1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, the U.S. government shutdown and intensified China - U.S. game have increased global market risk - aversion, leading to a joint upward movement of gold, silver, and copper. The Fed has different views on future policy paths after the interest - rate cut, while China will implement moderately loose policies and proactive fiscal policies [2]. - Fundamentally, global mine - end supply disturbances have intensified, with some major mining companies lowering their annual production guidance. The growth rate of global mine - end supply this year is less than 1%, and domestic refined copper production has declined. In September, the demand growth of traditional industries in China was limited, while emerging industries maintained a steady copper - using growth rate. Domestic inventories rebounded from a low level, and global inventories continued to increase [2]. - Overall, market risk - aversion demand has increased due to the U.S. trade policy. The Fed has differences in the interest - rate cut rhythm but basically agrees on the direction. Global economic growth remains stable under the background of wide - fiscal policies. China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies are clear. With the intensification of mine - end shortages and the tightening of the domestic supply - demand balance, copper prices are expected to return to the upward channel after shock adjustments in October [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 September Copper Market Review - In September 2025, copper prices showed a strong upward trend. LME copper rose from around $9,875 to over $10,440, and SHFE copper rose from 79,500 to around 83,800. The Fed's interest - rate cut in September and supply disturbances in major mines supported copper prices. After the National Day, despite the short - term impact of China - U.S. trade frictions, copper prices rebounded quickly [7]. - In September, downstream copper - using industries faced cost pressures due to rising copper prices. The start - up rates of copper cable enterprises and air - conditioning production decreased, while the start - up rates of copper rod and copper foil enterprises in the primary processing industry rebounded. Social inventories remained low, and the spot market supply - demand structure was in a tight balance [9][10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 U.S. Government Shutdown and Recurrence of China - U.S. Trade Frictions - The U.S. government shutdown during the National Day may delay the release of important economic data, affecting the Fed's decision - making on the interest - rate cut path. China - U.S. trade frictions have recurred, increasing market risk - aversion [13]. 3.2.2 U.S. Manufacturing Downturn and Eurozone Manufacturing in Contraction - The U.S. September ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, remaining in the contraction range. New orders decreased, while production and employment showed some improvement. The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling back below the boom - bust line. Germany and France's manufacturing PMIs declined, and the eurozone's economic outlook depends on its overall economic performance [14][16]. 3.2.3 China's Central Bank to Implement Moderately Loose Policies and Industrial Profit Growth - China's central bank will implement moderately loose policies and use proactive fiscal policies to support employment and foreign trade. In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth from January to August turned positive for the first time, which is positive for copper prices [17][18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Intensified Global Mine - End Supply Disturbances and Lowered Production Expectations of Major Miners - As of the end of September, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained at a relatively low level of around - $40/ton. The growth rate of global copper concentrate supply in 2025 is expected to be less than 1%. Many major mines have encountered problems, and some major mining companies have significantly lowered their production expectations for this year and next year [21]. 3.3.2 Possible Decline in Domestic Production and Limited Release of Overseas Refined Copper Capacity - In September, China's electrolytic copper production was 1121,300 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. However, due to the 770 - document and the shortage of raw materials, domestic production in October is expected to have limited upward space. Overseas, some smelters have shut down, and the new refined copper production capacity in 2025 is limited [27][28]. 3.3.3 Marginal Decline in Refined Copper Imports and the Impact of Document 770 on Scrap Copper Enterprises - From January to August, China's imports of unforged copper and copper products increased by 2.6% year - on - year, while refined copper imports decreased by 6.4%. In September, the import window was not fully opened. Document 770 increased the negative tax rate of scrap copper rod enterprises, leading to production cuts [51][52]. 3.3.4 Continuous Increase in North American Inventories and Low - Level Rebound in Domestic Social Inventories - Since September, domestic inventories have rebounded from a low level, and global inventories have continued to increase. North American inventories are still flowing in. It is expected that global inventories will remain stable or decline slightly in October, and domestic inventories will fluctuate at a low level [53][55]. 3.3.5 Traditional Industries Entering the Peak Season and Stable Growth in Emerging Industries (Except Photovoltaic) - In the power grid investment, due to the high copper price, some projects have been postponed. The photovoltaic industry is undergoing structural adjustments, and the growth rate of wind power is expected to slow down. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the air - conditioning production in October has decreased. However, new energy vehicles have maintained a strong growth momentum, and it is expected that the refined copper consumption will recover steadily in October [61][72]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the U.S. government shutdown and China - U.S. game have increased market risk - aversion. The Fed has differences in the interest - rate cut path, and China will implement loose policies. Fundamentally, the supply side is tightening, and the demand side has limited growth in traditional industries and stable growth in emerging industries. Copper prices are expected to return to the upward channel after shock adjustments in October [77][78].