贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2026/01/08 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | - | - | 2362.00 | 1773.00 | - | 13120.50 | | 变化 | - | - | 116.00 | 51.00 | - | -251.50 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 98.74 | 1.17 | 1.35 | 156.78 | - | | | 变化 | 0.14 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.11 | - | | 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the potential for significant investment opportunities in the commodities sector, particularly in metals like gold, silver, and copper, as they are expected to perform well in 2025 due to various economic factors and geopolitical uncertainties [5][6]. Group 1: A-shares Market - The A-share market is projected to experience a slow bull market in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 49.57% [7]. - The bull market is supported by stable policy and improving macroeconomic conditions, particularly a phase of easing in China-U.S. relations [8][9]. - The market is expected to continue its structural bull market into 2026, characterized by selective sector performance rather than broad-based gains [10][11]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to show a mixed performance, with strong IPO activity in 2025 leading to liquidity constraints [18][19]. - The Hang Seng Index's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have been downgraded to a range of -1.4% to -2.7%, reflecting weak fundamentals [19][20]. - The market's recovery is closely tied to the improvement of the mainland Chinese economy, which significantly influences Hong Kong's market dynamics [20]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market faces risks from high valuations and potential corrections if growth expectations are adjusted downward [22][23]. - Despite concerns about a tech bubble, the underlying technological advancements are seen as a long-term positive for the market [22]. - Key risks include the potential for high inflation leading to "stagflation" and the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in stimulating the economy [23][24]. Group 4: Gold Market - Gold prices have surged, with COMEX gold rising approximately 64% in 2025, driven by central bank demand and geopolitical tensions [26][27]. - The shift in market sentiment towards safety and the changing macroeconomic environment are expected to sustain gold's attractiveness as an investment [27][28]. - The article notes that while gold's price growth may not be as rapid as in 2025, the long-term outlook remains positive due to increasing inflation and fiscal challenges [28][29]. Group 5: Bond Market - The bond market is currently facing challenges, with the 10-year Treasury bond ETF showing minimal growth in 2025 [32][34]. - The mismatch between market expectations and actual monetary policy actions has led to a decline in bond prices despite a generally favorable interest rate environment [34][35]. - Short-term bonds are recommended for risk-averse investors, while longer-duration bonds may be more suitable for those willing to engage in market timing [37][38].

2025年，白银的涨势甚至比黄金更为迅猛，不仅创下历史新高，还突破了除最狂热的市场观察人士外、此前被认为不可思议的水平。除了提振黄金的因素 外，白银还受益于市场持续担忧美国政府最终可能对精炼金属征收进口关税。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："贵金属在2026年的走势与2025年大致相同，也就是说，有向前的势头。贵金属似乎正在弥补年底的抛售，本 周早些时候的抛售曾令其苦恼。年底的平仓压力已经缓解，现在基本面再次成为焦点，黄金将以上涨开启2026年。 " 贵金属去年经历了一轮凶猛的上涨行情，尽管12月下旬因部分投资者获利了结且交易指标显示超买状态，市场出现了显著波动。得益于央行购金、美联储宽 松政策以及美元走软，金价在2025年创下了一系列历史新高。此外，地缘政治紧张局势和美国主导的贸易摩擦引发的避险需求也提供了支撑。 2026年交易开局，金银价格双双走高，延续了自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。 金价逼近每盎司4400美元，白银重回74美元上方。尽管交易员们指出，受美国进一步降息和美元走软的提振，贵金属在2026年可能表现不俗，但近期市场担 忧广泛的指数再平衡可能会给价格带来压力。鉴 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 12月生意社BPI延续回暖。产业"叙事"仍在延续，叠加美联储降息周期支撑风险偏好，有色金属延续 上涨，贵金属中白银领涨。截至12月第四周，生意社BPI指数录得899点，相较11月末环比回升2.4%。其中 能源、有色指数（月环比）分别为-4.2%、11.4%。 第二， 12月内盘定价大宗商品涨跌互现。其中螺纹、焦煤期货价涨幅靠前，月环比涨幅分别录得3.8%、 9.8%；环渤海动力煤现货、玻璃期货价月环比回落16.8%、10.9%；化工产品、水泥价格指数稳中有升，月 环 比 分 别 录 得 1.7% 、 0.6% 。 南 华 综 合 指 数 （ 期 末 值 ） 环 比 收 涨 3.1% ， 月 均 值 同 比 录 得 3.0% （ 前 值 0.2%）。 第三， 四大一线城市房价延续调整。截至12月22日（最新数据），北上广深四大一线城市二手房挂牌价格指 数相较前月最后一周环比录得-1.0%、-1.9%、-1.1%、-1.2% 。 第四， 存储芯片、碳酸锂等新兴制造业上游价格偏强，光伏行业综合指数回暖。12月 ...

受供应中断、美元走弱、中国经济增长预期改善以及人工智能领域巨额支出的推动，铜价正迎来十多年 来最大的年度涨幅。 分析师表示，这一工业金属的涨势可能延续至明年，尤其是在供应担忧加剧以及全球数据中心规模快速 扩张的背景下。 Astris Advisory Japan大宗商品策略师伊恩·罗珀（Ian Roper）特别指出，全球人工智能需求热潮是铜价 的最新驱动因素，"极度紧张"的市场格局可能意味着这一金属明年涨幅将进一步扩大。 "铜已成为可再生能源、电动汽车建设的最大受益者之一，而现在，数据中心无疑是新的增长亮点。"罗 珀在12月23日接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）丹·墨菲（Dan Murphy）采访时表示。机构分 歧：摩根大通看涨，高盛唱空短期但长期乐观 周二，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜价格上涨1.5%，报12405美元/吨，在创下12960美元/吨的历 史新高后，近期涨幅有所收窄。 这一基准合约今年以来已上涨约41%，有望创下2009年以来的最佳年度表现——2009年，随着各国走出 全球金融危机，铜价涨幅超过140%。 在纽约市场，2025年初至今铜价也已飙升逾40%，同样有望创下2009年以 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【国泰海通建议1月超配风险资产】12月30日，国泰海通表示，美联储如期降息并超预期扩表，或阶段 性降低投资者的政策不确定性与市场博弈性。全球权益和大宗商品仍有表现机会，建议1月超配风险资 产。具体配置权重方面，建议权益配置权重为50.00%，债券为35.00%，商品为15.00%。2026年1月权益 配置权重建议为47.50%，其中超配A股、港股（10.00%）、美股（17.50%），低配欧股（2.50%）、印 股（2.50%），标配日股（5.00%）。权益资产配置理由，一是多重因素支持中国权益表现，建议超配 A/H股。工作会议临近，2026年是十五五开局之年，广义赤字或扩张，政策将更积极。美联储12月降 息，人民币升值，为中国货币宽松创造条件，改革也提振市场风险偏好。二是"金发姑娘"背景渐显利于 美股表现，建议超配美股。美国边际降温但有韧性，内生性通胀粘性减弱，企业盈利预期或支撑美股中 枢上行。 ...

投资策略 [Table_MainInfo] A 股业绩支撑：政策呵护逻辑下的价格水平 ——A 股市场投资策略专题报告 | 究 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150514080001 | 2025 | 12 | 30 | [Table_Analysis] | [Table_Summary] | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师 | 投资要点： | 宋亦威 | | | | | | | | | | | | 就 | 年行情的业绩支撑而言，并不来自于量的超预期增长，而来自于 | ⚫ | 2026 | 022-23861608 | 价格端的有效支撑。从今年 | 月、11 | 月的情况来看，PPI | 价格已经连续 | 10 | | | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 两月出现环比转正，这种态势如能持续，将意味着明年 | 同比降幅将 | PPI | | | | | | | | | | | [Table_Author] | 严 ...

新年初迎配置窗口，建议超配风险资产 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | | | 王子翌(分析师) | | | 021-38038293 | | | wangziyi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 11 月超配 AH 股与工业商品 2025.11.10 10 月超配权益与黄金，标配债券 2025.10.15 稳固结构蓄势能，9 月建议超配权益 2025.09.06 黄金屡创新高，国内资产风险平价策略本年收益 达到 0.95% 2025.04.09 A 股稳中求胜，消费风格攻守兼备 2025.04.06 研 究 报 告 策 略 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 资 国泰海通资产配置月度方案 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing significant volatility, with a sharp decline in prices following a substantial increase earlier in the month. Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for silver remains bullish due to structural supply-demand imbalances [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Risks - The first risk is tax-driven selling, as investors holding significant unrealized gains may sell before year-end to benefit from long-term capital gains tax rates, leading to selling pressure in the last trading days of 2025 [4]. - The second risk involves a potential strengthening of the US dollar, driven by strong GDP growth data, which typically exerts pressure on dollar-denominated commodities [5]. - The third risk is an increase in margin requirements for silver, which may reduce leverage and speculative demand. Current margin levels are at 17%, significantly higher than the peak levels during the 2011 silver price crash [6][7]. - The fourth risk is technical selling, as analysts suggest silver is in an "overbought" condition. However, some argue that the price increase is driven by rigid demand from the solar industry rather than purely technical factors [8]. - The fifth risk is the threat of copper substitution in industrial applications, particularly in the solar manufacturing sector, which could lead to technical selling despite the long-term transition period required for such a shift [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A technical pressure is anticipated from the upcoming annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January 2026, which may force passive funds to sell approximately 9% of their silver futures positions, exacerbating market volatility [12]. - Despite these short-term risks, the long-term fundamentals for silver remain strong, with significant structural tightness in the physical market indicated by a large premium of spot prices over futures [13]. - Investment demand for silver is not overly crowded, with speculative net long positions at 19% of open interest, compared to 31% for gold, suggesting room for further price increases [14]. - The solar industry is expected to drive long-term demand for silver, with projections indicating a rise in silver demand from 290 million ounces in 2025 to 450 million ounces by 2030, fundamentally altering the silver market landscape [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities rebounded significantly, with most varieties seeing an uptick, including both industrial and agricultural product indices. The reasons include the poor US employment data and controllable inflation data, which may give the Federal Reserve a basis to continue cutting interest rates in the first half of 2026, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite; the domestic economic situation is weak with strong supply and weak demand, and the black - series performed worse than other sectors [3]. - Considering the latest changes in economic growth momentum and the relatively high base in the same period last year, it is expected that the economic operation in the first quarter of 2026 will still face certain downward pressure. Therefore, monetary policy is expected to end the observation period and enter the active stage to stabilize the economic operation in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - In the short term, market sentiment has improved, and commodities have rebounded. This is due to the possible Fed rate - cuts in the first half of 2026, positive domestic policy tones after important meetings, and geopolitical factors such as the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and potential US actions against Venezuela, which will cause fluctuations in energy prices and drive a phased rebound in energy prices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **GDP**: In the third quarter, the US real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%, reaching the fastest growth rate in two years. The PCE price index annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate was 2.9%, in line with expectations but maintaining a high level. The core driving factor for the strong growth in the third quarter was the better - than - expected performance on the consumption side. However, due to factors such as the previous federal government "shutdown", the economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to slow down significantly, and the annual growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 2% or lower [3]. - **Employment Data**: In November, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, better than the market expectation of 50,000. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, higher than 4.4% in September and slightly higher than the expected 4.5%, reaching a new high since September 2021. If the unemployment rate further rises to 4.7% in December, it may trigger the "Sam Rule" recession indicator again [3]. - **Inflation Data**: The US inflation rate in November was significantly lower than market expectations, showing a cooling trend. The CPI in November was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI year - on - year dropped to 2.6%, also lower than the expected 3%. The poor employment data and controllable inflation data may give the Federal Reserve a basis to continue cutting interest rates in the first half of 2026 [3]. - **Other Regions**: In the eurozone, the PMI in December showed certain changes compared with November. In Japan, the export and import data and CPI data in November also had corresponding performance [18][22]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 27, 2025, China's industrial enterprise profit data in November showed the characteristics of "slight cumulative increase, single - month pressure, and structural differentiation". In November, the revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was stable, but profits declined. The year - on - year decline in operating income narrowed, but the year - on - year decline in profits widened. The overall profitability still lacks effective support, and weak domestic demand remains a drag on corporate profitability [3]. - **LPR**: On December 22, 2025, the central bank issued a credit repair policy and kept the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR unchanged. The credit repair policy can accurately distinguish overdue types and optimize the allocation of credit resources, and the stability of LPR helps maintain internal and external balance. Considering the economic situation, it is expected that the monetary policy will enter the active stage to stabilize the economic operation in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report tracks the开工率 of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率. For example, on December 26, the开工 rate of PTA in the polyester industry chain was 72%, and the开工 rate of POY was 86% [38]. - **Consumer - related Data**: It also tracks data such as the wholesale and retail data of manufacturers and the inventory data of some products. For example, on December 25, certain data showed specific percentage changes [45]. - **Commodity Price Data**: The report monitors the prices of some commodities, such as the average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices [47].