Core Viewpoint - The "Moutai myth" is collapsing as the price of Moutai has significantly dropped, leading to substantial losses for investors who once viewed it as a guaranteed profit opportunity [1][3]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of 53-degree Flying Moutai has fallen to 1500 yuan, nearing its guidance price of 1499 yuan, with a decline of 50 yuan and 55 yuan for different product types within just eight days [1]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the price of Flying Moutai has experienced a "halving" decline, starting from around 2200 yuan per bottle and dropping below 2000 yuan in June, 1800 yuan in August, and reaching a low of 1590 yuan by the end of November, resulting in a cumulative decline of over 25% in six months [3]. Stock Performance - Moutai's stock price has also suffered, dropping below 1400 yuan, which is a 40% decrease from its peak of 2437 yuan in 2021, leading to heated debates about whether the stock has hit bottom [3]. Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, 20 listed liquor companies reported their worst performance in a decade, with 18 companies experiencing significant profit declines, while only Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu saw revenue and profit increases [4]. - The overall profit decline in the industry has a median drop of 64%, with major players like Wuliangye seeing profits plummet by 65% [4]. Inventory and Sales Issues - The high-end liquor market is facing a price collapse, with Wuliangye reducing prices for the first time in a decade, leading to a situation where prices are now inverted [6]. - The average inventory turnover days for the liquor industry have increased significantly to 1424 days, up 65.21% from the previous year, indicating that distributors are struggling to sell their stock [6][9]. - Over 60% of liquor companies are experiencing price inversions, particularly in the high-end segment priced between 800 to 1000 yuan, reflecting a disconnect between supply and actual consumer demand [9]. Market Dynamics - The traditional reliance on "channel pressure" for revenue growth is becoming unsustainable as consumer demand weakens, leading to significant inventory risks for distributors [6][11]. - The driving forces behind the growth of the Chinese liquor industry, namely real estate and population growth, are showing clear signs of weakness, with recent regulations further exacerbating the situation [11].