Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains its Q4 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast at $59 per barrel and $56 per barrel for 2026, citing supply shortfalls, particularly from Russia, and reduced idle capacity as key factors [1] - The firm highlights upward risks to oil demand, projecting an increase of 600,000 barrels per day in global oil consumption in 2025 and 1 million barrels per day in 2026, driven by strong demand in China, resilient global economic activity, and further depreciation of the dollar [1] - While Goldman Sachs views the risks to the 2025 price forecast as balanced, it identifies downside risks for 2026, including the potential lifting of a second round of production cuts by OPEC+ amounting to 1.65 million barrels per day and a rising probability of a U.S. economic recession, estimated at 30% by analysts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), projecting a decrease in Brent crude oil prices and U.S. oil production for the coming years [1] Price Projections - The EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will be $66 per barrel in 2025, down from a previous estimate of $68 per barrel [1] - For 2026, the projected price is $59 per barrel, revised from an earlier estimate of $61 per barrel [1] U.S. Oil Production Projections - The EIA anticipates U.S. oil production to reach 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025, a decrease from the prior estimate of 13.5 million barrels per day [1] - For 2026, the expected production is 13.5 million barrels per day, down from a previous forecast of 13.6 million barrels per day [1] Upcoming Reports - The next STEO report is scheduled for release on June 10 [1]