Core Insights - The traditional strategy of "watching stocks or commodities to invest in bonds" has become ineffective due to two main forces: significant volatility in commodity prices with limited inflation effects on the bond market, and the growing demand for dividend insurance, leading to a "stock-bond co-movement" pattern [2][12][53] - Recent fluctuations in the US stock and precious metals markets are primarily driven by changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership and deleveraging pressures, with indirect effects on the bond market [2][6] Group 1: Commodity Price Dynamics - Since the end of last year, commodity prices have experienced two phases of increase, initially focused on precious and industrial metals, later expanding to energy and agricultural products, with recent significant corrections in precious metals [3][13] - The overall price increase in commodities is more cost-driven and input-driven, with potential negative impacts on demand and inventory pressures [3][29] - The inflation effects from rising commodity prices are expected to lead to a positive shift in PPI by the second quarter, while the impact on CPI will be indirect and moderate [3][24][27] Group 2: Dividend Insurance and Fund Flows - There has been a significant shift in the asset structure of domestic residents, with a "migration of deposits" towards long-term financial products, particularly dividend insurance, which has become a core flow of funds into the stock and bond markets [4][35] - The scale of maturing deposits this year is approximately 50 trillion yuan, with declining bank deposit rates prompting a search for higher-yielding investment channels [4][35] - Dividend insurance, with its "guaranteed return + floating dividend" structure, has attracted substantial inflows, supporting the stock and bond markets [4][36][48] Group 3: Strategy Ineffectiveness - The traditional strategy's failure is attributed to changes in the underlying logic: the inflation effects of rising commodity prices are diverging from economic impacts, and the expansion of long-term funds like dividend insurance is altering the funding landscape [5][53] - The current market dynamics show that the correlation between stocks, bonds, and commodities has been disrupted, leading to a "stock-bond co-movement" rather than the traditional inverse relationship [5][53]