报表出清，大珍寻机 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 公司收入/净利润/经调整净利润分别为 25.0 亿元 /5.7 亿元/6.1 亿元，同比-39.6%/-23.5%/-39.8%。25H1 公司报表侧开始出清， 珍酒严控销售节奏维护渠道健康，李渡依托婚宴、升学宴等消费场景逆周期对 冲，毛利率保持稳定，费用短期刚性但后续有望削减，利润率侧预计继续保持。 展望 25H2，大珍新品推出与联盟体形式有望贡献重要增量，后续重点关注公司 价格管理能力，若整体得当，大珍有望成为填补珍 15、珍 30 价格带的重要利 器。考虑到公司面临外部压力，我们下调 25-27 年经调整净利润至 14.1 亿元、 15.4 亿元、18.8 亿元，对应 25 年 21.8 倍 PE，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：9.86 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 3389 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 3389 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 33.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 33.4 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 4.1 | | R ...

业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 22 日公司披露 25 年中期业绩，期内实现营收 24.97 亿元，同比-39.6%；归母净利 5.75 亿元，同比-23.5%；经调整净 利 6.13 亿元，同比-39.8%。 经营分析 分价位来看：25H1 高端/次高端/中端及以下分别实现营收 5.8/9.8/9.4 亿元，同比 -47%/-42%/-31% ，毛利率分别 -2.2/+2.3/+2.7pct；高端价位毛利率回落主要源于内部结构调 整，次高端及以下价位毛利率提升主要源于自产基酒逐步替代+包 材等成本优化+低毛利产品销量下滑致使内部结构优化。 从报表质量看：1）25H1 整体毛利率同比+0.3pct 至 59.0%，销售 及经销开支占比同比+0.4pct 至 22.2%（绝对值同比-38.5%），行 政开支占比同比+3.1pct 至 9.8%（绝对值同比-11.3%）；经调整净 利率-0.1pct 至 24.6%；2）25H1 末应计返利/预收客户款项余额分 别 4.9/14.3 亿元，较 24 年末-1.9/-3.3 亿元。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们预计公司 25-27 年收入分别-20.4%/+11.7% ...

8月22日晚间，港股"白酒第一股"珍酒李渡发布半年报。 报告期内，公司实现收入实现营业收入24.97亿元，同比减少39.6%；经调整净利润6.13亿元，同比减少 39.3%。 这份略显"失速"的业绩，也是当前白酒行业普遍面临挑战的一个写照。公司不久前发布了2025年上半年 业绩盈利预警公告，表示业绩主要受上半年宏观经济不确定性持续导致的商务、宴请和送礼场景减少影 响。同时，公司主动调整发展节奏，放缓增长速度，积极为市场纾困，确保长期稳定发展。 尽管市场承压，记者注意到，从打造个人IP，到跨界推出啤酒产品，再到发起与经销商深度绑定的"万 商联盟"，公司董事长吴向东却前所未有地活跃在公众视野。 从早年的"川酒王"到金六福，再到打造酒类流通第一股华致酒行，直至收购珍酒李渡，已在酒行业浸淫 三十年的吴向东，始终保持着"连续创业者"的节奏。他亲历多轮行业周期，而这一次，他的又能否带领 公司穿越低谷？ 珍酒收入承压，李渡放量稳盘，整体毛利率却逆势微增 而从吨价来看，虽然整体吨价27.37万元/吨，同比下滑6.6%，但在今年上半年公司调整发货节奏，主动 控量稳价，相较于2023年的27万元/吨有一定增长。 业内人士指出，该 ...

8月22日晚间，港股"白酒第一股"珍酒李渡发布半年报。 尽管市场承压，记者注意到，从打造个人IP，到跨界推出啤酒产品，再到发起与经销商深度绑定的"万 商联盟"，公司董事长吴向东却前所未有地活跃在公众视野。 报告期内，公司实现收入实现营业收入24.97亿元，同比减少39.6%；经调整净利润6.13亿元，同比减少 39.3%。 这份略显"失速"的业绩，也是当前白酒行业普遍面临挑战的一个写照。公司不久前发布了2025年上半年 业绩盈利预警公告，表示业绩主要受上半年宏观经济不确定性持续导致的商务、宴请和送礼场景减少影 响。同时，公司主动调整发展节奏，放缓增长速度，积极为市场纾困，确保长期稳定发展。 珍酒收入承压，李渡放量稳盘，整体毛利率却逆势微增 分产品来看，珍酒收入14.92亿元，吨价32.34万元，收入占比59.7%；李渡收入6.11亿元，吨价34.89万 元，收入占比24.5%；湘窖收入2.77亿元，吨价58.59万元，收入占比11.1%；开口笑收入0.81亿元，吨价 13.72万元，收入占比3.2%。 对于核心产品珍酒的收入下滑，公司表示，主要是由于白酒消费需求不振及为维持健康的渠道库存水平 而严格控制销售节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall environment for the liquor industry is bleak, with significant inventory pressure and price inversion issues that are unlikely to be resolved in the short term [2][9]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company "Zhenjiu Lid" issued a shocking profit warning, expecting revenue to decline by 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders to drop by 23% to 24% [3]. - The company's financial trajectory shows a stark decline from a revenue of 7.03 billion yuan in 2023, which grew by 20.06%, to a stagnation in 2024 with a slight increase of 0.52% to 7.067 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 43.12% to 1.324 billion yuan [4]. - The flagship brand "Zhenjiu" saw a revenue decrease of 2.3% to 4.48 billion yuan in 2024, with its revenue share dropping to 63.4% [5]. Inventory and Market Challenges - The inventory balance surged from 1.737 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.503 billion yuan in 2024, indicating severe sales difficulties, with inventory turnover days extending from 517 days to 855 days [5][6]. - The liquor industry is facing widespread challenges, including reduced consumption, high inventory levels, and price inversions due to economic downturns and policy adjustments [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a high-end strategy by launching a new flagship product "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 888 yuan per bottle, aiming to fill a market gap and achieve significant sales targets [7]. - The company is diversifying into the beer market with the launch of a premium beer called "Niu Shi," priced at 88 yuan per bottle, targeting the high-end craft beer segment [8]. - The company has engaged celebrity endorsements, including appointing Yao Anna as a brand ambassador, to enhance brand value and appeal to younger demographics [9].

Macro Strategy - The report analyzes three historical cases of capacity adjustment over a century, highlighting the negative feedback loop of capacity imbalance and the importance of government intervention to restore balance [1][12] - It emphasizes that supply-demand rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment, rather than relying solely on supply or demand policies [1][12] Fixed Income - The new bond value-added tax regulation enhances the relative attractiveness of credit bonds, as their interest income is not subject to the tax, while government bonds lose their tax exemption [2][3][13] - The adjustment in tax rates is expected to narrow the yield spread between credit bonds and other interest rate bonds by approximately 10 basis points, with potential increases in relative value for credit bonds by 5-15 basis points for proprietary trading departments [2][3][14] Industry Analysis - The asset operation and maintenance (O&M) industry is gaining importance post-capital formation peak, with growth driven more by product development than by personnel or capital [4][15] - The report indicates that the O&M market is projected to grow significantly, with the current market size at approximately 2.44 trillion and expected to reach around 5.5 trillion in ten years [4][15] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Borui Data, Rongzhi Rixin, and Xianheng International, as they are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-quality O&M services [4][15] Electronic Industry - The ASIC business model requires service providers to have strong IP design and SoC design capabilities, with major players like Broadcom and Marvell holding significant market shares [5][16][17] - The custom chip market is projected to reach $55.4 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% from 2023 to 2028, driven by the demand for AI acceleration [5][16][17] - The report highlights the potential for margin pressure in the custom chip business due to increased competition from domestic firms entering the AI ASIC market [5][16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to economic uncertainties and recent policies affecting liquor consumption, particularly in business and social settings [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of approximately 7.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 43.1% to about 1.324 billion yuan [3]. - The company's inventory has been on the rise, with the balance increasing from 1.737 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.503 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 5.766 billion yuan over four years. The inventory turnover days increased from 517 days in 2020 to 855 days in 2024 [3]. Strategic Initiatives - To address the decline in liquor demand and promote business growth, the company has implemented several strategic measures, including: 1. Launching a new flagship product in June 2025 to tackle industry challenges and meet demand, expected to contribute significantly to sales in the second half of the year [2]. 2. Strengthening the competitive position of existing flagship products through detailed sales policies and enhancing market penetration in core areas [2]. 3. Capturing incremental consumer demand by exploring emerging consumption trends and scenarios, such as mid-range and premium products for events like birthdays and weddings [2]. New Product Development - The company plans to introduce a new super beer named "Bull Market" on August 8, aiming to promote a new lifestyle [3][6].

Group 1 - The visit by Ma Weihua and his team to Guizhou Zhenjiu highlights the company's strong brand reputation and product influence in the national market after half a century of development [2] - Ma Weihua praised Zhenjiu's commitment to high-quality liquor production amidst a complex market environment, emphasizing the importance of strategic focus [2] - Zhenjiu is undergoing a critical transformation phase in the liquor industry, aiming to enhance core competitiveness and innovate development models [4] Group 2 - The Zhenjiu estate project integrates red culture, liquor culture, and historical culture, with potential to become a model for immersive consumer experiences [4] - The establishment of the "Wanshang Alliance" aims to create a super organization and super products, providing a sustainable revenue mechanism for distributors [4] - Ma Weihua's background as a prominent figure in the financial sector, including his tenure as the second president of China Merchants Bank, adds credibility to his insights on Zhenjiu's future prospects [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively responding to industry adjustments by transforming its strategies, focusing on nurturing enterprise customer structures and launching new products in the mid-to-high price range to create incremental growth [8] - The company aims to maintain price stability for existing products while introducing high-quality new products priced between 500-600 RMB to attract consumers [8] - The company is implementing a dual-driven strategy for national expansion and price range diversification, with a focus on experiential marketing to drive steady revenue growth [8] - The financial forecasts for the company indicate a stable performance in 2025, with slight adjustments to the non-IFRS net profit predictions for 2025-2027 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 7,060 million RMB, with a projected growth of 20.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is 2,327 million RMB, showing a significant increase of 125.96% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2023A is 1,623 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.52% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is 0.69 RMB, with a projected P/E ratio of 9.03 [1] - The company expects to achieve a non-IFRS net profit of 1,431 million RMB in 2025E, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 14.69 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is actively responding to industry adjustments by transforming its strategies, focusing on nurturing enterprise customer structures and launching new products in the mid-to-high price range to create incremental growth [8] - The company aims to maintain price stability for existing products while introducing high-quality new products priced between 500-600 RMB to attract consumers [8] - The company is implementing a dual-driven strategy for national expansion and price range diversification, with a focus on experiential marketing to drive steady revenue growth [8] - The financial forecasts for the company indicate a stable performance in 2025, with slight adjustments to the non-IFRS net profit predictions for 2025-2027 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,060 million RMB, with a growth rate of 20.56%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 8,929 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 14.54% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 2,327 million RMB, with a significant increase of 125.96%. By 2027, it is projected to be 2,106 million RMB, with a growth rate of 22.98% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 0.69 RMB, expected to rise to 0.62 RMB by 2027 [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 15.88 in 2024 to 9.98 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [1]