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IEA发布中期石油展望报告:石化业将成全球石油需求增长主引擎
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-07-07 02:55
Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2030, petrochemical demand will account for 24% of total oil demand, up from 22% in 2024 and 20% in 2019, with the petrochemical industry becoming the main driver of global oil demand growth starting in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Petrochemical Demand Growth - From 2019 to 2024, the consumption of petrochemical feedstocks derived from oil is estimated to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day, representing over 95% of the net growth in oil demand [1] - The IEA anticipates an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.1% in oil consumption as petrochemical feedstocks from 2024 to 2030 [1] - The demand for LPG/ethane and naphtha in China is expected to grow at rates of 2.5% and 4.6% per year, respectively, leading to an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day in petrochemical feedstock demand from 2024 to 2030 [1] Group 2: NGLs Supply and Demand - Global NGLs production is projected to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 10.1 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly half of the total growth in global oil production [3] - The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Canada currently dominate NGLs supply, holding 84% of the market share, which is expected to rise to 88% by 2030 [3] - U.S. NGLs production is forecasted to grow from 6.9 million barrels per day in 2024 to 7.8 million barrels per day by 2030 [3] Group 3: LPG and Refining Industry Impact - From 2024 to 2030, total LPG consumption is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day, reaching 11.8 million barrels per day, primarily driven by rising petrochemical demand [4] - The report indicates that the refining capacity has significantly exceeded the demand for refined products expected by 2030, potentially leading to more refinery closures [4] - Petrochemical products used for plastics and synthetic fibers are projected to account for approximately 75% of the net growth in global oil demand in 2024, with their share of total oil consumption rising from 15.8% to 17.4% by 2030 [4] Group 4: Overall Oil Demand and Supply Outlook - Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, reaching a stable level of approximately 105.5 million barrels per day by 2030 [4] - During the same period, global oil production capacity is projected to increase by over 5 million barrels per day, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day [4] - The annual growth rate of oil demand is expected to slow from approximately 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 to minimal growth in the following years [4]