1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, iron ore prices trended strongly. In the third quarter, global iron ore shipments contributed significant increments, with the mainstream mines' increments mainly from Brazil, while Australia's shipments were basically flat year-on-year. Non-mainstream shipments remained at a high level year-on-year and are expected to continue contributing certain increments. On the demand side, in August, infrastructure investment decreased by 5.9% year-on-year and continued to weaken rapidly month-on-month; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed significantly, failing to sustain the high growth in the first half of the year. Compared with the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak, and the recent month-on-month decline in steel demand in the manufacturing industry has suppressed the current terminal steel demand. Overseas, from January to July, the consumption of iron elements increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 9.8% year-on-year, and overseas crude steel demand remained at a relatively high level. Overall, terminal demand is weakening in China while overseas steel use maintains high growth, and the valuation of iron ore remains high among the black commodities. The year-on-year increase in domestic terminal steel demand in August may be the lowest point of the year, and the steel demand in the domestic manufacturing industry is expected to gradually recover in September. However, the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, and as market expectations fluctuate at high prices, iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels [3]. - Trading strategies: For single positions, focus on high-level hedging of spot; for arbitrage, adopt a wait-and-see approach; for options, also adopt a wait-and-see approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Core Logic**: Terminal demand is showing a pattern of weakening in China and high growth overseas. The valuation of iron ore remains high, but prices may face pressure at high levels due to the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter not being priced in by the market [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single positions - high-level hedging of spot; Arbitrage - wait-and-see; Options - wait-and-see [3] 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipments**: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.65 million tons, an increase of 0.7%/8.3 million tons year-on-year. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.62 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%/8.4 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments were 7.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%/8 million tons. In terms of the shipments of mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil, since the beginning of 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 1.4%/3.2 million tons year-on-year, BHP's by 1.5%/3.1 million tons, FMG's have increased by 4.4%/6 million tons, and VALE's by 0.1%/0.2 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines has been basically flat year-on-year. Last week, the shipments of mainstream mines in Brazil rebounded significantly as port maintenance ended and port shipments resumed. In the third quarter, most of the increments of mainstream mines came from Brazil, while Australia's shipments were basically flat year-on-year [11]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipments**: Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments has been 5.6 million tons, an increase of 4.4%/8.7 million tons year-on-year. The weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments in Australia has been 2.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%/8 million tons, and that in Brazil has been 2.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%/8.2 million tons. A $10 increase in the average of the Platts Index corresponds to an increase of about 30 - 40 million tons in non - mainstream ore production (annualized). Since the third quarter, non - mainstream ore shipments have improved, and the rapid decrease in shipments in the first half of the year has turned into an increase. In September, shipments remained at a high level year-on-year and are expected to continue contributing certain increments. Currently, the profit from non - mainstream shipments is good, and some mines may participate in hedging [13]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore decreased slightly month-on-month, and the amount of ships waiting at ports remained the same, but the steel mills replenished their stocks significantly, with the inventory increasing significantly year-on-year, resulting in a month-on-month increase of nearly 3 million tons in the total domestic inventory of imported iron ore. Since August, the total domestic inventory of iron elements has been continuously increasing, with an accumulation of about 9 million tons, mainly due to the high level of hot metal production and the decline in terminal steel demand, leading to a continuous weakening of the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore. From the perspective of supply - demand projection, hot metal production is expected to remain at a high level in September, but the growth rate may slow down. With the month-on-month improvement in the steel demand of terminal manufacturing, the port inventory of imported iron ore is expected to remain balanced [23]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic hot metal production has increased by 3.9%/7.3 million tons year-on-year, and crude steel production has increased by 4.6%/10 million tons year-on-year. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 7.1%/7 million tons year-on-year, the apparent demand for non - building materials has decreased by 0.6%/0.7 million tons year-on-year, and domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) has decreased by 3.7%/7.8 million tons year-on-year. Recently, the terminal steel inventory in China has been increasing month-on-month, while it was decreasing during the same period last year. Compared with the steel demand in the first half of the year, the steel demand in the manufacturing industry increased by more than 7% year-on-year in the first half, but has weakened relatively quickly on a month-on-month basis since the third quarter, suppressing the current terminal steel demand. In terms of infrastructure, in August, the year-on-year growth rate of large - scale infrastructure investment was - 6.4% (previous value - 1.9%), and that of small - scale infrastructure investment was - 5.9% (previous value - 5.1%), with infrastructure investment continuing to weaken rapidly month-on-month. In terms of manufacturing, in August, the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3% (previous value - 0.3%), and the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed significantly, failing to sustain the high growth in the first half of the year. The year-on-year increase in domestic terminal steel demand in August may be the lowest point of the year, and the steel demand in the domestic manufacturing industry is expected to recover on a month-on-month basis in September [29]. - **Overseas Demand**: From January to July, the consumption of overseas iron elements increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 9.8% year-on-year, and overseas crude steel demand remained at a relatively high level [29].