1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information is provided in the given content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yield being too high is not a risk, while being too low is. In March, the bond market mainly traded on expectations, and the term premium reached a new high. Long - end yields being high is not a risk as the term spread acts as a natural moat. Short - end yields being low is a risk as they have little ability to withstand fluctuations. The "low - probability" risk in the bond market is the short - end yield increase, with the potential trigger being the supply of certificates of deposit. Short - end yields could rise by 10BP in the short - term, and the long - end cannot withstand the short - end increase. In April, there is no need to rush into long - end trading [1][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market's "Low - Probability" Risk - **March Bond Market Expectation Trading**: In March, the bond market mainly traded on expectations, and the term premium reached a new high. After the geopolitical conflict, the domestic imported inflation expectation trading heated up. Before the Two Sessions, there was still the after - effect of the February reserve requirement ratio cut expectation trading, and after the Two Sessions, the bond market gave up expectations for monetary policy. The 10 - year yield recovered after rising, and the 30 - year yield remained high after rising. By the end of the month, the 10 - 1 spread was close to 60BP, and the 30 - 10 spread reached 56BP, fully pricing in the risks in the expectation trading [6]. - **Long - End Yield Analysis**: Long - end yields being high is not a risk. The term spread indicates the continuation of the "bear steepening" pattern. The risk of "bear flattening" is excluded because the debt cycle is in the clearing stage and there is no condition for the monetary policy to tighten first. The term spread is a natural moat for the long - end. However, the 30 - year ultra - long bond has risks such as relative supply pressure after the issuance of special treasury bonds, "tight balance" constraints at the bank duration level, and the risk of changing active bonds with a high borrowing ratio [7]. - **Short - End Yield Analysis**: Short - end yields being low is a risk. The short - end trading is crowded, and the yields are too low. Taking certificates of deposit as an anchor, the spread between them and the capital or policy rate is less than 15BP. Assets within 3 years are in an "asset shortage" state with little coupon protection. The only possible trigger for the short - end yield increase is the supply of certificates of deposit, especially from joint - stock banks. The risk is considered "low - probability" but could cause short - end yields to rise by 10BP, which would also affect the long - end [8][9]. - **April Long - End Trading Suggestion**: In April and the second quarter, there is no need to rush into long - end trading. Wait for the release of inflation and real - estate data. Accounts that seized trading opportunities in February don't need to rush into left - side trading. Accounts that didn't gain capital gains in February can be more left - sided, but it's better to choose 7 - 10 - year bonds with the protection of allocation demand [10].