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欢聚:直播调整符合预期,关注广告增长
HTSC· 2025-05-29 07:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $60.10 [5][10][6] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was $494 million, a year-over-year decrease of 12.44%, but it met market expectations. Adjusted net profit was $63 million, slightly above expectations due to a faster reduction in losses from the "All other" segment. The company is actively managing expenses and has returned $71.6 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [1][4] - The BIGO segment reported revenue of $432 million, down 14.5% year-over-year, with live streaming revenue at $352 million, down 20.5%. However, non-live business revenue grew by 27.4% to $80 million, driven by advertising growth. The company expects a sequential increase in live streaming revenue in Q2 2025 and an acceleration in advertising growth in Q3 2025 [2][4] - The "All other" segment's revenue was $60 million, with a year-over-year increase of 6%. The adjusted operating loss narrowed by 30.6% due to better-than-expected gross margins in non-live businesses and cautious expense management. The company anticipates further reductions in the expense ratio for this segment in 2025 [3][4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company expects revenues of $2.09 billion, $2.18 billion, and $2.30 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected at $265 million, $285 million, and $307 million for the same years. The target price is based on a 25 PE of 11.8x, reflecting an upward adjustment due to comparable company valuations [4][10][12]