随着42.8万亿日元刺激方案公布在即，日本市场正经历严峻考验。野村证券警告，日本市场正面临类似2022年英国"特拉斯冲击"的财政风险，而 市场尚未充分定价超长期国债的供需恶化。 据华尔街见闻文章，日本政府已进入编制大规模经济刺激方案的最后阶段，方案中政府支出规模约为21.3万亿日元，若计入私营部门投资，总规 模将高达42.8万亿日元。这一规模远超前任推出的13.9万亿日元方案，引发市场对财政纪律的深切担忧。日本国债市场出现猛烈抛售，30年期国债 收益率创下历史新高，10年期和5年期国债收益率双双刷新2008年以来最高水平。 （日本10年期债券收益率本周以来加速上涨） 11月20日，据追风交易台消息，野村证券在最新研报中称，只要对日本版"特拉斯冲击"的担忧持续存在，外国投资者将继续回避日本市场。日元 全面走弱配合超长期债券疲软，是投资者抛售日本债券的明确信号。美元兑日元汇率时隔10个月重回157关口，逼近随时可能触发官方干预的危险 区域。 该行还指出，若超长期债券供需进一步恶化，收益率曲线陡峭化仍有较大空间。财政忧虑推动的收益率曲线陡峭化尚未完全反映4-5月期间超长债 供需恶化的程度。目前30年期国债的供需溢价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of "stocks and bonds being homologous" is increasing, and they are likely to be homologous to the nominal growth rate, which is of greater macro - significance to the country than the real growth rate [34] - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamental aspects, the probability of stocks and bonds being homologous increases [34] - The overall long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors: growth or prices [32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs "Stock - Bond Disconnection" - After "9.24" in 2024, both stocks and bonds were bullish under the stimulus of loose monetary policy. In 2025, there was a "seesaw" form where stocks were strong and bonds were weak, with the median return of a certain scale of interest - rate bond public funds around 0.2%. The stock index rose nearly 800 points while the interest rate only increased by 20 points [7][8] - The reason for "stock - bond disconnection" is that they have their own driving main lines. In 2025, the driving factors of stocks and bonds were mostly different, but there was a common linkage effect during the anti - involution market from June to August [9][11] - The main line of the bond market in 2025 was the revision and adjustment of expectations, including the revision of policy expectations and economic expectations [12][17] "Increasing Probability of Stock - Bond Homology" - The bull market of stocks requires both PE and EPS. Currently, it seems to enter a period where EPS needs to take over. PE - driven stock markets tend to weaken the stock - bond seesaw effect, while EPS - driven ones strengthen it. When the stock market focuses on EPS, the probability of stock - bond homology increases [22] - The long - term interest rate's rise and fall in the past year was mainly determined by the term premium. Currently, the term premium is at a reasonable level, and the overall long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors such as growth or prices [32] - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamental aspects, the probability of stocks and bonds being homologous increases [34] "What is the Focus of Homology?" - In terms of the 2035 goals, the real growth has limited elasticity, while prices still have elasticity. Industry profit changes are closely related to prices, which is crucial for the stock market. Whether to get out of deflation is crucial for the bond market [38] - Since 2016, there has been significant differentiation in the internal price trends. Non - food (or core) prices are more demand - driven, while food prices are more supply - driven. Monetary policy and market interest rates pay more attention to demand - dominated prices, especially non - food prices [41][43][47] - Under neutral assumptions, there is a possibility of getting out of deflation. The risk lies in whether the month - on - month data can reach the neutral level in recent years. The trend is determined, and it is unlikely to return to the 2024 pattern [50][51] - "Anti - involution" is an important policy arrangement. In the short - term, the implementation path is under observation, with the goal of improving the profit margins of key industries. In the long - term, the path is clear, aiming to establish a unified national market through mergers, reorganizations, and reforms [60][61] - In the short - term, administrative production control may be used to improve industry profit margins. Attention should be paid to whether there will be production control policies for anti - involution key industries, which account for over 30% of China's PPI [69][70]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of risk premium, explaining why investments in stocks and funds can yield significantly higher returns compared to bank wealth management products, which typically offer lower returns due to their lower risk profile [3][11]. Group 1: Risk-Free Investments - The safest asset in the financial world is typically short-term government bonds, which are backed by national credit, providing a "floor price" for all yields [4]. - An assumed interest rate for a 30-day short-term government bond is around 4%, which serves as the baseline return for virtually risk-free investments [5]. Group 2: Types of Risk Premium - **Term Premium**: Investors require higher interest rates for locking their money in longer-term bonds due to the uncertainty associated with time, leading to a term premium. For example, a 5-year bond might require a 5% yield, while a 10-year bond might require a 6% yield, reflecting a 2% term premium for the additional time risk [7]. - **Credit Premium**: When comparing a 10-year government bond yielding 6% to corporate bonds from stable companies like Moutai or Tencent, investors demand a higher yield for the additional credit risk associated with corporate bonds. This additional yield is termed the credit premium, which might be around 1% higher than government bonds [10]. Group 3: Relationship Between Risk and Return - The article emphasizes that as risk increases, the required compensation (risk premium) also increases. For instance, junk bonds may require yields of 12%, while stocks might necessitate expected returns of 10%-13% due to their higher risk profile [12][19]. - The relationship between risk and return is illustrated as a positive correlation, where higher potential returns are associated with higher risks [18]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Insights - Understanding risk premium helps investors make rational decisions, avoiding scams that promise high returns with low risk. For example, a project claiming a guaranteed 30% return is likely fraudulent, as such returns correspond to high-risk investments [20]. - The article suggests that a balanced investment strategy should include both low-risk bonds for stable returns and higher-risk stocks for potential higher risk premiums, allowing investors to find their optimal risk-return balance [20][21].

Group 1: US Treasury and Labor Market - The US Treasury's financing strategy is expected to become more flexible and proactive, considering market structure factors, which may not lead to a significant rise in yields from refinancing announcements [1] - The US labor market showed weakness with over 150,000 layoffs in October, the largest since 2003, leading to market overreactions regarding labor market signals [2] - Analysts suggest that if expectations for significant Fed rate cuts persist, the 10-year US Treasury yield could drop to 3.8%-3.9% in the next three to six months [2] Group 2: UK and Eurozone Monetary Policy - Nomura Securities has adjusted its forecast for the Bank of England's rate cuts, now expecting the current cycle to end in April next year, with a potential cut in December [2] - Societe Generale's analysts believe that for German 10-year bond yields to exceed 3%, the European Central Bank would need to raise rates further and accumulate term premiums [3] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Barclays raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea in 2026 from 1.7% to 2.1%, attributing this to a recovery in the semiconductor industry and increased foreign investment [3] - The current account surplus forecast for South Korea was also increased from $8.4 billion to $11 billion for 2026 [3]

Group 1 - The overnight rise in U.S. Treasury yields was driven by strong economic data, with all maturities experiencing increases [2] - The latest non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 190,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, above the expected 3.8% [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy path remains unclear, with Powell emphasizing that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, which could lead to further rebounds in Treasury yields if the Fed slows its rate-cutting pace [2] Group 2 - Despite strong economic data, inflation pressures continue to be a focal point for the market, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index rising by 3% year-on-year in September and 0.3% month-on-month, driven by a 4.1% increase in energy prices and rapid food price increases [3] - The U.S. Treasury has alleviated long-term Treasury supply pressures through increased short-term bond issuance and adjustments in financing strategies, contributing to a decline in "term premium" [3] Group 3 - Columbia Threadneedle bond manager Ed Al-Hussainy noted that the core issue is not whether to buy U.S. Treasuries, but rather if there are better alternatives available, highlighting the challenges faced by those who shorted Treasuries earlier in the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite concerns over budget deficits and the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the U.S. government debt market has solidified its position as the most trusted sovereign debt asset globally, with significant inflows from investors driving a rebound in U.S. Treasury bonds in the second half of the year [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at $30 trillion, has seen investment returns of approximately 6% this year, heading towards its best performance since 2020 [2]. - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has surged despite previous bearish sentiments, attributed to controlled inflation under high interest rates and a shift towards short-term bonds by the Treasury [5][14]. - The "cleanest dirty shirt" analogy is used to describe the U.S. as a relatively better investment choice compared to other developed nations facing similar fiscal challenges [5][20]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have contributed to lower borrowing costs and increased returns on U.S. debt, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to around 4% [6][25]. - Concerns about a potential recession due to trade wars have led to a flight to safety, with investors flocking to U.S. Treasuries [7][8]. - The U.S. Treasury's increased revenue from tariffs and a focus on reducing budget deficits have also played a role in the attractiveness of U.S. debt [5][19]. Group 3: Global Comparisons - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased significantly compared to other G7 countries, where long-term borrowing costs have risen due to fiscal concerns [21][25]. - The U.S. remains the largest and most liquid fixed-income market globally, making it a preferred choice for foreign investors despite ongoing economic uncertainties [5][20][28]. - The overall environment in the U.S. market, while chaotic, still presents competitive opportunities for investors compared to other industrialized economies [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but Chairman Powell's comments indicate a hawkish stance, suggesting that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed. This reflects a growing internal consensus within the Fed to pause rate cuts [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed has the potential for further easing, but the pace of rate cuts may slow down, and overly optimistic expectations should be avoided [1]. - The current round of rate cuts may have a weaker stimulative effect compared to previous cycles, primarily due to a diminished refinancing effect [1]. - The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) in December, which is viewed as a technical decision rather than a significant policy shift [1]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Projections - Under normal circumstances, the Fed has room for three more rate cuts, which would correspond to long-term interest rates of 3.8-4.0% [1]. - The current difference between actual rates and natural rates is 0.8%, and three additional cuts of 25 basis points could align financing costs with investment returns, leading to a nominal neutral rate of 3.5% [1]. - Assuming a term premium of 30-50 basis points, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would be projected at 3.8-4.0% [1]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - The short-term path for rate cuts will depend on factors such as the resolution of government shutdowns and the release of new employment data, as well as inflation trends [1]. - The independence of the new Federal Reserve Chair and the Fed's autonomy will be significant variables affecting the rate cut trajectory in 2026, potentially increasing policy uncertainty [1].

Core Insights - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is pushing the $2 trillion Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) market into unprecedented territory, as the inability to release October's inflation data directly impacts TIPS and inflation swap markets [1][2] - The reliance of TIPS on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data means that the absence of this data could lead to significant market disruptions, with potential activation of a "backup plan" for calculating inflation adjustments [2][3] Group 1: Market Impact - The inability to publish October's CPI data could trigger the use of an estimated CPI value based on the last 12 months' changes, which would not be retroactively adjusted even if actual data is released later [2][3] - Concerns over data quality are already affecting investor demand for TIPS, as investors doubt their ability to hedge against real inflation effectively [5][6] - Despite the uncertainty, the market remains relatively calm, with some analysts attributing the weak performance of TIPS to broader factors such as falling oil prices [7][8] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The current situation is compared to the "debt ceiling crisis," indicating a critical moment for market participants to monitor [1][3] - Investors are currently not in a state of panic, as the outflow of funds from TIPS-related ETFs has not significantly impacted the overall size of these funds [7] - Experts suggest that as long as price data remains free from political manipulation, the overall market dynamics may not change drastically [8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data is critical, as a higher-than-expected reading could disrupt the prevailing market consensus on interest rate cuts and negatively impact the recent strong rebound in U.S. stock and bond markets since October [1][2][10]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time in six months, reaching a low of 3.9%, indicating a significant rebound in Treasury prices despite the government shutdown delaying key economic data [1]. - The overall return of U.S. Treasuries in October is approximately 1.3%, potentially marking the best monthly performance since February, driven by safe-haven buying and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [5]. - If the September CPI data exceeds expectations, it could lead to a sharp rise in Treasury yields, negatively affecting global stock and bond markets [3][10]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations and Market Reactions - Economists predict that the overall CPI for September will show a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3%, both indicating a year-over-year growth of 3.1%, the highest since May 2024 [8]. - There is a prevailing concern that strong inflation data could undermine the market's confidence in further rate cuts, as indicated by various market strategists [10][11]. - The market is currently pricing in a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but a significant rise in inflation could jeopardize these expectations [9]. Group 3: Impact on Equity Markets - The strong performance of major tech companies and the AI sector has driven a historic investment surge in U.S. equities, with indices like the S&P 500 and MSCI Global Index reaching new highs [4]. - The 10-year Treasury yield serves as a critical component in equity valuation models, and a sustained decline below 4% could support a continued bull market in stocks, particularly in technology [3][4]. - If inflation remains stubbornly high, it could lead to a reassessment of risk asset valuations, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, which are currently at historical highs [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the September CPI, is critical as it may disrupt the prevailing market consensus on interest rate cuts, especially if the data shows unexpected increases in inflation [1][2][5]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market has seen a strong rally in October, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4% for the first time in six months, reaching a low of 3.9%, indicating a significant rebound in Treasury prices [1][3]. - The overall return of U.S. Treasuries in October is approximately 1.3%, potentially marking the best monthly performance since February, driven by safe-haven buying and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][10]. - If the September CPI data exceeds market expectations, it could lead to a sharp increase in Treasury yields, negatively impacting both the stock and bond markets [3][10]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations and Market Reactions - Economists predict that the overall CPI will show a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3%, leading to a year-over-year growth of 3.1%, the highest since May 2024 [8][9]. - There is a prevailing concern that higher-than-expected inflation data could undermine the market's confidence in future rate cuts, creating significant downward risks for recent gains in the stock and bond markets [2][14]. - Market participants are increasingly anxious about the quality of U.S. economic data, which could lead to skepticism regarding the reliability of inflation figures released during the government shutdown [10][14]. Group 3: Impact on Equity Markets - The 10-year Treasury yield serves as a critical benchmark for asset pricing, and a rise in yields due to higher inflation could lead to a significant downturn in global equity markets [3][4]. - The ongoing AI investment boom, driven by major tech companies, has contributed to the S&P 500 and MSCI global indices reaching new highs, but elevated Treasury yields could pressure valuations of risk assets, including tech stocks [4][5]. - If the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4% and continues to decline, it could support a bullish trend in global equity markets, particularly benefiting technology stocks closely tied to AI [3][4].