met the delivery requirements of ICE cotton futures [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9863 | - 104 | - 1.04% | | Jujube 2605 | 8775 | - 95 | - 1.07% | | Sugar 2605 | 5441 | - 23 | - 0.42% | | Pulp 2605 | 5182 | - 20 | - 0.38% | | Cotton 2605 | 15385 | - 10 | - 0.06% | [30] - **Spot Market Review** | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5460 | 0 | - 720 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5180 | - 40 | - 1300 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16823 | 9 | 1959 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no text description of the basis situation, only relevant figure references are provided. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1100 | - 100 | 1006 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 385 | - 35 | - 80 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 26 | - 3 | - 127 | Oscillate | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 130 | 5 | 15 | Oscillate weakly | Short on rallies | [55] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no text description of the futures position situation, only relevant figure references are provided. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 4273 | 0 | - 2341 | | Sugar | 16862 | 520 | - 10548 | | Pulp | 188163 | 2601 | - 187102 | | Cotton | 12435 | 1 | 3160 | [87] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no text description of the option - related data, only relevant figure references are provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the content. The report mainly provides daily arbitrage data for various futures varieties on March 31, 2026. 3. Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of thermal coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026. The basis values were -50.4, -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4 respectively, and the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were all 0.0 during this period [2]. II. Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: It includes basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from March 24 to March 30, 2026. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on March 30 was 540.36, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1641 [8]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on March 30 was -190 [10]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was -800 [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on March 30 was 3360 [11]. III. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on March 30 was 111.0 [20][21]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was -44.0 [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the rebar to iron ore ratio on March 30 was 3.85 [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of copper on March 30 was -380 [30]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (82.55) [33]. V. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans on March 30 was 6 [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans was -54 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios and spreads of various agricultural products from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the ratio of soybeans to corn on March 30 was 1.94 [40]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on March 30 was 77.95 [51]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was -19.8 [51].

Group 1 - The current market sentiment indicates a lack of clear direction, with precious metals not performing as expected despite global turmoil, suggesting it may not be the right time to invest [1] - Oil positions have been cleared due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. actions and geopolitical tensions, leading to a cautious approach in re-entering the market [1] - The U.S. stock market is undergoing a significant adjustment, and the A-share market is also viewed as unfavorable, with no clear opportunities arising from military spending announcements [1] Group 2 - There is speculation that agricultural products may see price increases, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [1] - Some analysts suggest investing in chemical products and raw materials as a strategy to capitalize on expected price hikes [4] - The overall sentiment in the capital markets reflects a lack of confidence in the analysis of the ongoing war, with many traders feeling uninformed about the potential outcomes [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Oil price disturbances continue, and it operates in a high - level shock [2][4]. - Soybean oil: The driving force of the soybean system is not significant, and the RVO positive news is fully priced [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and it may fluctuate weakly [2][10]. - Soybean: The state reserve continues to offer soybeans for sale, and the market adjusts and fluctuates [2][10]. - Corn: It operates in a shock [2][13]. - Sugar: It fluctuates strongly [2][17]. - Cotton: The domestic market lacks new driving forces [2][21]. - Eggs: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts [2][25]. - Pigs: The weight reduction is less than expected, and the price center will move down again [2][28]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the purchases of oil mills [2][31]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil, Soybean Oil 3.1.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,768 yuan/ton with a 1.60% increase, and night - session closing price was 9,692 yuan/ton with a - 0.78% decrease; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,688 yuan/ton with a 0.49% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,648 yuan/ton with a - 0.46% decrease [5]. - Spot: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,650 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton with no change [5]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 118 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 332 yuan/ton [5]. 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - The EPA finalized the renewable fuel blending obligations for 2026 and 2027, the highest in the program's history. In 2026, the total renewable fuel obligation was 25.82 billion RINs, and in 2027, it was 25.98 billion RINs [6]. - Malaysia is taking measures to ensure fertilizer supply due to the shortage caused by the Middle East conflict [7]. - Brazil's Paraná state is expected to produce 21.89 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, lower than the February estimate [7]. - In the 13th week of 2026 (March 21 - 27), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.8352 million tons, a decrease of 0.1553 million tons from the previous week and 0.1021 million tons lower than the estimated volume [7]. 3.2 Soybean Meal, Soybean 3.2.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price was 4,553 yuan/ton with a - 1.36% decrease, and night - session closing price was 4,554 yuan/ton with a - 0.57% decrease; DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2,937 yuan/ton with a - 0.47% decrease, and night - session closing price was 2,943 yuan/ton with a + 0.34% increase [10]. - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in different regions had different changes, and the spot price of soybeans in the Northeast remained stable [10]. - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 27,500 tons, and the inventory was not available [10]. 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 27, CBOT soybeans closed down due to profit - taking after the EPA announced the renewable fuel standards [10][12]. - The EPA's new regulations require an over 60% increase in biodiesel and renewable diesel production and consumption compared to 2025, and the proportion of fuel quotas transferred from small refineries to large refineries is raised from 50% to 70% [12]. - Some analysts expect farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn due to high fertilizer costs, and the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3 - 5 million acres this year [12]. - Private exporters reported selling 105,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery [12]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot: The price of Jinzhou's closing - out was 2,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price of Guangdong Shekou was 2,510 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [14]. - Futures: C2605's day - session closing price was 2,369 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% decrease, and night - session closing price was 2,361 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% decrease; C2607's day - session closing price was 2,387 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% decrease, and night - session closing price was 2,379 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% decrease [14]. - Spread: The basis of the main 05 contract was 11 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 07 inter - period spread was - 18 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.2 Macro and Industry News - The price of northern corn for bulk shipping to ports increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping also increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of Northeast corn increased, while the price of North China corn was stable or decreased [15]. 3.4 Sugar 3.4.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price: The original sugar price was 15.75 cents/pound with a - 0.1 decrease; the mainstream spot price was 5,450 yuan/ton with no change; the futures main - contract price was 5,464 yuan/ton with a 1 increase [17]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread was - 23 yuan/ton with a - 1 decrease; the 9 - 1 spread was - 147 yuan/ton with a - 5 decrease; the mainstream spot basis was - 14 yuan/ton with a - 1 decrease [17]. 3.4.2 Macro and Industry News - As of March 15, the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season increased by 10% year - on - year. China imported 520,000 tons of sugar from January to February, an increase of 440,000 tons [17]. - As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons, and the sugar - making rate was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.01 percentage points year - on - year [17]. - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [18]. - ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 2025/26 season (previously 1.63 million tons), and a shortage of 3.46 million tons in the 2024/25 season [18]. 3.5 Cotton 3.5.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2605's day - session closing price was 15,395 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% decrease, and night - session closing price was 15,435 yuan/ton with a 0.26% increase; CY2605's day - session closing price was 21,435 yuan/ton with a - 0.95% decrease, and night - session closing price was 21,415 yuan/ton with a - 0.09% decrease [21]. - Spot: The price of northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,644 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of southern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [21]. - Spread: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the spread between northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [21]. 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - The cotton spot basis was generally stable. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang's machine - picked cotton was in the range of CF05 + 1350 - 1450, and that of Shandong and Henan's warehouses was in the range of CF05 + 1550 - 1850 [22]. - The quotation of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable, and the market trading was dull. The new orders and inquiries for conventional yarn and medium - low - count yarn were few, and the shipment of air - jet spun yarn was weak [22]. - On Friday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated widely. The May contract reached a new high of 70.31 cents/pound during the day, then retreated, and finally closed at 69.47 cents/pound [22]. 3.6 Eggs 3.6.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,369 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.56% decrease, and the closing price of egg 2605 was 3,502 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.63% increase [25]. - Spread: The 4 - 5 spread of eggs was - 133 yuan/500 kilograms, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 303 yuan/500 kilograms [25]. - Spot: The spot price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.30 yuan/jin, in Hebei was 3.18 yuan/jin, in Shanxi was 3.30 yuan/jin, and in Hubei was 3.69 yuan/jin [25]. 3.7 Pigs 3.7.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot: The spot price of pigs in Henan was 9,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; in Sichuan was 9,350 yuan/ton with no change; in Guangdong was 10,160 yuan/ton with no change [28]. - Futures: The price of live hogs 2605 was 9,965 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton; the price of live hogs 2607 was 11,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the price of live hogs 2609 was 12,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [28]. - Spread: The basis of live hogs 2605 was - 535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the basis of live hogs 2607 was - 1750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the basis of live hogs 2609 was - 3090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [28]. 3.8 Peanuts 3.8.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,000 yuan/ton with no change; the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 7,500 yuan/ton with no change [31]. - Futures: The closing price of PK604 was 8,110 yuan/ton with a - 0.61% decrease, and the closing price of PK605 was 8,122 yuan/ton with a - 1.72% decrease [31]. - Spread: The basis of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 878 yuan/ton; the basis of Henan Baisha common peanuts was - 622 yuan/ton; the 04 - 05 inter - period spread was - 12 yuan/ton [31]. 3.8.2 Spot Market Focus - In Henan, the price of Nanyang Baisha common peanuts was around 3.8 - 4.0 yuan/jin, and that of Kaifeng large peanuts was around 3.7 - 4.1 yuan/jin, with low supply and general trading [32]. - In Jilin, the price of 308 common peanuts was around 4.4 - 4.55 yuan/jin, with a stalemate in trading and generally weak prices [32]. - In Liaoning, the price of 308 common peanuts was around 4.4 - 4.55 yuan/jin, with farmers' willingness to sell increasing and weak demand for finished products [32]. - In Shandong, the supply from the grass - roots level was low, the trading of finished products was general, and the sales of oil - use peanuts were okay [32].