Group 1: Social Media Stocks Overview - JOYY, Trump Media & Technology Group, Strive, and Weibo are highlighted as key social media stocks to monitor, based on their recent trading volumes [2] - Social media stocks are primarily valued on user growth, engagement metrics, advertising revenue, and data monetization, often exhibiting higher volatility due to user behavior changes and regulatory scrutiny [2] Group 2: JOYY Inc. Operations - JOYY Inc. operates various video-based social media platforms through its segments, BIGO and All Other, including Bigo Live, Likee, imo, Hago, and Shopline [3][4] - Bigo Live is a live streaming platform that allows users to host and watch live sessions, while Likee focuses on short-form video creation and sharing [3][4] - Hago integrates casual gaming with social features, and imo provides instant messaging services including audio and video communication [3][4] Group 3: Trump Media & Technology Group - Trump Media & Technology Group operates social media platforms including TRUTH Social, TMTG+, and TMTG News, and was founded on March 28, 2024 [4] Group 4: Strive and Weibo Operations - Strive (Asset Entities Inc.) offers social media marketing and content delivery services across platforms like Discord and TikTok, focusing on community server management [5] - Weibo Corporation operates as a social media platform in China, providing advertising and marketing services, along with value-added services to enhance user interaction and content discovery [6]

证券研究报告 科技/可选消费 AI 破局：海外广告平台的效率革命 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 18 日│中国香港 深度研究 海外广告平台进入技术红利与估值重构共振新周期 在反垄断与后隐私政策时代，海外广告迎来 AI 驱动的变现效率革命。行业核 心逻辑由标签追踪转向实时意图预测，原本基于用户 ID 体系的围墙花园出现 松动，开放网络中具备全栈 AI 底座的头部平台强势崛起，凭借领先的变现效 率与盈利弹性，正主导预算结构性重构并享受估值溢价。我们建议关注在这 一轮技术长周期中产业链布局相对完善、垂类数据积累深厚、具备自研算法 和良好工程能力的标的，包括 AppLovin、Unity、汇量科技、欢聚、有道。 反垄断与 AI 技术进步赋予开放网络平台新机遇 在全球数字广告迈入万亿美金规模且流量分配趋于稳定的背景下，原本由围 墙花园主导的预算格局在反垄断政策与 AI 技术共同驱动下迎来"再平衡"。 DMA 等反垄断政策的实施迫使"围墙花园"向开放网络平台开放部分关键 数据接口和流量入口，而 AI 技术的深度介入则帮助 AppLovin 等独立平台在 长尾流量变现效率上实现突破。这种变革为开放网络广告平台提供了新的发 ...

Market Overview - A-shares collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% to 4,095 points, and over 3,800 stocks fell amid cautious market sentiment[16] - Brent crude oil prices remained above $100 per barrel for the second consecutive trading day, with a rise of 3.1% on Friday, closing at $98.71 per barrel[27] - The U.S. stock market saw the S&P 500 drop 0.6%, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices[10] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth for Q4 was significantly revised down to 0.7% from 1.4%, indicating a slowdown in economic activity[30] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.5, slightly below market expectations, reflecting consumer concerns amid rising inflation[30] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the technology sector led declines, with the Information Technology Index down 1.29%, while defensive sectors like Utilities rose by 0.94%[10] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.98%, with notable declines in the technology sector, while energy stocks gained due to rising oil prices[12] Investment Insights - Nvidia's upcoming GTC 2026 conference is anticipated to provide insights into AI developments, with a target price of $300, reflecting potential growth in the AI sector[9] - Joyy Inc. reported strong earnings, exceeding market expectations, with a target price of $92, driven by robust advertising growth and a diversified business model[9] Currency and Commodity Trends - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.6% to 100.36, reflecting a strengthening dollar amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions[26] - Gold prices fell by 1.2% to $5,061.7 per ounce, as market concerns about the economic impact of the Iran conflict weighed on demand for precious metals[27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of $59.80 and a fair value of $78.28 [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of $582 million for Q4 2025, showing a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 6% and a quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth of 8%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2% [8]. - The live streaming business is showing signs of recovery, while advertising revenue continues to grow rapidly, with Q4 advertising revenue reaching $145 million, a YoY increase of 62% and a QoQ increase of 29% [8]. - The company plans to distribute an additional special dividend of $20 million in Q4 2025, enhancing shareholder returns [8]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024 to 2028 are as follows: $2,238 million in 2024, $2,124 million in 2025, $2,325 million in 2026, $2,565 million in 2027, and $2,945 million in 2028, with growth rates of -1%, -5%, 9%, 10%, and 15% respectively [2]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to be $298 million in 2024, $283 million in 2025, $307 million in 2026, $393 million in 2027, and $531 million in 2028, with growth rates of 2%, -5%, 9%, 28%, and 35% respectively [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be $5.16 in 2024, $5.38 in 2025, $6.14 in 2026, $8.16 in 2027, and $11.45 in 2028 [2]. Revenue Breakdown - The company’s Q4 2025 revenue breakdown includes $394 million from live streaming, which is a YoY decrease of 7% but a QoQ increase of 2%, and $42 million from other income, which shows a YoY increase of 12% and a QoQ increase of 7% [8]. - The global monthly active users (MAU) reached 272 million in Q4 2025, reflecting a YoY increase of 3% and a QoQ increase of 2% [8].

Core Insights - JOYY Inc. reported a total revenue of US$581.9 million for Q4 2025, marking a 5.9% year-over-year growth and a 7.7% quarter-over-quarter increase, indicating a return to revenue growth [1] - Livestreaming revenue reached US$394.4 million, up 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, while BIGO Ads revenue surged 61.5% year-over-year to US$128.1 million [1] - For the full year 2025, total revenue was US$2.12 billion, with livestreaming contributing US$1.53 billion and BIGO Ads contributing US$398.5 million, reflecting a 38.5% year-over-year growth [1] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP operating income for Q4 2025 was US$40.8 million, with non-GAAP EBITDA at US$189.8 million for the full year, both showing over 10% growth year-over-year [1] - Operating cash flow for Q4 totaled US$116.0 million, and the company held US$3.26 billion in net cash as of December 31, 2025 [1] - JOYY distributed approximately US$332.0 million in dividends and share repurchases throughout 2025, with an additional cash dividend of US$20 million planned for Q1 2026 [1] Business Highlights - JOYY's social entertainment business achieved its third consecutive quarter of sequential growth, with global average mobile MAUs reaching 272.1 million, up 2.2% quarter-over-quarter [1] - Bigo Live launched its first all-live reality show in North America, resulting in a 3% organic DAU spike during the event [2] - BIGO Ads recorded revenue of US$128.1 million in Q4, up 61.5% year-over-year, driven by broader traffic coverage and ongoing algorithm optimization [2] Advertising and User Engagement - Third-party Audience Network ad revenues grew 82.5% year-over-year, with significant increases in both web-based and mobile-based demand [2] - The number of key accounts for BIGO Ads increased by 29%, with total spending from these accounts rising 34% quarter-over-quarter [2] - User adoption of AI-generated virtual gifts on Bigo Live surpassed 30% of total virtual gift consumption as of January 2026 [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenue reached $581.9 million, up 7.7% quarter-over-quarter and 5.9% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year growth since Q2 2024 [4][18] - Non-GAAP operating profit was $40.8 million, with operating cash flow totaling $116 million [5][25] - For the full year 2025, total revenue was $2.12 billion, with live streaming contributing $1.53 billion and BIGO Ads contributing $398.5 million, up 38.5% year-over-year [6][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Live streaming revenue was $394.4 million, up 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, marking three consecutive quarters of growth [5][10] - BIGO Ads generated $128.1 million in revenue, up 61.5% year-over-year, with third-party audience network revenue growth accelerating to 82.5% year-over-year [5][12] - Non-live streaming businesses represented 32.2% of total revenue, an increase of 7.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [6][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global social MAUs reached 272.1 million, up 2.2% quarter-over-quarter, with traffic from instant messaging increasing by 4.5% [9][10] - The American market recorded a strong recovery, with revenue climbing 3.4% quarter-over-quarter [10] - By region, North America saw an increase of over 21% quarter-over-quarter, while Western Europe rose 46% quarter-over-quarter [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a strategic framework as a global technology company with multiple growth engines, including social entertainment, ad tech, and e-commerce services [4][8] - The board approved an additional cash dividend of approximately $20 million, demonstrating commitment to operational improvement and shareholder returns [7][26] - A new segment reporting structure is being evaluated for 2026 to enhance visibility of progress within each business [8][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in returning to sustainable and profitable growth, with expectations for live streaming revenue to achieve steady positive year-over-year growth in 2026 [9][34] - The advertising business is expected to deliver mid-double-digit year-over-year growth in Q1 2026, despite seasonal softness [37][46] - The company anticipates continued strong performance from BIGO Ads and e-commerce SaaS, with a focus on expanding R&D and sales capabilities [40][41] Other Important Information - The company held $3.26 billion in net cash as of December 31, 2025, supporting consistent shareholder returns [6][25] - The company repurchased 67.4 million shares in Q4 2025, with total repurchases for the year reaching 134.6 million [16][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Key factors for recovery in live streaming business and long-term trend - Management highlighted improvements in streamer incentives, content offerings, and AI optimizations as key drivers for recovery, expecting steady positive growth in 2026 [33][34] Question: 2026 outlook for revenue and profit guidance - Management provided guidance for Q1 2026, expecting group revenue growth of 8.8%-10.9%, with live streaming returning to positive year-over-year growth [36][37] Question: Key drivers of advertising growth in Q1 2026 - Management noted a diversified advertiser mix and algorithm optimizations as key drivers, expecting mid-double-digit growth despite seasonal softness [44][46] Question: Long-term profitability of third-party ads business - Management discussed the mutual reinforcement of traffic growth, advertiser demand, and algorithm improvements as long-term drivers for BIGO Ads, targeting $1 billion in revenue by 2028 [50][52] Question: Current business momentum of Shopline and path to breakeven - Management indicated that Shopline is on a clear path to breakeven by 2028, driven by product excellence and rising gross profit [56][59] Question: Considerations behind additional cash dividend and share buyback intentions - Management explained the strong capital return execution and commitment to enhancing shareholder returns, indicating plans to continue share buybacks [61][64]

Core Viewpoint - JOYY Inc. reported a strong financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, marking a pivotal moment in its revenue growth trajectory, driven by improvements in live streaming and advertising revenues [9][10]. Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Highlights - Net revenues reached US$581.9 million, a 5.9% increase from US$549.4 million in Q4 2024 and a 7.7% increase from US$540.2 million in Q3 2025 [6][14]. - Live streaming revenues were US$394.4 million, up 1.5% from US$388.5 million in Q3 2025, but down from US$422.4 million in Q4 2024 [5][15]. - Advertising revenues surged by 62.4% to US$145.4 million from US$89.6 million in Q4 2024, and increased by 29.3% from US$112.5 million in Q3 2025 [16]. - Other revenues rose by 12.3% to US$42.1 million compared to US$37.5 million in Q4 2024 [17]. - Operating income was US$18.3 million, a significant recovery from an operating loss of US$427.9 million in Q4 2024 [22]. - Net income from continuing operations attributable to controlling interest was US$54.3 million, compared to a net loss of US$304.1 million in Q4 2024 [25]. Full Year 2025 Highlights - Total net revenues for 2025 were US$2,124.2 million, down from US$2,237.8 million in 2024 [30]. - Live streaming revenues totaled US$1,529.7 million, a decrease from US$1,788.0 million in 2024 [30]. - Advertising revenues increased by 37.1% to US$442.7 million from US$323.0 million in 2024 [31]. - Operating income for the year was US$55.8 million, compared to an operating loss of US$405.6 million in 2024 [32]. - Net income from continuing operations attributable to controlling interest was US$222.5 million, a recovery from a net loss of US$146.2 million in 2024 [33]. Business Highlights - Global average mobile MAUs reached 272.1 million in Q4 2025, up 3.4% from 263.1 million in Q4 2024 [4]. - The live streaming business showed its third consecutive quarter of revenue recovery, with a 1.5% increase quarter-over-quarter [10]. - BIGO Ads revenues reached US$128.1 million in Q4 2025, representing a 61.5% year-over-year increase [10]. - The number of total paying users for BIGO rose by 1.5% quarter-over-quarter to 1.54 million, with ARPPU reaching US$222.8 [11]. - Non-live streaming revenues reached US$187.5 million in Q4 2025, up 47.6% year-over-year, constituting 32.2% of total net revenues [11]. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - As of December 31, 2025, the company had net cash of US$3,258.0 million [28]. - The company returned US$332.0 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends throughout 2025 [12]. - A cash dividend of US$0.99 per ADS is expected to be paid, along with an additional cash dividend of US$0.39 per ADS, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder value [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - JOYY Inc. is set to release its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results on March 10, 2026, after the U.S. market closes, followed by an earnings conference call [1] Group 1: Financial Results Announcement - The financial results will be announced after the U.S. market closes on March 10, 2026 [1] - An earnings conference call is scheduled for 9:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time on the same day [1] - Participants can register online in advance to receive dial-in numbers and a unique PIN [1][2] Group 2: Company Overview - JOYY Inc. is a leading global technology company focused on enriching lives through technology [3] - The company has a diversified product portfolio that includes live streaming, short-form videos, instant messaging, and emerging initiatives like advertising and smart commerce SaaS [3] - JOYY is headquartered in Singapore and operates globally, empowering creators, merchants, and enterprises [3] - The company's American Depositary Shares (ADSs) have been listed on NASDAQ since November 2012 [3]

Core Insights - The company plans to return approximately $900 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends from 2025 to 2027, with $237 million already completed by November 14, 2025 [2] - The company aims to expand its AI advertising technology platform, BIGO Ads, in high-value markets such as North America and Europe in 2026, while also optimizing its iOS ecosystem [2] - The live streaming business is expected to return to steady growth in 2026 after two consecutive quarters of sequential growth, potentially supported by new regional operations or product iterations [2] Shareholder Return Plan - The company announced a plan to return about $900 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends from 2025 to 2027 [2] - As of November 14, 2025, the company has completed $237 million in buybacks and dividends [2] - Management emphasized accelerating buybacks to enhance shareholder returns during the earnings call [2] Strategic Advancement - The company will focus on expanding its AI advertising technology platform, BIGO Ads, in high-value markets, particularly in North America and Europe [2] - There will be an optimization of the iOS ecosystem integration [2] - The management anticipates that the live streaming business will return to a steady growth trajectory in 2026 [2] Performance and Operational Status - The company typically releases quarterly earnings reports, with 2026 earnings to be disclosed throughout the year [3] - Investors should monitor the progress of the live streaming and advertising businesses, user metrics (such as MAU), and cash flow status, with net cash reported at $3.32 billion as of September 30, 2025 [3] - This information will help assess the effectiveness of the company's diversification strategy [3]

Core Viewpoint - JOYY has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on rising earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements, suggesting that upward revisions can lead to increased buying pressure and higher stock prices [4][5]. - JOYY's earnings estimate for the fiscal year ending December 2025 is projected at $5.13 per share, remaining unchanged from the previous year, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 9.1% over the past three months [8]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - Only the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a "Strong Buy" rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions, which positions JOYY favorably for potential market-beating returns [10].