石油需求增长

Search documents
建信期货原油日报-20250807
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:44
行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | | | | SC:元/桶 | ...
美国能源部长:需求增长将推高油价。
news flash· 2025-07-15 15:26
Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Secretary indicated that increasing demand is expected to drive up oil prices [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights a direct correlation between rising demand and oil price increases [1]
欧佩克:全球经济下半年表现或超预期
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-15 14:23
Group 1 - OPEC indicates that despite trade conflicts, the global economy may perform better than expected in the second half of the year, with high crude processing levels at refineries to meet summer travel demand [2][3] - OPEC maintains its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, citing robust economic prospects, particularly in India, China, and Brazil, while the US and Eurozone are recovering from last year's lows [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the first acceleration in production after oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions [3][6] Group 2 - In June, global refinery crude processing increased significantly by 2.1 million barrels per day compared to May, indicating a stronger oil market as refineries concluded maintenance [3][5] - OPEC expects refinery processing levels, especially in the US, to remain high to meet seasonal demand for transportation fuels [4] - OPEC+ reported a June production level of 41.56 million barrels per day, an increase of 349,000 barrels from May, although this was slightly below the required increase of 411,000 barrels per day [7]
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-07-11 08:21
Demand Forecast - IEA lowers 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 722 thousand barrels per day, down from 739 thousand barrels per day [1] - IEA lowers 2023 global oil demand growth forecast to 704 thousand barrels per day, a decrease from 724 thousand barrels per day, marking the lowest growth since 2009 excluding the pandemic [1] Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply is expected to increase to 2100 thousand barrels per day in 2023, up from the previous forecast of 1800 thousand barrels per day, driven by OPEC+ production increases [1]
沙特阿美首席执行官:预计今年全球石油需求将增加120万至130万桶/日。
news flash· 2025-07-09 16:35
Group 1 - The CEO of Saudi Aramco expects global oil demand to increase by 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day this year [1]
IEA发布中期石油展望报告:石化业将成全球石油需求增长主引擎
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-07-07 02:55
Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2030, petrochemical demand will account for 24% of total oil demand, up from 22% in 2024 and 20% in 2019, with the petrochemical industry becoming the main driver of global oil demand growth starting in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Petrochemical Demand Growth - From 2019 to 2024, the consumption of petrochemical feedstocks derived from oil is estimated to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day, representing over 95% of the net growth in oil demand [1] - The IEA anticipates an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.1% in oil consumption as petrochemical feedstocks from 2024 to 2030 [1] - The demand for LPG/ethane and naphtha in China is expected to grow at rates of 2.5% and 4.6% per year, respectively, leading to an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day in petrochemical feedstock demand from 2024 to 2030 [1] Group 2: NGLs Supply and Demand - Global NGLs production is projected to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 10.1 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly half of the total growth in global oil production [3] - The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Canada currently dominate NGLs supply, holding 84% of the market share, which is expected to rise to 88% by 2030 [3] - U.S. NGLs production is forecasted to grow from 6.9 million barrels per day in 2024 to 7.8 million barrels per day by 2030 [3] Group 3: LPG and Refining Industry Impact - From 2024 to 2030, total LPG consumption is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day, reaching 11.8 million barrels per day, primarily driven by rising petrochemical demand [4] - The report indicates that the refining capacity has significantly exceeded the demand for refined products expected by 2030, potentially leading to more refinery closures [4] - Petrochemical products used for plastics and synthetic fibers are projected to account for approximately 75% of the net growth in global oil demand in 2024, with their share of total oil consumption rising from 15.8% to 17.4% by 2030 [4] Group 4: Overall Oil Demand and Supply Outlook - Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, reaching a stable level of approximately 105.5 million barrels per day by 2030 [4] - During the same period, global oil production capacity is projected to increase by over 5 million barrels per day, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day [4] - The annual growth rate of oil demand is expected to slow from approximately 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 to minimal growth in the following years [4]
国际能源署最新报告预计:全球石油市场未来几年供应充足
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-29 22:06
Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report indicates that the global oil supply is expected to grow significantly, driven by production expansions in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., with an increase of 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, reaching 114.7 million bpd, which far exceeds the anticipated demand growth of 2.5 million bpd [1] - The report highlights that geopolitical risks are a major concern for oil supply security, despite the forecast of sufficient supply in the coming years [1] - Global oil production capacity is projected to increase by 1.8 million bpd, primarily from the UAE and Iraq, while global natural gas liquids production is expected to rise by 2.3 million bpd, accounting for nearly 50% of the increase in global oil capacity [1] Group 2 - The report predicts that from 2024 to 2030, global oil demand will grow by 2.5 million bpd, but the growth rate will decline annually due to slowing economic growth and the acceleration of electric alternatives in the transportation sector [2] - The shift towards diversified fuels in transportation and power generation is expected to impact oil demand, with the petrochemical industry becoming the main driver of oil demand growth starting in 2026 [2] - By 2030, global polymer and synthetic fiber production is projected to consume 18.4 million bpd of oil, representing over one-sixth of global oil consumption [2] Group 3 - Emerging economies are expected to see strong demand growth, contrasting with the declining demand in developed economies, particularly in OECD countries, where oil consumption is projected to decrease by 1.7 million bpd by 2030 [3] - The report notes that falling oil prices will suppress upstream capacity expansion, with upstream investment expected to decline to approximately $420 billion in 2025, a decrease of 6% [3] - The refining sector is anticipated to face challenges due to weak growth in refined product demand, with global demand expected to peak at 86.3 million bpd in 2027, only increasing by 710,000 bpd from 2024 [3]
供应主导定价,需求遭遇瓶颈
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 09:11
★投资建议 半年度报告——原油 供应主导定价,需求遭遇瓶颈 | [T走ab势le_评R级an:k] | 原油:震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期: | 2025 6 | 年 | 月 | 25 | 日 | [★Ta地bl缘e_冲Su突mm风a险ry]骤升骤降,测试全球供应稳定性 能 中东地区伊朗出口能力和霍尔木兹海峡航运安全将是影响风险 溢价的关键所在。霍尔木兹海峡通航的原油和石油产品贸易流占 全球总量的 27%,仅有沙特和阿联酋拥有可避开该海峡出口的管 道,但无法完全调节通过该海峡的贸易流,供应不稳定上升将提 升油价的风险溢价水平。中东地区也是重要的柴油出口地,俄乌 冲突之后的贸易流重置以及中东地区近两年的炼能扩张使得中 东对苏伊士运河以西市场尤为重要。 源 ★OPEC+倾向于维护市场份额,海上贡献非 OPEC+主要增量 与 碳 中 和 4-5 月 OPEC+实际增产规模不及约定增产规模,目前超产集中于 哈萨克斯坦。维护市场份额和中东断供风险会更有利于 OPEC+ 维持增产策略。南美海上油田项目处于集中投产期将带来非 OPEC+较 ...
欧佩克秘书长:石油需求持续增长。
news flash· 2025-06-19 12:31
Core Viewpoint - The Secretary General of OPEC stated that oil demand continues to grow, indicating a positive outlook for the oil industry [1] Industry Summary - Oil demand is projected to increase, suggesting a robust market environment for oil producers [1] - The ongoing growth in oil demand may lead to higher prices and increased investment opportunities within the sector [1]
原油:日度级别回调,多单、正套轻仓持有-20250611
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 01:17
2025 年 6 月 11 日 原油:日度级别回调,多单、正套轻仓持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI7 月收跌 0.31 美元/桶,跌幅 0.47%,报 64.98 美元/桶;布伦特 8 月原油期货收跌 0.17 美 元/桶,涨幅 0.25%,报 66.87 美元/桶;SC2507 原油期货收涨 2.60 元/桶,涨幅 0.54%,报 481.50 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 1. 金十数据 6 月 10 日讯,伊朗最高国家安全委员会 9 日发表声明说,若伊朗遭以色列袭击,以 色列的秘密核设施将成为伊朗的打击目标。伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社当天援引伊朗最高国家安 全委员会的声明报道说,经过数月努力,伊朗已取得"重大情报成果",获取了大量以色列的 数据和文件,其中包括与其核计划及设施相关的资料。声明说,伊朗武装部队已构建相应的作 战能力,使伊朗能在以方袭击伊朗核设施时立即打击以方秘密核设施,或就以方对伊朗经济、 军事基础设施的任何侵犯实施"精准对等反制"。 2. 伊朗议会安全 ...