Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From March 23 to March 27, the Middle - East situation continued to affect the prices of major asset classes. Globally, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds continued to decline, and commodities showed relatively strong performance. In China, stocks and commodities declined, while the bond market fluctuated. Overall, in dollar terms, commodities > bonds > stocks globally, and bonds > commodities > stocks in China. The Middle - East situation remains highly uncertain and will continue to impact major asset prices in the short term [3][6][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Global Major Asset Performance 1.1 Global Stock Market Overview - Most major global stock markets declined in the week from March 23 to March 27. US stocks had the largest decline, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index rose weekly. For specific regions, in the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region dropped 1.52%, and the South Korean Composite Index fell 5.92%. In the European market, the ASCI Europe rose 0.12%. In the American market, the MSCI US declined 2.11%. In other markets, the Tel - Aviv 125 Index fell 5.22% [8][9][10] 1.2 Global Bond Market Overview - In the week of March 23 - 27, the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 5BP to 4.44%. The bond market declined weekly, with the performance order globally being credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds. The global bond index fell 0.49%, the global government bond index dropped 0.58%, and the global credit bond index decreased 0.38% [12] 1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From March 23 to March 27, the market's risk - aversion sentiment continued, and the US dollar index rose weekly, with a 0.67% increase. Most major non - US currencies declined against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly [12] 1.4 Global Commodity Market Overview - Geopolitical factors supported the weekly increase in international oil prices. Most prices of major international precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products rose. The CRB spot index: comprehensive rose 1.41%, Brent crude oil increased 1.80%, and WTI crude oil rose 3.15% [14][15] 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance 2.1 Domestic Stock Market Overview - Investor sentiment remained cautious. Major A - share broad - based indices generally declined, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. The CSI 500 index was more resilient. The basic chemicals and non - ferrous metals sectors rose, while the non - banking and computer sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% [18][19] 2.2 Domestic Bond Market Overview - From March 23 to March 27, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively stable, and the bond market fluctuated slightly stronger. Overall, government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds. The ChinaBond - Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.09% [20][21] 2.3 Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the chemical and non - ferrous sectors had the largest increases, while precious metals performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.25% [22][23] 3. Outlook for Major Asset Prices - Overall, the Middle - East situation remains highly uncertain and will continue to have a certain impact on major asset prices in the short term. It is necessary to closely monitor its changes [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main asset volatility is too restrained, and the stock and bond markets are under - priced. There are short - term bearish warnings for the equity market, bond market, and valuation - type metals, which have been fully realized in the market last week [12]. - Although the selling sentiment has slightly eased based on the hope of peace talks, the geopolitical situation is still deteriorating, and the risk of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing non - linearly over time. The key to judging macro - risks is whether the logistics in the strait can be restarted [12]. - Gold initially has certain "cost - effectiveness" as its relative valuation has declined while volatility remains high. The gold - silver ratio is in an upward repair channel [16][19]. - In April, there will be a real rebound in CPI data. The inflation expectation is currently under - priced, and there will be a real inflation shock in April and May [20][21]. - When the oil price is above $100 per barrel, the 2 - year inflation expectation tends to be significantly higher than the linear regression level, and the transmission of the 2 - year inflation expectation to the 2 - year US Treasury yield is more significant [23][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Assets and Market High - Frequency Data 3.1.1. Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed - Income Weekly Performance**: The yields of various - term US Treasuries and major developed country bonds have changed. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.43% on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of 4.82bp; the 10 - year German bond yield was 3.09% with a weekly change of 5.1bp [44][45]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spreads**: Track the changes in the US Treasury yield curve over 1, 3, and 6 months, as well as the long - short spreads of US Treasury yields [52]. - **Relative Strength of Credit Bonds with Different Ratings and Eurozone Bond Yields**: Analyze the relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds, and the spreads of Eurozone government bonds [61]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators**: Include the issuance of US short - term Treasury bills, medium - and long - term Treasuries, and the bid/subscription ratio of 2, 10, and 30 - year US Treasuries [70][74]. 3.1.2. Exchange Rate Market - **Weekly Performance of Major Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 100.1510 on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of 0.51%. The euro, yen, and other currencies also had corresponding changes [79][81]. - **Yield Spreads between Major Country Treasury Bonds and US Treasuries**: Analyze the 10 - year yield spreads between the US and G7 countries, and the 2 - year yield spreads between the US and Germany [82]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework**: The inter - bank 7 - day reverse repurchase serves as the "policy rate", and the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) and excess reserve ratio form the "interest rate corridor" [91]. - **Monthly Indicators of the RMB Exchange Rate**: Include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, and China's import and export year - on - year data [96]. - **High - Frequency Indicators of the RMB Exchange Rate**: Such as the yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasury bonds, and the DR007 and Hibor 7 - day interest rates [104]. 3.1.3. Commodities - **Weekly Performance of Major Commodities**: Brent crude oil reached $113 on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of 3.61%; London gold spot was $4494, with a weekly change of 0.04% [122][124]. - **Price Ratios of Major Commodities and Relative Strength of Industrial Chains**: Analyze the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and the relative strength of the energy - chemical and ferrous metal industrial chains [125]. - **Macro - Commodity High - Frequency Data**: Include OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventories [139][142]. 3.1.4. Overseas Equities - **Weekly Performance of Global Major Indexes and US Stock Sectors**: The S&P 500 index was 6368.85 on March 27, 2026, with a weekly change of - 2.12%. The S&P energy index had a weekly increase of 6.22%, while the S&P communication index had a weekly decrease of 7.17% [147][152]. - **Weekly Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking of US Stock Styles**: The US large - cap growth style had a weekly decline of 3.76%, and the US small - cap value style had a weekly increase of 0.46% [153][155]. - **Tracking of Best PE and EPS of US Stock Sectors**: Compare the current and pre - 1Q Best PE and EPS coordinates of 11 US stock sectors [158]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS Year - on - Year Trends of Major Indexes**: Analyze the EPS year - on - year trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indexes [163]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators**: Include the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX Index and the ICE Bond Volatility MOVE Index [170]. - **Tracking of US Stock Market Factors**: Track the total return performance of US stock market factors YTW (Year - to - Date) [179]. 3.1.5. Cryptocurrencies - **BTC, ETH, and Related Derivative Assets**: Track the Bitcoin futures main contract, non - commercial net positions, and the performance of cryptocurrency - related stocks [181][182]. 3.1.6. Post - YCC Era of the BOJ - **High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Yen Carry Trade System**: Include the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, the USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging cost, and the yen 3 - month volatility [189][191]. 3.2. Weekly Key Macroeconomic Logic Tracking and FICC Views - **Weekly Overseas Macroeconomic Highlights**: In the fifth week, there is hope for peace talks, but the real risks are still accumulating. The probability of a cease - fire between the US and Iran in April has dropped to 38%. The Strait of Hormuz is still under substantial blockade, and the risk of supply disruption is increasing [11]. - **FICC Asset Views**: - **US Dollar**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly with the oil price and risk sentiment, with support at 99.0 and an upper target of 104.5. In the long term, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, with an annual range of 96 - 108, and an upward risk [42]. - **Non - US Exchange Rates**: Most currencies in the G10 and Asian currency groups are undervalued against the US dollar. In the long term, attention should be paid to the change in geopolitical pricing [42]. - **10 - Year US Treasury Yield**: The short - term view is bearish, with a target of 4.45% reached. After considering the support at 4.35%, it is expected to remain strong. In the long term, the central rate of the 10 - year US Treasury is expected to be around 4.20%, with support at 3.95 - 4.00 and an upper target of 4.65% [42]. - **2 - Year US Treasury Yield**: The short - term view is bearish. The 10 - 2 spread may face resistance at around 55bp, with a preliminary target of 30bp. In the long term, the support is around 3.20%, and the upper target is 3.68% [42]. - **London Gold Spot**: In the short term, it can be speculated for a rebound under high volatility, but a trend increase requires time to digest the high volatility. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, with buying cost - effectiveness [42]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: It is in an upward repair channel [42]. 3.3. Macroeconomic Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data - **Real - Time Economic Momentum**: Include the Fed's nominal and real real - time GDP models, and the economic surprise indexes of the US, Europe, and China [199][203]. - **Financial Conditions**: Analyze the central bank's balance sheet and the financial conditions index, including the Fed's balance sheet and the G4 central banks' balance sheets as a percentage of GDP [207]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Include the US federal government's fiscal expenditure and revenue items, and the government's debt - to - GDP ratio [214][219]. - **Employment Market**: Track the US employment market on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, household surveys, and ADP data [222]. - **Inflation Indicators**: Analyze the breakdown of US inflation data, core drivers, and inflation expectations [229]. - **Consumption Demand**: Track US consumption data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, and housing mortgage applications [237][242]. - **Cycle Positioning**: Track industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, such as the LEI leading indicator, ISM PMI, and manufacturing new orders [259]. - **Credit Cycle**: Track the US credit situation, including SLOOS corporate credit surveys and high - yield corporate credit spreads [272]. - **Transportation and Logistics**: Track logistics data between China, Asia, Europe, and the US, including shipping volumes and port freight data [278][281][284]. - **Real Estate Market**: Analyze the US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate, including real estate indexes, mortgage rates, and commercial real estate loan delinquency rates [296][300]. - **Eurozone**: Analyze the Eurozone's macro - overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength, including deficit rates, inflation, and consumer confidence [305][313][322].

Core Viewpoint - A new bull market, termed the "Confidence Bull," has emerged since September 2024, driven by significant policy easing, abundant liquidity, and a new wave of technological revolution, marking a historic opportunity for investors in China [3][4][9]. Group 1: Characteristics of the Current Bull Market - This bull market is described as a once-in-a-decade event, comparable to previous major bull markets in 2004-2007 and 2014-2015, with the current market driven by policy easing, liquidity, and technological advancements [4][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a remarkable increase of 48% from its lowest point in 2024 to March 19, 2025, while the ChiNext Index surged by 116%, indicating significant market momentum [8]. - Trading volume has rebounded dramatically, with daily trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan, compared to a few hundred billion prior to September 2024 [8]. Group 2: Driving Forces Behind the Bull Market - The bull market is supported by three main drivers: continuous policy easing, a new technological revolution, and abundant liquidity, collectively referred to as the "Confidence Bull" [9][10]. - Policy easing has included interest rate cuts, relaxed housing market restrictions, and substantial infrastructure investments, which have significantly boosted market risk appetite and lowered risk-free rates [10][11]. - The technological revolution is characterized by advancements in artificial intelligence, robotics, and semiconductor industries, which are leading the market's growth [11]. Group 3: Historical Missions of the Bull Market - The current bull market is seen as fulfilling three historical missions: supporting the development of new productive forces, aiding in major power competition, and repairing household balance sheets [13][14]. - The market's growth is crucial for financing new economy sectors, which struggle to secure funding through traditional banking systems, thus requiring robust capital market support [13]. - The bull market is also expected to help restore consumer confidence and spending, which have been adversely affected by the real estate market downturn [15]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Outlook - The sustainability of the bull market hinges on continued macroeconomic policy easing, including further interest rate cuts and fiscal measures to stimulate demand [17][18]. - There is a potential for a "slow bull" market if the current conditions persist, which would significantly benefit the development of hard technology and economic recovery [17]. - The capital market's ability to maintain a healthy development trajectory is essential for enhancing resident wealth effects and stimulating economic vitality [19].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered the second phase of a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3450 points and the Wind All A Index exceeding 5400 points, indicating a shift towards a profit-driven market phase [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The market is expected to transition from a liquidity-driven phase, characterized by leading stocks, to a profit-driven phase where cyclical sectors will dominate [1] - The recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and expansion of total demand are key factors driving this transition [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities for the year will focus on two main themes: 1. Recovery of domestic demand and inflation chain, with attention on cyclical industries such as commodities and raw materials that benefit from fiscal stimulus, investment recovery, and rising PPI [1] 2. Long-term strategies and industry trends, continuing to focus on high-growth sectors representing new productive forces, including AI, robotics, new energy technologies, and commercial aerospace [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From March 2nd to March 6th, the global and domestic major asset performance showed a pattern of stocks and bonds declining while commodities rising, with commodities > bonds > stocks. The Middle - East situation remained tense, and the US February non - farm payrolls were negative, falling short of expectations. The dollar index rose weekly. The short - term impact of the Middle - East situation on major asset prices may continue [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Decline, Commodities Rise - **Global Stocks**: Global major stock markets generally declined. European stocks had the largest decline, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index rose significantly. For example, MSCI Europe fell 7.34% weekly [8][12]. - **Global Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose by 18BP to 4.15% weekly. The bond market declined, and high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds globally [14]. - **Global Foreign Exchange**: Affected by liquidity concerns, the dollar index rose 1.34% weekly, and major non - US currencies depreciated against the dollar, with the RMB exchange rate falling [15]. - **Global Commodity Market**: Geopolitical factors drove up international crude oil prices. International gold and silver prices fell significantly, major non - ferrous metals prices fluctuated, and agricultural product prices generally rose. For instance, Brent crude oil rose 27.47% weekly [17][18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks Decline, Bonds Perform Strongly, Commodities Rise - **Domestic Stocks**: A - share major broad - based indexes generally declined, but the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased. Large - cap blue - chips were relatively resistant to decline. The petroleum and petrochemical, and coal sectors led the gains, while the media and non - ferrous sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93% weekly [22]. - **Domestic Bonds**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 14,474 billion yuan, and the capital market was relatively loose. The bond market performed strongly, with government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. The energy and chemical sectors led the gains, while the precious metal sector performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 6.43% weekly [25][26]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - Middle - East major oil - producing countries have announced production cuts, and the Middle - East situation has had a real impact on crude oil production. The short - term impact on major asset prices may continue [28].

Group 1: Global Investment Trends - Since 2026, there has been a systemic revaluation of "hardcore" supply chain assets, with capital flowing towards resource, technology, and manufacturing sectors, indicating a global rebalancing trend[1] - Investment enthusiasm for U.S. stocks remains strong, but the marginal inflow has weakened since 2026, with a notable shift from technology to commodities and energy sectors[1][21] - Foreign investment in U.S. stocks has not shown significant reduction, maintaining a consistent inflow trend despite geopolitical tensions[33] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Dollar Dependency - Foreign official entities have not significantly reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, but there is a trend of decreasing custodial amounts at the Federal Reserve, indicating a decline in trust[24][30] - As of December 2025, the pace of bond accumulation by European and Japanese entities has slowed, while China and India are in a trend of reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings[28] - The attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds to overseas private investors has declined in 2026, with significant reductions in inflows from European investors[29] Group 3: Gold Investment Dynamics - Since 2025, private sector demand for gold has significantly increased, becoming a more critical pricing factor compared to central bank purchases[38] - The asset size of commodity alternative funds, particularly those focused on gold, has been on a continuous rise since 2025, reflecting growing investor interest[39] - The ongoing restructuring of the global monetary system and geopolitical conflicts are expected to sustain a long-term bullish trend for gold prices[39]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The economic recovery rhythm continues to be moderate, which nurtures a bullish environment for the bond market. However, attention should be paid to the disturbances brought about by the rebound in overseas risk appetite [2][6][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Things Not to Be Missed During the Spring Festival - Domestic Chapter 3.1.1. Culture and Tourism: The Extra - Long Spring Festival Holiday Drives Supply and Demand to Prosper The 9 - day "longest holiday in history" and "take 5 days off and get 15 days off" models drove the Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 to reach a record high. The extra - long holiday released the potential of tourism consumption, and the cultural and tourism market saw both supply and demand booming. The per - capita travel days of Tuniu users increased by 1.1 days compared to last year. The average price of domestic hotels during the festival was more than 30% higher than before the Spring Festival. The Hainan off - island duty - free market also performed strongly, with the shopping amount and the number of shoppers from the first to the fifth day of the first lunar month increasing by 19.1% and 24.6% year - on - year respectively [6][9][10][11]. 3.1.2. Consumption: "Ice and Fire" in the Spring Festival Consumption Market The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments jointly planned the "Happy Shopping in the Spring Festival" special event. Commodity consumption had a good start, with the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first two days of the holiday increasing by 10.6% year - on - year. Service consumption also showed strong growth in many aspects, but the Spring Festival box office in 2026 was lower than in previous years, showing a "decline in both volume and price" [6][12][14][15]. 3.1.3. Technology: From the Spring Festival Gala Technology to Frontier Breakthroughs The 2026 Spring Festival Gala became a stage for the concentrated implementation and commercial verification of domestic frontier technologies, focusing on robots and AI. Before and after the Spring Festival, domestic AI large models launched a "battle of hundreds of models", with technology iteration moving towards both practicality and high - order development. Global technology capital and giants were active, bringing development opportunities to domestic AI computing power and other industrial chains [6][16][17][19]. 3.1.4. Multi - assets: The Global Main Commodities Generally Rose During the Spring Festival (from February 13th to 20th, 2026), global main commodities generally rose, especially precious metals and energy. The CMX silver price led the increase with a 9.45% rise. The crude oil market also performed well. Most agricultural products and industrial metals rose, while the VIX index dropped significantly, indicating a significant increase in global market risk appetite [6][20]. 3.2. Weekly Review of the Bond Market - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates first rose and then fell. The central bank conducted a large - scale net injection in the open market. The DR001 rate rose 3.71bp to 1.31%, the DR007 rate fell 14.02bp to 1.32%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped 0.25bp to 1.58% [23][25]. - **Cash Bonds and Futures**: The cash bonds and futures generally strengthened. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds and national development bonds all declined. The primary market saw 66 interest - rate bonds issued, with a total of 6491 billion yuan, and a net financing of 5319 billion yuan [27]. - **Daily Performance**: The bond market generally strengthened throughout the week. The interest rates fluctuated and declined under the influence of factors such as the central bank's large - scale net injection and the weakening of overseas risk assets [29][33][34][35]. 3.3. Relative Value of Assets 3.3.1. Most of the Treasury Bond Term Spreads Narrowed, and the National Development Bond Term Spreads Varied Most of the treasury bond term spreads narrowed, while the 30Y - 10Y spread widened. The national development bond term spreads were differentiated, with the 2Y - 1Y and 3Y - 2Y spreads having relatively large changes. The implied tax rate mostly widened, the new - old bond spread narrowed, the non - national development - national development spread widened, and the local government bond spread showed different performances [38][39]. 3.3.2. The Term Spreads and Credit Spreads Generally Narrowed Most of the term spreads and credit spreads of various varieties narrowed. The term spreads and credit spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds all narrowed, while the 5 - year: medium - term note (AA) - medium - term note (AAA) spread and a few secondary capital bond term and credit spreads slightly widened [40][42][43].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that while the economic cycle is still early, some market valuations are too high, predicting high volatility in AI and tech stocks, with funds continuing to flow into "cheap" cyclical assets [1][2]. Economic Data and Market Performance - Economic data remains strong, supporting the performance of cyclical assets, with the US ISM index rising and labor market stabilizing [3]. - Globally, developed market manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in a year, and emerging market manufacturing PMI also increased month-on-month [4]. - Goldman Sachs indicates that the market is underestimating the growth outlook for the US economy, which is projected to grow at 2.5% for the year, suggesting room for upward adjustments in cyclical expectations [5]. Sector Rotation and Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to embrace cyclical assets benefiting from economic recovery while being cautious of overvalued AI and large tech stocks [2]. - Emerging market stocks, the Australian dollar, copper, and capital goods and materials sectors in the US have seen significant gains, while previously leading AI and tech themes have experienced volatility [2]. - The market is shifting from expensive tech stocks to cheaper exposures, particularly in underperforming sectors, leading to "value" outperforming "growth" [6]. AI Sector Dynamics - The AI sector is facing increased volatility, with Goldman Sachs acknowledging the real productivity gains from AI but noting that the market has overvalued these benefits, particularly for companies directly involved in the AI boom [6][9]. - Concerns are rising regarding cash flow consumption by large cloud service providers and potential disruptions to software providers and certain financial/real estate sectors [8]. Currency and Global Market Trends - The US dollar has weakened due to tariff concerns and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with the relative underperformance of US stocks compared to Europe and Japan prompting discussions on diversification and hedging [12]. - Currencies that align with global cyclical views, such as the Australian dollar, South African rand, Chilean peso, and Brazilian real, have become the biggest gainers against the US dollar [13]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests continuing to bet on cyclical assets while selecting those with relatively cheap valuations, as there is still room for upward adjustments in growth expectations [15]. - The combination of ongoing volatility in AI themes and the potential for periodic spillover into index-level volatility supports a diversified equity portfolio and healthy non-US exposure, including emerging markets [16].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement more aggressive monetary easing, driven by high national debt and interest payments, with Trump advocating for lower interest rates [3] - A significant surge in commodity prices is anticipated due to a combination of dollar depreciation, the Kondratiev wave cycle, and increased demand from AI, marking a potential "year of commodities" [4] - The wealth creation narrative is highlighted by Elon Musk's net worth surpassing $800 billion and the acquisition of AI unicorn MANUS by META for billions [7] Group 2 - An unprecedented stock market bull run is predicted, driven by policy, technology, and investor confidence [8] - Non-typical inflation is emerging, with stark contrasts in job markets and salaries between tech sectors and traditional industries [9] - Currency devaluation is expected, with a shift towards physical assets like gold and lithium, impacting cash asset holders [10] Group 3 - The trend of dollar devaluation and de-dollarization is gaining traction, with Trump advocating for a weaker dollar to benefit U.S. manufacturing [13] - The rise of new AI applications is anticipated, with predictions of significant job automation in white-collar sectors within the next 12-18 months [15] - Geopolitical tensions and trade wars are expected to create "black swan" events, impacting market stability [16] Group 4 - A significant portion of the population is projected to not profit from the upcoming bull market due to poor trading strategies and lack of fundamental analysis [17]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the global bull market is not over, but the driving forces have shifted from crowded US tech stocks to emerging markets, commodities, and value stocks [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Funds are moving from over-congested US tech stocks to emerging markets (EM), commodities, and "old economy" value stocks [3] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen from 100 to nearly 120 relative to developed markets since the beginning of 2025, indicating a significant revaluation [7] - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the stock market shows resilience, largely due to strong fundamentals and improved macro and micro drivers [9][8] Group 2: AI and Technology Sector - AI capital expenditure is projected to reach $659 billion, but concerns over return on investment (ROI) are rising, leading to significant differentiation among the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks [4][14] - The software sector is experiencing a crisis as AI innovations threaten traditional SaaS models, resulting in a sharp decline in software valuations [5][16] - The correlation among the "Magnificent Seven" has sharply decreased, with varying returns; for instance, Google's return is around 66%, while others like Apple and Amazon lag behind [14][16] Group 3: Value Stocks and Old Economy - There is a revival of interest in value stocks, which were previously seen as "value traps," as some are successfully transforming into "value creators" by generating higher cash flows [18][19] - Capital expenditures in traditional sectors like utilities and telecommunications are increasing, driven by the need for infrastructure to support tech growth [17] - The performance of financial assets has reversed, with gold, emerging markets, and value stocks outperforming tech stocks, marking a significant shift in market dynamics [20] Group 4: Diversification and Future Outlook - The era of diversification is emerging, as the sources of growth are expanding beyond large tech stocks, with strong earnings growth across various sectors [22][23] - Analysts have raised earnings forecasts for 2026 unusually early, particularly for emerging markets, indicating a shift in investment opportunities [12][23] - Investors are encouraged to reassess long-standing allocation habits and diversify across regions, sectors, and styles to capitalize on the changing market landscape [23]