发布日期：2026年1月9日 【行情分析】 【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 塑料2605合约增仓震荡上行，最低价6602元/吨，最高价6685元/吨，最终收盘于6674元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.17%。持仓量减少14010手至491289手。 现货方面： PE现货市场涨跌互现，涨跌幅在-100至+100元/吨之间，LLDPE报6500-6770元/吨，LDPE报 8650-9110元/吨，HDPE报6750-8340元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 1月9日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在87%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月9 日当周，元旦节后，PE下游开工率环比上升0.06个百分点至41.21%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继 续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小幅上升，整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。原 油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油设施未受损， 且其产量仅占全球供应 ...

2026 年 1 月 9 日 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2605 | 6484 | -0.03% | 557946 | -8586 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -204 | | -206 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -52 | | -54 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6250 | | 6250 | | | | 华东 | 6280 | | 6280 | | | | 华南 | 6350 | | 6330 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 商 品 研 究 PP：丙烯强于乙烯，一季度 PDH 检修预期较 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 强 盘面震荡，部分套盘资源 ...

2026 年 1 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明 国 泰 君 安 期 货 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6628 | -0.21% | 657423 | -379 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -128 | | -162 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -37 | | -45 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6500 | | 6480 | | | | 华东 | 6560 | | 6550 | | | | 华南 | 6550 | | 6550 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货涨势有所放缓，前期盘面反弹，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期矛盾不大，库存向中游转移, 仓单暂停去化，今日成交氛围有所转淡。外盘 ...

2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260109 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡中枢上移 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明显 | 8 | | PP：丙烯强于乙烯，一季度PDH检修预期较强 | 9 | | 烧碱：偏弱震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260109 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：关注地缘扰动 | 21 | | 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 | 21 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，下方仍有支撑 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘上行，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：轻仓试多02做交割；04空单持 ...

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经北京1月8日电（郑大伟）截至2026年1月8日，中国能化现货估价指数报 786.31点，较前一工作日（1月7日，下 同）下跌2.36点，跌幅为0.3%，较基期（2024年7月2日）下跌213.69点，跌幅为21.37%。 其中，石油行业估价指数报749.29点，较前一工作日下跌5.26点，跌幅为0.7%。 天然气行业估价指数报842.89点，较前一工作日下跌2.93点，跌幅为0.35%。 化工行业估价指数报818.44点，较前一工作日上涨1.41点，涨幅为0.17%。 今日国内能化现货指数整体收跌，行业间走势仍有分化。国际原油收盘大跌，市场利空情绪加码，多数品类价格延续跌 势，业者多观望消化库存为主，整体补货情况一般。天然气行业受制于需求疲软，局部地区价格仍有下调。化工品消息 面利好延续，部分品种价格小幅探涨。 表：当期中国能化现货监测估价情况 （单位：元／吨，山东、上海、舟山保税船燃 单位：美元／吨） | 行业 | 品类 | 详情 | 当期价格 | 上期价格 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石 ...

塑料日报：震荡运行 【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026年1月8日 【行情分析】 1月8日，新增福建联合全密度2线、浙江石化LDPE 二期等检修装置，塑料开工率下降至87%左右， 目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月2日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.68个百分点至41.15%，农膜逐 步退出旺季，农膜订单继续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小 幅上升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处 于近年同期中性水平。原油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前 该国关键石油设施未受损，且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万 至5000万桶石油，原油价格依然疲软。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE在10 月投产，70万吨/年的中石油广西石化11月投产，近日50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）投产。近期塑料 开工率略有下降。农膜逐步退出旺季，订单持续下降，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少， 北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续下跌，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足， 刚 ...

【现货方面】华北6460(+60)/05-180(+0)华东6440(+60)/05-100(+0)华南6650(+120)/05+10(+60) 【供需库存数据】 库存：截止1月6日，社库累0.97万吨 【观点】上游厂商持续挺价，现货价格随盘面跟涨70-100元/吨，华北基差维持05合约贴水180元/吨区 间，代理渠道出货尚可，套保较昨日清淡。传闻引发供应收缩预期("石脑油流通环节征收消费税")，若 政策落地，裂解装置成本压力将加剧，叠加部分全密度装置转产HDPE，标品(LLDPE)边际供应缩减预 期强化。情绪端，补空需求与产业买货共振，现货正反馈加速价格上行，短期易涨难跌格局延续，需关 注政策落地节奏及下游对高价货源接受度。 【策略】短期多2605 供应：产能利用率83.39%(+0.04%)。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views The report offers insights into the trends and outlooks of various commodities in the futures market on January 8, 2026. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of each commodity, providing investment suggestions and trend intensities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe-haven sentiment has rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [5][6]. - **Silver**: Prices have corrected from high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed. The trend intensity is 0 [9]. - **Zinc**: Prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. The trend intensity is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have retreated after reaching highs. The trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Prices have slightly declined. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Alumina**: Prices are oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Platinum**: Prices are oscillating to find a direction. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: Prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a tug - of - war between real - world pressure and the narrative of a cyclical shift, with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging, and the market is mainly focused on Indonesia's policies. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and market sentiment changes should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With silicon material production cuts, short positions can be established on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is significantly affected by news. The trend intensity is - 1 [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are fluctuating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Coke**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [52]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [53]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [56]. - **Para - Xylene**: Spot supply is sufficient, and prices are under short - term pressure, with a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **PTA**: Prices are in a high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still medium - term pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are trending strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [72]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products continues to decline, and the basis is weakly stable. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **PP**: Macroeconomic sentiment is boosting, but fundamental improvements are limited. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [80]. - **Pulp**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [85]. - **Glass**: The prices of raw sheets are stable. The trend intensity is 0 [90]. - **Methanol**: Prices are oscillating and falling. The trend intensity is 0 [94]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [114]. - **PVC**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [122]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are oscillating in a narrow range, and there is still support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility is decreasing, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are mainly oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [148]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are rebounding within a range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities between months. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [166]. - **Cotton**: Prices are fluctuating with the overall market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [170]. - **Egg**: Sentiment for the far - month contracts is weakening. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Live Pig**: There is negative feedback in demand. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanut**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [186]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The freight rate peak has emerged; for the 02 contract, wait and see, and for the 04 contract, short on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [128].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 8 日 LLDPE：标品排产继续回落，基差弱稳 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6642 | 0.96% | 662494 | -2207 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -162 | | -179 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -45 | | -39 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6480 | | 6400 | | | | 华 东 | 6550 | | 6450 | | | | 华 南 | 6550 | | 6490 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 8 日 PP：宏观情绪提振，基本面改善有限 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2605 | 6486 | 0.98% | 595337 | -1191 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -206 | | -203 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -54 | | -36 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 华 北 | 6250 | | 6190 | | | | 华 东 | 6280 | | 6220 | | | | 华 南 | 6330 | | 6300 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 盘面偏强，部分套盘资源无法解套，现 ...