报表出清，大珍寻机 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 公司收入/净利润/经调整净利润分别为 25.0 亿元 /5.7 亿元/6.1 亿元，同比-39.6%/-23.5%/-39.8%。25H1 公司报表侧开始出清， 珍酒严控销售节奏维护渠道健康，李渡依托婚宴、升学宴等消费场景逆周期对 冲，毛利率保持稳定，费用短期刚性但后续有望削减，利润率侧预计继续保持。 展望 25H2，大珍新品推出与联盟体形式有望贡献重要增量，后续重点关注公司 价格管理能力，若整体得当，大珍有望成为填补珍 15、珍 30 价格带的重要利 器。考虑到公司面临外部压力，我们下调 25-27 年经调整净利润至 14.1 亿元、 15.4 亿元、18.8 亿元，对应 25 年 21.8 倍 PE，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：9.86 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 3389 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 3389 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 33.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 33.4 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 4.1 | | R ...

业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 22 日公司披露 25 年中期业绩，期内实现营收 24.97 亿元，同比-39.6%；归母净利 5.75 亿元，同比-23.5%；经调整净 利 6.13 亿元，同比-39.8%。 经营分析 分价位来看：25H1 高端/次高端/中端及以下分别实现营收 5.8/9.8/9.4 亿元，同比 -47%/-42%/-31% ，毛利率分别 -2.2/+2.3/+2.7pct；高端价位毛利率回落主要源于内部结构调 整，次高端及以下价位毛利率提升主要源于自产基酒逐步替代+包 材等成本优化+低毛利产品销量下滑致使内部结构优化。 从报表质量看：1）25H1 整体毛利率同比+0.3pct 至 59.0%，销售 及经销开支占比同比+0.4pct 至 22.2%（绝对值同比-38.5%），行 政开支占比同比+3.1pct 至 9.8%（绝对值同比-11.3%）；经调整净 利率-0.1pct 至 24.6%；2）25H1 末应计返利/预收客户款项余额分 别 4.9/14.3 亿元，较 24 年末-1.9/-3.3 亿元。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们预计公司 25-27 年收入分别-20.4%/+11.7% ...

8月22日晚间，港股"白酒第一股"珍酒李渡发布半年报。 尽管市场承压，记者注意到，从打造个人IP，到跨界推出啤酒产品，再到发起与经销商深度绑定的"万 商联盟"，公司董事长吴向东却前所未有地活跃在公众视野。 报告期内，公司实现收入实现营业收入24.97亿元，同比减少39.6%；经调整净利润6.13亿元，同比减少 39.3%。 这份略显"失速"的业绩，也是当前白酒行业普遍面临挑战的一个写照。公司不久前发布了2025年上半年 业绩盈利预警公告，表示业绩主要受上半年宏观经济不确定性持续导致的商务、宴请和送礼场景减少影 响。同时，公司主动调整发展节奏，放缓增长速度，积极为市场纾困，确保长期稳定发展。 珍酒收入承压，李渡放量稳盘，整体毛利率却逆势微增 分产品来看，珍酒收入14.92亿元，吨价32.34万元，收入占比59.7%；李渡收入6.11亿元，吨价34.89万 元，收入占比24.5%；湘窖收入2.77亿元，吨价58.59万元，收入占比11.1%；开口笑收入0.81亿元，吨价 13.72万元，收入占比3.2%。 对于核心产品珍酒的收入下滑，公司表示，主要是由于白酒消费需求不振及为维持健康的渠道库存水平 而严格控制销售节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall environment for the liquor industry is bleak, with significant inventory pressure and price inversion issues that are unlikely to be resolved in the short term [2][9]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company "Zhenjiu Lid" issued a shocking profit warning, expecting revenue to decline by 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders to drop by 23% to 24% [3]. - The company's financial trajectory shows a stark decline from a revenue of 7.03 billion yuan in 2023, which grew by 20.06%, to a stagnation in 2024 with a slight increase of 0.52% to 7.067 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 43.12% to 1.324 billion yuan [4]. - The flagship brand "Zhenjiu" saw a revenue decrease of 2.3% to 4.48 billion yuan in 2024, with its revenue share dropping to 63.4% [5]. Inventory and Market Challenges - The inventory balance surged from 1.737 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.503 billion yuan in 2024, indicating severe sales difficulties, with inventory turnover days extending from 517 days to 855 days [5][6]. - The liquor industry is facing widespread challenges, including reduced consumption, high inventory levels, and price inversions due to economic downturns and policy adjustments [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a high-end strategy by launching a new flagship product "Da Zhen·Zhenjiu" priced at 888 yuan per bottle, aiming to fill a market gap and achieve significant sales targets [7]. - The company is diversifying into the beer market with the launch of a premium beer called "Niu Shi," priced at 88 yuan per bottle, targeting the high-end craft beer segment [8]. - The company has engaged celebrity endorsements, including appointing Yao Anna as a brand ambassador, to enhance brand value and appeal to younger demographics [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to economic uncertainties and recent policies affecting liquor consumption, particularly in business and social settings [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of approximately 7.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 43.1% to about 1.324 billion yuan [3]. - The company's inventory has been on the rise, with the balance increasing from 1.737 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.503 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 5.766 billion yuan over four years. The inventory turnover days increased from 517 days in 2020 to 855 days in 2024 [3]. Strategic Initiatives - To address the decline in liquor demand and promote business growth, the company has implemented several strategic measures, including: 1. Launching a new flagship product in June 2025 to tackle industry challenges and meet demand, expected to contribute significantly to sales in the second half of the year [2]. 2. Strengthening the competitive position of existing flagship products through detailed sales policies and enhancing market penetration in core areas [2]. 3. Capturing incremental consumer demand by exploring emerging consumption trends and scenarios, such as mid-range and premium products for events like birthdays and weddings [2]. New Product Development - The company plans to introduce a new super beer named "Bull Market" on August 8, aiming to promote a new lifestyle [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, focusing on inventory reduction and channel stability amidst challenging market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects total revenue for H1 2025 to be between 2.4-2.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3%-41.9% [1] - The anticipated net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 570-580 million yuan, down 23%-24% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be between 610-620 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 39%-40% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively reducing market supply of its products to stabilize channel profits, particularly for its flagship products, while focusing on enhancing sales of new products [1][2] - A new strategic flagship product, "Da Zhen," was launched at a price of 888 yuan to fill a market gap and target group purchases, which is expected to partially offset declines in main products [2] - The company is increasing investments in key regional markets such as Guizhou, Henan, and Shandong to strengthen its market position and competitiveness [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The company is recognized as a rare player in the sauce liquor market, ranking among the top three in Guizhou, with strong long-term growth potential [3] - The management team possesses extensive industry experience and marketing capabilities, which are expected to support future performance [3] - The product lineup is well-structured, with various price points and product types aimed at capturing market share during favorable industry conditions [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company is focusing on solidifying its market foundation and inventory reduction, with expectations for the new product "Da Zhen" to create new growth opportunities [4] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.34/0.35/0.39 yuan, reflecting a more cautious outlook while maintaining a target price of 10 HKD [4] - The company is maintaining a "strong buy" rating, indicating confidence in its strategic direction and market resilience [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in revenue and profits in the first half of 2025, with total revenue projected to be between 2.4 to 2.55 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38.3% to 41.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 570 to 580 million HKD, down 23% to 24% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory clearance and stabilizing its distribution channels, with a strategic shift towards launching new products to mitigate the impact of declining sales [8]. - The introduction of a flagship product, "Da Zhen," priced at 888 HKD, aims to capture market share and enhance profitability through targeted marketing strategies [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 5.032 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28.8% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 1.151 billion HKD, a decrease of 31.31% compared to the previous year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is adjusted to 0.34 HKD, down from previous estimates [8]. Market Strategy - The company is actively adjusting its market strategy by reducing supply and focusing on core products to stabilize its market position [8]. - There is an emphasis on expanding market presence in key regions such as Guizhou, Henan, and Shandong, while also exploring new consumer trends with product diversification [8]. - The management team is experienced and has a strong understanding of market dynamics, which is expected to support long-term growth despite short-term challenges [8].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The overall revenue of the liquor industry experienced slight growth during the Spring Festival season, but the growth rate has declined compared to 2024, indicating that the industry is still in an adjustment period [1] - High-end liquor showed stable growth, while the revenue growth of mid-range liquor approached zero, leading to increased differentiation among real estate liquor and other types [1] - As of May, the liquor industry is transitioning from a traditional off-season to a small peak season during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival, with expectations for mainstream product prices to stabilize due to recovering demand [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Dongwu Securities maintains a positive mid-term outlook for the liquor sector, emphasizing the importance of positioning over timing, and suggests monitoring indicators such as the stability of Moutai's prices and changes in channel inventory [1] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the liquor sector is facing a demand gap, but the risk of further decline is limited as the demand is at a historical low [2] - CICC expects that the liquor demand will gradually recover, supported by a relatively loose policy environment and low base effects from the previous year [2] Group 3: Company Specifics - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has been developed into a leading private liquor enterprise in China, with its main brands contributing 65.2%, 15.8%, and 17.4% to the revenue in 2023, respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Zhenjiu Lidu reveals a significant decline in net profit for 2024, indicating challenges in the current liquor industry cycle and highlighting issues with brand performance and market positioning [1][3][8]. Financial Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu reported an operating income of 7.07 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 43.1% to 1.324 billion yuan, primarily due to changes in the fair value of non-operating financial instruments [1][3]. - Adjusted net profit stood at 1.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [1]. - The overall net profit margin decreased from 33.10% in 2023 to 18.73% in 2024 [3]. Brand Performance - The core brand, Zhenjiu, generated revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year, and has seen a continuous decline in sales for four consecutive years, with sales dropping to 12,284 tons [3][5]. - The Lidu brand, however, achieved revenue growth of 1.313 billion yuan, an 18% increase, attributed to market expansion beyond Jiangxi [3][5]. - The other brands, Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao, focused on the Hunan market, with revenues accounting for 11.4% and 4.8% respectively, and Kaikouxiao's revenue decreased by 12% due to a sluggish wedding market [3][5]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from high-end products accounted for approximately 24% of total revenue, with a decline of nearly 11% to 1.709 billion yuan; mid-range and below products generated about 2.36 billion yuan, with a minimal growth of 0.1% [5]. - The company has implemented various strategies to enhance its high-end offerings, including launching new premium products and hosting experiential events, but faces ongoing challenges in achieving higher market positioning [5]. Inventory and Operational Challenges - The inventory turnover days increased significantly to 854.95 days in Q4 2024 from 679.64 days at the end of Q3, indicating rising inventory pressure [7]. - Despite expressing confidence in future growth and aspirations to become a world-class brewing enterprise, the company faces numerous uncertainties and challenges in navigating the current adjustment period in the liquor industry [8].