Core Insights - The retail landscape in Hong Kong is undergoing significant changes, with a high vacancy rate in core commercial areas indicating ongoing challenges for the sector [2][3] - Despite the difficulties, there are signs of potential recovery and adaptation within the market, as evidenced by the rise of new retail formats and the entry of international brands [6][9] Retail Performance - In Q1 2024, the total retail sales value in Hong Kong is projected to be HKD 376.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, highlighting the ongoing struggles of traditional retail [3] - The vacancy rate in the four core shopping districts reached 12.1%, the highest in nearly four and a half years, with over 60% of vacant shops unoccupied for at least six months [3][4] Market Dynamics - The rise of e-commerce, particularly from mainland China, has led to increased competition for traditional retailers, resulting in a shift towards smaller, more flexible retail spaces and short-term leasing options [4][6] - New retail formats, such as capsule toy stores and pop-up shops, are gaining traction due to lower costs and higher returns, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [8] Consumer Behavior - The increase in visitor numbers to Hong Kong, projected to reach 44.5 million in 2024, is expected to support certain retail sectors, particularly those catering to tourists [5] - Research indicates that frequent travelers from Hong Kong continue to spend significantly in local retail and dining, suggesting that local consumption is not being entirely displaced by cross-border shopping [5] Future Outlook - The decline in rental prices is attracting various international brands to establish a presence in Hong Kong, suggesting a potential revitalization of the retail market [6] - The ongoing adjustments in the retail landscape reflect a broader trend towards experiential shopping and a focus on meeting the evolving demands of consumers [9]

Group 1 - The vacancy rate of street shops in Hong Kong's four core shopping areas (Central, Tsim Sha Tsui, Mong Kok, and Causeway Bay) rose to approximately 12.1% in Q1 2025, marking a nearly 4.5-year high [1] - In the first five months, the shop market experienced an increase in the number of registrations (395, up about 6.5% year-on-year) but a decrease in registered amounts (approximately HKD 6.467 billion, down about 26.7% year-on-year) [1] - Short-term rentals are becoming increasingly popular as landlords prefer to lease vacant properties in this manner to maintain property value and foot traffic, leading to a rise in businesses like toy shops and miscellaneous goods stores [1] Group 2 - The traditional retail sector continues to shrink, particularly in the food, hardware, and clothing industries, significantly impacted by high interest rates and consumer spending trends [2] - From Q3 2024 to Q1 2025, 847 shop units became vacant or had new tenants, with a closure rate of 11.4%, the highest since the pandemic recovery [2] - Despite the closures, 786 businesses opened during the same period, resulting in an opening rate of 10.6%, indicating an improvement in market turnover and a quick filling of vacancies in the shop rental market [2]