1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global sugar market is still in a bearish cycle, but many institutions have lowered their surplus expectations, which provides some fundamental support for sugar price increases. However, the overall oversupply situation in the global sugar market remains unchanged, and sugar prices may face supply - side pressure [5][6] - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have raised oil prices, amplifying the trading logic of sugar's energy attributes. If the ethanol profit in Brazil remains high after the new sugar - making cycle begins, the sugar - making ratio may be inclined to ethanol, squeezing the production space of raw sugar [7] - In the domestic market, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is coming to an end, and the production increase expectation is gradually being realized. The supply - demand structure is neutral to bearish, but due to geopolitical conflicts, capital rotation, and potential policy support, there is still marginal support for Zhengzhou sugar prices. It is recommended to take a medium - to - short - term perspective and refer to technical indicators for batch profit - taking [10][18][20] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Sugar Market: Bearish Cycle with Lowered Surplus Expectations - In the early stage of forecasting the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the market was optimistic. But later, due to factors such as poor production performance in India and Thailand, the return of El Niño, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, institutions began to lower their surplus expectations. Although the supply - demand situation has shown some changes, the overall oversupply pattern in the global sugar market has not changed [5][6] 3.2 Geopolitical Conflicts: Rising Oil Prices and Sugar's Energy Attributes - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to a rapid increase in international oil prices. Sugar's energy - related trading logic has been amplified. Brazil is about to start a new sugar - making cycle in April. If ethanol profits remain high, the sugar - making ratio may shift towards ethanol, affecting sugar supply [7] 3.3 Domestic Sugar Market: End of the Season, Mixed Signals and Stronger Trend - Domestic sugar production is progressing steadily. The production increase expectation for the 2025/26 season is being realized. The cumulative sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong have declined year - on - year, and industrial inventories are seasonally increasing, showing a neutral - bearish supply - demand structure. However, due to potential policy support, overseas instability, and capital rotation, Zhengzhou sugar prices have shown a strong upward trend [10][11][18] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Multiple factors such as changes in production expectations in India and Thailand and geopolitical conflicts have affected the global and domestic sugar markets. Although the global sugar market is still in a bearish cycle and the short - term supply - demand structure is relatively loose, if oil prices remain strong, the trading logic of sugar's bio - energy attributes may be further amplified. In the domestic market, there is marginal support for Zhengzhou sugar prices, but further upward space may require more definite real - world news [20]