Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices - The recent escalation in the Middle East, including Israel's bombing in Qatar and Russia's drone activity in Poland, has raised geopolitical concerns, yet oil prices remain stable within a range of $60 to $70 per barrel [3][4][10] - Despite geopolitical tensions, there have been no significant supply disruptions, which contributes to the stability of oil prices [4][12] OPEC's Role and Market Fundamentals - OPEC's voluntary cuts earlier in the summer have helped stabilize oil prices, preventing a market crash [5][6] - The demand side shows weak growth, particularly in China, which is compounded by economic issues and tariffs, leading to a lack of booming demand [6][10] Spare Capacity and Future Risks - Spare capacity acts as a cushion against geopolitical tensions, but increasing OPEC production could thin this capacity, raising the risk of price spikes in the future [7][8][9] - Secondary sanctions on Russia and Iran could impact supply and, combined with reduced spare capacity, may lead to upward pressure on oil prices [10][12]