全球锡矿资源高度集中在少数几个主要产区，呈现寡头格局。核心制约在于，主要矿山面临资源品位自 然下滑与新增项目受限的双重压力，而关键产区的地缘政治风险与政策不确定性，进一步限制了供应的 有效释放。国内资源供应亦呈现集中化趋势，主要由少数头部企业主导，资源的天然稀缺性构成了长期 且坚实的成本支撑。 中游：成本挤压与效率变革 尽管中国在全球冶炼产能中占据主要地位，但持续的原料短缺导致开工率难以提升。冶炼环节正承受显 著压力：原料采购面临高价与紧缺，而成本向下游的传导存在时滞，利润空间受到挤压。这一压力正推 动行业向更高效率与更集约化的模式演进，通过技术升级与智能化改造来应对挑战，行业集中度预计将 进一步提高。 下游：需求引擎的结构性转换 今日长江现货市场锡价走势趋势 截至2025年12月19日锡价延续强势，据长江有色金属网获悉，今日长江现货市场1#锡报价为336,500- 338,500元/吨，均价337,500元/吨，较前一日上涨4,000元/吨。三日累计涨幅超5.5%，沪锡主力合约最新 收报338410元/吨，涨幅达1%触及2022年6月以来新高。当前市场由"供需紧平衡、地缘风险溢价与流动 性宽松预期"三重动力 ...

美联储降息落地，市场普遍预期美联储明年仍维持宽松政策，提振有色金属价格。基本面供应偏紧支撑 锡价走强，沪锡主力合约大幅飙升，截止收盘，主力合约收涨4.54%，报333000元/吨，盘中刷新2022年 3月末以来高位。 近期刚果（金）东部安全局势呈持续恶化态势。尽管该国总统齐塞克迪与卢旺达总统卡加梅已于12月4 日在华盛顿签署和平协议，但受武装团体未完成解除武装、矿产资源利益分配争议等因素制约，协议实 际约束力有限，且协议签署后，刚果（金）与 "M23 运动" 的交火仍未停止。刚果金锡在全球供给中占 有重要地位，2025年3月曾因冲突停产，近期当地局势再度紧张，市场对锡矿供应中断的担忧情绪显著 升温。 对于后市，新湖期货评论表示，当前供需基本面偏弱，淡季叠加价格不断走强压制消费，焊料等锡加工 企业订单下降，原材料采购积极性受挫。国内供应则总体平稳，冶炼厂运行变化不明显。国内库存上 升，不过总体不高，暂难形成明显压力。而海外低库存使得挤仓风险持续。当前价格更多受宏观情绪主 导。美国降息落地，国内政策面预期乐观，支撑锡价维持强势。 （文华综合） 与此同时，尼日利亚亦面临锡供应扰动风险。据新华社消息，尼日利亚总统提努 ...

2025年11月底，受刚果（金）地缘冲突引发的供应担忧与宏观宽松预期共振影响，沪锡主力合约价格一 度冲高至32.37万元／吨，创三年半以来新高。随着12月4日刚果（金）与卢旺达正式签署和平协议，此 前市场对非洲锡矿供应中断的担忧得到阶段性缓解。展望2026年，锡市预计呈现供应边际宽松、需求淡 季承压格局，叠加全球库存偏低与宏观环境支撑，沪锡主力合约或维持高位震荡态势。 缅甸佤邦复产持续推进，当前矿洞复产率已达三分之二。预计2026年一季度，我国自缅甸锡矿进口量将 回升至月均1000~1500金属吨，较2025年四季度显著增长。印尼Timah公司2026年目标产量大幅提升， 但该国非法矿整治持续深化，部分中小厂商因原料短缺导致供应缩减。其RKAB（年度工作计划与预 算）审批预计集中在一季度末至二季度初，具体政策落地节奏仍需重点跟踪。非洲刚果（金）进入雨季 后，陆运受阻，考虑船期影响，相关供应压力预计在2026年一季度阶段性显现。 2026年一季度，国内精炼锡冶炼端预计保持平稳运行，原料约束较2025年进一步边际缓解。受益于缅甸 锡矿进口增量补充，云南、广西等主产区冶炼厂原料库存压力减轻，开工节奏稳定，预计一季度 ...

Group 1: Market Data - The total trading volume of 12 Shanghai tin futures contracts is 264,157 lots, and the total open interest of Shanghai tin contracts is 103,486 lots. The open interest of Shanghai tin contract 2601 is 53,055 lots [5][6] Group 2: Spot Market - The closing price of today's Shanghai tin 2601 contract is 312,370 yuan/ton, the average spot price of Yangtze River spot 1 tin ingots is 309,500 yuan/ton, and the basis is -2,870 yuan/ton [7] Group 3: Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - On the supply side, the global tin ore supply constraint continues to strengthen. Geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo intensify transportation risks. The resumption of production in Myanmar is slower than expected, leading to a year-on-year sharp decline of 61.61% in imports. Indonesia's export policy shrinks the global supply. Although domestic smelters operate stably, the low processing fees for tin ore and raw material shortages restrict production capacity release, driving up the price support sentiment in the spot market [8] - On the demand side, the demand in traditional fields such as consumer electronics is weak. The operating rate of solder enterprises has declined, and they are cautious about taking delivery, which restricts the increase in spot prices. The demand in emerging fields such as AI servers and new energy vehicles is growing, supporting long-term expectations [8] - In terms of inventory, although the domestic visible inventory has slightly rebounded, it remains at a historically low level overall. Overseas inventory continues to be tight [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, supported by both tight supply and macro - positive factors, the price of Shanghai tin will maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is primarily driven by supply disruptions, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and production challenges in Myanmar, while downstream demand shows mixed performance [1][2][3]. Supply Situation - Tin prices have accelerated since mid-October, with significant contributions from supply concerns related to the DRC's Alphamin mine, which has a production capacity of 17,000 tons [2]. - The DRC accounted for 20% of China's tin ore imports from January to October 2025, raising market fears about supply stability [1]. - The mining situation in Myanmar's Wa region has been hampered by a mining ban and operational challenges, leading to slower-than-expected production recovery [2]. - Overall, domestic smelting operations have returned to high levels post-maintenance, ensuring sufficient tin ingot supply [1]. Downstream Demand - Demand for tin is currently mixed, with strong growth in AI semiconductors and a 20% increase in electric vehicles contributing positively, while demand from the photovoltaic sector and home appliances has weakened significantly [3]. - Cumulative demand from January to October has decreased by 1.38% year-on-year, with expectations of further declines in November and December [3]. - The demand for refined tin solder, which constitutes about 50% of downstream usage, has seen a recovery in operating rates, currently around 75% [3]. Price Outlook - Short-term price increases may be limited due to demand pressures and unconfirmed supply disruptions, with current volatility nearing 30, indicating a risk-reward imbalance [4]. - The primary driver of current tin price valuations is supply-side concerns, particularly regarding the DRC's political situation, which investors should monitor closely [4][5]. - The market is expected to experience high volatility, with prices likely to remain elevated but difficult to sustain significant increases in the short term [5].

04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 高价抑制下游需求， 预计锡价震荡为主 锡周报 2025/11/22 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：10月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，国内原料端供应紧缺略有缓解。根据中国海关公布的数据，10月锡矿砂及其精矿进口量11632实物 吨（折合约4938金属吨），同比下降15.74%，环比增加43.36%。其中从缅甸的进口量为2367吨（折合约861金属吨），同比下降43.64%，环 比增加1.50%；除缅甸外10月从其他国家合计进口量为9266吨（折合约4077金属吨），同比下降5.90%，环比增加57.05%。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度缓慢，出口量维持低位，云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，短期开工率持稳，但进一步上行动力不足。 江西地区则因废料显著减少，粗锡供应不 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the global tin industry, driven by resource advantages and AI technology, leading to a tight supply-demand balance that is expected to push prices upward [2]. Core Insights - The global tin industry is experiencing a new growth cycle fueled by the dual drivers of AI technology and green transformation. The demand for tin, a strategic metal, is surging in high-end manufacturing sectors such as AI chips, electric vehicles, and 5G communications, while traditional applications like solder and tin-plated boards continue to grow steadily. On the supply side, limited growth in global tin concentrate supply is due to declining ore grades, stricter environmental policies, and geopolitical factors, resulting in a sustained upward shift in tin prices [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Tin is a scarce metal with a melting point of 231.89°C, widely used in electronic soldering, food packaging, and chemical catalysis. Its abundance in the earth's crust is only 0.004%, primarily found in granite, volcanic rocks, and sedimentary metamorphic deposits [3][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global tin supply has been declining, with reserves dropping from 9.6 million tons in 2000 to 4.3 million tons in 2024. The supply is highly concentrated in a few countries, including China, Myanmar, and Australia, which face challenges such as low ore grades and declining mining yields [4][18][20]. Price Trends - The report highlights that the tin market is sensitive to supply disruptions, which can lead to significant price volatility. Historical data shows that supply disturbances have caused sharp price fluctuations, particularly during periods of reduced production in major producing countries [36][38]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a growing supply-demand gap in the coming years, driven by the explosive growth in AI PC and server markets, which significantly increases the demand for tin. The shift towards diversified import sources for China, moving away from heavy reliance on Myanmar, is also noted as a strategic response to supply chain vulnerabilities [47][42].

Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar's Wa State and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining are exacerbating the supply tightness of tin ore [1][2] - China's tin concentrate imports have been declining, with September 2025 imports at 8,714 tons, down 29.8% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year [2] - Indonesia's tin production is projected to be around 50,000 tons in 2024, accounting for approximately 16.7% of global tin concentrate production, which will further impact global supply [2] Group 2: Processing Fees and Market Conditions - The processing fees for tin concentrate in Yunnan and Jiangxi are at 12,000 yuan/ton and 8,000 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting the tight domestic supply and supporting tin prices [2] - The current processing fees are at their lowest level in nearly three years, indicating a tight supply situation [2] Group 3: Refined Tin Production - The total refined tin production from 18 domestic smelting plants was 14,044 tons in September 2025, down 18.1% month-on-month but up 16.6% year-on-year [3] - In the first nine months of 2025, these sample enterprises produced a total of 153,000 tons of refined tin, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [3] Group 4: Consumption Trends - The chemical sector accounts for about 20% of total refined tin consumption, with PVC production being a significant driver, although the real estate market's performance has been weak [4] - The soldering materials sector represents about 40% of refined tin consumption, with demand expected to rise due to the recovery of the semiconductor industry and strong performance in the automotive market [4] - In the first nine months of 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 24.05 million and 24.36 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 10.9% and 12.9% [4] Group 5: Price Outlook - Given the favorable factors in the market, tin prices are expected to break through the 285,000 yuan/ton level in the short term [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin price trend in the second half of 2025 is dominated by global supply tightness, with significant influences from Myanmar's slow recovery and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, alongside macroeconomic factors supporting price increases [1][4] - The recovery of tin production in Myanmar is expected to be the main driver for marginal supply improvement in Q4 2025, with imports from Myanmar anticipated to steadily increase, alleviating raw material inventory issues in Yunnan smelting plants [2][4] - Domestic refined tin production faced constraints due to raw material shortages, with September production dropping significantly by 34.69% to 9,770 tons, but is expected to rebound as raw material supply improves and smelting capacities are gradually released [2][3] Group 2 - The traditional consumption sectors for tin, particularly the electronics market, continue to show weak performance, with a reported 6.0% year-on-year decline in domestic mobile phone shipments in August 2025 [3] - The photovoltaic sector is also under pressure, with a 1.8% year-on-year decline in newly installed solar capacity in Q3 2025, indicating overall demand weakness [3] - The overall demand for tin is expected to remain weak, limiting the price support from the demand side, despite some growth in tin consumption from AI servers [3][4] Group 3 - The tin market in Q4 is characterized by "marginal supply improvement and continued demand weakness," with supply growth from Myanmar and Indonesia putting pressure on tin prices, while low global tin inventories and macroeconomic factors provide limited downside [4] - The Shanghai tin main contract is projected to fluctuate within the range of 270,000 to 300,000 yuan per ton, with close attention needed on the actual supply increase from Myanmar and changes in domestic and international macro policies [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, tin prices declined and adjusted. In terms of supply, the seasonal maintenance work of large - scale smelters in Yunnan was basically completed, and the smelter operating rate increased to some extent, but the overall operating level was still at a historical low. The core issue was the continuous shortage of tin ore raw material supply. Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar, had been approved, affected by the rainy season and the slow actual resumption of production, the tin ore export volume was still far below the normal level and could not effectively make up for the supply gap. In terms of demand, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers provided support for tin prices, but currently, their scale was not sufficient to fully offset the weak consumption in traditional fields. The spot market trading was light, and downstream enterprises had limited acceptance of prices above 280,000 yuan/ton, mostly choosing to make small - quantity purchases for rigid needs, and the overall market trading atmosphere was not strong. In terms of inventory, the total social inventory of tin ingots in major regions across the country this week was 7,925 tons, an increase of 141 tons from last week. In summary, the short - term tin supply remained tight, and tin prices were expected to remain stable or rebound slightly [12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar, had been approved recently, the resumption of production was slow, and it was expected that the tin ore supply would not be significantly restored until the fourth quarter. In August 2025, China's imported physical volume of tin concentrate reached 10,267 tons, the same as the previous month. The volume of imported tin concentrate from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Russia, and Bolivia had declined, but the overall volume was at a normal level, only affected by shipping factors such as the shipping schedule. The volume of imported tin ore from Myanmar had increased, and with the approval of the mining license, there were signs of short - term supply improvement. The volume of imported tin ore from other regions and countries remained at the previous level [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of production of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, was slow and difficult to increase production before November. The shortage of raw materials for smelting enterprises in Yunnan still existed. Coupled with the maintenance of a large - scale smelting enterprise in September, the operating rate in Yunnan dropped significantly this week. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap and insufficient supply of crude tin, the refined tin output continued to be at a low level. According to third - party data, it was expected that the domestic refined tin output in September would decrease by 29.89% month - on - month [12]. - Demand side: The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors downstream continued to be booming, but the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors, which accounted for the majority of demand, remained sluggish. According to the latest production scheduling report of three major white goods released by Industry Online, the total production scheduling volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September 2025 was 27.07 million units, a 7.2% decrease compared with the actual production volume in the same period last year. In the short term, with the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", downstream consumption improved marginally. In August, the operating rate of tin solder of domestic sample enterprises rebounded to 73.22%, showing a significant improvement compared with July [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content provided, only some charts are presented, including the basis of Shanghai tin main - continuous contract and the LME tin premium/discount (0 - 3) [19][20]. 3.3. Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore was generally tight, and the processing fees remained at a low level [27]. - Some charts are presented, including China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [24][26]. 3.4. Supply Side - Some charts are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [31][33][36][39]. 3.5. Demand Side - China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [45]. - Some charts are presented, including domestic computer and smartphone production, production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs, China's photovoltaic cell production and photovoltaic installation cumulative volume, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic tin apparent consumption [44][47][49][51][53][55][58]. - Tin consumption in the tinplate field continued to decline because aluminum cans had almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. PVC stabilizers were the major consumer of tin compounds, and PVC production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year [56]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - Some charts are presented, including China's social inventory and LME inventory [62].