白酒股半年报冷思考：珍酒李渡的"失速"与蓄势。 文 | 卖酒狼团队 编 | 南风 8月22日，港股"白酒第一股"珍酒李渡交出了一份看似"失速"的半年报，实现营业收入24.97亿元，经调整净利润6.13亿元。 表面看，这是白酒行业面临挑战的一个缩影，但若细读财报、观察战略动向，却不难发现，这家企业在行业深度调整期中仍展现出较强的韧性与战略定 力，其"基本盘筑牢+创新突围"的双轨策略颇具样本价值。 2025年以来，白酒行业确实深陷价格倒挂与销售疲软的双重困境之中，整体市场氛围持续承压。规模以上白酒企业产量同比下滑，价格倒挂已经不是某个 白酒品牌所面临的问题，而是整个白酒市场中最为普遍的情况。 这背后是消费场景的结构性变迁：政务和商务宴请占比显著下滑，婚宴、家庭消费等虽成为主力，但客单价普遍下降，难以支撑次高端及以上产品的销 量。 同时，头部品牌如茅台、五粮液渠道下沉，加剧了市场竞争，加之年轻消费群体偏好低度、利口化酒饮，传统白酒需求受到进一步冲击。 尽管多家酒企通过推出低度产品、渠道改革等方式积极应对，但短期阵痛恐难消除，行业整体仍处于深度调整期。 在此背景下，珍酒李渡并没有成为例外，同样受到了市场大环境的"冲击 ...

Group 1 - Renowned investor Lin Yuan led a team to Guizhou Zhenjiu for an inspection and participated in the Wan Shang Alliance Wealth Creation Forum and the "Zhen Enterprise Meeting" [1][2] - The Wan Shang Alliance is a core strategy for Zhenjiu to address industry changes, focusing on a super product model to reach middle-class consumers and resolve channel pricing issues [2][4] - The "Zhen Enterprise Meeting" aims to create a high-end entrepreneur community that combines commercial value and cultural heritage, enhancing cooperation among members [6][8] Group 2 - Lin Yuan shared investment insights and trends in the liquor industry, emphasizing a demand-driven investment philosophy and the cultural attributes of liquor [12] - He believes that the liquor industry, being cyclical, has shown a long-term upward trend and views the current market conditions as an opportune time for investment in Zhenjiu [12]

Group 1 - Lin Yuan, a prominent investor and chairman of Shenzhen Linyuan Investment Management Co., visited Guizhou Zhenjiu for an inspection and exchange [1] - During the visit, Lin Yuan explored various facilities including the brewing workshop and the ecological brewing area, gaining insights into the brewing and fermentation processes, brand history, and market positioning [3] - Zhenjiu has invested 12 billion yuan in production capacity expansion, currently boasting a brewing capacity of 45,000 tons, a fermentation capacity of 90,000 tons, and a packaging capacity of 60,000 tons, with a storage of 150,000 tons of quality base liquor, making it one of the top three sauce-flavored brands in Guizhou and the largest private liquor enterprise in the region [6] Group 2 - Lin Yuan expressed that Zhenjiu has a beautiful ecological environment, large production scale, complex and refined brewing techniques, and a unique brand story, leaving a deep impression on him [7] - He believes that Zhenjiu adheres to a long-term perspective and is genuinely committed to building a business, indicating a promising future for the company [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous revenue pressure, but profitability remains stable, with a gross margin increase of 0.3 percentage points to 59.04% due to a higher proportion of revenue from high-margin brands [6] - The company is implementing strict sales controls to manage inventory levels, which has led to a significant decline in revenue across its brands, particularly a 45% decrease in revenue from its main brand, Zhenjiu [7] - The introduction of a new flagship product, "Dazhen," is expected to create a new growth curve for the company, targeting a balance between quality and price [7] - The company is innovating its distribution channels through the "Wanshang Alliance" model, which aims to enhance direct access to consumers while controlling supply quotas to prevent price erosion [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, total revenue was 2.497 billion yuan, a decrease of 40% year-on-year, while net profit was 575 million yuan, down 24% year-on-year [5] - The company's sales and management expense ratios increased to 22.24% and 9.76%, respectively, due to rising unit costs from reduced revenue [6] Brand Performance - Revenue from Zhenjiu decreased by 45% to 1.492 billion yuan, while Li Du's revenue fell by 9% to 611 million yuan, reflecting a focus on mid-range products and key consumption scenarios [7] - Other brands, such as Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao, also saw significant revenue declines of 39% and 64%, respectively, due to market conditions [7] Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.35, 0.41, and 0.48 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26, 22, and 19 times [10] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 5.29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.1% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to industry-wide challenges, although the performance of the Li Du brand remained relatively stable [1] Revenue Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39.58% [1] - Revenue breakdown by product for H1 2025: - Zhen Jiu: 1.492 billion yuan (-44.8%) - Li Du: 611 million yuan (-9.4%) - Xiang Jiao: 277 million yuan (-38.7%) - Kai Kou Xiao: 81 million yuan (-63.9%) - Others: 36 million yuan (-54.7%) [1] - The average price per ton for products showed a decline, with Zhen Jiu at 32.3 thousand yuan/ton (-17.0%) and Li Du at 34.9 thousand yuan/ton (-29.1%) [1] - Sales volume for products varied, with Li Du showing a positive growth of 27.8% [1] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 59.04%, a slight increase of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Gross margin by product: - Zhen Jiu: 58.3% (-0.9pct) - Li Du: 66.5% (-0.3pct) - Xiang Jiao: 58.7% (-0.1pct) - Kai Kou Xiao: 41.7% (-4.0pct) - Others: 4.4% (-6.8pct) [2] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 23.02%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a significant reduction in equity incentive expenses [2] Channel Performance - Revenue from distributors and direct sales channels for H1 2025 was 2.197 billion yuan and 300 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 41.8% and 16.6% [1] - The number of distribution partners, experience stores, and retailers at the end of H1 2025 was 3,259, 1,025, and 2,835, with changes of +55, -72, and -499 respectively [1] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of -20.0%, 14.9%, and 9.4% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of -6.2%, 18.6%, and 10.0% for the same period [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 World Wine Industry Development Summit was held in Guiyang, focusing on the opportunities and challenges faced by the industry, aiming to provide new ideas and solutions for the high-quality development of China's liquor industry [1] Company Overview - Zhenjiu was established in 1975 and is located in the core production area of Chinese sauce-flavored liquor in Zunyi. It gained recognition in 1985 from the highest-level liquor industry appraisal committee and won a national quality award in 1988, becoming one of the three major sauce-flavored brands in Guizhou [3] - Zhenjiu has invested over 12 billion yuan in production expansion in recent years. By the 2024 production season, it will have a production capacity of 44,000 tons, with a current storage of high-quality base liquor reaching 120,000 tons, making it one of the top three liquor companies in Guizhou and the largest private liquor enterprise in the region [3] Market Strategy - In response to changes in the current liquor market, Zhenjiu is actively expanding its channels, with 6,414 participants in the Wan Shang Alliance and 2,418 successful customer signings [5] - Zhenjiu emphasizes the importance of integrating Chinese liquor with Chinese culinary culture for international expansion. The company is working on enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese cuisine and the supply chain through the 1912 Zhenjiu Culinary Research Institute in Changsha, aiming to broaden the market boundaries of the liquor industry [5] - The company believes there is still room for improvement in the craftsmanship, cultural expression, and drinking experience of Chinese liquor. Modifying taste and strengthening brand storytelling will help gain wider recognition among international consumers [5]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a stock price increase of over 7%, currently trading at 10.22 HKD with a transaction volume of 214 million HKD, despite a significant decline in mid-year performance metrics [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, the company reported revenue of 2.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 570 million RMB, down 23.5% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - Dongwu Securities indicates that the company's product matrix is clear, and the long-term brand and quality upgrade strategy is expected to gradually show organizational efficiency and channel potential [1] - It is anticipated that the decline in the second half of the year will narrow significantly, supported by the recovery in demand and the expansion of the Dazhen market [1] Industry Context - According to ShenGang Securities, the white liquor sector is currently facing limited fundamental catalysts, and the performance pressure from mid-year results has been released [1] - The second half of the year may benefit from a low base in the industry and the diminishing marginal effects of restaurant consumption policies, making the performance in Q3 and Q4 worth monitoring [1] - The overall market recovery suggests that undervalued cyclical sectors may gradually attract market attention, with recommendations to identify investment targets in the white liquor sector based on channel clearance, regional optimization, scenario engagement, and increased dividend rates [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for H1 2025, with revenue at 2.5 billion yuan, net profit at 570 million yuan, and adjusted net profit at 610 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 39.6%, 23.5%, and 39.8% respectively [1][5] - The company is focusing on maintaining channel health by controlling sales pace, while leveraging consumption scenarios such as weddings and graduations to counteract market downturns [1][5] - The introduction of new products under the "Da Zhen" brand and the alliance model is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in H2 2025, with a focus on price management capabilities [1][5] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered to 1.41 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan, and 1.88 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 21.8 for 2025 [1][5] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 59.0%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in high-end product revenue [1][5] - The revenue breakdown by brand for H1 2025 shows that "Zhen Jiu" generated 1.49 billion yuan, "Li Du" 610 million yuan, "Xiang Jiao" 280 million yuan, and "Kai Kou Xiao" 80 million yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of -44.8%, -9.4%, -38.7%, and -63.9% [1][5] - The company’s total market capitalization is 3.34 billion yuan, with a current share price of 9.86 HKD [2] Future Outlook - The "Da Zhen" project has signed over 2,100 clients, with expectations for significant revenue contributions in H2 2025 [1][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's ability to manage pricing and channels effectively to enhance brand image and market position [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.497 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 575 million RMB, down 23.5% year-on-year [2] - The company launched several new products in H1 2025, including Zhen 50 and Li Du Gao Liang 1965, aiming to enhance market presence and sales through a new alliance model [3] - The revenue breakdown by product shows significant declines, with Zhen Jiu and other brands experiencing revenue drops of 45%, 9%, 39%, and 64% respectively [3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company expects revenues to decline by 20.4% in 2025, followed by growth of 11.7% in 2026 and 16.8% in 2027 [5] - The adjusted net profit is projected to decrease by 1.9% in 2025, but increase by 19.6% in 2026 and 28.4% in 2027 [5] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 increased by 0.3 percentage points to 59.0%, while sales and distribution expenses decreased by 38.5% year-on-year [4] Product and Pricing Strategy - Revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products in H1 2025 was 580 million, 980 million, and 940 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year declines of 47%, 42%, and 31% [4] - The gross margin for high-end products decreased due to internal structural adjustments, while mid-range and low-end products saw margin improvements due to cost optimizations [4] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has established a significant network of over 2,100 alliance partners for its new product line, which is expected to contribute positively starting in H2 2025 [3] - The report indicates that the company is leveraging its experience in high-end liquor operations to enhance the performance of its new product offerings [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of the company, Zhenjiu Lidu, reflects the broader challenges faced by the liquor industry, with significant declines in revenue and profit due to macroeconomic uncertainties and reduced demand for business and gifting occasions [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan, down 39.3% [2]. - The revenue breakdown shows that Zhenjiu generated 1.492 billion yuan (59.7% of total revenue), Lidu contributed 611 million yuan (24.5%), Xiangjiao brought in 277 million yuan (11.1%), and Kaikouxiao accounted for 81 million yuan (3.2%) [2]. - Despite the overall revenue decline, Lidu's sales volume increased by approximately 27.79%, with a revenue share rising from 16.3% to 24.5% [3]. - The overall gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59%, marking three consecutive years of growth [3]. Market Strategy and Product Development - The company is implementing a dual-channel growth strategy, expanding its distribution network to include key opinion leaders with strong social networks [4]. - New product launches, such as "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 600 yuan per bottle, aim to target the high-end market, while the "Niu Shi" beer is positioned as a super premium product at 88 yuan per bottle [5]. - The "Wanshang Alliance" initiative aims to recruit over 10,000 partners to create a community of shared interests and trust between manufacturers and distributors [5]. Market Response - Following the announcement of new strategies and products, the stock price of Zhenjiu Lidu surged by 47.38% since August, indicating positive market sentiment [6]. - Analysts suggest that the innovative marketing and product strategies could potentially lead to significant revenue contributions, although uncertainties remain regarding the effectiveness of these initiatives in the current market environment [6].