Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The monomer market of naphtha is suffering severe losses, and naphtha is facing negative feedback from downstream. The supply of naphtha is affected by OPEC's production increase, seasonal decline, and sanctions on Russian refineries. The demand is weakened due to deepening losses in Asian ethylene cracking and propane substitution. The short - term rebound of naphtha is limited [8]. - The price of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil has a retracement, with LU showing obvious strength. High - sulfur fuel oil may face supply changes after refinery maintenance ends, and low - sulfur fuel oil may see a shift in the supply - demand balance due to quota adjustments [147]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Naphtha Part - **Price and Spot**: A large amount of arbitrage goods from Europe and the US flowed into Asia in November (265 tons), and the volume in December is similar. The demand in Asia is temporarily stable in November but is expected to decline in December. The naphtha Premium has a slight weekly increase, and the East - West spread has shrunk month - on - month but is at a high level year - on - year [11][13][15]. - **Global Gasoline Situation**: Global gasoline prices are in a strong and volatile state, with cracking spreads at a three - year high. US gasoline cracking spreads have risen and then fallen. US refinery operations have unexpectedly decreased, leading to a rapid increase in refined oil prices. Asian refined oil remains strong due to reduced Chinese gasoline export quotas [17][22]. - **Gasoline - Naphtha Spread**: The near - term gasoline - naphtha spread has strengthened globally, especially in Europe and the US, while remaining stable in Asia. The global gasoline cracking spread has strengthened, providing room for naphtha blending [28][34]. - **Main Product Yield**: In October, the yield of main - product gasoline and diesel decreased slightly, the chemical yield increased slightly, but the pure benzene yield decreased [37]. - **Naphtha Downstream Prices**: Aromatic prices rebounded slightly this week, while olefin monomer prices continued to weaken, and butadiene prices dropped significantly, with ethylene cracking profits at an extreme loss [39]. - **Global Naphtha Cracking**: Naphtha cracking rebounded slightly this week. Due to sanctions on Russian energy companies, the supply - demand outlook for Asian naphtha has strengthened [42]. - **Global Cracking Profits**: Crude oil prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Domestic ethylene prices stopped falling, while US - dollar - denominated ethylene prices remained weak. Ethylene cracking profits continued to be severely compressed, and propane has a substitution advantage but cannot reverse the losses of cracking units [48]. - **Asian Propane Situation**: Propane discounts remained low and stable this week. The FEI - MB spread decreased slightly month - on - month. As PDH losses deepened, some PDH units were shut down [55]. - **Global Reforming Profits**: Overall gasoline reforming profits remained high this week, while aromatic reforming profits were relatively low [56]. - **Global Refinery Profits**: Overseas refinery gross margins increased significantly this week. Domestic refinery margins increased slightly compared to the main - refinery level, while local refinery margins continued to decline [61]. - **Balance Sheet - Supply**: The supply of naphtha is affected by factors such as refinery attacks in Russia, seasonal decline in Middle - East exports, and high - level East - West arbitrage. The supply from Russia may decrease in December [62][82]. - **Balance Sheet - Demand**: China's naphtha import demand has increased month - on - month and will remain stable. Naphtha is less economical than LPG, and Asian cracking units are using LPG as a substitute feedstock. Propane's seasonal strength over naphtha is difficult to achieve in the fourth quarter [82]. - **Inventory Change Forecast**: The balance gap in the naphtha market has decreased month - on - month. There is a significant surplus in Asia from October to November, and the inventory will start to decline in December, but the decline is not large. Japanese refinery operations remained stable this week, Asian refinery profits increased, and Singapore's naphtha inventory decreased slightly [85][86]. - **Logistics Trends**: The recent decline in Russian naphtha shipments is not obvious, and the East - West arbitrage logistics volume remains high [91]. Ethylene Part - **Global Capacity Distribution**: In 2025, the growth of global ethylene cracking capacity is mainly concentrated in China, while the capacity in other regions remains basically unchanged [96]. - **Global Logistics**: Asia is the main pricing area. Asia has both exports (from Japan and South Korea) and imports (China and Chinese Taipei). There are also shipping routes from the US to Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, and Europe has net exports [98]. - **Price and Spot**: Asian US - dollar - denominated ethylene prices remained weak and stable this week, and domestic prices also continued to be weak. Derivative prices rebounded weakly, mostly oscillating at the bottom. The Northeast Asia - US Gulf spread remained high, and the arbitrage window was near opening [104]. - **Downstream Profits**: Domestic ethylene prices were weak and stable this week. Domestic derivative prices continued to oscillate at the bottom, with profits showing differentiation. Styrene had large losses, while plastics had small profits. Overseas ethylene derivatives in Europe and the US also maintained low - level profits [105][110]. - **Balance Sheet - Supply**: Asian ethylene cracking maintenance changed little this week. South Korean maintenance is concentrated in November, with some existing units reducing their loads, and the load may further decrease in December [117]. - **Domestic and Overseas Downstream Projects**: Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical are expected to be put into operation from October to November. There are new projects in domestic downstream sectors such as plastics, ethylene glycol, styrene, PVC, and EVA [119]. - **Domestic Balance Sheet**: This week, the supply of ethylene decreased while the demand increased. The downstream comprehensive operation rate increased, but the overall profit remained at a low level. Due to the late commissioning of supporting EVA units in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical, there is an oversupply pressure on domestic ethylene [121]. - **Asian Balance Sheet**: The Asian ethylene balance is affected by the domestic situation. With the increase in ethylene release from Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical, the supply - demand balance in Asia has weakened, and there is a large oversupply pressure [125]. Olefin - Aromatic Association - **Aromatic Relative Valuation**: The absolute market price rebounded slightly this week, but the aromatic valuation remained at a low level year - on - year. PX is relatively strong, while the valuations of pure benzene and toluene have reached historical lows. Overseas aromatics showed strength against gasoline, with the largest rebound in Europe [129][135]. - **Global Octane Number**: The US octane number strengthened month - on - month, while the Asian octane number remained stable this week. The Asian US - dollar - denominated disproportionation profit continued to weaken, and the US disproportionation is still in a large - scale loss [137]. - **Blending Oil Cost - effectiveness**: The MTBE - toluene spread remained stable week - on - week, and the toluene valuation is still low. The MX - toluene spread decreased week - on - week, and the PX - MX spread remained high [142]. - **South Korean Production and Inventory**: In September, the overall operation of South Korean refineries decreased slightly, the gasoline yield increased, and the aromatic yield decreased [143]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Part - **Supply**: Most refineries that have been under maintenance will end their maintenance by the end of November, which means that the external supply will gradually increase. The impact of Russian exports on the market needs to be observed [147]. - **Demand**: There is no clear information about demand changes in the report. - **Inventory**: There is no clear information about inventory changes in the report. - **Price and Spread**: The price of fuel oil has maintained a rebound trend, gradually returning to the level at the beginning of the month. The LU price has been significantly stronger than the FU price recently [147]. - **Refinery Operations**: There is information about the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including main - refineries, independent refineries, and overall refineries, but no specific analysis of their impact on fuel oil supply is provided [149]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: There are data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units, but no in - depth analysis of their impact on fuel oil supply is provided [151][154][156][157]. - **Import and Export**: There is information about domestic and global high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil import and export data, but no specific analysis of their impact on the market is provided [145].