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山西汾酒(600809):主品基本盘稳健,渠道持续优化
Western Securities· 2025-10-31 12:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [6] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 32.924 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.00% [1] - The company focuses on long-term development by controlling volume and improving quality, with a significant increase in direct sales through group purchases and e-commerce channels [2] - The company is expected to have substantial room for national expansion and high-end product development due to its strong brand and differentiated product offerings [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 8.960 billion yuan, 2.899 billion yuan, and 2.895 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.05% but a decline in net profit by 1.38% [1][2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 74.63%, reflecting a slight improvement, while the net margin was 32.36%, down by 1.8% year-on-year [2] - The company’s contract liabilities decreased slightly to 5.78 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, indicating ongoing channel optimization [2] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.07 yuan, 10.33 yuan, and 10.85 yuan, respectively [2][4] - The projected revenue growth rates for the years 2025 to 2027 are 4.5%, 3.0%, and 5.1% [4]