证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 26 年 月 日 新兴铸管（000778.SZ） 季度盈利环比大增，关注基建需求潜力 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。公司上半年实现营业收入 177.28 亿元，同比减少 5.36%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润 4.04 亿元，同比减少 5.58%；基本每股收益 0.1018 元，同比减少 5.04%。 季度盈利环比大增，二季度毛利率持续修复。公司 2025Q2 实现归母净利 2.67 亿元，同比 增加 3.92%，环比增长 94.77%；据中钢协统计，2025 年上半年重点统计钢铁企业利润总额 592 亿元，同比增长 63.26%，公司上半年盈利小幅下滑，但二季度盈利能力已逐步回升。 公司 2024Q3-2025Q2 逐季销售毛利率分别为 4.81%、4.84%、7.61%、8.10%，逐季销售 净利率分别为 0.36%、-4.98%、1.83%、3.05%，受益于行业供给端调控预期升温，叠加基 建投资及消费驱动的需求改善趋势，后续行业及公司盈利有望逐步好转。 产能挖潜空间大，产品结构同步改善。2025 年上半年金属产品销量同比 ...

投资策略点评 2025 年 08 月 25 日 机构关注度提升：电力设备、基础化工、食品饮料、 策略研究团队 机构调研信息是对基本面信息的重要补充，但信息量大且杂乱。为了清晰梳理 出调研中有效、增量信息，我们推出机构调研周跟踪系列，汇总最近一周、一 个月公开的机构调研信息，涵盖行业、个股两维度，包含调研热度（环比、同 比数据）、调研获得的行业及个股信息增量。 行业视角看机构调研情况:电力设备、基础化工、食品饮料、钢铁等关注度同 比增加 周度：上周，全 A 的被调研总次数有所回升，但仍低于 2024 年同期，显示调研 热度环比回温。一级行业中，按机构被调研总次数从高到低排序，电子、电力设 备、医药生物、基础化工、机械设备、汽车、计算机的关注度较高。 ——机构调研周跟踪 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 "机构调研信息"是投资者决策过程当中，重要的信息补充 机构调研是资本市场信息传递和价值挖掘的重要环节。对于专业机构而言，是深 度研究、投资决策的关键步骤。相 ...

证券研究报告|半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 23 年 月 日 新钢股份（600782.SH） 上半年扭亏为盈，产品结构持续改善 股价走势 -20% -4% 12% 28% 44% 60% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 新钢股份 沪深300 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报。公司上半年实现营业收入 175.12 亿元，同比减 少 18.33%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润 1.11 亿元，上年同期净亏损 7547.29 万元，扭亏为盈；基本每股收益 0.03 元，上年同期基本每股收益-0.02 元。 季度业绩改善，销售净利率环比抬升。公司 2025Q2 实现归母净利 0.99 亿元，同 比增加 22.3%，环比增加 690.99%，实现扣非归母净利 0.11 亿元，同比增加 106.28%，环比增加 115.3%；据中钢协统计，2025 年上半年重点统计钢铁企业 利润总额 592 亿元，同比增长 63.26%，统计局数据显示上半年黑色金属冶炼和压 延加工业利润总额 462.8 亿元，同比增长 1,369.2%，公司业绩与行业盈利同步改 善。公司 2024 ...

根据统计，山东钢铁2025年3月31日至2025年6月30日，主力资金净流出1414.7万元，游资资金净流出 1281.63万元，散户资金净流入2696.33万元。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 从股价来看，2025年3月31日至2025年6月30日，山东钢铁区间跌幅为2.26%，在此期间股东户数减少 5659.0户，减幅为2.66%。 | | | | 统计截止日 区间股价涨跌幅 股东户数 增减 增减比例 户均持股市值（元) 户均持股数（股) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-30 | -2.26% | 207228 -5659 | -2.66% | 6.71万 | 5.16万 | | 2025-03-31 | -8.28% | 212887 -5842 | -2.67% | 6.68万 | 5.03万 | | 2024-12-31 | -3.33% | 218729 9325 | 4.45% | 7.09万 | 4.89万 | | 2024-09-30 | 21.95% | 209404 320 | 0.15% | 7.66 ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 20 年 月 日 南钢股份（600282.SH） 季度利润同环比大增，改善趋势有望延续 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。公司上半年实现营业收入 289.44 亿元，同比减少 14.06%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润 14.63 亿元，同比增长 18.63%；基本每股收益 0.2373 元，同比增长 18.63%。 利润同环比大增，净利率持续改善。公司 2025Q2 实现归母净利8.85亿元，同比增长30.21%， 环比增长 52.94%，实现扣非归母净利 6.50 亿元，同比增长 10.30%，环比增长 30.28%； 据中钢协统计，2025 年上半年重点统计钢铁企业利润总额 592 亿元，同比增长 63.26%， 统计局数据显示上半年黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润总额 462.8 亿元，同比增长 1,369.2%，公司业绩与行业盈利同步大幅改善。公司 2024Q3-2025Q2 逐季销售毛利率分别 为 13.47%、12.02%、11.79%、14.52%，逐季销售净利率分别为 3.43%、3.40%、3.93%、 5.75%，受 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its performance for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 1.748 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.31% [1] - The company is focusing on product iteration and optimization, with the proportion of specialty steel sales increasing to 68.5%, up by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 690.61 million yuan, which is 33.99% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, an increase of 2.70 percentage points from 2023 [3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 62.794 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.02% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.748 billion yuan, an increase of 31.31% [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 1.186 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 111.05% [1] - The average CSPI (China Steel Price Index) for the first half of 2025 was 93.75 points, down 13.35% year-on-year, while the profits in the black metal smelting and rolling industry reached 46.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1370% [1] Product Development - The company has developed 75 new products, with 6 being "domestic first" or "import substitutes," including high-strength galvanized products with sales of 259,000 tons, up 97.7% year-on-year [2] - The market share of oriented silicon steel base materials exceeded 60%, with sales of 475,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 38% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to complete ultra-low emission modifications by the end of 2025, which may lead to a reduction in capital expenditures and an increase in dividend payout ratios [3] - The company is focused on high-end plate manufacturing, and with the improvement in industry demand and ongoing restructuring, profitability is expected to improve significantly [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a "healthy bull" phase, characterized by steady upward movement and a gradual increase in investor confidence, supported by government policies and capital market strategies [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Characteristics - The current market is defined as a "slow bull," with indices rising steadily and volatility decreasing, indicating a healthy market environment [2]. - Despite new highs in indices, most industries remain at moderate levels of crowding, suggesting no overall overheating in the market, allowing for a "multi-point blooming" phenomenon where various sectors and themes take turns in attracting investment [5]. - The market is witnessing a rotation of opportunities across different sectors, driven by the release of new economic trends and the transition from old to new growth drivers [5][25]. Group 2: Institutional Participation - Institutions are becoming the main source of incremental capital in the current market, with a significant increase in new institutional accounts since June, reaching historical highs [11][14]. - The performance of actively managed funds has improved, with average returns for stock and mixed funds rising by 20.62% and 20.48% respectively since the beginning of the year [7]. - The emergence of "doubling funds" indicates strong institutional investment capabilities, with historical patterns suggesting that such funds often lead to better performance in the following year [7]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The brokerage sector is highlighted as a direct vehicle for the "healthy bull," with expectations of increased trading activity and potential for excess returns as market conditions improve [15]. - The AI sector has emerged as a strong market leader, showing no signs of overheating despite its rapid ascent, indicating a sustainable growth trajectory [17][25]. - The military industry is expected to benefit from upcoming events and strategic planning, with historical precedents suggesting significant price movements in response to military parades and policy meetings [31][34]. Group 4: Long-term Trends - The "anti-involution" theme is identified as a long-term focus for the market, with policies aimed at breaking negative cycles and promoting healthy competition across various industries [41][43]. - Key industries such as steel, glass fiber, and new energy chains are positioned to benefit from anti-involution policies, with strong participation intentions and potential for positive changes in profitability [43].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a high and then a pullback, losing the 3700-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3666.44 points, down 0.46% [1][2] - The ChiNext Index fell over 1%, indicating weakness in small-cap stocks, while the total trading volume in the A-share market increased significantly, reaching 230.66 billion yuan [1][2] Stock Performance - Over 4600 stocks in the market were in the red, with only 734 stocks rising, highlighting a broad market decline [3] - The insurance sector showed resilience, with China Pacific Insurance rising nearly 5% and New China Life Insurance up nearly 3% [3][4] - The semiconductor sector saw a notable rise, with Cambrian Technology's stock price surging over 14%, reaching a peak of 985 yuan per share, marking a more than 20-fold increase from its low of 46.59 yuan in April 2022 [6][10] Cambrian Technology Insights - Cambrian Technology's strong performance is attributed to market speculation about increased procurement of substrates and wafers, although the company denied these rumors [9] - The company is positioned as a key player in the domestic AI chip market, benefiting from the ongoing trend of domestic chip replacement amid U.S. export restrictions on high-performance AI chips [10] - The market anticipates that Cambrian's capabilities in self-developed instruction sets and microarchitecture will allow it to thrive in a "de-Americanization" context, enhancing its market position [10] Notable Stock Movements - Several previously strong stocks, including Yuhua Tian and Xinjiang Communications Construction, experienced significant declines, with some hitting the daily limit down [11][12] - Nine consecutive trading days of limit-up for Hai Li Co. raised concerns about the stock's price detachment from its fundamentals, prompting warnings for investors [27]

Market Overview - On August 12, the general steel sector experienced a decline of 1.05%, with Baogang Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3665.92, up 0.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11351.63, up 0.53% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable performers included: - Ba Yi Steel (600581) with a closing price of 5.13, up 10.09% and a trading volume of 2.657 million shares, totaling 1.317 billion yuan [1] - Hangang Co. (600126) closed at 8.92, up 1.59% with a trading volume of 1.003 million shares, totaling 889 million yuan [1] - Conversely, Baogang Co. (600010) closed at 2.51, down 2.33% with a trading volume of 10.239 million shares, totaling 257.5 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The steel sector saw a net outflow of 633 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 467 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed: - Hangang Co. had a net inflow of 71.4246 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 45.5242 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Ba Yi Steel experienced a net inflow of 21.9463 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 29.27 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The high dividend sectors in the Hong Kong stock market have long-term investment value under the current liquidity easing environment, driven by stable earnings in banks and improved supply-demand dynamics in midstream material industries [1] Group 1: High Dividend Sectors - High dividend stocks continue to attract low-cost capital inflows due to declining non-standard investment returns [1] - The banking sector maintains stable profitability and dividend levels, contributing to the attractiveness of high dividend stocks [1] - The PPI stabilization expectations enhance the profitability recovery of companies in the midstream materials sector, such as coke and rebar [1] Group 2: Insurance Sector - The insurance sector shows a strong trend towards concentration among leading companies, with improved performance certainty driven by long-cycle assessments and interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects 30 liquid stocks with high dividend yields [1] - The index primarily covers traditional high dividend sectors such as banking, ports, and highways, while also including industrial metals and telecom operators [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF linked A (022274) and C (022275) [1]