上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为350.5元/吨（+9.1），PP油制生产利润为-389.5元/吨（+9.1），PDH制PP生产利润 为-393.0元/吨（-53.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-21.4元/吨（-54.6），PP进口利润为-221.6元/吨（-54.4），PP出口利润为1.6美元/吨（+6.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.6%（+0.0%）。 市场分析 聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-25 需求季节性转弱，短期上行驱动有限 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6793元/吨（+23），PP主力合约收盘价为6372元/吨（+15），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6900元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6380元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为7元/吨（-23），LL华 东基差为107元/吨（-23）， ...

2025年11月25日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周一贵金属价格大涨，伦敦金上涨 1.72%至 4134 美元。 基本面：旧金山联储主席 Mary Daly 表示支持美联储在下月会议上降息，理由是她认为就业市场突然恶化的 可能性更大，且比通胀飙升更难管理；美联储理事沃勒明确表示主张 12 月降息，因其更担心劳动力市场而非 通胀；中美两国元首通电话，确认将坚持正确方向，拉长合作清单。国内黄金 ETF 持续流入，COMEX 黄金 库存 1137.4 吨，减少 5.9 吨；上期所黄金库存 90.4 吨，维持不变；伦敦 10 月黄金库存 8926 吨，增加 18 吨； 上期所白银库存 532 吨，增加 19 吨；金交所白银库存上周库存 715 吨，减少 8 吨，COMEX 白银库存 14328 吨，增加 0.2 吨；伦敦 10 月白银库存增加创纪录的 1673 吨至 26252 吨；印度 9 月白银进口约 1000 吨左右； 全球最大黄金 ETF-SPDR 持有量 1040.9 吨，增加 0.3 吨；白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15257 吨，维持不变。 ...

| 52 | 0.95% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 61.60% | 5508 | 5456 | 160 | 2.84% | 5790 | 55.10% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅锰 (SM601) | 5630 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 151 | 4.89% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 3240 | 63.40% | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3089 | -5 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | -0.15% | 3290 | 3562 | 15.90% | 热卷 (HC2601) | | | | | | 67 | 8.51% | 791 | 52.80% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF)：淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12601) | 858 | -8 | -0. $1% | 焦炭 (J2 ...

2025年11月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：开工大涨，库存续降 | 9 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 11 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：估值低位反弹 | 17 | | 尿素：震荡回调 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 23 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 23 | | PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：窄幅震荡，短期或强于低硫 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：仍然偏弱，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短 ...

• LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-25 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的部 分限制措施，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，OPEC + 11 月12日将原油市场供不应求调整为供过于求，引发油价下跌。供需端，农膜需求有所回落， 其余膜类以刚需为主。当前LL交割品现货价6840（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差47，升贴水比例0.7%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55.4万吨（-2.5），偏空； • ...

| 1.57% | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5472 | 66.40% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | ટર્ટક | 86 | 184 | 3.28% | 硅罐 (SM601) | 5790 | 5606 | 59.30% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3220 | 163 | 5.33% | 66.60% | 3057 | 热卷 (HC2601) | 0.00% | 17.90% | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | | | | 855 | 786 | ୧୦ | 8.79% | 54.20% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12601) | 21 | 1.27% | 1615 | 1 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6770 | -0.95% | 344017 | -3991 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | 0 | | -35 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -61 | | -48 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6770 | | 6800 | | | | 东 华 | 6910 | | 6940 | | | | 华 南 | 7050 | | 7050 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 原料端原油价格震荡，单体环节利润压缩，PE 盘面低位震荡，近端下游农膜、 ...

2025年11月24日 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油弱势运行 | 8 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 10 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 11 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡偏弱，下方空间收窄 | 16 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 22 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 22 | | PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | 25 | | 燃料油：下跌趋势重现，短期或强于低硫 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：弱势延续，外盘现货高低硫价差转而收缩 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡整理 | 27 | | 短纤：短期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2]. - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: Risk sentiment remains weak, and prices are oscillating [2][10]. - Zinc: Subject to macro - level disturbances [2][13]. - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2][16]. - Tin: Prices have fallen from a high level [2][19]. - Aluminum: Affected by macro - level disturbances; Alumina: Ranging within a certain interval; Casting aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure to move in an oscillatory manner; Stainless steel: Weak market reality suppresses steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][27][28]. - Lithium carbonate: The speed of inventory reduction has slowed down, and a market sentiment cooldown may lead to a price correction [2][33]. - Industrial silicon: The market shows a weak pattern; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][36][37]. - Iron ore: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is relatively high [2][40]. - Rebar: Oscillating weakly; Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating weakly [2][43]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation; Manganese silicon: Wide - range oscillation [2][48]. - Coke: Wide - range oscillation; Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][52]. - Logs: Repeated oscillations [2][54]. - Para - xylene: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits; PTA: In a single - sided oscillatory market, avoid chasing high prices; MEG: New device launches lead to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure persists [2][28]. - Rubber: Oscillating; Synthetic rubber: Oscillating [2][31][33]. - Asphalt: Following the weak trend of crude oil [2][35]. - LLDPE: Agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, pay attention to supply pressure; PP: Do not chase short - term short positions, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend; Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37][38][39]. - Pulp: Oscillating [2][40]. - Glass: The price of original glass is stable [2][42]. - Methanol: Oscillating weakly, with the downside space narrowing; Urea: Short - term oscillation has support; Styrene: Short - term oscillation; Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [2][43][45][47][48]. - LPG: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term; Propylene: Spot prices are trending strongly, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom; PVC: Do not chase short positions, oscillating at a low level; Fuel oil: Short - term strength, continuous rebound at night; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weak trend continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly declined; Container shipping index (European line): In an oscillatory market; Short - fiber: Short - term oscillatory market; Bottle chips: Short - term oscillatory market, with processing fees being compressed; Offset printing paper: Oscillating at a low level; Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline blending has started, mainly oscillating in the short term; Palm oil: The rebound height is limited, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas; Soybean oil: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, mainly oscillating within a certain range; Soybean meal: Oscillating; Soybean: Oscillating; Corn: Oscillating; Sugar: Consolidating at a low level; Cotton: Futures prices maintain an oscillatory trend; Eggs: The volume of culled hens has increased; Pigs: The expectation of temperature drop has materialized, and pressure is gradually being released; Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2][5][49] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of domestic and international futures contracts showed declines, trading volumes and positions changed, and ETF positions decreased. For silver, futures prices also declined, trading volumes decreased, and positions increased. Inventory levels of both decreased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, with unemployment reaching a four - year high. The number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased last week, while the number of continued claims reached a four - year high. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [6][9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot - futures spreads also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US employment data was mixed, and the Netherlands suspended intervention in Nexperia. Peru's copper production increased, a copper mine project in Chile obtained environmental approval, China's copper product output decreased, and import and export data for copper - related products changed [10][12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices declined slightly, trading volumes decreased, positions increased, inventory levels changed, and various price spreads and premiums also changed [13]. - **News**: The US September non - farm report showed mixed signals in the employment market, which may complicate the Fed's December decision [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions declined, inventory levels changed, and price spreads and import - related data also changed [16]. - **News**: Similar to other metals, it was affected by the US employment data [17]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot prices and price spreads changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In addition to the US employment data, there were reports about Trump's AI policy and the White House's pressure on Congress regarding AI chip exports [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For electrolytic aluminum, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory levels, and price spreads changed. For alumina, relevant data also showed certain trends. For casting aluminum alloy, prices and inventory levels changed [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and there were differences within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, and various industrial chain prices and spreads also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for nickel imports, and there were regulations and policies in the Indonesian mining industry. There were also trade - related threats from the US [28][30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory levels of lithium carbonate contracts changed, and the prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed certain trends [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, and production and inventory data for lithium carbonate changed [34]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon changed, and spot prices, profits, and inventory levels also varied [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A 200 - megawatt photovoltaic project in Xinjiang was put into operation [38]. Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined slightly, and price spreads changed [40]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial added value data was released [41]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined, and price spreads changed [43]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data for steel products were released, and national steel production data from January to October was also provided [44][46]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices and price spreads also changed [48]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price information for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon was released, and manganese ore import data was provided [49][50]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices remained stable, and price spreads changed [52]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply during the heating season [53].

Report Information - Report date: November 21, 2025 [1][4][13][14][19][22][25][35][39][43][48][53][57][63][67][69][72][80][83][85] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including trends such as supply - demand changes, price fluctuations, and trading strategies for each commodity [2][4][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is expected to be tight, with a rising unilateral price. Suggest 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene for hedging. The terminal polyester demand is weakening marginally [10][11] - **PTA**: The upside space may be limited, do not chase high. Cost provides support, and the month - spread view is revised to positive arbitrage [11] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is weak. Short at high prices and maintain reverse arbitrage for month - spreads. Supply is expected to increase, and there is an oversupply situation in December [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The supply side provides support, but the demand side from tire factories is weak, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally [13][14][17][18] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. Short - term prices are supported by the rubber sector, but the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [19][20][21] Asphalt - It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][34] LLDPE - Agricultural demand may be reaching its peak. Pay attention to supply pressure. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid needs, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness has weakened [35][36] PP - Do not short in the short term, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. Low profits limit the downward space [39][40] Caustic Soda - The trend is still under pressure. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is weak, and the long - term negative feedback from alumina production cuts may occur [43][45] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The price fluctuation is affected by factors such as futures stability, weak demand, and high inventory [48][50][52] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the price has been adjusted downward in some regions [53][54] Methanol - It is in a weakly volatile state with a narrowing downward space. The supply is high, the demand from the MTO industry is under pressure, and the cost - side pricing logic weight increases slightly [57][60][62] Urea - It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the fourth - batch export quota and mid - stream replenishment may relieve the pressure [63][65][66] Styrene - It is in a short - term volatile state. The short - term aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil logic continues, and the pure benzene market has a weak chemical reality and a strong blending oil expectation [67][68] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is based on low - price rigid needs [69][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [72] - **Propylene**: The spot trend is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom [72] PVC - Do not short at low levels. It is in a low - level volatile state. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production. However, the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change in the short term [80][81] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has strengthened in the short term, with a continuous rebound at night [83] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly decreased [83] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile state [85] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term volatile state [31] - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term volatile state, and the processing fee is compressed [31] Offset Printing Paper - It is in a low - level volatile state [32] Pure Benzene - It is mainly volatile in the short term. The overseas blending oil market is starting, and the chemical fundamentals are weak [34][68]