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全球制裁下俄罗斯经济不倒?靠2326吨黄金撑场,价值超3000 亿美金
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 12:14
俄乌冲突爆发后,遭到了来自全球的一系列制裁。但俄罗斯经济得以依靠一个关键支撑支柱维持运转,那就是黄金。 俄罗斯央行在2006年从黄金净卖出方转变为净买入方,并已积累起全球规模最大的黄金储备之一。这些黄金储备是普京构建 "堡垒俄罗斯" 经济计划的一部 分,旨在让俄罗斯经济不受制裁影响。 近几周,金价大幅上涨,普京的这一策略取得了显著成效。周三,黄金价格首次突破每盎司4000美元,今年以来的涨幅已超过50%。 受此次金价上涨推动,俄罗斯2326.5吨黄金储备的价值略超3020亿美元。 此次金价最新一轮上涨,主要源于市场对人工智能(AI)类股泡沫的担忧、对美国政府停摆的忧虑,以及法国总理塞巴斯蒂安・勒科尔尼的意外辞职。 然而,黄金价格近年来一直呈暴涨态势。自2023年底以来,金价已翻倍;自2006年俄罗斯开始囤积黄金以来,金价更是飙升了841%。 世界黄金协会的数据显示,2014年前后,也就是普京吞并克里米亚期间,俄罗斯央行大幅加大了黄金购买力度。在随后的五年里,俄罗斯购入了1258吨黄 金,这使其跻身全球黄金储备第六大国之列。 如今,在全球各国对俄罗斯采取回避态度的背景下,俄罗斯正从中获利。今年8月,俄罗斯是全球 ...
史上首次!纽约黄金期货价格盘中突破4000美元,年内大涨逾50%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 06:24
荷兰国际集团(ING)大宗商品专家指出,金价再度刷新历史高位,核心驱动因素在于美国政府持续停 摆引发的避险情绪升温,推动投资者加大对黄金这一避险资产的配置需求。 与此同时,现货黄金报3976.94美元/盎司,同样创下历史新高。10月6日,伦敦现货金先是突破3900美 元大关,紧接着又破3950美元大关,日内涨超70美元,涨幅达1.8%,再度刷新历史纪录;COMEX黄金 期货大涨1.8%,最高触及3983美元,逼近4000美元大关。 当地时间10月6日晚,美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格盘中一度突破每盎司4000美元。外媒报道,这 是纽约黄金期货价格历史上首次突破这一关口。截至目前,纽约期金年内大涨逾50%。 ...
海外对冲基金:AI投机狂潮接近尾声,重仓铀铜等商品对冲泡沫风险
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-10-03 10:38
随着AI热潮将美股推向历史新高,一家海外冲基金正在为潜在的"巨大风险"做准备。Selwood Asset Management认为,当前由AI驱动的投机狂热正接近顶峰,一场迅速的瓦解可能即将到来,该基金正调 整其投资组合以应对可能产生的连锁反应。 据报道,该基金的股票首席投资官Karim Moussalem周四在接受采访时警告称,AI领域的交易正"开始 类似于市场历史上的一次巨大投机狂潮"。他在LinkedIn的一篇帖子中表示: "对我而言,不可否认的是,我们正处于一个由散户投资者彻底推动的泡沫之中。" Moussalem认为,AI所依赖的能源成本正在成为其最大的软肋,市场目前被"动量和叙事的力量"所蒙 蔽,忽视了AI巨头们在资本支出、盈利能力和估值方面面临的潜在风险。他尤其担心,飙升的能源价 格可能会限制AI的扩张能力,并最终刺破泡沫。 因此,Selwood Asset Management的策略并非直接做空波动剧烈的科技股,而是转向看好能源相关大宗 商品。Moussalem认为,在当前环境下,能源领域是"一个绝佳的去处",他已建立铀和铜等大宗商品的 多头头寸,押注它们将从AI对能源的巨大需求中受益。 估值 ...
降息=美元贬值?错了!你不知道的逆转逻辑,看懂才能保住钱袋子
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-03 07:38
近日,市场关于美联储降息的讨论再度升温,无数投资者的目光聚焦于大洋彼岸的每一次风吹草动。一个流传甚广的"基础逻辑"认为:美联储一旦降息,美 元汇率就会下跌。 然而,这个看似顺理成章的逻辑,实则存在巨大的认知陷阱,甚至常常与事实相反。理解这一点,是把握未来全球资产走势的关键钥匙。 我们必须彻底摒弃"利率降,汇率贬"的线性思维。汇率是两国经济相对强弱的综合反映,而非单一利率指标所能决定。 美联储降息对美元汇率的影响,绝非简单的负相关,其核心取决于降息的性质——是"预防式降息"还是"衰退式降息"?这两者有着天壤之别。 预防式降息:为经济"延寿"的明智之举 这好比一个身体健壮的人,为了预防未来可能出现的健康问题而提前进行保养和调理。当美国经济数据出现一些疲软迹象,但整体依然强劲(如就业 市场稳健、消费能力尚可)时,美联储为了给经济的"过热"降温,延长经济扩张周期,防止其过早进入衰退而采取的降息行为,就是预防式降息。市 场影响:在这种情况下,降息被视为一剂"预防针",意味着美联储有能力且正在主动管理经济风险。市场信心可能因此得到提振,美元资产的吸引力 未必会下降。因为投资者看到的是一个正在被精心呵护、有望实现"软着陆" ...
【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的9月经济:价格篇
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-09-30 07:23
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in various commodity prices, highlighting the mixed performance across sectors, with some showing strength due to external factors like overseas interest rate cuts and supply disruptions in Indonesia [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index recorded 865 points as of September 29, reflecting a 0.5% decrease from the end of August, with energy prices down 0.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 3.8% month-on-month [1][4]. - Domestic demand for bulk commodities saw most prices increase, with glass and coking coal futures rising by 15.2% and 2.1% respectively, while chemical products and cement prices saw slight declines [9][10]. - The South China comprehensive index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year average increase of 6.0% compared to the previous 3.3% [9][10]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The housing prices in major cities continued to adjust, with the second-hand housing price index for four first-tier cities showing changes of -0.7%, -0.4%, 1.6%, and -0.2% respectively compared to the last week of August [10]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors showed strong price performance, with the photovoltaic industry composite index rising by 6.9% month-on-month, and the DXI index for the semiconductor sector increasing by 25.7% [11][11]. Group 4: Non-Food Prices - The ICPI index, representing non-food prices, slightly increased to 100.20 as of September 29, with notable increases in housing, daily necessities, and transportation services [14]. - In the export shipping sector, container shipping prices generally declined, with the CCFI index down by 6.0% [14][15]. Group 5: Logistics and Food Prices - The average monthly value of the highway logistics price index increased by 0.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous 0.8% [18]. - Food prices showed mixed trends, with a 3.1% decrease in the average wholesale price of pork, while key vegetable prices rose by 1.4% [19].
杭州:2027年力争实现数字贸易额4400亿元
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 13:53
Core Insights - The fourth Global Digital Trade Expo highlighted Hangzhou's ambition to leverage the expo's spillover effects to accelerate the transformation of results and establish a core area for global digital trade ports by 2027, targeting a digital trade volume of 440 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Digital Trade Development - Hangzhou aims to utilize its high digital trade volume, leading position in service outsourcing pilot cities, and being the first national cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone to develop a global digital trade port core area [1] - The city plans to strengthen its capabilities in bulk commodity futures, spot trading, entrusted funds, profitability, and professional talent, focusing on creating a smart trade hub for bulk commodities [1] Group 2: Industry Cluster and AI Initiatives - Hangzhou intends to cultivate 12 trillion-yuan-level industrial clusters in sectors such as energy chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals, positioning itself as the leading city for smart trade in bulk commodities [1] - As a region where the artificial intelligence industry accounts for 70% of Zhejiang province's total, Hangzhou seeks national support to pilot comprehensive reforms in the AI industry chain within its free trade zone and aims to establish an international cooperation service alliance for AI [1]
大类资产运行周报(20250922-20250926):美国通胀数据符合预期,大宗商品整体上涨-20250929
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 11:01
Tabl e_Title 2025 年 9 月 29 日 大类资产运行周报(20250922-20250926) 美国通胀数据符合预期 大宗商品整体 上涨 风险提示:美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | -1.14% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.41% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.54% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.61% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | -0.44% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.55% SAC 执业证书编号:S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.02% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 2.92% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号:F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 资料来源:Wind 资讯 相关 ...
宏观经济专题:9月出口或仍有强韧性
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-29 09:02
何宁(分析师) 郭晓彬(分析师) hening@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790525070004 供需:建筑开工分化,工业开工偏强,需求略弱 1.建筑开工:石油沥青装置开工率明显回升。最近两周(9 月 15 日至 9 月 28 日), 水泥发运率、磨机运转率仍位于同期历史中低位,石油沥青装置开工率回升至历 史中位。基建项目水泥直供量有所回落,房建水泥用量亦有所回落,资金方面, 建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2024 年同期。 2.工业生产端,整体景气度仍处于历史中高位。最近两周,工业开工整体景气度 仍处于历史中高位。化工链中 PX 开工率维持历史中高位,PTA 开工率维持历史 中低位,汽车半钢胎开工率仅低于 2024 年同期,焦化企业开工率维持历史中高 位。 2025 年 09 月 29 日 9 月出口或仍有强韧性 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 2.二手房:成交量明显转暖。价格方面,截至 9 月 15 日,二手房出售挂牌价指 数环比延续回落;成交量方面,最近两周(9 月 15 日至 9 月 28 日),北京、上海、 深圳二 ...
美联储降息难撼商品基本面
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-24 03:55
周三(9月24日)亚盘早盘,美元指数最新价报97.35,涨幅0.13%,开盘价为97.23。凯投宏观的气候与 大宗商品经济学家HamadHussain在一份报告中写道,美联储最近的降息似乎并未对大宗商品价格构成 重大影响。 他表示,美国利率下降可能带来的任何价格提振作用,或将被其他因素抵消,并补充称,大宗商品市场 的基本面普遍看来疲软。他指出,由于需求增长放缓以及欧佩克+增加供应,从现在到2026年底,油价 可能会走低。他表示:"另一个关键因素是,美联储降息在多大程度上已被市场消化,这可能会限制对 大宗商品价格的任何额外支撑,甚至可能构成阻力。" 美元指数正测试关键技术水平,可能形成看跌收盘反转顶形态。若该形态得到确认,可能引发指数回调 至50%支撑位97.021。上行方面,50日平均线98.070及枢轴阻力位98.238构成强劲阻力。 ...
美联储如期降息,国内经济弱于预期
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products continuing to weaken. Macro factors are mixed, and fundamentals may dominate the trend. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. - Overseas, the new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus, the Fed cut interest rates, US retail sales grew, and the Eurozone's economic sentiment index increased [3]. - Domestically, due to factors such as slowing export growth, economic downward pressure has increased in August. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies, focusing on fiscal support, central bank interest rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Influencing Factors and Main Logic**: This week, the commodity index showed a trend of rising and then falling, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products weakening. The first half of the week was stimulated by factors such as progress in China - US trade negotiations and rising Fed interest - rate cut expectations, while the second half was suppressed by the landing of interest - rate cut expectations and the rebound of the US dollar index [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: From September 14th to 15th, China and the US reached a basic framework consensus in Madrid. On September 18th, the Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. On September 16th, US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: In August, due to factors like slowing export growth, economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, new incremental measures will be introduced, with the core being fiscal support, central bank interest - rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stabilize. The joint efforts of fiscal and monetary policies will focus on "stabilizing investment" and "promoting consumption" [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Macro factors are mixed. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, and the "restart of easing" will have an important impact on market liquidity [3]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, and the real retail sales after CPI adjustment increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month [3]. - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose, and the industrial output in July rebounded slightly [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - In August, due to factors such as slowing export growth, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial production, investment, and consumption continued to decline, and economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of "around 5.0%" [3]. - The cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turning positive is a positive signal, but the year - on - year decline in the transfer income of state - owned land use rights indicates that local land finance still faces certain pressure [3]. - Nine departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures from five aspects [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **开工率数据**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces are presented in the data, such as the operating rates of terephthalic acid, polyester, and weaving in the polyester industry chain, as well as the national and Tangshan blast furnace operating rates [33]. - **汽车销售数据**: The data shows the year - on - year growth rates of factory wholesale and retail sales, and specific sales data for September [42][45]. - **农产品价格数据**: The data includes the average wholesale prices of 28 key monitored vegetables, pork, and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices [47].