Workflow
短视频对出版业的影响
icon
Search documents
对话果麦路金波:从榕树下到抖音,作家、读者与出版业的二十年变迁
乱翻书· 2025-05-14 13:10
Core Viewpoint - The publishing industry is undergoing significant changes due to the rise of short video platforms like Douyin, shifting from a supply-driven model to a demand-driven one, where user needs dictate supply [1][21][34]. Group 1: Changes in the Publishing Industry - The media environment has transitioned from a tree structure to a network structure, increasing the weight of demand and shifting the publishing industry from "supply determines demand" to "demand influences supply" [1][21]. - Short video platforms have transformed book sales from "people searching for books" to "books finding people," leading to more efficient supply-demand matching [1][21][34]. - The emergence of generative AI will serve as a creative aid, but the ultimate value still lies in human judgment and creativity [1][21]. Group 2: The Role of Literature - Literature may continue to decline under the influence of media technology, as it occupies a brief period in human cultural history, with modern novels flourishing for only about 160 years [2][44]. - The era of super bestsellers, like Han Han's 20 million copies sold, has passed, but the content market has become more diverse and equitable, allowing more voices from ordinary writers to be heard [2][44]. Group 3: Historical Context of Chinese Literature - Three significant "baby booms" in modern Chinese culture are identified, each corresponding to key historical events that shaped the literary landscape [4]. - The first generation was born around 1898, participating in the May Fourth Movement; the second around 1955, coinciding with the Reform and Opening Up in 1978; and the third around 1978, emerging during the internet era [4]. Group 4: The Impact of Short Video Platforms - Short video platforms have become major channels for book sales, with a notable increase in the popularity of social science books during the period from 2020 to 2023 [14][16]. - The publishing industry has seen a shift where books are now used as a primary entry point for new platforms seeking to expand their user base [16][34]. Group 5: Supply Chain Innovations - The publishing company has adopted a zero-inventory model, allowing for rapid response to demand through a highly efficient supply chain that can produce books within hours [32][37]. - This shift has enabled the company to reduce warehouse space while increasing the speed and efficiency of matching supply with demand [32][37]. Group 6: The Future of Literature and AI - The decline of literature is anticipated as other media forms, such as short videos and AI-generated content, become more prevalent [44][60]. - AI is seen as a tool to enhance productivity in the publishing process, but the intrinsic value of content will still rely on human creativity and judgment [61][62]. Group 7: The Role of the Publisher - The publisher's role is evolving into that of a cultural merchant, utilizing technology to discover demand while maintaining a cultural judgment to match supply [65][66]. - The focus remains on discovering value and producing quality content, adapting to the changing landscape of media and consumer preferences [66].