Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 2% and WTI crude oil dropping over 2% during trading [3][4]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss further increasing oil production at an upcoming meeting, with eight member countries participating. This move aims to regain market share [6]. - If the production increase plan is implemented, OPEC+'s crude oil output could account for about half of global supply, potentially lifting the current reduction measures of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, which represents 1.6% of global oil demand [6]. - OPEC+ had previously agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional 300,000 barrels per day allocated to the UAE. However, actual production increases have not met these commitments due to various member countries needing to compensate for previous overproduction and capacity constraints [6]. Group 2: Oil Demand Forecasts - OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2026, predicting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day. The 2025 demand forecast remains unchanged, with an expected increase of 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day [7][8]. - The upward revision in demand expectations is attributed to improved economic growth forecasts in certain regions, including the OECD, the Middle East, and Africa [8]. Group 3: Future Oil Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oversupply of oil next year, Brent crude oil prices could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026. The firm expects a daily oversupply of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels [9]. - It is noted that one-third of the accumulated inventory will be stored in OECD countries, which are also expected to experience a decline in oil demand, further pressuring oil prices [9]. - While oil prices may remain stable near current forward contract levels in 2025, this balance is expected to break in 2026, with Brent's "fair value" projected to decrease from the current $70 range to the $50 range [9].

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | | | | SC：元/桶 | ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Secretary indicated that increasing demand is expected to drive up oil prices [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights a direct correlation between rising demand and oil price increases [1]

Group 1 - OPEC indicates that despite trade conflicts, the global economy may perform better than expected in the second half of the year, with high crude processing levels at refineries to meet summer travel demand [2][3] - OPEC maintains its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, citing robust economic prospects, particularly in India, China, and Brazil, while the US and Eurozone are recovering from last year's lows [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the first acceleration in production after oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions [3][6] Group 2 - In June, global refinery crude processing increased significantly by 2.1 million barrels per day compared to May, indicating a stronger oil market as refineries concluded maintenance [3][5] - OPEC expects refinery processing levels, especially in the US, to remain high to meet seasonal demand for transportation fuels [4] - OPEC+ reported a June production level of 41.56 million barrels per day, an increase of 349,000 barrels from May, although this was slightly below the required increase of 411,000 barrels per day [7]

Demand Forecast - IEA lowers 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 722 thousand barrels per day, down from 739 thousand barrels per day [1] - IEA lowers 2023 global oil demand growth forecast to 704 thousand barrels per day, a decrease from 724 thousand barrels per day, marking the lowest growth since 2009 excluding the pandemic [1] Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply is expected to increase to 2100 thousand barrels per day in 2023, up from the previous forecast of 1800 thousand barrels per day, driven by OPEC+ production increases [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of Saudi Aramco expects global oil demand to increase by 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day this year [1]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2030, petrochemical demand will account for 24% of total oil demand, up from 22% in 2024 and 20% in 2019, with the petrochemical industry becoming the main driver of global oil demand growth starting in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Petrochemical Demand Growth - From 2019 to 2024, the consumption of petrochemical feedstocks derived from oil is estimated to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day, representing over 95% of the net growth in oil demand [1] - The IEA anticipates an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.1% in oil consumption as petrochemical feedstocks from 2024 to 2030 [1] - The demand for LPG/ethane and naphtha in China is expected to grow at rates of 2.5% and 4.6% per year, respectively, leading to an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day in petrochemical feedstock demand from 2024 to 2030 [1] Group 2: NGLs Supply and Demand - Global NGLs production is projected to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 10.1 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly half of the total growth in global oil production [3] - The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Canada currently dominate NGLs supply, holding 84% of the market share, which is expected to rise to 88% by 2030 [3] - U.S. NGLs production is forecasted to grow from 6.9 million barrels per day in 2024 to 7.8 million barrels per day by 2030 [3] Group 3: LPG and Refining Industry Impact - From 2024 to 2030, total LPG consumption is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day, reaching 11.8 million barrels per day, primarily driven by rising petrochemical demand [4] - The report indicates that the refining capacity has significantly exceeded the demand for refined products expected by 2030, potentially leading to more refinery closures [4] - Petrochemical products used for plastics and synthetic fibers are projected to account for approximately 75% of the net growth in global oil demand in 2024, with their share of total oil consumption rising from 15.8% to 17.4% by 2030 [4] Group 4: Overall Oil Demand and Supply Outlook - Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, reaching a stable level of approximately 105.5 million barrels per day by 2030 [4] - During the same period, global oil production capacity is projected to increase by over 5 million barrels per day, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day [4] - The annual growth rate of oil demand is expected to slow from approximately 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 to minimal growth in the following years [4]

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report indicates that the global oil supply is expected to grow significantly, driven by production expansions in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., with an increase of 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, reaching 114.7 million bpd, which far exceeds the anticipated demand growth of 2.5 million bpd [1] - The report highlights that geopolitical risks are a major concern for oil supply security, despite the forecast of sufficient supply in the coming years [1] - Global oil production capacity is projected to increase by 1.8 million bpd, primarily from the UAE and Iraq, while global natural gas liquids production is expected to rise by 2.3 million bpd, accounting for nearly 50% of the increase in global oil capacity [1] Group 2 - The report predicts that from 2024 to 2030, global oil demand will grow by 2.5 million bpd, but the growth rate will decline annually due to slowing economic growth and the acceleration of electric alternatives in the transportation sector [2] - The shift towards diversified fuels in transportation and power generation is expected to impact oil demand, with the petrochemical industry becoming the main driver of oil demand growth starting in 2026 [2] - By 2030, global polymer and synthetic fiber production is projected to consume 18.4 million bpd of oil, representing over one-sixth of global oil consumption [2] Group 3 - Emerging economies are expected to see strong demand growth, contrasting with the declining demand in developed economies, particularly in OECD countries, where oil consumption is projected to decrease by 1.7 million bpd by 2030 [3] - The report notes that falling oil prices will suppress upstream capacity expansion, with upstream investment expected to decline to approximately $420 billion in 2025, a decrease of 6% [3] - The refining sector is anticipated to face challenges due to weak growth in refined product demand, with global demand expected to peak at 86.3 million bpd in 2027, only increasing by 710,000 bpd from 2024 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflict trading is expected to be a short - term market trend before a substantial supply disruption occurs. Oil prices may maintain a certain risk premium in the third quarter. In the medium - and long - term, the idle capacity to mitigate supply disruption risks is mainly concentrated in OPEC+. The demand side's support for oil prices is expected to be limited. The downward economic growth trend and structural changes in oil consumption restrict the medium - and long - term demand growth space. In the second half of the year, pricing drivers are expected to come more from the supply side. Without geopolitical conflict disturbances, the pattern of stronger supply elasticity will still suppress the rebound space of oil prices. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 80 per barrel. If a substantial supply disruption occurs due to geopolitical conflicts, it will bring significant upward risks to oil prices [5][113] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 1H25 Oil Price Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, the average Brent oil price was around $71 per barrel, a decrease of about 7% compared to the second half of last year. In the second quarter, the implied volatility of oil prices rose significantly twice in April and June. In early April, the US announced a reciprocal tariff policy, and OPEC+ unexpectedly accelerated production growth, causing oil prices to drop nearly $15 per barrel in a short time. Brent twice fell below $60 per barrel, hitting a four - year low. In June, Israel's sudden air strike on Iran led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The SC crude oil futures in Shanghai outperformed Brent due to geopolitical conflicts [17] 2. Geopolitical Conflict Risks Rise and Fall Sharply, Testing Global Supply Stability 2.1. The Iran - Israel Conflict Re - triggers Market Concerns about the Navigation Safety of the "Oil Choke Point" - The Iran - Israel conflict on June 13 led to a sharp rise in geopolitical conflict risks and a significant increase in oil prices. Iran's current oil production and exports are at a high level. Sanctions may affect Iran's supply in the long term, and the US may further upgrade sanctions. The passage interruption risk of the Strait of Hormuz is more likely to cause market panic. The trade flow of crude oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 27% of the global total. Only a few countries have pipelines to bypass it. Geopolitical conflicts also affect the pricing differences of oil prices in different regions and the crack spread of petroleum products [21][22][25][27][32] 2.2. Venezuela's Supply Declines Marginally, and Russia's Supply Remains Stable - Chevron's operating license in Venezuela expired on May 27. Venezuela's crude oil production and exports have declined. Russia's crude oil exports in the first five months averaged about 3.35 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 250,000 barrels per day. Currently, Russia's supply remains stable [39][42] 3. OPEC+ Production Policy Tends to Maintain Market Share - Eight OPEC+ member countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. OPEC+ production has rebounded since April but is less than the agreed - upon increase target. The main purpose of increasing production is to maintain market share. Most countries have a certain scale of theoretical idle capacity. Kazakhstan's over - production has led to an increased risk of it exiting OPEC+ [44][45][46][51] 4. Non - OPEC+ Supply: US Production Growth Potential is Constrained, and Offshore Production will Contribute the Main Increment 4.1. The Negative Impact of Falling Oil Prices on US Shale Oil Production Growth is Apparent - US crude oil production growth has slowed down. The decline in oil prices has significantly inhibited the capital expenditure willingness of US upstream producers. The number of oil rigs and fracturing equipment has decreased, and the free cash flow of listed shale oil producers has deteriorated. The negative impact of low oil prices on shale oil supply growth has begun to appear [55][61][62][63] 4.2. Conventional Offshore Oilfield Projects are Expected to Contribute Most of the Non - OPEC+ Increment - From now until the end of 2026, global offshore oilfield projects are in a capacity release cycle. Brazil, Guyana, and the US offshore are expected to contribute the main increments. Brazil's production is expected to increase to around 3.9 million barrels per day. Guyana's full - load production is expected to approach 1 million barrels per day. The US Gulf of Mexico's offshore oil production is expected to remain around 1.8 million barrels per day. Canada's future production growth is limited [69][72][75][76] 5. The Expectation of Slowing Economic Growth and Consumption Structure Transformation Restrict the Demand Growth Space 5.1. China's Refinery Operating Rates Continue to Differentiate, and Processing Volume Growth is Weak - China's industrial crude oil processing volume from January to May increased by 0.3% year - on - year. The operating rates of different types of refineries in China are differentiated. The production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene has decreased, and the proportion of kerosene in exports has increased. China's crude oil imports have increased slightly, and inventories have risen [81][82][86][88] 5.2. Global Crude Oil Inventories Rise, and Refined Oil Inventories Remain at a Low Level - The processing volumes of major global refining regions have shown mixed trends. Global crude oil inventories have risen, with non - OECD countries, especially China, contributing to the increase. Refined oil inventories in Europe and the US are still at a low level. Diesel demand improvement needs to be further verified, and gasoline demand shows a structural change [93][96][98][99] 5.3. Multiple Factors Restrict the Global Demand Outlook - The three major institutions have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025. The long - term structural changes in oil consumption, such as the increase in new energy vehicle penetration and the continuation of the home - office model, restrict the growth of oil demand [106][109] 6. Investment Recommendations - Geopolitical conflict trading is expected to be short - term before a substantial supply disruption. In the third quarter, oil prices may maintain a risk premium. In the second half of the year, pricing is more driven by the supply side. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 80 per barrel. A substantial supply disruption due to geopolitical conflicts will bring significant upward risks to oil prices [113]

Core Viewpoint - The Secretary General of OPEC stated that oil demand continues to grow, indicating a positive outlook for the oil industry [1] Industry Summary - Oil demand is projected to increase, suggesting a robust market environment for oil producers [1] - The ongoing growth in oil demand may lead to higher prices and increased investment opportunities within the sector [1]