债 券 研 春节期间不可错过的事情 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 国内篇 本报告导读： 经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升带来的扰 动。 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性超预期收紧；经济修复大幅加速；债券供给放量。 | | | | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 央行视角下的货币财政协同与存款搬 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that while the economic cycle is still early, some market valuations are too high, predicting high volatility in AI and tech stocks, with funds continuing to flow into "cheap" cyclical assets [1][2]. Economic Data and Market Performance - Economic data remains strong, supporting the performance of cyclical assets, with the US ISM index rising and labor market stabilizing [3]. - Globally, developed market manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in a year, and emerging market manufacturing PMI also increased month-on-month [4]. - Goldman Sachs indicates that the market is underestimating the growth outlook for the US economy, which is projected to grow at 2.5% for the year, suggesting room for upward adjustments in cyclical expectations [5]. Sector Rotation and Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to embrace cyclical assets benefiting from economic recovery while being cautious of overvalued AI and large tech stocks [2]. - Emerging market stocks, the Australian dollar, copper, and capital goods and materials sectors in the US have seen significant gains, while previously leading AI and tech themes have experienced volatility [2]. - The market is shifting from expensive tech stocks to cheaper exposures, particularly in underperforming sectors, leading to "value" outperforming "growth" [6]. AI Sector Dynamics - The AI sector is facing increased volatility, with Goldman Sachs acknowledging the real productivity gains from AI but noting that the market has overvalued these benefits, particularly for companies directly involved in the AI boom [6][9]. - Concerns are rising regarding cash flow consumption by large cloud service providers and potential disruptions to software providers and certain financial/real estate sectors [8]. Currency and Global Market Trends - The US dollar has weakened due to tariff concerns and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with the relative underperformance of US stocks compared to Europe and Japan prompting discussions on diversification and hedging [12]. - Currencies that align with global cyclical views, such as the Australian dollar, South African rand, Chilean peso, and Brazilian real, have become the biggest gainers against the US dollar [13]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests continuing to bet on cyclical assets while selecting those with relatively cheap valuations, as there is still room for upward adjustments in growth expectations [15]. - The combination of ongoing volatility in AI themes and the potential for periodic spillover into index-level volatility supports a diversified equity portfolio and healthy non-US exposure, including emerging markets [16].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement more aggressive monetary easing, driven by high national debt and interest payments, with Trump advocating for lower interest rates [3] - A significant surge in commodity prices is anticipated due to a combination of dollar depreciation, the Kondratiev wave cycle, and increased demand from AI, marking a potential "year of commodities" [4] - The wealth creation narrative is highlighted by Elon Musk's net worth surpassing $800 billion and the acquisition of AI unicorn MANUS by META for billions [7] Group 2 - An unprecedented stock market bull run is predicted, driven by policy, technology, and investor confidence [8] - Non-typical inflation is emerging, with stark contrasts in job markets and salaries between tech sectors and traditional industries [9] - Currency devaluation is expected, with a shift towards physical assets like gold and lithium, impacting cash asset holders [10] Group 3 - The trend of dollar devaluation and de-dollarization is gaining traction, with Trump advocating for a weaker dollar to benefit U.S. manufacturing [13] - The rise of new AI applications is anticipated, with predictions of significant job automation in white-collar sectors within the next 12-18 months [15] - Geopolitical tensions and trade wars are expected to create "black swan" events, impacting market stability [16] Group 4 - A significant portion of the population is projected to not profit from the upcoming bull market due to poor trading strategies and lack of fundamental analysis [17]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the global bull market is not over, but the driving forces have shifted from crowded US tech stocks to emerging markets, commodities, and value stocks [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Funds are moving from over-congested US tech stocks to emerging markets (EM), commodities, and "old economy" value stocks [3] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen from 100 to nearly 120 relative to developed markets since the beginning of 2025, indicating a significant revaluation [7] - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the stock market shows resilience, largely due to strong fundamentals and improved macro and micro drivers [9][8] Group 2: AI and Technology Sector - AI capital expenditure is projected to reach $659 billion, but concerns over return on investment (ROI) are rising, leading to significant differentiation among the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks [4][14] - The software sector is experiencing a crisis as AI innovations threaten traditional SaaS models, resulting in a sharp decline in software valuations [5][16] - The correlation among the "Magnificent Seven" has sharply decreased, with varying returns; for instance, Google's return is around 66%, while others like Apple and Amazon lag behind [14][16] Group 3: Value Stocks and Old Economy - There is a revival of interest in value stocks, which were previously seen as "value traps," as some are successfully transforming into "value creators" by generating higher cash flows [18][19] - Capital expenditures in traditional sectors like utilities and telecommunications are increasing, driven by the need for infrastructure to support tech growth [17] - The performance of financial assets has reversed, with gold, emerging markets, and value stocks outperforming tech stocks, marking a significant shift in market dynamics [20] Group 4: Diversification and Future Outlook - The era of diversification is emerging, as the sources of growth are expanding beyond large tech stocks, with strong earnings growth across various sectors [22][23] - Analysts have raised earnings forecasts for 2026 unusually early, particularly for emerging markets, indicating a shift in investment opportunities [12][23] - Investors are encouraged to reassess long-standing allocation habits and diversify across regions, sectors, and styles to capitalize on the changing market landscape [23]

2026 年 02 月 10 日 AI 产业链产品出口或将延续强势 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（腊月初六到腊月十九），水 泥发运率、磨机运转率处于农历同期历史中高位，石油沥青装置开工率处于农历 同期历史低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年农历同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（腊月 初六到腊月十九），整体工业开工率仍处农历同期历史中高位。化工链中 PX 开 工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽车钢胎开工率处于同期历史 中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，家电销售有所回暖。最近两周(腊月初六到腊月十九)， 螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求处于历史同期低位。乘用车四周滚动销量同比延续 负增，中国轻纺城成交量回升至历史中高位，主要家电销售有所回暖。 商品价格：国内工业品价震荡偏强运行 相关研究报告 《一文看懂日本众议院选举与日债、 日元波动及影响—宏观经济点评》 -2026.2.6 《 ...

2月10日晚间，ST雪发（SZ002485，股价4.81元，市值26亿元，即雪松发展）获悉，广州市中级人民法院（以下简称广州中院）已于当日就公司关联方雪 松控股集团有限公司（以下简称雪松控股）、实际控制人张劲等人涉嫌"集资诈骗、非法吸收公众存款、背信运用受托财产、妨害作证一案"宣判。 图片来源： Wind截图 需要说明的是，张劲未直接持有ST雪发股份，他通过广州雪松文化旅游投资有限公司（以下简称雪松文投）及广州君凯投资有限公司合计持有ST雪发 69.40%股份，但其大部分持股目前处于质押及司法冻结状态。约10天前，ST雪发发布了业绩预告，预计2025年继续亏损。 约3年前宣布实控人张劲"失联" 关于雪松控股及张劲一案，最早可以追溯到2023年。 根据公开报道，2023年5月7日，广州市公安局黄埔区分局发布通告，对雪松控股下属的广东圆方投资有限公司等涉嫌非法吸收公众存款案立案查处。公安 机关已对主要犯罪嫌疑人张某等人采取刑事强制措施；已依法提取相关涉案数据，并已委托专业机构进行独立鉴定和司法审计；已对涉案相关资产予以查 封、扣押、冻结。 （更多信息请参考：《涉嫌非法吸收公众存款！雪松控股下属公司被立案查处》） ...

·中金：相关资源股行情并未结束 ·分析师：近期科技股抛售并不意味着AI投资热潮结束 ·调查显示英国就业市场初现暖意 ·一项受到英国央行货币政策委员会密切关注的调查显示，尽管雇主在1月继续缩减长期岗位的招聘，但 缩减速度已放缓至18个月以来的最低水平。这份由英国招聘与就业联合会（REC）开展的调查还显示， 企业自去年10月以来首次增加了临时工的派遣量。REC的这份报告进一步证明了英国经济在2026年正迎 来转机。 ·凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant指出，日本拟暂停对食品征收销售税，预计将导致通胀率下降约两 个百分点，甚至可能令整体通胀率进入负值区域。即便今年和明年赤字有所扩大，凭借强劲的名义GDP 增长，公共债务占GDP比率仍将进一步快速下降。 ·法国巴黎银行经济学家表示，鉴于日本首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策可能进一步推升通胀，预计日 本央行将以略快于此前的节奏加息。分析师预计，日本央行将在4月加息，随后每隔四到五个月将继续 收紧政策，直到政策利率达到2%。 ·据马来亚银行（Maybank）外汇研究与策略报告，因区域股市普遍上涨带动风险偏好，新加坡元走 强。报告指出："当前环境下，美元偏向下行 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为19.9%，维持利率不变的概率为80.1%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为31.1%，维持利率不变的概率为65.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 3.7%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为51.1%。 01. 宏观要闻 1、央行公开市场净投放380亿元 央行今日开展1130亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平。因今日有750亿元7天期逆回 购到期，实现净投放380亿元。 2、日本众议院选举结果公布 据新华社消息，日本广播协会报道，在8日举行的日本众议院选举中，由自民党和日本维新会组成的执 政联盟获得过半数议席。 这意味着，日本动荡的金融市场如今必须应对由首相高市早苗继续领导政府的局面。在日元、日股和日 债市场，"高市行情"预计将卷土重来。 3、美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为80.1% 中国邮政、顺丰速运、京 东 物 流、德邦快递等多家快递企业在官网陆续发布公告，今年春节期间将全 力保障快件收发需求，积极调配运力、人力资源，服务"不打烊"。不过有些将收取"资源调节费"，时效 性也会稍微变慢。调配临时运输资源产生的合理成本，且所有 ...

格隆汇2月9日｜中金研报称，大宗商品是全球资金多元化的受益资产，当前能源、化工等多品种的估值 与成本或已在偏底部区间，尽管短期波动加大，但由AI算力扩张与能源转型驱动的刚性需求，以及部 分品种的结构性供需缺口并未发生实质性变化，我们认为大宗商品的结构行情可能尚未结束。中金策略 大类资产团队认为凯文·沃什上任后的决策可能受到多重制约，短期内大幅缩表的概率不高，美联储未 必如市场担忧那样彻底转鹰。综上所述，我们认为随着短期情绪释放与交易拥挤度明显下降，相关资源 股行情并未结束，历经短期调整后中期有望重拾升势。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that commodities are benefiting from global capital diversification, with current valuations in energy and chemicals potentially at the lower end of the range, despite increased short-term volatility [1] - The demand driven by AI computational expansion and energy transition, along with structural supply-demand gaps for certain commodities, has not changed significantly, indicating that the structural market for commodities may not be over [1] - The strategy team at CICC believes that Kevin Warsh's decisions may face multiple constraints, making significant balance sheet reduction unlikely in the short term, and the Federal Reserve may not turn as hawkish as the market fears [1] Group 2 - As short-term sentiment releases and trading congestion decreases, the market for related resource stocks is not over, and after a short-term adjustment, there is potential for a mid-term rebound [1]