电万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/11/17-25/11/22) 相关研究 -申万宏源 2026 《生市内龄论 年Ａ股投资策略》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究反方持 2025 年 11 月 22 日 调整是也只是"怀疑牛市级别" 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一、调整是"怀疑牛市级别"：AI 产业链"产业趋势大波段没结束 + 中小波段有波折 + 大波段性价比阶段性不足"，这神似 2014 年初的创业板、2018 年初的食品饮料、2021 年初的新能源。这种情况下，出现季度级别的"高位震荡"和"调整阶段"符合历史规律。 调整也只是"怀疑牛市级别"："牛市两段论"是 A 股牛市周期的典型特征。调整后耐心 O 等待基本面周期性改 ...

策 略 研 究 2025 年 11 月 22 日 调整是也只是"怀疑牛市级别" ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/11/17-25/11/22) 相关研究 《牛市两段论——申万宏源 2026 年 A 股投资策略》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 一 周 回 顾 展 望 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一、调整是"怀疑牛市级别"：AI 产业链"产业趋势大波段没结束 + 中小波段有波折 + 大波段性价比阶段性不足"，这神似 2014 年初的创业板、2018 年初的食品饮料、2021 年初的新能源。这种情况下，出现季度级别的"高位震荡"和"调整阶段"符合历史规律。 ⚫ 调整 ...

从市场风格来看，傅静涛表示，2026年春季前，科技成长股可能还有小波段反弹；从春季到年中的过渡 阶段，高股息防御股可能占优；年中以后，预计"周期搭台，成长唱戏"，"政策底"催化顺周期板块引领 指数突破，最终科技产业趋势和制造业全球影响力提升才是市场主线。 他建议2026年关注三大结构线索：一是周期Alpha、基础化工、工业金属等复苏交易板块；二是AI产业 链、人形机器人、储能、光伏，医药、军工等科技产业趋势板块；三是化工、工程机械等制造业影响力 提升的板块。 中证报中证网讯（记者 林倩）11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会，申万宏源A股策 略首席分析师傅静涛在演讲中表示，2026年春季，A股市场可能达到阶段性高点，2026年年中，"政策 底、市场底、经济底"依次出现，可能触发行情全面启动。 傅静涛预计，2026年中游制造供给可能出清，产能形成增速低于需求增速中枢的细分行业明显增加，自 下而上选股胜率提升。"政策底、市场底、经济底"依次出现，框架有效性回归，2026年年中是"政策 底"的验证时刻，A股行情可能全面启动。这轮行情主要依靠基本面周期性改善、新兴产业趋势强化、 居民资产配置向权益迁 ...

截至周四（11月13日）收盘，A股主要指数全线走强： 沪指收报4029.50点，涨0.73%，刷新十年来新高； 深成指收报13476.52点，涨1.78%； 创业板指报3201.75点，涨2.55%。 板块表现方面，储能、有色及露营经济概念领涨，证券板块尾盘发力显著推动沪指冲高；银行及油气板块表现偏弱。全市场上涨个股超过3900只， 普涨特征明显。 然而，本轮新高并非仅由国内资金推动，其背后存在显著的跨市场联动效应，特别是A50期指、港股恒生指数与全球宏观预期的互动。 一、A50期指与港股的同步拉动效应 周四盘中，**新加坡挂牌的富时中国A50指数期货（A50期指）**持续震荡上行，下午更是一度加速。宁德时代作为A50的权重成分股，单日大涨 7.51%，直接带动创业板与深成指走强。尾盘，内地证券板块快速拉升，A股指数再度突破4030点。 值得注意的是，港股恒生指数在此前几乎全天下跌的情况下，于A股尾盘阶段同步转涨，这表明境外资金通过衍生品市场与港股、A股形成了短线联 动。这类现象往往伴随着海外宏观预期的变化，尤其是货币政策方面的信号。 历史经验显示，A50期指的短线拉升往往至少提前反映境外资金情绪变化，这与港 ...

Market Performance - Major stock indices in the two markets showed weakness, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark again, and the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices dropping over 1% [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.24% to 3993.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.07%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.58%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index declined by 1.65% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 12,704 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as semiconductors, chemicals, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, brokerages, and steel experienced declines, while insurance, banking, oil, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1] - Concepts related to brain engineering and innovative pharmaceuticals were active in the market [1] Investment Outlook - Long-term trends for technology growth stocks show insufficient cost-effectiveness, with increasing short-term fundamental concerns [2] - There is a lack of established structures to lead the market breakout, suggesting that the A-share market may continue to experience a volatile phase [2] - The spring of 2026 is projected to be a potential peak, but it is unlikely to represent the peak for the entire year or the current bull market [2] - Three areas of mid-term returns are anticipated: cyclical improvement in fundamentals, asset allocation shifts towards equities leading to valuation reassessment, and increased global influence of China enhancing economic conditions and valuation [2] - The effective return of the framework of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected by mid-2026, coinciding with a potential start of a new bull market phase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a consolidation phase with strong performance in the consumer and securities sectors, while technology stocks are showing signs of recovery after a period of adjustment. There is speculation about a potential multi-sector rally in the near future, possibly indicating a final washout phase before a new uptrend [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Monday, the consumer and securities sectors led the market, with significant inflows into several brokerage stocks, contributing to a positive index performance. Technology stocks, however, did not participate in the rally but showed signs of stabilization in the afternoon [2]. - The consumer sector was driven by a slight rebound in CPI data, interpreted as manageable inflation and signs of improved consumption. Despite limited growth in food and beverage segments, the liquor sector emerged as a leader in the rebound, supported by institutional buying ahead of the year-end consumption peak [4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector has faced significant pressure over the past two weeks, but some semiconductor and computer stocks began to stabilize on Monday afternoon. This adjustment is seen as a way to clear out short-term speculative positions, potentially paving the way for future capital inflows [5]. - The securities sector is at a critical breakout point after a period of low consolidation, while the real estate sector is supported by stable policy expectations, with increasing capital accumulation at lower levels. A coordinated effort from these two sectors could significantly boost the index [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Signals - The trading volume exceeded 1 trillion, indicating that institutional investors are reallocating rather than withdrawing from the market. The valuation gap between sectors is notable, with consumer PE at 65% and technology at 35%, suggesting differing potential for explosive growth [12]. - Key sectors to watch for potential upward movement include technology (specifically semiconductor equipment and AI chips), consumer (focusing on mid-tier liquor and smart home appliances), and heavyweight stocks (brokerage ETFs and leading state-owned real estate companies) [12].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 macroeconomic outlook presented by Li Daokui emphasizes a recovery in nominal GDP and stabilization in key city real estate markets, providing certainty for the real estate and capital markets still in a policy observation phase [1]. Group 1: Nominal GDP and Economic Projections - Li Daokui estimates that the nominal GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2024 will be only 4.02%, with a gap of over 2.5 percentage points from the potential level of 7%. A recovery in prices and a positive Producer Price Index (PPI) could push nominal GDP back above 5% in 2025 [3]. - The nominal GDP target of 5% has been quantified for the first time, becoming a benchmark for investment strategies among various brokerage firms [3]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - A significant prediction is that major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu will largely lift purchase restrictions next year, indicating that the market bottom may appear before the policy bottom [4]. - Following this announcement, the A-share real estate index surged by 2.8%, and offshore real estate stocks rebounded by 3.1%, reflecting market confidence in this turning point [4]. Group 3: Stock Market and Corporate Profitability - Li Daokui notes that a 1 percentage point increase in nominal GDP could enhance overall profitability of listed companies by approximately 80 billion yuan, leading to a 5%-6% expansion in the price-to-earnings ratio across the market, thus providing a "profit floor" model for long-term investors [5]. - This upward adjustment in profit expectations is expected to reduce the likelihood of passive sell-offs by institutional investors [5]. Group 4: Domestic Demand and Global Economic Role - In response to potential tariff impacts from the U.S., Li Daokui proposes a three-pronged approach involving local debt repayment, household registration reforms, and housing plans, which could unleash around 2 trillion yuan in consumer demand, offsetting a 1.2 percentage point decline in exports [6]. - He emphasizes that understanding China's economic adjustments is crucial for global investors, integrating China's economic policy spillover effects into international macroeconomic models [6]. Group 5: Policy Coordination and Market Stability - Li Daokui's insights aim to align expectations across regulatory bodies, financial institutions, and developers, creating a cohesive policy framework [7]. - This framework supports timely monetary easing measures, facilitates the lifting of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, stabilizes market valuations, and provides a methodology for international investors to reassess Chinese assets [7]. Conclusion - The presentation by Li Daokui at the conference serves as a pivotal moment for managing economic expectations, transitioning from reactive explanations to proactive guidance, which could mark a turning point for global capital reallocation towards Chinese assets [8].

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Zhang Yansheng at the CIHAF highlighted the integration of "real estate fundamentals" into the macroeconomic framework, marking a shift in industry policy for 2022 [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The concept of "stabilizing real estate" is now part of the macroeconomic strategy, positioning real estate alongside small and medium enterprises, manufacturing, and risk mitigation as one of the "four pillars" [3]. - The framework proposed by Zhang Yansheng has been adopted by multiple brokerages as the core investment logic for the real estate sector in 2022, leading to a 3.4% increase in the Shenwan Real Estate Index the following day [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Measures - Zhang suggested "appropriately advancing infrastructure investment" along with new tax reductions to synchronize the supply and demand sides [4]. - The Ministry of Finance announced an additional 1.2 trillion yuan in special bond limits in the 2022 budget, prioritizing investments in affordable rental housing and urban renewal, which is expected to boost industry investment by 8-10 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is characterized as "flexible, moderate, and reasonably ample," with specific measures for distressed enterprises and ensuring loan availability for first-time homebuyers and green buildings [5][6]. - This framework supported the People's Bank of China's decision to lower the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 35 basis points and establish a 200 billion yuan special loan for ensuring housing delivery [6]. Group 4: Long-term Mechanisms - Emphasis was placed on transitioning from "market rescue" to a "high-quality development path," with a focus on sustainable and healthy development mechanisms [7]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, along with other ministries, introduced an upgraded version of the "three lines and four categories" policy, incorporating quality improvement standards for green buildings and smart homes [7]. Group 5: Expectation Management - Zhang proposed that policies should be "forward-looking, quantifiable, and verifiable," with specific timelines for fiscal tools and the expansion of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) [8]. - The successful implementation of these measures in 2022 transformed industry expectations from uncertainty to a more predictable framework, significantly reducing policy uncertainty premiums [9].

Core Viewpoint - After the adjustment in the A-share market, October is likely to be a favorable month for capital market expectations to stabilize and rise, with key policy layout opportunities emerging [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The adjustment in the A-share market is expected to lead to a "red October," which is a period of potential recovery and growth [1] - The cyclical catalysts are anticipated to be limited in Q4 2025, while the focus on demand will shift towards the new round of policy and economic bottoming in 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The technology sector continues to show upward trends, with the overseas AI industry still on the rise and not yet reaching its limits, while the domestic AI industry is also making continuous progress [1] - The current period is characterized by increasing highlights in the technology sector, with structural highlights emerging since the adjustment in September [1] Group 3: Future Projections - October is expected to see a resonance between industry highlights and long-term policy layouts, potentially reigniting structural enthusiasm [1] - The spring of 2026 may represent a phase peak, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the peak of the current bull market, as conditions for a comprehensive bull market will continue to strengthen over time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "9·24" policy has significantly reshaped the A-share market, enhancing investor confidence and leading to a substantial increase in market capitalization and stock prices over the past year [2][5][15]. Market Performance - A-share total market capitalization grew from approximately 70 trillion yuan to over 100 trillion yuan, an increase of over 30% [2][6]. - More than 1,400 stocks have doubled in price, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index both rising over 100% [2][6]. Policy Impact - The "9·24" policy, introduced on September 24, 2024, included measures to boost medium- and long-term capital inflows, reform mergers and acquisitions, and support technological innovation [2][4]. - Following the policy announcement, the Shanghai Composite Index surged by 4.15% in a single day, while the ChiNext Index soared by 5.54% [4]. Structural Changes - The A-share market has seen a profound transformation, with a focus on sustainable growth and a "slow bull" market trajectory following initial rapid responses to policy changes [5][6]. - The volatility of the market has decreased, with the annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index at 15.9%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous five-year period [6]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Over 230 major asset restructurings have been disclosed since the implementation of the "9·24" policy, marking a recent high [9]. - Innovative merger tools such as targeted convertible bonds and acquisition loans have revitalized market activity, facilitating a clearer direction for industrial integration [9][10]. Investor Sentiment - The investor base has evolved, with a significant increase in new accounts, totaling 30.57 million, an 83.86% increase compared to the previous period [13]. - Long-term capital, including insurance and social security funds, has also increased its presence in the market, with insurance funds' stock investments reaching 3.06 trillion yuan, a net increase of about 1 trillion yuan [14]. Future Outlook - The ongoing reforms are expected to further enhance market quality and foster a culture of long-term investment, with a focus on improving the quality of listed companies and refining foundational systems [14][15].