证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 信心逐步企稳 白酒春节渠道跟踪报告 消费品/食品饮料 本篇报告重点反馈河南、江苏、四川、山东、安徽等地白酒渠道春节动销情况， 综合来看，26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑），各价格带分 化延续，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端有一定压力。政商务延续承压， 大众消费场景需求提振显著、占比持续提升。除茅台、五粮液等强势品牌外， 多数品牌不再要求开门红，节后库存低于去年同期，渠道压力继续释放，叠加 费用兑付周期加快，经销商与终端信心逐步企稳。价格侧考虑到茅台供需具备 支撑，其他多品牌价格调整接近触底、26 年不再强压任务，后续淡季下探空间 有限，春节后行业配置建议精选强势头部品牌与动销超预期品种。 ❑ 26 年春节动销符合预期、品牌分化延续、渠道信心逐步企稳。 1）行业整体动销方面：26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑）， 分价格带来看，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端具有一定压力。分消费 场景来看，政商务需求仍然承压，家庭消费与个人聚饮等大众消费需求明显 提振，占比持续提升，悦己属性不断强化。 2）任务执行进度方面：当前除 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of regulating the liquor market to ensure product quality and consumer safety, highlighting the enforcement actions taken against businesses violating trademark and food safety laws [2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Lanzhou market supervision department is intensifying efforts to crack down on illegal liquor sales and ensure compliance with relevant laws [2]. - A total of ten typical cases of trademark infringement and food safety violations have been publicly exposed, showcasing the department's commitment to a "zero tolerance" policy [2]. Group 2: Case Summaries - Case 1: Yuzhong *he Trading Company was fined 50,000 yuan for selling trademark-infringing liquor, including "Flying Moutai" and "Wuliangye" [3]. - Case 2: Qilihe District *Hui Jin Convenience Store was fined 23,919 yuan for selling trademark-infringing "Fenjiu" and other brands [4]. - Case 3: Qilihe District *Ma Convenience Store was fined 7,500 yuan for selling trademark-infringing "Wuliangye" [5]. - Case 4: Chengguan District *Li Comprehensive Store was fined 7,380 yuan for selling trademark-infringing "Wuliangye" [6]. - Case 5: Qilihe District *Pin Tobacco and Alcohol Retail Store was fined 5,148 yuan for selling trademark-infringing "Rouhe Jinhui" [6]. - Case 6: Qilihe District *Duhao Convenience Store was fined 3,408 yuan for selling trademark-infringing "Jianan Chun" [6]. - Case 7: Gaolan *Ge Convenience Store was fined 2,088 yuan for selling trademark-infringing "Fenjiu" [6]. - Case 8: Gansu *Xiong Trading Company was fined 6,080 yuan for selling "Tianchi Huangjiu" with incorrect alcohol content labeling [7]. - Case 9: Chengguan District *Jiang Liquor Business was fined 5,080 yuan for selling "Shuanggou Daqu" with incorrect alcohol content labeling [7]. - Case 10: Chengguan District *Tan Liquor Store was fined 2,285 yuan for selling bulk liquor that did not meet food safety standards [7].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu's stock price has experienced a decline, with a 3.17% drop year-to-date and a 15.57% drop over the past 60 days, indicating potential challenges in the market [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 32.924 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.00% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 11.405 billion yuan, showing a modest increase of 0.48% year-on-year [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shanxi Fenjiu was 80,000, a decrease of 23.37% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 30.50% to 15,252 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Shanxi Fenjiu has distributed a total of 24.325 billion yuan in dividends, with 16.775 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top circulating shareholder was the China Securities Index White Wine Index A, holding 38.6514 million shares, an increase of 4.5109 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, the fourth-largest shareholder, reduced its holdings by 21.8352 million shares to 27.1639 million shares [3].

2月3日，工业和信息化部正式公布2025年度"中国消费名品"名单，全国共有276个优秀品牌脱颖而出，涵盖轻工、纺织、食品、医药四大关键民生消费领 域。其中，山东景芝白酒有限公司申报的"景芝"品牌，凭借其深厚的文化底蕴、卓越的产品品质与广泛的市场认可，成功入选并荣获"历史经典品牌"这一 殊荣，本次入选的还有"汾酒""洋河""古井贡""剑南春"等品牌。 | 发文机关:工业和信息化部办公厅 | | | --- | --- | | 标 题： 工业和信息化部办公厅关于公布2025年度中国消费名品名单的通知 | | | 发文字号: 工信厅消费函〔2026〕37号 | | | 成文日期： 2026-01-27 | 发布日期: 2026-02-03 | | 发布机构:工业和信息化部 | 分 类:产业政策 | | | | | 序号 | 品牌名称 | 申报单位 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 历史经典 | | | 1 | 六必居 | 北京六必居食品有限公司 | | | 2 | 祥禾婷婷铺 | 天津鸿宝祥食品科技有限公司 | | | 3 | 汾酒 | 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 | ...

Core Points - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has announced the list of 2025 Consumer Brands, which includes 276 brands, comprising 165 enterprise brands, 76 regional brands, and 35 brands suitable for specific demographics [1][2]. Group 1: Announcement Details - The announcement aims to implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party and accelerate the promotion of new industrialization [2]. - The selection process involved enterprise applications, preliminary reviews by provincial departments, expert evaluations, and public announcements [2]. - Local governments are encouraged to promote these brands and provide policy support to cultivate distinctive industries and quality consumer brands [2]. Group 2: Brand Categories - The list includes 165 enterprise brands, 76 regional brands, and 35 brands for specific demographics [1][2]. - Notable enterprise brands include well-known names such as "Fenjiu," "Yanghe," and "Midea" [3][4][5]. - Regional brands represent various local specialties, such as "Beijing Erguotou" and "Jilin Red Ginseng," showcasing regional characteristics [12][13][14]. Group 3: Compliance and Management - Consumer brands are required to comply with national laws and regulations, operate with integrity, and fulfill social responsibilities [2]. - The Ministry will establish a management mechanism to conduct regular assessments and revoke qualifications for brands involved in illegal activities or significant quality and safety incidents [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, with a focus on four main investment themes: cost advantages, efficiency improvements, innovation-driven growth, and opportunities for recovery in distressed segments [3][10]. - The report highlights the increasing bottom signals in the liquor market, particularly for baijiu, and emphasizes the importance of sales performance during the Spring Festival [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - Baijiu prices, particularly for Moutai, are stable with a slight increase, and attention is drawn to the sales rhythm during the Spring Festival. The report recommends Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao as top picks, while also suggesting to monitor other brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Wuliangye [2][10]. - The report anticipates a continued trend of small liquor companies exiting the market, with a projected production decline of 12.1% for baijiu in 2025 [10]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer as key players to watch [11][10]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly focusing on konjac snacks, with companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi showing strong product innovation and competitive advantages [12][10]. Food Supply Chain - The food supply chain is entering a peak season for stocking and sales, with a focus on pre-prepared dishes. The report recommends leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as well as companies that are expanding their channels like Qianwei Yangchun [13][14]. Dairy Products - The report suggests a cautious outlook for dairy companies due to competitive pressures, but highlights the potential for recovery in 2026, particularly for leading companies like Yili [14][10]. Beverages - The beverage sector is currently in a de-stocking phase, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival. The report continues to recommend companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are accelerating their national expansion [15][10].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Sector 1. Demand for Moutai is more resilient than expected, with significant price declines anticipated in 2025, effectively stimulating demand [1] 2. The Baijiu sector shows clear signs of bottoming out, as traditional wholesale prices for Moutai have stopped declining and are beginning to recover [1][2] 3. The macroeconomic environment is gradually improving, leading to a small recovery in business demand and accelerating sales ahead of the holiday season [2][3] Key Insights on Consumer Behavior 1. The upcoming Spring Festival, a peak consumption period for food and beverages, is expected to release pent-up demand for stocking up on products [3][4] 2. The low performance base in Q1 2026, combined with government policies promoting domestic demand and consumption, is likely to result in strong performance for the food sector [4] Investment Opportunities 1. Focus on three key segments for investment in 2026: raw milk/dairy products, snacks, and the restaurant supply chain [4] 2. The restaurant supply chain is showing clear bottom characteristics, with market share concentrating towards leading companies after years of intense competition [4] 3. Downstream restaurant clients are shifting focus from price competition to product quality and innovation, benefiting leading suppliers [4] Company-Specific Recommendations 1. **Guizhou Moutai**: The company is undergoing market-oriented reforms and emphasizes sustainable development amidst declining demand [4] 2. **Shanxi Fenjiu**: The growth potential is highly certain, with product structure upgrades and accelerated national expansion [4] 3. **Ximai Foods**: Steady growth in the oatmeal sector, with rapid progress in new channel development [4][5] 4. **Weilong Delicious**: Expected to maintain rapid growth in konjac products, which are still in a favorable market phase [5] 5. **Ganyuan Foods**: Positive outlook for the company’s turnaround, with trends improving across channels and significant performance elasticity anticipated in Q1 2026 [5] Additional Insights 1. Improvement in raw material costs is expected to support revenue growth and enhance profitability [5] 2. The overall sentiment in the Baijiu sector indicates a potential cyclical reversal in 2026, presenting investment opportunities [3]

责任编辑：小浪快报 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）成立日期2012年5月4日，最新规模4222.58亿。今年以来收益1.99%， 同类排名4476/5551；近一年收益26.78%，同类排名2889/4285；成立以来收益120.49%。 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）基金经理为柳军。 截至发稿，柳军累计任职时间16年244天，现任基金资产总规模5509.28亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 193.73%， 任职期间最差基金回报-45.64%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 1月29日，山西汾酒涨5.03%，截至发稿，报169.40元/股，成交19.37亿元，换手率0.96%，总市值 2066.62亿元。 资料显示，山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司位于山西省汾阳市杏花村，成立日期1985年12月25日，上市 日期1994年1月6日，公司主营业务涉及汾酒、竹叶青酒及其系列酒的生产、销售。主营业务收入构成 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu's stock price has shown a decline of 4.09% year-to-date, with significant drops over various trading periods, indicating potential challenges in market performance [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 32.924 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.00% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 11.405 billion yuan, showing a modest increase of 0.48% year-on-year [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shanxi Fenjiu was 80,000, a decrease of 23.37% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 30.50% to 15,252 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Shanxi Fenjiu has distributed a total of 24.325 billion yuan in dividends, with 16.775 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included notable entities such as the China Securities White Wine Index A, which increased its holdings by 4.5109 million shares [3]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reduced its holdings by 2.18352 million shares, while the E Fund Blue Chip Selected Mixed Fund also saw a decrease of 1.0039 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first certified Chinese Baijiu sommeliers marks a significant step towards standardizing service in the Chinese Baijiu industry, enhancing the quality and cultural appreciation of Baijiu [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The first certification ceremony for Chinese Baijiu sommeliers took place on January 23, featuring 40 graduates who passed the certification by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association [1]. - The event included a cocktail presentation, "Oriental Sunrise," which blends traditional elements with innovative expressions [1]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The establishment of certified sommeliers is seen as a milestone for service upgrades in the Baijiu industry, transitioning from scale growth to value cultivation [3]. - The initiative aims to address talent shortages and improve industry standards, promoting a more refined and diversified market [3]. Group 3: Company Strategy - Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu Group emphasizes a long-term commitment to quality through technology and traditional craftsmanship, positioning the sommelier program as a key strategy for brand enhancement and sustainable development [3]. - The sommelier program is intended to integrate Eastern and Western service styles, transforming the cultural heritage of Baijiu into a competitive service advantage [3]. Group 4: Cultural Integration - The event showcased a performance themed "Qingyun Sommelier," highlighting the deep integration of Baijiu's qualities with traditional cultural elements such as poetry, tea, and flowers [4]. - The initiative aims to unlock the flavor profile of Baijiu through precise service and sensory guidance, enhancing consumer experience and promoting a new dimension of dining culture [4].