交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。9月9日，以色列袭击卡塔尔首都引发中东地缘 政治再次动荡，8月20日，彭博社报道，针对石化与炼油行业的全面改革方案正在酝酿，拟解决 长期产能过剩。供需端，农膜企业开工缓慢恢复，整体需求仍较往年偏弱，其余包装膜等按需采 购为主。当前LL交割品现货价7200（-20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-9，升贴水比例-0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54.5万吨（+3.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, with the official PMI in August at 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI at 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become tense again due to the Israeli attack on the capital of Qatar on September 9th. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated to address long - term overcapacity [4][8]. - For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with the spot price of the delivery product at 7220 (unchanged). The market is expected to be volatile today, with the demand for agricultural films recovering but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being neutral [4]. - For PP, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with the spot price of the delivery product at 6980 (unchanged). The market is expected to be volatile today, with new production capacity being put into operation recently and the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving showing improvement expectations [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: Macroeconomic indicators show improved manufacturing prosperity. The demand for agricultural films is slowly recovering but is still weaker than usual, and other packaging films are mainly purchased as needed. The overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 6, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 54.5 million tons (+3.5), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak demand is a bearish factor [6]. - **Main Logic and Risks**: The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies. The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - situation shows improved manufacturing prosperity. There is new production capacity, and the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is expected to improve. The overall fundamentals are neutral [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [8]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 57.5 million tons (-0.8), which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today [8]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak demand is a bearish factor [10]. - **Main Logic and Risks**: The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies. The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [11]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 29, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Core Views - LLDPE and PP are expected to show a volatile trend today. The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies. Potential risks are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industry is being planned, expected to be introduced in September. - Supply and demand: The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7280 (-30), with a neutral overall fundamental situation. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -78, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), showing a neutral situation. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. - Main positions: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. [4] Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: Cost support and anti - involution policies. - Bearish factors: Weak demand. [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industry is being planned, expected to be introduced in September. - Supply and demand: The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has slightly improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7000 (-50), with a neutral overall fundamental situation. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -20, and the premium/discount ratio is -0.3%, showing a neutral signal. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), indicating a neutral situation. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. - Main positions: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. [8] Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: Cost support and anti - involution policies. - Bearish factors: Weak demand. [9] Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7280 (-30), and the price of the 01 contract is 7358 (-6). - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 7000 (-50), and the price of the 01 contract is 7020 (-1). [11] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), including 7669 warehouse receipts (unchanged). - PP: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), including 14055 warehouse receipts (unchanged). [11] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5%. [16] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0%. [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a slightly stronger and volatile trend today. This is due to factors such as cost support, the expected upcoming anti - involution reform plan in the petrochemical industry, but also constrained by weak demand [4][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. An overall reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7350 (+50), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 52, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 564,000 tons (+59,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With the expectation of anti - involution policies and weak agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory, the PE market is expected to trend slightly stronger and volatile today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the expected upcoming petrochemical anti - involution reform plan are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic data shows a manufacturing contraction in July. An overall reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is in the works. Downstream demand in the pipe and plastic weaving sectors is slightly improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7050 (+20), with overall neutral fundamentals [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 4, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.1%, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 572,000 tons (-15,000), which is neutral [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With the expectation of anti - involution policies and slightly improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, the PP market is expected to trend slightly stronger and volatile today [8]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the expected upcoming petrochemical anti - involution reform plan are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [9]. Data Tables - **Spot and Futures Market**: The data shows the prices and price changes of LLDPE and PP spot and futures contracts, as well as the basis and inventory information [11]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provides historical supply - demand balance data for polyethylene and polypropylene from 2018 - 2024, including capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators, along with estimated data for 2025 [16][18].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 26, 2025 - Company: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Analyst: Jin Zebin [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend today, influenced by factors such as cost support, potential anti - involution policies, and weak demand [4]. - The PP market is also expected to show an oscillating and slightly upward trend, considering cost support, upcoming reform plans, and the gradual improvement in downstream demand [8]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both showed contraction, while exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year. An industry reform plan to address over - capacity is expected to be introduced in September. The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7300 (+0), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2601 contract basis is - 123, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 56.4 tons (+5.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate, and with the expectation of anti - involution policies and weak agricultural film demand, the PE is expected to trend slightly upward today [4]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and the expected introduction of a petrochemical anti - involution reform plan; negative factors are weak demand [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, July's manufacturing PMIs contracted, and exports rose. A reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is expected in September. Downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, with a slight improvement in the demand for pipes and plastic weaving. The current PP delivery spot price is 7050 (+20), with overall neutral fundamentals [8]. - **Basis**: The PP 2601 contract basis is - 24, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 57.2 tons (-1.5), which is neutral [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to oscillate, and with the expectation of anti - involution policies and the improvement in downstream demand, the PP is expected to trend slightly upward today [8]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include cost support and the expected introduction of a petrochemical anti - involution reform plan; negative factors are weak demand [9]. Main Logic and Risks - **Main Logic**: The main influencing factors are cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [7][10]. - **Risks**: The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7][10]. Data Tables - **Spot and Futures Data**: The report provides detailed spot prices, futures prices, basis, and inventory data for LLDPE and PP, including information on import prices, import spreads, and different contract prices [11]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets for polyethylene and polypropylene from 2018 to 2025E are presented, showing data on capacity, production, net imports, consumption, and inventory [16][18]. Charts - The report includes multiple charts, such as LLDPE and PP's futures - spot prices and basis, warehouse receipts, comprehensive inventory, production cash flow, and polyolefin internal - external price spreads [12][14][19]