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盈利压力指数
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张瑜:供改的压力度量
一瑜中的· 2025-03-21 07:14
Core Viewpoint - The report aims to analyze the pressure of supply-side reform quantitatively by constructing a dynamic indicator, the Profit Pressure Index, which can explain the supply-side reform at the end of 2015 and observe various industry conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Indicator Requirements - The indicator must meet two requirements: first, it should be a local peak in 2015, ideally the highest since 2000, or at least since 2011; second, it should reflect significant pressure in industries like coal, steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals in 2015 [4][14]. Group 2: Profit Pressure Index Construction - The Profit Pressure Index for an industry is calculated as the absolute value of the losses of loss-making companies divided by the sum of the absolute losses and profits of all companies in that industry. The index ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating greater pressure [5][16]. Group 3: Indicator Validation - In 2015, the industrial enterprise profit pressure index was 15%, the highest since 2011 and second only to 2008, confirming it as a suitable point for supply-side reform [6][17]. - The analysis of various industries in 2015 showed that the highest profit pressure indices were in black metal smelting, non-ferrous metal smelting, and coal mining, indicating these were the most pressured sectors [7][18]. Group 4: Current Supply-Side Reform Pressure Measurement - The overall profit pressure index for A-share industrial enterprises rose to 6.7% in the first three quarters of 2024, still below the 10.5% recorded in the same period of 2015 [10][20]. - Key industries currently under pressure include power equipment, structural materials, common steel, and coal chemical industries, with the power equipment sector showing the highest profit pressure index since 2000 [11][21].