2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随油价偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 17 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡为主，不追空 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：成本端偏弱，关注低位反弹风险 | 23 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，现货价格存支撑 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：弱势仍在，短线进入调整 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：暂时弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：2-4正套轻仓入场 | 28 | | 短纤：短期低 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资 ...

2025年10月10日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 3975 市场表现：以伦敦金计价的国际金价下跌 1.58%,收报 美元/盎司;国内方面。 | | | | 金 | 基本面：美联储理事巴尔强调通胀风险、称降息需谨慎；纽约联储行长威廉姆斯表示支持今年进一步降息， | | | | 属 | 并不认为经济处于衰退边缘；美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布 9 月 CPI 数据；IMF 发布 2025 年 | | 10 | | | 月世界经济展望，全球经济增长预计 2025 年和 年均为 3.3%。国内黄金 ETF 资金流入。COMEX 黄金 | 2026 | | | | 库存 1242 吨，减少 5 吨；上期所黄金库存 70 吨，增加 2.8 吨；伦敦 8 月黄金库存 8830 吨；上期所白银库 | | | | | 存 1186 吨，减少 3 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1172 吨，减少 42 吨，COMEX 白银库存 16362 吨，减少 | | | | | 60 吨；伦敦 8 月白银库存增加 447 吨 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 【股指】 在贵金属、工业金属以及稀土等板块的带动下，国内股市大幅上涨。基 本面上，国庆期间美国经济数据不及预期，增强美联储降息预期，全球股市整体 上涨。国内央行大额续作 MLF，市场流动性充裕；政策方面；此外，国内多个行 业稳增长方案陆续出台，政策支持力度加大，国内风险偏好有望继续升温。近期 市场交易逻辑主要聚焦在国内增量刺激政策上，短 ...

• LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。OPEC + 于 10 月 5 日决议 11 月增产 13.7 万桶 / 日，增幅低于 前期加速增产传言，中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。供需端，装置 检修减少，负荷窄幅提升，产量有所增加，"金九银十" 旺季临近尾声，下游逐步转淡，农膜 开工略有提升，整体需求支撑偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7080（-80），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差3，升贴水比例0.0%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54.3万吨（ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/24 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 2025/09/25 20 ...

2025年10月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 7 | | 沥青：华南独累库，美委再生波 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：节中外盘弱势运行 | 23 | | 丙烯：节中现货止跌反弹 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：短线转弱，波动将放大 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：开盘或下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：地缘快速降温，关注下行风险 | 28 | | 短纤：趋势偏弱 | 31 | | ...

风险提示：贸易战反复，美国经济恢复超预期 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周二早盘高开，全日窄幅波动。主力 11 合约收于 8640 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 30 元/吨，收 | | | | | | | 盘价比 0.35%，持仓减少 32579 手至 17.44 万手，品种沉淀资金增加 3.38 亿元，远月 01 减仓 2092 手。 | | | | | | | 今日仓单量增加 781 手至 50983 手。 | | | | | | 工 | 基本面：供给方面，SMM 数据显示，9 月产量为 42 万吨，环比+9.09%。库存来看，行业总库存约为 | | | | 54.3 | | 业 | 万吨，广期所仓单为 50,983（+781）手。需求方面，多晶硅开工率较高支撑需求，SMM 预计 10 月份产量环 | | | | | | 硅 | 比+6.16%。有机硅产量小幅下滑，铝合金开工率维持小幅增长。 | | | | | | | | 交易策略：四季度关注进入枯水期后的库存累积节奏。同时，"反内卷"政策推高相 ...

来源：中国金融信息网 图为中国能化现货估价指数走势图 中国能化现货估价指数在国庆最后一个工作日下跌明显，主要因国际油价宽幅下挫，消息面支撑减弱，且节前业者多已备 货到位，市场成交气氛转淡，能化大宗品普遍报价微跌。 表为当期中国能化现货监测估价情况 （单位：元／吨，山东、上海、舟山保税船燃单位：美元／吨） | 行业 | 品类 | 详情 | 当期价格 | 上期价格 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石油 | 原油 | 山东港进口到岸价 | 4050 | 4170 | -120 | -2.88% | | 石油 | 汽油 | 华北地区 | 7625 | 7650 | -25 | -0. 33% | | 石油 | 汽油 | 山东省 | 7440 | 7460 | -20 | -0. 27% | | 石油 | 汽油 | 华东地区 | 7700 | 7730 | -30 | -0. 39% | | 石油 | 柴油 | 华北地区 | 6665 | 6700 | -35 | -0. 52% | | 石油 | 柴油 | 山东省 | 6440 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a volatile adjustment [2][5]. - The decline of the US dollar has pushed up the price of copper [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound [2][13]. - The decline in lead inventory limits the price decline [2][16]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][19]. - Aluminum will trade within a range, alumina will continue to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the game between short - term supply - demand and cost [2][25]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to changes in mining licenses and suggest light - position operations before the holiday [2][32]. - The supply - demand of industrial silicon has weakened, and for polysilicon, pay attention to policy expectations [2][35][36]. - Iron ore prices will fluctuate at a high level with repeated expectations [2][39]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will fluctuate weakly as raw material trends weaken [2][41]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices will fluctuate weakly due to sector sentiment resonance [2][44]. - Coke and coking coal prices will fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][47][48]. - Log prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][50]. - Para - xylene and PTA will remain weak in the medium term, and for MEG, conduct a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage, and pay attention to position management before the holiday [2][54]. - Rubber will trade in a volatile manner, and synthetic rubber will operate weakly [2][31][33]. - Asphalt's factory and warehouse inventories have both declined [2][35]. - LLDPE will have a medium - term volatile market, and PP may be in a volatile market in the medium term [2][37][38]. - Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but has strong cost support [2][39]. - Pulp will trade in a volatile manner [2][41]. - The price of glass original sheets is stable [2][43]. - Methanol will trade in a volatile manner in the short term, and urea will fluctuate in the short term with a weakening trend [2][44][46]. - Close short positions in styrene and pure benzene before the National Day [2][48][63]. - The short - term support for LPG is not weak, and pay attention to cost changes; propylene will operate weakly in the short term [2][50]. - PVC will trade at a low level [2][53]. - The price of fuel oil rose at night and then fell back, with the price center remaining high; low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened in the short term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [2][54]. - For the container shipping index (European line), pay attention to the implementation of price increases and the fermentation of geopolitical events [2][55]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices will fluctuate in the short term with pressure, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][60]. - The short - term rebound height of palm oil is limited, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday; soybean oil's upside space is difficult to open as US soybeans fluctuate weakly [2][64]. - Soybean meal will fluctuate, and avoid risks during the long holiday; soybean No.1 will fluctuate [2][66]. - For corn, pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][68]. - Sugar will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][70]. - Both domestic and overseas cotton futures are weak [2][71]. - Suggest light - position operations in eggs during the holiday [2][73]. - The bottom of the live - hog spot market has not been reached [2][74]. - For peanuts, pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][75]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2510 was 863.60 with a daily increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 870.42 with a night - session increase of 1.02%. The trend intensity is 0 [6][8]. - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2510 was 10912 with a daily increase of 3.07%, and the night - session closing price was 10907.00 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend intensity is 1 [6][8]. Base Metals - Copper: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 82370 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 83680 with a night - session increase of 1.59%. The trend intensity is 2 [10][12]. - Zinc: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 21800 with a daily decrease of 0.82%. The trend intensity is 0 [13][14]. - Lead: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 16855 with a daily decrease of 1.49%. The trend intensity is 0 [16][17]. - Tin: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 272410 with a daily decrease of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 279670 with a night - session increase of 2.62%. The trend intensity is 0 [20][22]. - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20730, down 15 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina will continue to be weak (trend intensity: - 1), and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum (trend intensity: 0) [23][24]. - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 121100, down 280 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless - steel's main contract closing price was 12760, down 80 from the previous day, and its trend intensity is also 0 [25][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73920, up 1040 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0 [32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8610. The supply - demand has weakened, and the trend intensity is - 1 [35][38]. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract's closing price was 51280. Pay attention to policy expectations, and the trend intensity is 0 [36][38]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the 12601 contract was 784.0, down 6.0 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 1 [39]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The closing price of RB2601 was 3097, down 42 from the previous day; the closing price of HC2601 was 3289, down 41 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [41][42][43]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5610, down 50 from the previous day; silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5802, down 26 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [44][45][46]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1154, down 42.5 from the previous day; the closing price of J2601 was 1647, down 45.5 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are 0 [48][49]. - Log: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 810.5, up 0.2% from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0 [50][51][53]. - Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene and PTA will remain weak in the medium term. For MEG, conduct a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to position management before the holiday [2][54]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The short - term rebound height is limited, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][64]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans fluctuate weakly, and the upside space of soybean oil is difficult to open [2][64]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: Soybean meal will fluctuate, and avoid risks during the long holiday; soybean No.1 will fluctuate [2][66]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][68]. - Sugar: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][70]. - Cotton: Both domestic and overseas cotton futures are weak [2][71]. - Eggs: Suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][73]. - Live Hogs: The bottom of the spot market has not been reached [2][74]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][75].