Group 1: Market Overview - The global risk appetite has decreased, with the VIX index and MOVE 5-day moving average rising significantly, leading to a synchronized decline in both stock and commodity markets [2] - Major global stock indices have generally retreated, with the technology sector experiencing notable declines, while gold, silver, copper, and oil also recorded drops [2][3] - The USD index has surpassed 100, and the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, approaching the 160 mark against the dollar [2][5] Group 2: Equity Market Performance - The MSCI global index fell by 2.5%, with developed markets showing a pattern where declines in frontier markets were less severe than in developed and emerging markets [3] - In the U.S., major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dropped by 1.9%, while the Nasdaq fell by 2.7%, indicating increased scrutiny on the earnings quality of major tech firms [3] - Emerging markets saw significant declines in A-shares, with small-cap and tech boards dropping over 5.1%, while the Russian RTS index rose sharply by 9.1% [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting upward and the 10Y-2Y spread widening [4] - In contrast, U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bull steepening" pattern, with the yield curve moving downward, influenced by dovish comments from the New York Fed [4] - The Japanese government is expected to issue additional bonds to finance a fiscal stimulus plan, which may lead to increased long-term bond yields [4] Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity indices such as South China and CRB fell by 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, with only three out of thirteen major commodity futures recording price increases [5] - The dollar index rose by 0.9%, while the yen depreciated by 1.2%, which may benefit Japanese exporters but also heighten inflationary pressures [5] - The Bank of Japan faces increased pressure to raise interest rates due to the combination of yen depreciation and inflation [5] Group 5: Fixed Income Issuance and Trading - Net financing in the bond market increased, with a total issuance of 3,846.4 billion yuan against 2,555.6 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net increase of 1,290.8 billion yuan [9] - Secondary market trading volume decreased, with total transactions amounting to 7,783.28 billion yuan, down from 8,032.22 billion yuan the previous week [10] - The yield on 3-year AAA medium-term notes fell by 2.33 basis points to 1.86%, indicating a downward trend in short-term yields [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating trend. Considering the weak fundamental situation, a slightly bullish stance is recommended for unilateral trading, with the suggestion to lightly position long on T contracts on dips. In terms of arbitrage, it is advised to stay on the sidelines for the short - term after closing the short position on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) mid - week. Attention should be paid to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter bond futures contracts [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: This week, the bond futures market showed some divergence. Some market participants pre - speculated on the central bank's treasury bond trading information for this month, leading to relatively stronger performance in the short - to - medium - term. Meanwhile, foreign media reports on real - estate incremental policies suppressed long - term sentiment, with the TL contract declining more in the second half of the week. The actual progress, specific intensity of real - estate policies, and the source of fiscal subsidy funds are unknown, making it difficult to drive a trend - upward in yields. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts are weak, and capital prices continue to constrain the downward movement of yields [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Unilateral Trading**: Adopt a slightly bullish approach and lightly position long on T contracts on dips [6]. - **Arbitrage**: After closing the short position on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) mid - week, stay on the sidelines in the short - term. For inter - delivery - month arbitrage, also enter a wait - and - see mode as the liquidity of the current - quarter contracts will gradually decline next week. Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter bond futures contracts, as their valuations are relatively high, mostly above 1.7% [5]. Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Economic Data** - **EPMI**: In November, China's Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) was 52.7, down 7.0 percentage points from the previous month. Although the decline was significant, it remained in the expansion range. EPMI and the official manufacturing PMI usually have high synchronicity in trends, but they diverged last month, indicating significant differences in the prosperity of different domestic industries. With the slowdown in the expansion of emerging industries in November, the recovery momentum of this month's PMI may still be weak [10]. - **Capital Market** - **Funding Conditions**: This week, affected by tax payments and a still - high net financing scale of government bonds, the market funding situation tightened first and then eased. As of Friday's close, DR001 and DR007 were 1.3209% and 1.4408% respectively. The overnight and 7 - day non - bank funding spreads were 6.68bp and 5.44bp respectively. The one - year certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks slightly rose to around 1.65%. Next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will continue to decline, but approaching the end of the month, the funding situation will face some temporary disturbances. With the central bank's consistent supportive attitude, the upward range of market funding prices is expected to be relatively limited [12][16][17]. - **Term Spread**: Since Wednesday this week, the 30Y - 7Y term spread has widened again. On one hand, after the spread approached 40bp, there was a lack of substantial positive drivers, and the momentum for further compression was insufficient. Some funds pre - speculated on the central bank's treasury bond trading information for November and preferred to go long on medium - term treasury bonds. On the other hand, foreign media reported on Thursday that the policy level was considering providing mortgage subsidies to new home buyers nationwide in the future, which was more bearish for the long - term. If the mortgage subsidy policy is finally implemented, it will help balance the cost of home purchases and the rent - to - sale ratio for residents, and the probability of the central bank cutting interest rates will decrease accordingly, which is negative for the bond market. However, the details of relevant policies are unknown, so the bond market is not expected to over - price in advance [18][19][25]. - **Arbitrage Indicators** - **Inter - delivery - month Arbitrage**: In the past two weeks, the indicators for potential inter - delivery - month arbitrage opportunities during the roll - over period of the T contract triggered two short - term long - trading signals, but the indicator became neutral starting on Thursday, presumably related to the significant increase in long positions in the next - quarter T contract on that day. As next week is the last week before the delivery month, it is recommended to enter a wait - and - see mode for inter - delivery - month arbitrage [5][26][29]. - **Cash - and - carry Arbitrage**: Calculated based on the ChinaBond valuation and futures settlement prices, the implied repo rates (IRR) of the current - quarter contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are 1.3226%, 1.0132%, 1.4099%, and 1.2732% respectively. The IRR of the next - quarter contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are 1.6583%, 1.7361%, 1.7706%, and 1.7469% respectively, with relatively high valuations [34]. - **Roll - over Progress**: This week, the roll - over of the main contracts accelerated significantly. As of Friday's close, the roll - over progress of the TS, TF, T, and TL contracts was 69.2%, 63.2%, 63.7%, and 64.8% respectively [35].

市场偏好短端下沉，而非拉久期 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 251122 本报告导读： 本周信用债交投情绪降温，机构交易行为趋保守，市场偏好短端下沉强于拉久期； 信用债整体表现均衡，5Y 内各期限信用利差已来到年内低点。 投资要点： | | 021-23185652 | | --- | --- | | | zhangzirui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040068 | | | 王宇辰(分析师) | | | 010-83939801 | | | wangyuchen4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523020004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 美元流动性收紧何时缓解 2025.11.18 大行短端买入力度减弱 2025.11.18 本轮移仓有何特征和机会 20251117 2025.11.17 大行融出回落，存单发行提升，6M 期限最多 2025.11.17 地方债发行渐入尾声 2025.11.17 证 券 研 究 报 告 略 周 报 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.23 [Tab ...

Summary of ABS Market Analysis Industry Overview - The Chinese ABS market is divided into interbank and exchange markets, with credit ABS previously dominant, now followed by the rise of exchange ABS and ABN. [1][7] - Currently, enterprise products dominate the market, influenced by macroeconomic factors and real estate, leading to an overall decline in scale. However, consumer finance products are performing strongly, with an annual issuance of approximately 2 trillion RMB and a total stock of about 3.5 trillion RMB. [1][7] Key Insights and Arguments - **Growth Areas**: - General consumer finance ABS is expected to become a growth segment, benefiting from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption. [1][10] - Accounts receivable/supply chain finance ABS are expanding into emerging fields such as new energy, data, and overseas supply chain notes. [1][10] - Leasing ABS activity is increasing with new entities emerging, while city investment assets are decreasing in supply. [1][10] - Non-performing ABS is growing rapidly, primarily driven by banks' off-balance-sheet needs, and is expected to continue increasing in the short to medium term. [1][10] - **Market Dynamics**: - The ABS market is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to one of high-quality development, with limited growth in CNBS but active participation from city investment entities. [2][7] - The liquidity of ABS has improved, attributed to the stability of products and the expansion of trading investors, although monthly turnover rates remain lower than traditional bonds. [12][13] - **Investment Opportunities**: - Current investment opportunities in the ABS market include basis spreads in general consumer finance, term spreads in leasing and fee income rights, seasonal premiums, new issuance premiums, and discounts from bundled sales rules. [19][21] Important but Overlooked Content - **Risk and Return Characteristics**: - Different types of ABS products have unique risk-return profiles, and investors should assess them based on specific circumstances. [21][22] - Retail ABS performance shows a divergence, with lower default rates in mortgage and auto loans compared to higher rates in consumer loans and microloans, yet small diversified assets remain stable. [15][22] - **Challenges**: - The ABS market faces challenges such as valuation pricing difficulties and trading complexities. Investors need to conduct in-depth research on cash flow models and underlying asset performance. [21][22] - **Investor Preferences**: - The main investors in ABS include banks, public funds, bank wealth management, and insurance companies, each with different preferences based on their investment strategies and risk appetites. [24][22] This summary encapsulates the key points from the ABS market analysis, highlighting the current state, growth opportunities, and challenges within the industry.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rate bonds adjusted slightly this week, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds rising by 3BP, 3BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 2BP respectively compared to last week. Credit bonds showed differentiated performance, with the yields of 1Y and 10Y credit bonds rising slightly, while those of 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y falling. Credit spreads of all grades narrowed, with the 3 - 7Y spreads compressing most significantly [2][5]. - The spreads of urban investment bonds mostly declined by 4 - 5BP. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased by 4BP, 5BP, and 5BP respectively compared to last week. Provincial - level platform spreads decreased by 4BP, and municipal - and district - level platform spreads decreased by 5BP [2][9]. - The spreads of industrial bonds declined overall, but the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds continued to rise. The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds decreased by 2 - 4BP, while those of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds increased by 42BP and 15BP respectively. The spreads of coal, steel, and chemical bonds of various grades also declined [2][17]. - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds (two - types of bonds, "two - eternal bonds") rose across the board, performing weaker than ordinary credit bonds. The adjustment amplitude of medium - and high - grade varieties was higher, especially the spreads of 3 - 5Y perpetual bonds widened [2][26]. - The excess spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds rose, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds continued to differentiate. The excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds rose by 4.03BP to 16.17BP, and those of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds remained flat at 12.39BP. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds rose by 2.39BP to 7.39BP, while those of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 4.16BP to 9.14BP [2][31]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Interest rate bonds adjusted, and credit bonds showed differentiated performance, with the 3 - 7Y credit spreads narrowing significantly - Interest rate bonds adjusted slightly this week. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds rose by 3BP, 3BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 2BP respectively compared to last week [2][5]. - Credit bonds of different maturities showed differentiated performance. The yields of 1Y and 10Y credit bonds rose slightly, while those of 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y fell. The spreads of all grades narrowed, with the 3 - 7Y spreads compressing most significantly. In terms of rating spreads and term spreads, there were also different changes [5]. 3.2 The spreads of urban investment bonds declined by 4 - 5BP - The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA urban investment platforms decreased by 4BP, 5BP, and 5BP respectively compared to last week. The spreads of most platforms declined by 3 - 7BP, with some exceptions [9]. - In terms of administrative levels, provincial - level platform spreads decreased by 4BP, and municipal - and district - level platform spreads decreased by 5BP. Most provincial - level platform spreads declined by 2 - 6BP, and most municipal - level platform spreads declined by 4 - 7BP, while most district - level platform spreads declined by 3 - 6BP [9][14]. 3.3 The spreads of industrial bonds declined overall, but the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds continued to rise - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds decreased by 2 - 4BP, while those of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds increased by 42BP and 15BP respectively. For example, the spreads of Longhu decreased by 3BP, and those of Midea Real Estate decreased by 2BP, while those of CIFI rose by 36BP, and those of Vanke rose by 145BP [17]. - The spreads of coal bonds of all grades declined by 4 - 5BP, the spreads of steel bonds of all grades declined by 2 - 4BP, the spreads of AAA - grade chemical bonds declined by 4BP, and those of AA + - grade chemical bonds declined by 5BP. For example, the spreads of Shaanxi Coal Industry decreased by 2BP, those of HBIS decreased by 4BP, and those of Jinkong Coal Industry decreased by 6BP [17]. 3.4 The two - eternal bonds adjusted across the board, performing weaker than ordinary credit bonds - The yields of two - eternal bonds rose across the board, performing weaker than ordinary credit bonds. The adjustment amplitude of medium - and high - grade varieties was higher, especially the spreads of 3 - 5Y perpetual bonds widened [26]. - Specifically, for 1Y bonds, the yields of all - grade secondary - tier capital bonds rose by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads remained flat; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds rose by 2BP, and the spreads decreased by 1BP. For 3Y bonds, the yields of all - grade secondary - tier capital bonds rose by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads rose by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds rose by 3 - 5BP, and the spreads rose by 0 - 2BP. For 5Y bonds, the yields of all - grade secondary - tier capital bonds rose by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads decreased by 1 - 2BP; the yields of AA + and above - grade perpetual bonds rose by 6 - 7BP, and the spreads rose by 1 - 2BP, while the yields of AA - grade perpetual bonds rose by 2BP, and the spreads decreased by 3BP [28]. 3.5 The excess spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds rose, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds continued to differentiate - The excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds rose by 4.03BP to 16.17BP, reaching the 46% quantile since 2015, while the excess spreads of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds remained flat at 12.39BP, reaching the 26.93% quantile since 2015 [31]. - The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds rose by 2.39BP to 7.39BP, reaching the 12.25% quantile, while the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 4.16BP to 9.14BP, reaching the 8.51% quantile [31]. 3.6 Explanation of the compilation of the credit spread database - The overall market credit spreads, the spreads of commercial bank two - eternal bonds, and the credit spreads of urban investment/industrial perpetual bonds are calculated based on the data of ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bonds. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D Center of Cinda Securities, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [37]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated as the individual bond's ChinaBond valuation (exercise) minus the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by the linear interpolation method), and finally the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban investment are obtained by the arithmetic average method [37]. - The excess spreads of bank secondary - tier capital bonds/perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of bank secondary - tier capital bonds/perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of the same - grade and same - term bank ordinary bonds. The excess spreads of industrial/urban investment - type perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of industrial/urban investment - type perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of the same - grade and same - term medium - term notes [37]. - Industrial and urban investment bonds both select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds as samples, and guarantee bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded. If the remaining maturity of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it is excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds are based on external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implied debt - item ratings [37].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant volatility, with a notable divergence between interest rate bonds and credit bonds, driven by recent central bank actions and market sentiment [3][5][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - A pure bond fund heavily invested in 30-year government bonds is projected to face a loss of 53-81 basis points, a stark contrast to typical daily fluctuations [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a slight recovery of 1 basis point after a drop, but overall, it has decreased by 3 basis points over two days, raising questions about the market's optimistic sentiment despite some pullback [3][5]. - The central bank's announcement on October 27 to restart government bond trading has altered market dynamics significantly, likened to turning on a water faucet for a thirsty person [3][7]. Group 2: Institutional Divergence - There is a clear divide in institutional strategies, with fund companies favoring long-duration interest rate bonds while banks and insurance firms focus on credit bonds for yield [9][15]. - The bond market has seen a substantial increase in trading volume, with both interest rate and credit bonds experiencing a rise in transaction numbers, indicating a flow of capital into the bond market [9][17]. Group 3: Central Bank Operations - The central bank's dual approach of restarting government bond trading and conducting a 900 billion yuan MLF operation is reminiscent of quantitative easing strategies used by foreign central banks [7][10]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the central bank's actions, with a strong expectation of continued monetary easing reflected in the performance of long-duration interest rate bonds [10][15]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Liquidity - The bond market's volatility has decreased post-lunch, transitioning from excitement to a more rational outlook, with discussions around potential pricing distortions due to ongoing central bank purchases [12][15]. - There is a noticeable liquidity stratification in the bond market, where large institutions can access funds easily, while smaller non-bank entities face higher financing costs, creating a structural imbalance [15].

Group 1 - The public fund report for Q3 2025 shows over 300 bond funds have disclosed their performance, with 157 funds achieving net value growth [1] - The top-performing fund, Taixin Huiying Bond A, recorded a net value growth rate of 28.01%, while its C share only achieved 7.99%, indicating a significant performance disparity [1] - The bond market experienced notable adjustments in Q3 due to factors such as improved risk appetite among investors, stable macroeconomic conditions, and low bond yields reducing the attractiveness of fixed-income products [1] Group 2 - Several convertible bond funds achieved high net value growth rates, with five out of the top seven funds being convertible bond funds, including Rongtong Convertible Bond A and Jianxin Convertible Bond A [2] - The market's risk appetite has significantly increased, leading to a "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds, with convertible bonds benefiting from the rising stock market, particularly in the technology sector [2] - Different fund managers have varied strategies; for instance, Rongtong Convertible Bond actively increased its positions in AI and innovative pharmaceutical sectors, while Changsheng Convertible Bond optimized its industry allocation based on market conditions [2] Group 3 - Wanji Convertible Bond has shifted to a "dual low convertible bond" strategy, maintaining a bond position between 85% and 90%, with plans to increase positions if the market corrects [3] - The bond market is seen as a low-risk option for investors, with recent trends indicating a recovery phase, particularly in the long-term bond segment [3] - Future bond market performance is expected to depend on monetary and fiscal policy combinations, with potential for downward adjustments in interest rates and opportunities in long-term bonds and green bonds [3]

Group 1 - The 10-1Y yield spread may face widening pressure due to changes in macroeconomic narratives and the weakening economic cycle since 2023, which has shifted the trading behavior and expectations [6][12][18] - The 30-10Y yield spread is expected to narrow in the short term, but long-term observations are needed to assess whether the fundamentals can continue to improve [18][30][39] - The government bond supply is nearing its end in 2025, but broad fiscal expansion is expected in 2026, which may create supply-demand matching pressures on the long-term yield spreads [39][42] Group 2 - The 10-1Y yield spread may widen under the constraints of bond asset cost-effectiveness, while opportunities for curve trading in the 30-10Y yield spread are worth noting [48][49] - The current 30-10Y yield spread has reached a relatively high level, suggesting potential for flattening curve trades [39][40] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics of government bonds, particularly in the context of fiscal policies and central bank actions [42][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The GDP growth rate in Q3 was 4.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but the year-on-year growth rates of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods in September continued to decline, indicating short-term economic pressure. With the initiation of China-US dialogue, Europe's support for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, the bond market slightly corrected, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly last week, but remained very active. Both the term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed last week [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic data, the probability of a bond market rebound is high. With the low probability of additional treasury bond issuance in Q4, the government bond financing growth rate is expected to continue to decline, and the domestic economy will still face pressure. The 30-10 spread is expected to compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year CDB bonds is also expected to compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: The Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8% year-on-year, meeting expectations, but the year-on-year growth rates of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods in September continued to decline, indicating short-term economic pressure. The bond market slightly corrected, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but remained very active. Both the term spread and variety spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed [1][10]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: As of October 26, the spread between 30-year treasury bonds and 10-year treasury bonds was 36BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 12BP, at a historically extremely low level. Considering the economic data, the probability of a bond market rebound is high. The 30-10 spread is expected to compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year CDB bonds is also expected to compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. - **Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview**: As of September 30, the balance of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 23.7802 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: The issuance volume of ultra-long bonds surged last week. A total of 118.1 billion yuan of ultra-long bonds were issued, all of which were local government bonds. By term, 12.6 billion yuan had a 15-year term, 37.7 billion yuan had a 20-year term, and 67.8 billion yuan had a 30-year term [18]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The planned issuance volume of ultra-long bonds announced this week is 105.1 billion yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: The trading of ultra-long bonds was very active last week, with a trading volume of 1.0317 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.5% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly. Compared with the previous two weeks, the trading volume decreased by 47.5 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.3% [27]. - **Yield**: The Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8% year-on-year, meeting expectations, but the year-on-year growth rates of fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods in September continued to decline, indicating short-term economic pressure. The bond market slightly corrected, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 4BP respectively, reaching 2.09%, 2.20%, 2.21%, and 2.29%. The yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year CDB bonds changed by 2BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 4BP respectively, reaching 2.20%, 2.32%, 2.38%, and 2.45% [3][35]. - **Spread Analysis**: The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The variety spread of ultra-long bonds also narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The 30-year - 10-year spread of treasury bonds was 36BP, 2BP lower than the previous two weeks, at the 17% quantile since 2010. The spreads between 20-year CDB bonds and treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and treasury bonds were 12BP and 13BP respectively, with changes of 0BP and -6BP compared to the previous two weeks, at the 10% and 9% quantiles since 2010 [41][46]. 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures - The main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.01 yuan, a decrease of 0.74%. The total trading volume was 693,100 lots (-28,779 lots), and the open interest was 176,100 lots (-8,882 lots). Both the trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous two weeks [48].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the 2-3 year medium-rated entities remain suitable for investment, balancing both defensive and offensive strategies. Current high-grade, short-duration spreads have compressed to very low levels, with some high liquidity central enterprises' valuations nearly indistinguishable from similar-term government bonds, indicating limited room for further compression [6][9]. - The report notes that the absolute yield attractiveness of high-grade, medium-term spreads has diminished, with most spreads now below 2.2%. There are still some medium to low-rated entities yielding between 2.15% and 2.3% that can be explored, as evidenced by recent performance [6][9]. - The report highlights that the credit bond market's attention is currently low, with a strong preference for controlling duration and maintaining liquidity, leading to weak buying power. The focus remains on 2-3 year medium-rated entities [6][9]. Group 2 - The weekly review indicates a rebound in issuance volume post-holiday, with net financing increasing to 184.7 billion yuan, marking a return to levels close to 200 billion yuan after a two-month period [11][13]. - The report states that credit spreads across various grades and maturities have continued to narrow, with the average spread compression around 1-3 basis points, while low-rated and long-term bonds remained stable [11][17]. - The report also mentions that the average credit spread for city investment bonds has narrowed by approximately 4 basis points, with minimal differentiation among provinces, while industry credit spreads have also contracted by 3 basis points [22][23].