锡价暴涨能否持续？ 印尼矿端供应扰动加剧了全球锡供应短缺局面，国内外锡价暴涨。印尼总统 于 9 月 29 日下令关闭 1000 个非法锡矿，并计划打击全国 80%的非法开采活动。 作为全球最大锡出口国（占全球供应 25%以上）。印尼锡供应端扰动进一步给本 就供需紧平衡状态下的锡再添恐慌性预期，预计印尼非法矿关闭可能导致四季度 全球锡矿供应缺口扩大至 8000 吨以上。印尼 8 月份锡锭出口为 3246.46 吨，环 比下降 14.39%，连续三个月下降，已经处于四年来的低位水平，后期供应端扰 动下，锡锭出口或将继续大幅下降。 另外，宏观利好也在提振有色价格。美联储 10 月降息概率达 93%，美元走弱 叠加流动性宽松预期，提振有色板块整体情绪。 缅甸方面，锡矿复产进程推进缓慢，导致中国锡矿进口维持低位。8 月份， 我国从缅甸进口锡矿只有 2091 吨，同比下降 27.72%。仅占国内总进口量的 20%。 虽然缅甸佤邦锡矿已启动复产，但因雨季、设备短缺及炸药管控，实际矿端产出 维持低位，预计产出放量兑现要到 11 月份。 海外锡矿供应复苏缓慢，国内原料供应紧张矛盾难以解决，国内冶炼厂开工 率持续走低。截止上周末 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic and international macro - optimistic expectations and partial refining tin capacity maintenance support tin prices. The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the decline in domestic tin ingot social inventory may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels [3][4]. - For spreads and inventory, due to factors such as the weakening employment supply - demand in the US and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin, as well as the spreads of LME tin contracts, are within a reasonable range, and investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities. The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased compared with last week [10][11][15]. - In terms of supply, the domestic tin ore supply is expected to be tight, the production of recycled tin in September may decrease month - on - month, the production capacity utilization rate of refined tin has declined, and the import volume of refined tin may decrease month - on - month [21][25][30]. - In terms of demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tin solder may increase month - on - month, the import volume of solder strips may decrease month - on - month while the export volume may increase, and the production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets may all decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries has slightly decreased [36][37][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin are negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10][11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week, the social inventory of tin ingots in China has increased, the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [21]. - The second beneficiation plant of the Uis mine in Namibia has been commissioned, and tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are resuming production. Alphamin Resources' tin mine in Congo is also resuming production in stages. These factors may lead to an increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [23]. - The production of recycled tin in China in September may decrease month - on - month [25]. - The production capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat). Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment, resulting in a decrease in the production of refined tin in China in September and an increase in inventory [29]. - The export volume of Indonesia in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in the import volume and a decrease in the export volume of refined tin in China in September [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to an increase in the production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in the inventory of tin solder in China in September [36]. - The import volume of solder strips in China in September may decrease month - on - month, while the export volume may increase [37]. - The production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets in China in September may all decrease month - on - month [42]. - The production capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has slightly decreased compared with last week [45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the main contract rising by 0.46% to 268,090 yuan per ton, amid slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar and weak supply-demand fundamentals [1] - The recovery of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing slowly due to seasonal rains, earthquakes, and preparation issues, leading to a delay in actual output expected until the fourth quarter [1] - The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises remains low due to tight raw material supply, with the operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces reaching 59.23% as of August 15, showing a slight month-on-month decline [1] Group 2 - Downstream orders for tin continue to decline, with the third quarter being a traditional off-season for consumption, resulting in lower orders in the home appliance sector compared to previous years [2] - The semiconductor market is expected to grow, driven by demand from AI, cloud infrastructure, and advanced consumer electronics, although some sub-segments may continue to shrink [2] - The overall demand for tin in photovoltaic solder remains weak due to a significant drop in orders following a mid-year rush for installations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated and declined. In terms of supply, the mining licenses in the Wa region of Myanmar have been approved, and preparations are underway, with significant recovery in tin ore supply expected in Q4. However, in the short term, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and some smelters are preparing for maintenance. In Jiangxi, some recycled tin enterprises have resumed production, but the subsequent output is difficult to increase due to the limited supply of scrap tin. In terms of demand, domestic consumption during the off - season remains poor, and downstream factories are cautious about restocking tin raw materials. Overseas, the demand for tin driven by AI computing power remains strong. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly this week. Overall, the short - term supply and demand are both weak, and due to the continuous resumption of production in Myanmar, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices is expected to be between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME tin prices is expected to be between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: The mining licenses in the Wa region of Myanmar have been approved, and preparations are underway, with significant recovery in tin ore supply expected in Q4. In Yunnan, raw material shortages are severe, and smelter raw material inventories are generally less than 30 days, with some enterprises preparing for maintenance. In Jiangxi, some recycled tin enterprises have ended maintenance and gradually resumed production, but the supply of scrap tin is limited, and subsequent output growth is difficult [11]. - **Import and Export**: The resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar is slow, and the supply from other regions is limited. China's tin ore imports remain at a low level. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.08%. From January to June, the total import volume of tin concentrates was 62,130 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.41% [11]. - **Demand Side**: Consumption during the off - season is poor, and downstream factory orders are generally low. After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China have declined, and the operating rate of some producers has decreased. The production schedules of home appliance enterprises in July also decreased significantly. In July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics have weak growth, and market sentiment is cautious. The demand for tin in tin - plated sheets and the chemical industry is relatively stable [11]. - **Summary**: Tin supply is at a low level, and demand is also weak. In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and due to the continuous resumption of production in Myanmar, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices is expected to be between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME tin prices is expected to be between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report provides charts of the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3), but no specific analysis content is given [18][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The report provides charts of tin import and export profits, but no specific analysis content is given [24][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of tin ingots in China and the LME inventory charts are provided. As of August 1, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major Chinese markets was 10,661 tons, an increase of 272 tons compared to last Friday [11][27]. 3.4 Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain at a low level [33]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In May, affected by raw material shortages and low processing fees, the refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [38]. - **Import and Export**: In May, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 13,448.797 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 50,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. The export of unforged non - alloy tin was 1,770 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. The import of unforged non - alloy tin was 2,076 tons, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 9,508 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [38][41]. 3.6 Demand Side - **2024 Consumption Structure**: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the increase in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption is still dominant, and the increase mainly comes from the production of photovoltaic modules and the recovery of semiconductor consumption. Overseas, the recovery of semiconductor consumption also drove the growth of tin consumption, but overall growth was slower than in China [51]. - **Semiconductor**: The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [56]. - **Photovoltaic**: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with significant production growth. In June, the component production schedule decreased significantly month - on - month [62]. - **Home Appliances**: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods, in July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [70].

Group 1 - LME inventory has decreased significantly from approximately 4,800 tons at the beginning of the year to 1,690 tons, representing a cumulative reduction of 65%, reaching a near two-year low [1] - The low inventory levels have increased the risk of short selling in LME tin, with a major holder owning 50-79% of the warehouse receipts, and concentrated long positions in the near term [1] - The LME 0-3 spot premium has expanded significantly, leading to a substantial increase in night trading for LME tin, which in turn has driven up domestic tin prices [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports saw a slight decline in June, while exports increased, with the overall import level expected to decrease due to a persistently closed import window and low profit margins [2] - The domestic supply of refined tin is under pressure, with expectations of substantial outflows of tin ore in Q4 due to the reopening of mining operations in Myanmar [2] - The consumption side is facing challenges, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is suppressing solder demand, and the electronics and automotive electronics sectors are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to weak order growth [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing weak demand and supply, leading to a fluctuating price trend. The current price of tin is reported at 261,920 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.59% [1] - Recent discussions at the Wa State conference have led to expectations of a slight recovery in tin ore supply, although the overall demand remains weak due to the off-season [1] - The resumption of mining operations in Myanmar's Wa State is limited by rising licensing fees, but some operators have obtained three-year mining licenses, which may lead to a gradual increase in shipments in the coming months [1][2] Group 2 - The smelting plants are currently holding a bullish price sentiment, while traders are cautiously entering the market, primarily focusing on essential purchases [2] - The traditional off-season for downstream demand is impacting order levels, with a decline in actual monthly demand due to reduced production in home appliances and the conclusion of solar energy installations [2] - The market is experiencing a "high inventory, low turnover" situation, with some companies forced to cut production due to insufficient scrap supply and declining processing fees, which are increasing production costs [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In June, tin prices fluctuated at high levels. The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and transportation disruptions of tin mines in southern Myanmar via Thailand are expected to reduce China's tin ore imports by 500 - 1000 tons in June, intensifying the short - term supply shortage. In the smelting sector, raw material inventories in major production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi are generally less than 30 days, and some smelting enterprises have started maintenance or gradient production cuts, further tightening refined tin supply. [11][12] - After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China declined, and the operating rates of some producers decreased. Orders in the consumer electronics and automotive electronics sectors grew weakly, and market sentiment was wait - and - see. Demand for tin in areas such as tinplate and chemicals was stable. As of June 27, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from the previous week. [11][12] - Overall, the short - term supply shortage of tin ore is obvious, and upstream enterprises have a strong sentiment of holding back sales. However, terminal demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a stalemate. It is expected that domestic tin prices will fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and LME tin prices will fluctuate in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton. [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and transportation disruptions via Thailand are expected to reduce June tin ore imports by 500 - 1000 tons. Raw material inventories in major smelting areas are low, and some enterprises have cut production. The combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is only 46.84%. [11] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, tin ore and concentrate imports were 13,448.797 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 50,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. Unwrought non - alloy tin exports were 1770 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, cumulative exports were 9584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. Unwrought non - alloy tin imports were 2076 tons, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 9508 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91%. [11] - **Demand Side**: After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China declined. Orders in consumer electronics and automotive electronics grew weakly, while demand in tinplate and chemicals was stable. In June, the production schedule for household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, an 11.5% increase from the previous year; the refrigerator production schedule was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; and the washing machine production schedule was 6.75 million units, the same as the previous year. [11] - **Conclusion**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton domestically and 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton on the LME in the short term. [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Relevant figures such as the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented, but no specific text analysis of the market situation is provided. [19][20] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Figures for tin export and import profits are shown, but no specific analysis of profit trends is provided. [25][26] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from the previous week. LME inventory remained at a low level. [11][28] 4. Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain at a low level. [34] 5. Supply Side - **Production**: Affected by raw material shortages and low processing fees, the refined tin output in May was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%. [39] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, tin ore and concentrate imports were 13,448.797 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 50,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. Unwrought non - alloy tin exports were 1770 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, cumulative exports were 9584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. Unwrought non - alloy tin imports were 2076 tons, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, cumulative imports were 9508 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91%. [42] 6. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the rise in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption dominated, and the increase was mainly from photovoltaic module production and semiconductor consumption recovery. Overseas, semiconductor consumption recovery also drove tin consumption growth, but overall growth was slower than in China, showing an internal - strong - external - weak trend. [50] - **Semiconductor**: China's semiconductor sales year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. [55] - **Photovoltaic**: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with obvious production growth. In June, the component production schedule decreased significantly month - on - month. [61] - **White Goods**: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in July 2025 was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease from the previous year. Specifically, the air conditioner production schedule was 15.8 million units, a 1.9% decrease; the refrigerator production schedule was 7.35 million units, a 2.4% decrease; and the washing machine production schedule was 6.445 million units, a 4.2% decrease. [70]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 showed a weak oscillating trend today. Despite a slight price increase, the decrease in trading volume and open interest, along with the outflow of funds, indicate that market trading is becoming lighter and short - selling power is strengthening. It is expected that the Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview and Market Review - **1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance** - The Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 showed a weak oscillating trend on June 25, 2025. The opening price was 263,200 yuan/ton, the highest was 263,800 yuan/ton, the lowest was 261,900 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 263,800 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 262,150 yuan/ton. The contract price tried to rise in the afternoon but failed to break through the resistance level of 264,000 yuan/ton and then gradually declined. The trading volume was 54,700 lots, a decrease from the previous trading day, indicating a slight decline in market trading activity. The open interest at the close was 13,100 lots [2]. - **1.2 Futures Market Data** - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract (snm) was 263,000 yuan, with a decrease of 190 yuan and a decline rate of 0.07%. Other contracts such as the Shanghai Tin weighted (sni), Shanghai Tin 2512 (sn2512), etc., also had different price changes [6]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - **2.1 Macroeconomic Policy** - The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran came into effect, reducing market risk - aversion sentiment and improving risk preference, which provided some support for commodity prices including tin [8]. - **2.2 Tracking and Interpretation of Related Data** - **Supply Side**: Tin ore supply in production areas such as Yunnan is tightening. Some smelting enterprises are considering shutdown for maintenance or slight production cuts in June. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, and the transportation of tin mines from southern Myanmar through Thailand is blocked. It is expected that the domestic tin ore imports in June will decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons, and the short - term supply shortage of domestic tin ore is obvious, which supports the tin price [9]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal enterprises have entered the seasonal off - season. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics are growing weakly, and the photovoltaic production schedule in June is declining month - on - month. As the tin price rebounds to around 260,000 yuan/ton, the downstream purchasing willingness has significantly weakened, generally adopting a "small - batch, multi - batch" purchasing strategy, which restrains the rise of tin price [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tight supply situation due to slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines, leading to a significant increase in tin prices, which reached a nearly one-month high with a rise of 1.95% to 267,270 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic tin concentrate processing fees have dropped to historical lows, nearing the cost line for smelting enterprises, resulting in squeezed profit margins and prompting some companies to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - The downstream electronics industry is entering a low season, and with current high tin prices, there is a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, contributing to weak consumption during the off-peak season [1] Group 2 - In May, China's tin ore imports increased month-on-month, with significant contributions from Africa, although the actual output from Myanmar remains low due to slow recovery, with only a few dozen tons exported from Wa State [1] - The import window for tin ingots opened briefly in late April to early May but began to close after mid-May, with some traders relying on previously locked-in prices for shipments [2] - The market outlook suggests that while supply constraints exist due to raw material shortages in Yunnan and reduced scrap tin recovery in Jiangxi, the demand side is showing significant reductions, leading to expectations of a slight oversupply and pressure on tin prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations around the 260,000 yuan per ton mark, with a slight decline of 0.07% in the main contract, closing at 263,000 yuan per ton. The market is currently in a vacuum period with strong supply realities but weak expectations, limiting the upward potential of tin prices [1] - The operating rates of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low, with a combined operating rate of only 46.84% as of last week. The processing fees for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan have dropped to historical lows, severely squeezing profit margins and forcing some enterprises to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - In Jiangxi, there is a shortage of recycled tin raw materials, with the recovery of waste tin post-Spring Festival falling below 70% of the annual average, and electronic waste supply decreasing by 30% month-on-month. This situation is exacerbated by policy uncertainties regarding recycled resources [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates reached 13,448.80 physical tons (equivalent to 6,752.11 metal tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 98.56% and a month-on-month increase of 44.70%. However, the import volume remains at historical lows, indicating a slight alleviation of domestic raw material supply shortages [2] - The main increases in imports are concentrated in Africa and South America, particularly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Bolivia. Conversely, imports from Myanmar saw a significant decline, with May figures showing a 37.13% month-on-month decrease and a 32.01% year-on-year decrease [2] - The market outlook suggests a weakening supply and demand scenario, with smelting plants facing reduced operating rates due to insufficient tin concentrate supply. Additionally, the end of the solar market's installation phase may lead to a sharp decline in orders for tin bar manufacturers, making it difficult for tin prices to exhibit a clear trend [2]