白酒行业调整改革

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舍得酒业(600702):经营业绩改善,调整改革效果显现
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-24 13:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's operating performance has significantly improved, with cash flow and advance payments being reasonable [3] - The revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 met market expectations, despite a year-on-year decline [2] - The growth in ordinary liquor sales has compensated for some declines in high-end liquor, indicating a stabilizing distribution system [4] - The company has effectively controlled costs, showing potential for recovery in profitability [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, down 17.41% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 443 million yuan, down 24.98% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 1.125 billion yuan, a decline of 3.44% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 139.48% year-on-year to 97 million yuan [3] Product and Sales Analysis - In Q2 2025, liquor revenue decreased by 4.52% year-on-year, with high-end liquor revenue down 15.65% and ordinary liquor revenue up 62.25%, driven by strong sales of the main product T68 [4] - The company had 2,585 distributors at the end of Q2 2025, indicating a gradual stabilization in the distribution system [4] Regional Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue from within the province decreased by 21.20% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province increased by 4.84% [5] Cost Control and Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 60.60%, a slight decrease of 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, with the overall gross margin for H1 2025 down 3.73 percentage points [6] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 improved to 8.56%, an increase of 4.92 percentage points year-on-year, although it remains low compared to peers in the liquor industry [7] Investment Recommendations - The company's revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected revenues of 4.898 billion yuan, 5.315 billion yuan, and 5.670 billion yuan respectively [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same period have been adjusted to 1.87 yuan, 2.12 yuan, and 2.30 yuan [8]