矿端供给弹性
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沪锡维持高位震荡 预计明年一季度价格在28万~33万元/吨
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-12 00:28
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is expected to experience a phase of marginal supply easing and seasonal demand pressure in 2026, with global inventories remaining low and macroeconomic conditions providing support, leading to a high-level oscillation of the Shanghai tin futures contract [1][3] - The price of the Shanghai tin futures contract reached a three-and-a-half-year high of 323,700 yuan/ton due to supply concerns from geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and expectations of macroeconomic easing [1] - The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa region is progressing, with the current mine recovery rate reaching two-thirds, and imports of tin from Myanmar are expected to rise significantly in early 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - Domestic refined tin smelting is expected to maintain stable operations in early 2026, with raw material constraints easing compared to 2025, benefiting from increased imports of tin from Myanmar [2] - The demand for tin in traditional sectors is showing signs of weakness, with the consumer electronics market not experiencing a substantial recovery, and global smartphone shipments predicted to decline by 0.9% year-on-year in 2026 [2][3] - The photovoltaic sector continues to face demand pressure, with a decrease in component production in early 2026, leading to weak demand for soldering materials [3]