证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 从价格（结构）的确定性看资产变化 —2026年一季度经济与市场展望 专题研究·宏观 固收 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 目录 股、债构成因子的拆分 01 02 价格指数变化的确定性是什么？ 03 支撑价格变化的因素 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 长期利率的拆解 资料来源：wind，国信证券经济研究所绘制 资料来源：国信证券经济研究所绘制 图3：期限溢价受影响因素多元化 资料来源：wind，国信证券经济研究所绘制 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 图1：长期利率的拆分 ⚫ 长期利率的拆分； 图2：真实利率更多是实际经济运行结果，而非原因 长期利率的构成因子现状：期限溢价回归历史正常区域下限 图5：10Y-7D不同利差水平下的情形 图4：近一年决定长期利率的主要因子是期限溢价 资料来源：wind，国信证券经济研究所绘制 资料来源：国信证券经济研究所绘制 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ⚫ 最近一年有 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在日本首相高市早苗领导的新一届政府于周三宣布提名两位被视为极度鸽派立场的日本央行货币政策委员会 新成员之后，日元汇率(美元与日元之间的汇率走势)亚洲早盘交易经历短暂上涨之后迅速转为回落，日本40年期国债收益率则迅 速飙升至3.6%重要关口，10年期以及20年期日本长期国债收益率也在同步上行。 统计数据显示，40年期与30年期超长期限的日本国债(JGB)收益率在亚盘午后交易中均大幅上升逾10个基点，日元则一度彻底抹 去对于美元的汇率强劲涨幅。 据了解，青山学院大学教授佐藤彩乃与日本中央大学教授浅田东一郎——两位与"再通胀"和MMT财政刺激经济政策密切相关联 的经济学者，被高市早苗政府提名接替即将离任的日本央行货币政策委员会成员野口旭与中川顺子。 来自资管巨头安盛投资管理(AXA Investment Managers)的资深固定收益策略师木村龙太郎表示："浅田与佐藤都因其持续的宽松 货币政策立场以及对积极扩张财政政策的正面态度而广为人知。" 木村表示："这一选择与投资者此前的利率路径评估可谓彻底相矛盾——此前绝大多数投资者认为，任命至少一位优先考虑财政 健全性的鹰派货币政策立场人士将遏制日元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for the Federal Reserve to adjust its balance sheet strategy by shifting from long-term to short-term Treasury securities to reduce duration risk and potentially lower policy interest rates [1][19]. Group 1: Current State of the Fed's Balance Sheet - As of early 2026, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is approximately $6.6 trillion, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels of $4.4 trillion and $0.9 trillion before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) [2]. - The balance sheet structure is deemed "distorted" by some analysts, with reserves nearing $3 trillion, accounting for 12% of bank assets [2][16]. - The weighted average maturity (WAM) of the Fed's Treasury holdings is about 9 years, compared to only 3 years before the GFC, indicating a longer duration risk [2][11]. Group 2: Proposed Strategy for Duration Management - The proposed strategy involves the Fed reinvesting maturing securities into short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) instead of similar long-term assets, which could increase T-bill holdings from $289 billion to approximately $3.8 trillion over five years [23]. - This shift would reduce the Fed's portfolio duration from 9 years to about 4 years, aligning more closely with pre-GFC norms [23][24]. Group 3: Coordination with the Treasury - Successful implementation of this strategy requires coordination with the Treasury to avoid market disruptions. If the Treasury increases long-term debt issuance without Fed support, it could lead to a significant supply-demand imbalance in the long-term bond market [25]. - The ideal scenario would involve the Treasury maintaining long-term issuance levels while increasing T-bill issuance to meet the Fed's needs, stabilizing the market [28]. Group 4: Implications for Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - A shorter duration portfolio may lead to an increase in term premiums, necessitating a reduction in policy interest rates to maintain economic stability [29]. - Research indicates that to offset the effects of a shorter duration portfolio, the federal funds rate may need to be lowered by 25 to 85 basis points [29][36].

Core Insights - Foreign investors have been increasingly purchasing larger shares in U.S. Treasury auctions, alleviating concerns about the U.S. Treasury's safe-haven status being compromised and the potential for large deficits driving away foreign capital [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - In January, foreign and international accounts received approximately 19% of auction allocations, marking the highest level in nearly three years [1]. - This allocation share had previously peaked at nearly 25% in early 2022, before dropping below 10% in November 2024 [1]. - The increase in foreign auction participation is described as "broad-based" by TD Securities analysts [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Behavior - Analysts express skepticism that the narrative of "Sell America" is more of a story than a reality, as foreign institutions have shown a tendency to hold onto their U.S. Treasury positions despite market fluctuations [4]. - Following the announcement of tariffs by former President Trump in April 2025, foreign investors sold $53 billion in Treasuries but subsequently increased their holdings by $354 billion by November [4]. - The rise in foreign auction participation in November and December indicates an increase in term premium, which is the excess return of 10-year Treasuries over shorter-term securities, as a factor attracting investors [4]. Group 3: Investment Choices and Currency Considerations - The lack of alternative investment options may compel investors to set aside their concerns and continue investing in U.S. Treasuries [8]. - A weaker dollar suggests that foreign investors might be opting to hedge against currency risks while still increasing their holdings in dollar-denominated assets [8]. - From a diversification perspective, investors may find limited choices available, reinforcing their commitment to U.S. Treasuries [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the allocation ratio of foreign buyers in U.S. Treasury auctions has been increasing, alleviating concerns about the loss of the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries and the impact of large fiscal deficits on foreign investments [1][4] - According to TD Securities' analysis, in January, the allocation ratio for foreign and international accounts in Treasury auctions reached approximately 19%, marking a three-year high. This ratio had previously peaked at nearly 25% in early 2022 but declined to below 10% by November 2024 [1][4] - The report indicates that the increase in foreign account allocations is broad-based, suggesting that the narrative of a "sell America" trend may be more of a market story than reality [4] Group 2 - Despite a significant sell-off of $53 billion in U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors following tariff announcements in April 2025, they subsequently increased their holdings by $354 billion by November of the same year [4] - The participation of foreign investors in Treasury auctions notably increased in November and December, driven by the expansion of the term premium, which is the additional yield of 10-year Treasuries over shorter-term bonds [4][6] - The upcoming auction of $58 billion in three-year Treasuries and the issuance of 10-year and 30-year bonds may further influence foreign investment behavior, as a lack of alternative assets could compel investors to continue holding U.S. dollar assets [7]

点击注册小程序 核心观点： 地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的 结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属 性。在美国中期选举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显现 出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行 全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职 后的"百日新政"引发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信用风险 重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价 期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长 债定价的新锚点。美债"武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业化与资 源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign buyers have increased their participation in U.S. medium- to long-term Treasury auctions, alleviating market concerns about the loss of safe-haven status and the potential withdrawal of overseas funds due to large fiscal deficits [1][5]. Group 1: Foreign Participation in Treasury Auctions - In January, foreign and international accounts accounted for approximately 19% of allocations in U.S. Treasury auctions, marking the highest level in nearly three years [1][5]. - This participation rate had previously peaked at nearly 25% in early 2022 but fell to below 10% by November 2024 [1][5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Analysts from TD Securities suggest that the narrative of a "sell-off of America" is more of a story than reality, as data indicates foreign investors have been increasing their holdings [3][8]. - After a sell-off of $53 billion in U.S. Treasuries following tariff announcements in April 2025, foreign investors subsequently increased their holdings by $354 billion by November [8]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Investment Decisions - The increase in foreign participation in Treasury auctions during November and December indicates that the widening term premium—additional yield offered by 10-year Treasuries compared to shorter-term bonds—has been a driving factor [8]. - The lack of alternative assets may be compelling investors to set aside concerns temporarily, with a weaker dollar suggesting that foreign investors are continuing to accumulate dollar-denominated assets while hedging against currency risks [10].

2026 年 2 月 10 日 总量研究 "安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利率曲线？ 核心观点：地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的 上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高 通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属性。在美国中期选 举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显 现出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行。全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济 周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职后的"百日新政"引 发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信 用风险重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价。期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应 链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长债定价的新锚点。美债 "武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业 化与资源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能。当前利率曲线的陡峭化，起始于 2025 年 1 月 20 日特 朗普就职这一政治事项，但政治动能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming elections in Japan are expected to increase market expectations for government spending, leading to a weaker yen [1] Group 1 - A decisive electoral victory may strengthen market expectations for proactive fiscal policies in the short term, potentially stimulating short-term yen selling [1] - The medium-term outlook for the yen will depend on the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, as well as how the government's fiscal credibility is reflected in term premiums [1]

Rochester表示，在最近一次东京之行中，寿险公司、资产管理公司和银行几乎一致认为，10年期日本国 债收益率升至2.5%附近是一个良好的买入机会。目前收益率徘徊在2.25%左右。 据瑞穗银行策略师称，投资者可能会在本周末的提前大选后重返期限较长的日本国债市场，而大型资产 管理机构认为，10年期日本国债收益率达到2.5%可能是一个买入的触发点。 瑞穗银行驻伦敦宏观策略主管Jordan Rochester表示："随着选举不确定性的消除，我们看到的超长期买 方罢工行情可能很快就会结束。"他还补充说，一些日本最大的投资者正在等待收益率小幅走高。 在首相高市早苗宣布提前举行大选前夕，日本长期国债收益率上升，10年期日本国债收益率上月攀升至 2.38%，创1999年以来新高。如果高市早苗能够通过选举巩固其支持率，这将为她增加支出以刺激经济 铺平道路。 一些日本国内投资者由于担心财政担忧加剧可能推高收益率，同时受到市场波动加剧的困扰，因此一直 回避长期债券市场。人寿保险公司和养老基金历来是长期和超长期日本国债的最大买家，它们的缺席削 弱了需求锚点，尽管外国投资者在一定程度上填补了这一空白。 下周四将是检验超长期日本国债 ...