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白酒需求回暖价格回稳 机构看好今年业绩或呈先抑后扬走势(附概念股)
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 01:39
Group 1: Industry Overview - The overall revenue of the liquor industry experienced slight growth during the Spring Festival season, but the growth rate has declined compared to 2024, indicating that the industry is still in an adjustment period [1] - High-end liquor showed stable growth, while the revenue growth of mid-range liquor approached zero, leading to increased differentiation among real estate liquor and other types [1] - As of May, the liquor industry is transitioning from a traditional off-season to a small peak season during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival, with expectations for mainstream product prices to stabilize due to recovering demand [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Dongwu Securities maintains a positive mid-term outlook for the liquor sector, emphasizing the importance of positioning over timing, and suggests monitoring indicators such as the stability of Moutai's prices and changes in channel inventory [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the liquor sector is facing a demand gap, but the risk of further decline is limited as the demand is at a historical low [2] - CICC expects that the liquor demand will gradually recover, supported by a relatively loose policy environment and low base effects from the previous year [2] Group 3: Company Specifics - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has been developed into a leading private liquor enterprise in China, with its main brands contributing 65.2%, 15.8%, and 17.4% to the revenue in 2023, respectively [3]