本文来自微信公众号：一点儿乌干菜，首发于2025年2月14日，作者：章程，题图来自：AI生成 2月14日这个日子，最适合看伯格曼的《婚姻生活》、诺亚·鲍姆巴赫的《婚姻故事》，以及《坠落的审 判》这类电影！ 最近重看了《坠落的审判》，最大的感受是：欧洲人吵架（或争辩）好高级！不管是夫妻争吵，抑或庭 审的唇枪舌战，对话都很精彩，堪称人均精神分析学家，能把对方的潜意识都拎出来鞭尸！吵架学问之 博大精深，"犹河汉之无极也"！ 婚姻里一地鸡毛之类的车轱辘话，暂且不说，没啥新鲜的。毕竟经过伯格曼电影的洗礼，感觉已没有情 感之虚假能刺激到我。但《坠落的审判》的好看在于它把很多难讲明的精神状态给"说道"出来，这点就 有意思了。如果有人愿意拎出对话，以精神分析理论作为注脚，必定能牵出很多枝枝蔓蔓（至少唤起我 早年啃那些理论的阅读经验），譬如，女主反驳男主的"自我牺牲"言论时如是说： 试想，老K同志要是没有熟读金庸，哪里能这么"引经据典"地骂人！ 言归正传。《坠落的审判》这电影还挺游离的，这点很好！它始终在文本和事实之间延宕开距离，我有 点分不清哪些话是真的，哪些话是假的。我甚至觉得小男孩一直在"编故事"，他才是一个好作家，以小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The publishing industry is undergoing significant changes due to the rise of short video platforms like Douyin, shifting from a supply-driven model to a demand-driven one, where user needs dictate supply [1][21][34]. Group 1: Changes in the Publishing Industry - The media environment has transitioned from a tree structure to a network structure, increasing the weight of demand and shifting the publishing industry from "supply determines demand" to "demand influences supply" [1][21]. - Short video platforms have transformed book sales from "people searching for books" to "books finding people," leading to more efficient supply-demand matching [1][21][34]. - The emergence of generative AI will serve as a creative aid, but the ultimate value still lies in human judgment and creativity [1][21]. Group 2: The Role of Literature - Literature may continue to decline under the influence of media technology, as it occupies a brief period in human cultural history, with modern novels flourishing for only about 160 years [2][44]. - The era of super bestsellers, like Han Han's 20 million copies sold, has passed, but the content market has become more diverse and equitable, allowing more voices from ordinary writers to be heard [2][44]. Group 3: Historical Context of Chinese Literature - Three significant "baby booms" in modern Chinese culture are identified, each corresponding to key historical events that shaped the literary landscape [4]. - The first generation was born around 1898, participating in the May Fourth Movement; the second around 1955, coinciding with the Reform and Opening Up in 1978; and the third around 1978, emerging during the internet era [4]. Group 4: The Impact of Short Video Platforms - Short video platforms have become major channels for book sales, with a notable increase in the popularity of social science books during the period from 2020 to 2023 [14][16]. - The publishing industry has seen a shift where books are now used as a primary entry point for new platforms seeking to expand their user base [16][34]. Group 5: Supply Chain Innovations - The publishing company has adopted a zero-inventory model, allowing for rapid response to demand through a highly efficient supply chain that can produce books within hours [32][37]. - This shift has enabled the company to reduce warehouse space while increasing the speed and efficiency of matching supply with demand [32][37]. Group 6: The Future of Literature and AI - The decline of literature is anticipated as other media forms, such as short videos and AI-generated content, become more prevalent [44][60]. - AI is seen as a tool to enhance productivity in the publishing process, but the intrinsic value of content will still rely on human creativity and judgment [61][62]. Group 7: The Role of the Publisher - The publisher's role is evolving into that of a cultural merchant, utilizing technology to discover demand while maintaining a cultural judgment to match supply [65][66]. - The focus remains on discovering value and producing quality content, adapting to the changing landscape of media and consumer preferences [66].