Core Viewpoint - The recent downturn in the bond market has led to a significant decline in the net value of many bond funds, highlighting the risks associated with bond investments despite their classification as fixed-income assets [3]. Group 1: Types of Bonds - Bonds can be categorized into interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and convertible bonds based on the issuer [3]. - Interest rate bonds, issued by government entities, have lower default risk and primarily generate income through interest payments [3]. - Credit bonds, issued by non-government entities, carry higher risk due to their dependence on both market interest rates and the issuer's creditworthiness [3]. - Convertible bonds can be converted into stocks, combining characteristics of both debt and equity [3]. Group 2: Identifying Bond Funds - Investors can determine the composition of their bond funds by reviewing the fund's name, contract, prospectus, and periodic reports [4]. - Not all bond funds exclusively invest in bonds; some may include stocks, convertible bonds, and other equity-like assets, as long as at least 80% of the assets are in bonds [7]. - To identify pure bond funds, investors should focus on the investment scope, product name, and performance benchmarks [9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For those interested in "fixed income plus" products, it is essential to understand the additional strategies and investment scopes beyond bonds [11]. - Common strategies include combining fixed income with stocks, convertible bonds, or derivatives, each with varying risk and return profiles [11][12]. Group 4: Duration and Risk Assessment - Duration is a key metric for assessing bond risk and sensitivity to interest rate changes; shorter durations indicate lower risk [14]. - Investors can evaluate the duration of bond funds through periodic reports that disclose the duration of major holdings [15]. Group 5: Market Risks - Common risks in the bond market include liquidity risk and credit risk, which can significantly impact fund performance [17]. - Liquidity risk arises when investors struggle to sell bonds at reasonable prices, especially during market volatility [17]. - Credit risk pertains to the likelihood of default, with higher-rated bonds generally being more reliable [21]. Group 6: Evaluating Credit Risk - Investors can assess the credit risk of bond funds by analyzing the credit ratings of the bonds held within the fund [21][23]. - A higher proportion of lower-rated bonds indicates a greater credit risk exposure for the fund [23].

12月4日，央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年12月5日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元买断式逆回 购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管 | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动 | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中心 | 网上调查 | 意见征集 | 金融知 | | 首页 | 2025年12月4日 星期四 逆回购业务公告 | 我的位置:首页 | 货币政策司 | | > 货币政策工具 > 公开市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, gold and silver are consolidating at high levels. For London gold, the support level is around $3600, with strong support in the $3500 area, and the resistance level has moved up to $3700. For London silver, the short - term support is around $40.5, with strong support in the $39.5 - 40 area, and the upper target has moved up to the $44 - 45 area. The operation strategy is to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be reduced on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market fluctuated at high levels, with silver outperforming gold. The US inflation data met expectations, and the weekly initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, indicating cooling pressure in the job market. The contrast in monetary policies between Europe and the US pushed the US dollar index lower, which was beneficial for dollar - denominated precious metals. The high spot lease rate of silver reflected a tight supply in the silver spot market. Since the end of August, the strength of precious metals has been mainly driven by the increasing expectation of Fed easing and the significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields. As of the end, COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3673.4 per ounce, down 0.23%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $42.065 per ounce, up 1.12%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 830.78 yuan per gram, down 0.31%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9798 yuan per kilogram, up 0.28%. The US CPI inflation in August basically met expectations, with the core CPI up 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, and CPI up 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 263,000, a nearly four - year high. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, and President Lagarde's hawkish remarks weakened the expectation of ECB rate cuts [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has slightly rebounded. Traders have priced in three rate cuts within the year, but the expectation of a 50 - basis - point cut in September has cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 93.9%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 6.1%. For October, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 7.6%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 86.8%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 5.6%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 0.5%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 13.1%, a 75 - basis - point cut is 81.2%, and a 100 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased slightly by 2.01 tons to 977.95 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15,069.6 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12 tons to 1240.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.3 tons to 1248.3 tons as of the week ending September 5 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Attention should be paid to the preliminary value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index tonight. This week marks the quiet period for Fed officials ahead of the September 18 Fed interest rate decision [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main contract was at 830.78 yuan per gram, down 0.32%; SGX gold TD was at 826.09 yuan per gram, down 0.44%; CME gold main contract was at $3673.4 per ounce, down 0.19%. SHFE silver main contract was at 9798 yuan per kilogram, up 0.02%; SGX silver TD was at 9772 yuan per kilogram, down 0.12%; CME silver main contract was at $42.065 per ounce, up 1%. The SHFE - TD gold spread was 4.69 yuan per gram, up 26.76%; the SHFE - TD silver spread was 26 yuan per kilogram, down 1300%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 87.3268, down 1.17% [6]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 50,151 kilograms, up 9.14%; CME gold inventory was 1210.3089 tons, unchanged. SHFE gold position was 114,423 lots, down 4.19%; SPDR gold position was 977.95 tons, down 0.21%. SHFE silver inventory was 1240.187 tons, down 0.96%; CME silver inventory was 16,314.2027 tons, up 0.26%; SGX silver inventory was 1248.255 tons, down 2.75%. SHFE silver position was 203,343 lots, down 4.32%; SLV silver position was 15,069.602597 tons, down 0.45% [15][17]. 3.5 Other Market Data - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview**: The US dollar index was at 97.5392, down 0.29%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.1152, down 0.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 46,108 points, up 1.36%. WTI crude oil spot was at $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10,057 per ton, up 0.45%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.01%, down 0.74%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was at 1.67%, down 1.18%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was at 0.49%, down 2% [22].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The copper price's rise and fall on Wednesday were closely related to the US economy. The unusual simultaneous rise of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil at night, along with a significant decline in US stocks, and a sharp increase in long - term bond yields in Europe and the US, led to an over - rise. The copper price fell after the opening on Wednesday. Considering the relatively tight supply and the US economic pressure stimulating the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the copper price may remain strong in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.61%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.1% [3]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Liduo Factors**: The US reaching a tariff - policy agreement with other countries, an increase in interest - rate cut expectations leading to a decline in the US dollar index and boosting non - ferrous metal valuations, and a rise in the lower support level [5][7]. - **Lidkong Factors**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by the US copper tariff - policy adjustment [6][7]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,770 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,770 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan (- 0.42%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,680 yuan/ton, with no change; the LME copper 3M is 9,891.5 US dollars/ton, down 82.5 US dollars (- 0.83%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.14, down 0.02 (- 0.25%) [6][8]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaomao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,190 yuan/ton, 80,125 yuan/ton, 80,000 yuan/ton, and 80,230 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline. The spot premiums also decreased [9]. Copper Refined - Scrap Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,585.74 yuan/ton, down 177.24 yuan (- 10.05%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,499.9 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan (- 0.26%); the price advantage (tax - included) is 85.84 yuan/ton, down 173.34 yuan (- 66.88%). Similar declines are seen in the non - tax - included data [13]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 19,829 tons, up 358 tons (1.84%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 5,322 tons, down 100 tons (- 1.84%) [15]. - **Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 158,375 tons, down 200 tons (- 0.13%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 302,744 tons, up 28,977 tons (10.58%) [17][18]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 47.85 yuan/ton, up 5.33 yuan (- 10.02%); the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 US dollars/ton, with no change [19].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: Supportive policies are gradually taking effect. Policies to boost service consumption in September are in focus, and real - estate policies are advancing. However, the impact on the overall market may be limited. The improvement in economic sentiment in July was marginal, and industrial profit repair will take time [2]. - **Overseas Economy**: The US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, indicating a "soft landing." The low JOLTS job openings in July have increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to employment and inflation data this week. The long - term government bond yields in the UK, Germany, and France have reached new highs, and the potential "credit crisis" in the global market should be monitored [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The key issue of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is the rhythm control. The spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium level, and it is less likely to return to the "6 era" in the short term [4]. - **Stock Index**: The external pressure on the A - share market has weakened. With the support of domestic policies and loose liquidity, the downside space of the stock index is expected to be limited [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market's bottom may be further consolidated, but caution is needed regarding the upward space [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term prices are strong, and investors can maintain a strategy of buying on dips [12]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US [14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and casting aluminum alloy prices may be supported [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom in the short term, and an internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices have corrected recently. The medium - term trend depends on demand recovery, and the impact of Indonesia's riots is limited [21][22]. - **Tin**: Tin prices may rise slightly in the short term due to tight supply [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak - oscillating phase, and the key is to observe the downstream's actual purchasing demand [24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and polysilicon is in a wide - range oscillating pattern [27]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with sufficient support at the bottom [28]. - **Black Metals**: The fundamentals of steel products remain weak, and the price trend is bearish. Iron ore prices are supported after the resumption of steel mills, and the coke and coking coal markets are looking for support downward [32][33][34]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are under pressure due to the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production. The LPG market is affected by overseas factors, and the PTA - PX market is weakening with the overall commodity sentiment and oil prices. Other energy - chemical products also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [38][40][42][44] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US JOLTS job openings data is weak, and the Fed's officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The global bond market is experiencing a sell - off, and the eurozone's PMI has been slightly revised down [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed higher in the previous trading day. The US job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low, increasing the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index declined with shrinking volume yesterday. The weak JOLTS data in the US has strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, reducing the external pressure on the A - share market [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market closed higher yesterday. The decline in the stock market has led to an increase in the bond market's gains at the end of the session [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) declined with the drop in the spot price. It is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [7][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market continued to rise on Wednesday. The low JOLTS data in the US has increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The market is focusing on economic data and events this week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish [9][10][11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose and then fell on Wednesday, mainly due to the US economic situation. It may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The price may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. The supply and demand situation is affected by production capacity and seasonal factors [16]. - **Alumina**: The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the price is under pressure. The impact of environmental protection restrictions is short - term [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the cancellation of tax - return policies [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price opened low and lacked upward momentum. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is stable. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [19][20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel corrected on the day. The market is affected by factors such as the Indonesian benchmark price and the EU's stainless - steel tariff policy [20][21][22]. - **Tin**: The tin price has been rising recently due to tight supply. The production has decreased due to maintenance and reduced imports of tin concentrates [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined on Wednesday. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, and the market is in a weak - oscillating phase [24]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price is oscillating, and the polysilicon futures price is in a wide - range oscillating pattern. Their prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and seasonal factors [25][26][27]. - **Lead**: The lead price opened low and closed high, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is weak, and the demand is in a "not - prosperous in the peak season" situation [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have reached new lows recently. The supply exceeds the demand, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. The market is bearish [30][31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price has rebounded, and the term structure is in a positive - spread arbitrage. The resumption of steel mills after the parade has supported the price, but the upside space is limited [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke prices are looking for support downward. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow, and the coking coal inventory structure has deteriorated [34]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply of silicon iron and silicon manganese is loose, and the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The profit has declined, and there is a possibility of production reduction [36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped significantly due to the possible production increase by OPEC+. The uncertainty of OPEC+'s production decision will be an important factor affecting the price next week [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuates with the crude oil price. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand has little change. The market is affected by overseas factors [42]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices of PX and PTA have weakened with the overall commodity sentiment and the decline in the crude oil price. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the profit is under pressure [44][45][46]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at a low level. The supply and demand are in a state of change, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly. The bottle - chip demand is not good [48][49]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is mainly affected by the high - volume shipments from Iran and the port inventory pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and short put options [51][52]. - **PP**: The supply of polypropylene is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. The future trend depends on whether the downstream demand can maintain a high growth rate [54][55]. - **PE**: The polyethylene market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate [56][57][58]. - **PVC**: The PVC price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [59][60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have stopped falling. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the supply of styrene will change in different periods. Short - term short - selling is not recommended [61][62][64]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is waiting for the guidance of the OPEC meeting. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable. The price is under pressure from the spot market [65]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is stable, but the demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortage. It is mainly following the cost fluctuation in the short term [67][68]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The rubber market is in a multi - empty stalemate. The price is affected by factors such as the crude oil price, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic data. It is expected to oscillate widely [69][70][71]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is in a weak supply - demand situation. The market is waiting for the Indian tender news. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [72][73]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The soda ash inventory has decreased slightly. The market situation is relatively weak [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices' rise and fall on Wednesday were closely related to the US economy. The unusual simultaneous rise of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil at night, along with a significant drop in US stocks and a sharp increase in European and American long - term bond yields, led to an over - rise, and the price fell during the daytime. Considering tight supply and the US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices may remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.39%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.3% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main - contract futures at around 78,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Agreement on tariff policies, increased interest - rate cut expectations leading to a lower US dollar index and higher non - ferrous metal valuations, and a rising lower support level [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Uncertain tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 0.56% to 80,110 yuan/ton; the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract was at 80,010 yuan/ton with no change; the LME Copper 3M was at 9,974 dollars/ton, down 0.39% [4]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous were 80,520 yuan/ton, 80,435 yuan/ton, 80,280 yuan/ton, and 80,580 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.45%, 0.41%, 0.39%, and 0.44% [7]. Copper Scrap and Refined Copper Spread - The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,762.98 yuan/ton, down 4.81%; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,503.8 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [11]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 19,471 tons, down 0.15%; the total International Copper warehouse receipts are 5,422 tons, down 3.13% [14]. - **Inventory**: The LME copper inventory is 158,575 tons, down 0.13%; the COMEX copper inventory is 284,400 tons, up 4.52% [16][17]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 53.18 yuan/ton, down 116.83%; the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 dollars/ton, down 1.62% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the metal industry [1] Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continues to rise, with external gold reaching new highs. The market focus is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, personnel adjustments, and bond market risks. The medium - to long - term trend is bullish, and the short - term pattern is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. COMEX gold 2512 closed at $3599.5 per ounce, up 1.51%, hitting a record high; SHFE gold 2510 closed at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%. The US August ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs were lower than expected, which was positive for precious metal prices [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has slightly increased. According to CME data, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in September is 9.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 90.5%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 12.88 tons to 990.56 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 56.48 tons to 15366.48 tons [3] This Week's Focus - This week, there are many important data releases, including the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday, the "small non - farm" ADP employment data on Thursday, the JOLTS job openings on Wednesday, and the services PMI on Thursday. There are also several Fed officials' speeches and the release of the Fed's Beige Book [4] Nanhua's View - The medium - to long - term trend is bullish, and the short - term London gold and silver are in a strong pattern. London gold can be expected to reach $3700, and London silver's next target is the 44 - 45 area. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [5] Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - Presents the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver futures, as well as related spreads and ratios [6] Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest data, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as the holdings of gold and silver ETFs [16][17] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Lists the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, stock indices, crude oil, copper, and US bond yields [23]

Core Viewpoint - The overall risk level in the market is showing a positive trend, transitioning from stability to strength, with the risk scoring of the CSI 300 index significantly increasing from 49.80 to 59.65 [2] Market Valuation - The valuation of the CSI 300 index has risen from 55.08 to 59.68, indicating a continuous upward movement in the overall market valuation [2] - Among 28 first-level industries, sectors such as steel, electronics, pharmaceuticals, real estate, and defense have valuations above the historical 60th percentile, while only agriculture has a valuation below the historical 10th percentile [2] Market Expectations - The market expectation score has increased from 56.00 to 60.00, reaching a six-month high, driven by positive fiscal revenue growth in July, although the budget completion rate remains slow [2] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has improved significantly, with the score rising from 41.41 to 59.44, indicating a shift from cautious trading to a more neutral and positive state [3] - The scores for margin trading and public fund issuance have also increased, suggesting a recovery of retail funds into the equity market [3] Economic Data - July economic data shows a mixed picture, with industrial value-added growth at 5.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and significant declines in fixed asset investment and real estate [8][10] - The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.2%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [8] Financial Indicators - The M2 money supply growth rate increased to 8.80%, while M1 growth rose to 5.60%, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions [10] - New social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.0%, showing a slight increase from June [10] Structural Adjustments - The report highlights the need for diversification in investment strategies to mitigate structural volatility risks, as market recovery trends are accompanied by accelerated rotation among sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The key change in asset allocation for investors in 2023 compared to 2024 is an increase in risk appetite, driven by a strong performance in equity markets and upward pressure on nominal interest rates due to rising commodity prices [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since early April 2025, equity assets have strengthened, leading to a diversion of funds from bond funds [1] - The rise in equity markets indicates a marginal improvement in macroeconomic conditions, while collective price increases in commodities have contributed to upward pressure on nominal interest rates [1] - The rally in cyclical and energy stocks has placed significant pressure on the bond market [1] Group 2: Bond Market Outlook - The central bank maintains a relatively loose monetary market environment, suggesting that interest rate volatility risks are manageable and bond market risks are limited [1] - Three core factors driving the bond market remain unchanged: 1. Price increases in upstream industrial products will not quickly transmit to downstream sectors 2. The real estate sector is still bottoming out, and a structural asset shortage persists 3. The monetary market environment remains accommodative, which is favorable for the bond market [1] - Recent economic data shows signs of recovery, with expectations that upstream industrial prices will eventually lead to a broad price index increase, which is already reflected in the recent stock and bond markets [1] Group 3: Fixed Income Investment Strategy - For the second half of the year, long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are expected to remain core assets in the bond market, with a low probability of unilateral interest rate increases [2] - When approaching the upper limit of the interest rate range, it may be advisable to extend duration and invest in long-term bonds [2] - In the credit bond sector, the current 4-5 year high-grade credit spread is at a historically low level, suggesting a strategy of shortening duration and selectively investing in lower-rated bonds [2] - Convertible bonds in sectors such as photovoltaic, solid-state batteries, and banks are recommended, as these sectors benefit from multiple favorable factors and the valuations of these convertible bonds are closely correlated with the performance of their underlying stocks [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impending maturity of a large volume of U.S. Treasury bonds and questions whether the "Great Escape from America 2.0" will continue [1] - It highlights the re-evaluation of gold's safe-haven properties and the potential ongoing risks in the bond market that may drive this trend [1] - The article identifies Japanese bonds as the "eye of the storm" globally, raising questions about the profit potential for short positions in U.S. and Japanese assets [1] Group 2 - A detailed analysis of the transmission chain between Japanese bonds and U.S. dollar assets is provided, suggesting strategies for stock, bond, currency, and precious metal operations [1] - The article notes the opening of a volatility trading window, indicating opportunities to capture market pulse movements [1]