1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment and Myanmar's accelerated resumption of production are suppressing the tin market, and downstream demand orders have not shown a significant recovery, causing tin prices to decline under pressure and fluctuate [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Aspect - The US PPI in February rose 3.4% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.0% and significantly accelerating from the previous value of 2.9%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped to 205,000, the lowest this year. Fed Chair Powell made hawkish remarks, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and raised inflation expectations. After the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the market postponed the expectation of interest rate cuts to 2027. Later, positive remarks from Israel and the US's relaxation of crude oil supply policies eased the situation, and the decline of tin prices narrowed and recovered [3] 3.2 Tin Ore - In February 2026, China's tin ore imports were 17,100 tons (equivalent to about 5,034 metal tons), a month-on-month decrease of 3.69% and a year-on-year increase of 96.04%. The cumulative imports from January to February were 35,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 88.05%. At the beginning of 2026, Myanmar's supply significantly recovered, with cumulative imports of 13,501 physical tons from January to February, a year-on-year surge of 174.96%, and the proportion quickly rebounded from 26.42% in the same period of 2025 to 38.63%. The recovery of Myanmar's supply was the main reason for the increase in total imports. Imports from sources other than Myanmar also increased simultaneously, with a cumulative 21,444 tons from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 56.79%, indicating the promotion of diversification but with a slower growth rate than Myanmar [7] 3.3 Refined Tin Production and Imports/Exports - In February 2026, China's refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.91%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday and tight raw materials, the supply of tin ore in Yunnan showed a seasonal decline in February. It is expected that domestic smelters will gradually resume production in March, and the supply is expected to gradually recover. In February, the production of recycled refined tin was 1,770 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 46.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.2%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative imports of tin ingots were 3,269 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.22%, indicating weak overall demand. In January, the imports were 1,101 tons, and in February, they were 2,168 tons (a month-on-month surge of 96.91% and a year-on-year increase of only 16%), and the jump was mainly due to the disturbance of the arrival rhythm. From January to February 2026, the exports of tin ingots were 2,819 tons, a year-on-year sharp decrease of 37.41%. In February, the exports were 1,216 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 24.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.76% [7] 3.4 Inventory - During the week, Shanghai tin fell below the key point, and the social inventory of tin ingots decreased significantly. As of March 20, the total social inventory of SMM tin ingots in three places was 10,977 tons, a decrease of 2,380 tons compared with last week's inventory data. The LME inventory decreased by 35 tons to 8,920 tons [4] 3.5 Consumption - The performance of the traditional consumption peak season was lower than expected. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The overall transaction in the spot market was first dull and then active, and there was concentrated bargain hunting when the price dropped sharply to a low level [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tin supply has marginally improved compared to before the holiday but remains constrained by raw material shortages. With pressure on both the ore and recycling ends, the release of smelting capacity is slow, and short - term supply increments are expected to be limited, keeping the tin supply in a tight pattern [11]. - Tin demand has also marginally improved, but high prices and a wait - and - see attitude are the dominant factors. Short - term consumption is likely to maintain a weak recovery pattern [11]. - Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The reference operating range for domestic main contracts is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 55,000 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In December 2025, China's imports of tin concentrates increased significantly, alleviating the shortage of raw material supply. The imported physical volume of tin concentrates was 17,637 tons, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. Imports from Africa decreased by 11.1%, from Myanmar increased by 14.3%, from Australia increased by 91.5%, and from South America increased by 118.5%. The export scale of Myanmar in February remained at a relatively high level [11]. - Supply side: This week, the tin supply side showed the characteristics of "post - holiday recovery but limited upside". After the Spring Festival and Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday lows. However, the increase is mainly a regular post - holiday recovery, not driven by improved raw materials or increased demand. Yunnan's recovery is faster, while Jiangxi's is slower. Yunnan is still affected by the tight supply of Burmese tin ore, and Jiangxi is restricted by the slow recovery of the scrap tin recycling system [11]. - Demand side: This week, the tin demand side is still in a weak recovery stage, with slow consumption recovery and strong wait - and - see sentiment. In March, the actual procurement improvement of end - users is limited. High tin prices and large price volatility have suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Traditional consumption sectors are weak, photovoltaic demand has slightly improved but the increment is not significant, and the household appliance sector has a marginal demand recovery but is still far from driving the industry into an active restocking stage [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tin spot prices fluctuate with futures, and the premium and discount remain stable [19]. 3.3 Cost Side - The average monthly domestic tin ore production fluctuates around 6,000 tons [24]. - The processing fee for tin concentrates has risen again. The processing fee for 40 - degree tin ore in Yunnan has increased from 10,000 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton, indicating a marginal relief of tin ore shortage [27]. 3.4 Supply Side - The production of domestic refined tin and recycled tin has remained basically stable. In January, domestic refined tin production was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; in February, recycled tin production was 1,770 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40% [32]. - Affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi are at relatively low levels [35]. - In December 2025, the domestic import volume of refined tin was 1,547.75 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25% [41]. 3.5 Demand Side - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales continued to rise, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [46]. - In the consumer electronics field, in December 2025, the production of PC was 31.4 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%, and the cumulative production from January to December was 348.5 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. The production of domestic smartphones in December was 126.54 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the cumulative production from January to December was 1.2695 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9% [49]. - In the white - goods field, the sales of washing machines grew rapidly, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% in 2025. The performance of other products was relatively average. The year - on - year growth rates of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs were 0.7%, 1.6%, and - 2.6% respectively. The combined sales of the four major household appliances decreased by 0.2% year - on - year [52]. - In the tin - consumption field, tin consumption in the tinplate field decreased slightly year - on - year, mainly due to the replacement of tinplate cans by aluminum cans in the beverage packaging industry. The production of PVC increased slightly year - on - year in 2025 [59]. - In December, the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises remained stable, and the apparent consumption increased slightly month - on - month [62]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - After the Spring Festival, the global visible tin inventory has steadily increased. As of March 13, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,805 tons, an increase of 555 tons compared to the same period last month [67].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the tin mining industry, focusing on supply constraints, geopolitical risks, and market dynamics affecting tin prices and production levels [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments Supply Constraints - Tin supply is constrained, with Myanmar's Wa State production recovery below expectations, achieving only 60%-70% of pre-ban capacity due to regulatory hurdles and profit-sharing issues [1][6]. - The global third-largest tin mine, Bisie in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is affected by M23 armed conflict, leading to unmet production targets for 2025 and limited growth in 2026 [1][8]. - China's tin import structure has shifted dramatically, with Myanmar's share dropping from 80% to less than 30%, while the DRC has become the largest supplier at 28% [1][10]. Profitability and Cost Pressures - Smelting profits are under pressure due to low Treatment Charges (TC), with some small to medium enterprises reducing or halting production [1][3][13]. - The cost of tin mining in Wa State has increased to 190,000-310,000 CNY per ton, with declining ore grades supporting a long-term cost increase [2][19]. Demand Dynamics - Demand is structurally diverging, with traditional sectors like construction suffering from declining sales, while emerging sectors like AI and semiconductors have not yet fully compensated for this decline [1][3][14]. - A slight global tin deficit of 5,000-7,000 tons is expected to persist through 2025-2026 [1][19]. Additional Important Insights Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical situation in the DRC remains unstable, with ongoing conflicts affecting production and supply chain stability [8][9]. - The M23 conflict has led to temporary disruptions in mining and processing activities, although the overall impact on the Bisie mine has been limited [9][10]. Regulatory Changes - The Wa State has undergone significant regulatory changes, transitioning from a complete mining ban to partial reopening and tax reforms that have altered export tax structures [5][6]. - The new tax regime has removed restrictions on export grades, allowing for higher quality exports without additional tax burdens [5]. Inventory and Market Sentiment - Domestic tin inventories are currently high due to the realization of "hidden inventories" and delivery of hedged short positions, rather than a reflection of weak demand [2][18][23]. - The market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical risks and supply chain costs, which may overshadow traditional inventory-demand relationships [23]. Future Outlook - The recovery of tin production in Myanmar and the DRC's ability to meet production targets will be critical in determining the supply-demand balance in the coming years [19]. - The potential for increased production from secondary resources (recycled tin) is limited due to economic pressures on recycling operations [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and dynamics within the tin mining industry.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - This week, the tin price rose significantly due to supply - side disturbances. Although the emerging fields such as AI servers have optimistic demand for tin, the industry is still in the post - holiday resumption transition period, and the real demand has not been effectively reflected. Considering the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is not advisable to blindly chase high. In the short term, the tin price is expected to operate in a wide range at a high level. The reference operating range for domestic main contracts is 370,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 55,000 US dollars/ton [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In December 2025, the increment of imported tin concentrates in China was obvious, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The physical quantity of imported tin concentrates was 17,637 tons, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. Imports from different regions had different changes [12] - Supply side: During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan decreased and the recovery after the festival was slow. Jiangxi was still affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output. Overall, the operating rate of domestic smelters remained stable [12] - Demand side: After the festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, but the willingness to inquire and place orders was low, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. Transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and the overall market trading was light. The global visible tin inventory increased seasonally. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with before the festival; LME tin inventory was 7,550 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the same period last month [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the spot price of tin fluctuated with the futures, and the premium and discount remained stable [19] 3. Cost Side - The monthly average domestic tin ore output fluctuated around 6,000 tons. The processing fee of tin concentrates rebounded from a low level. The processing fee of 40 - degree tin ore in Yunnan increased from 7,000 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, reflecting the marginal alleviation of tin ore shortage [24][27] 4. Supply Side - The output of domestic refined tin and recycled tin remained basically stable. In January, the output of domestic refined tin was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; the output of recycled tin was 3,320 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. Affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were at a low level. In December 2025, the import volume of domestic refined tin was 1,547.75 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25% [32][35][41] 5. Demand Side - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales continued to rise, and the global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. In terms of consumer electronics, in December, the output of domestic PC was 31.4 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 348.5 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the output of domestic smartphones was 126.54 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 1.2695 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In the white - goods sector, the sales volume of washing machines increased rapidly, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.8% in the first 12 months. Other products performed relatively average. The cumulative year - on - year increase of air conditioners was 0.7%, that of refrigerators was 1.6%, and that of color TVs decreased by 2.6%. The combined year - on - year growth rate of the four major household appliances decreased by 0.2%. In the tin - consumption fields, the tin consumption in the tinplate field decreased slightly year - on - year, and the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in 2025. In December, the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises remained stable, and the apparent consumption increased slightly month - on - month [46][49][52] 6. Supply - Demand Balance - After the Spring Festival, the global visible tin inventory level increased steadily. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with the previous Friday [67]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, industry dynamics, and financial market conditions, marking a significant revaluation of tin as a critical resource in the context of AI and renewable energy demand [1][2]. Macroeconomic Resonance - Tin price rebound is rooted in a broader narrative shift, with the US dollar index falling below 97, significantly reducing the global holding cost of tin priced in dollars [1] - Positive signals from the domestic economy, including a return to expansion in manufacturing PMI and improved logistics efficiency, have solidified the demand foundation for tin [1]. Geopolitical Concerns - Supply anxiety has been exacerbated by disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the largest source of tin imports for China, where heavy rainfall has hindered mining operations [2] - Ongoing conflicts and regulatory delays in the region, along with issues in other major tin-producing countries, have highlighted the fragility of the global tin supply chain [2]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The current tin price surge reflects unprecedented structural supply-demand imbalances, with a static reserve-to-production ratio of only 16 years indicating resource depletion risks [2] - While traditional demand is suppressed by high prices, emerging sectors like AI servers and electric vehicles are experiencing explosive growth, fundamentally altering tin's pricing logic [2]. Industry Chain Disparities - The soaring tin prices have created a split in the industry chain, with upstream miners enjoying high profits while midstream smelters and downstream processors face significant cost pressures [2] - The rising raw material costs have led to a situation where downstream companies struggle to maintain operations, with some reporting drastically reduced operating rates [2]. Investment Outlook - Market participants are advised to balance trends and risks, as macro sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties may lead to price fluctuations at high levels [3] - Investors should focus on companies with upstream resource control and high-end product capabilities, while utilizing futures for risk management or waiting for price corrections to align with supply-demand dynamics [4]. Conclusion - The current tin market dynamics reflect a transformative era driven by green energy and AI, challenging traditional resource paradigms [5] - The ongoing revaluation process, characterized by scarcity and strategic importance, will test the resilience and wisdom of all market participants [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic tin price increased by 14.95% week-on-week. The main reason is the low tin inventory and the market's optimism about the long-term tin demand in AI computing power. Speculative funds significantly increased their positions, driving up the futures price, and both futures and spot prices rose simultaneously. Although the supply side is generally stable and the social inventory has significantly rebounded, the capital game under the low inventory expectation will still dominate the tin price trend, and the tin price may fluctuate sharply at a high level in the short term [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and its concentrates in November was 15,099 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.81% and a year-on-year increase of 24.42%. Myanmar, the largest import source, imported 7,190.21 tons that month, a month-on-month increase of 203.79% and a year-on-year increase of 133.38%; the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the second-largest import source, imported 3,225.34 tons that month, a month-on-month increase of 19.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.27% [12]. - Supply side: The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at a high level, with this week's operating rate at 87.81%, basically the same as the previous period. However, restricted by the tight raw material supply, there is limited room for further improvement. Jiangxi is still affected by the insufficient supply of scrap materials, the supply of crude tin is tight, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. Overall, against the background that the raw material constraints have not been significantly alleviated, the operation of domestic smelters mainly remains stable at a high level [12]. - Demand side: Downstream consumer electronics are still in the traditional off-season, and terminal orders are weak. However, the demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers provides some support for tin solder. The overall operating rate of tin solder enterprises remains stable. Downstream solder and electronic enterprises continue the low-inventory strategy, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid needs, with limited willingness to actively replenish inventory. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - No relevant content other than graphs provided 3. Cost Side - No relevant content other than graphs provided 4. Supply Side - No relevant content other than graphs provided 5. Demand Side - The year-on-year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [43]. - No relevant content other than graphs provided 6. Supply - Demand Balance - No relevant content other than graphs provided

Summary of Tin Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview - **Global Tin Resource Distribution**: Global tin resources are unevenly distributed, with China holding 25.6% of the total reserves. Major production areas are concentrated in Yunnan, accounting for over 70% of China's total output. The global extraction ratio is approximately 14-15 years, indicating a potential resource depletion risk in the future [1][4]. - **Production Forecast**: China's tin concentrate production is expected to reach approximately 62,300 tons in 2025, with an annual total of 70,000-73,000 tons. By 2026, production may increase to 77,500 tons, driven by new projects [1][5]. - **Global Supply Contributions**: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a significant tin supplier, with production expected to stabilize at around 17,500 tons in 2025 and 18,500 tons in 2026. Peru's production is projected to grow by 3% in the first three quarters of 2025, while Bolivia faces a 20% decrease due to resource depletion [1][8]. Price Trends and Influencing Factors - **Tin Price Movements**: Tin prices are expected to show a fluctuating upward trend in 2025, particularly rising in the fourth quarter. Prices peaked at 300,000 CNY/ton early in the year but fell to below 240,000 CNY/ton by April due to production recovery news from the Wa region in Myanmar. As of January 2026, prices have reached historical highs of 430,000-440,000 CNY/ton [2]. Supply Chain Dynamics - **Import Trends**: China's tin ingot imports decreased by 2% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with net exports of 2,300 tons. The tightening of raw materials and weak demand contributed to a 2% decrease in refined tin production [3][13]. - **Processing Fees**: Tin processing fees have declined from a peak of 31,000 CNY to approximately 10,000 CNY. Some smelters are seeking to raise fees to offset costs, with new transaction prices reported between 12,000-12,500 CNY [6]. Consumption Insights - **Major Consumption Areas**: The primary consumption sectors for tin include solder (approximately 110,000-120,000 tons/year), integrated circuits, and other electronic products. However, demand for mobile phones and microcomputers has decreased, leading to an overall weak demand for electronic products [19][20]. - **Future Consumption Growth**: Global tin consumption is expected to grow by 4% in 2026, with domestic growth at around 3%. The main growth drivers are in consumer electronics and semiconductors, despite current inventory digestion phases [30]. Regional Supply Contributions - **African Supply Dynamics**: The DRC remains a key supplier, with stable production despite geopolitical challenges. Nigeria has doubled its exports to China from January to October 2025, indicating a shift in supply sources as Myanmar's resources decline [7][11]. - **South American Contributions**: Peru's production is stable, while Bolivia faces significant challenges due to resource depletion. Both countries play important roles in the South American tin supply [8]. Market Challenges and Outlook - **Smelter Operations**: Chinese smelters are experiencing reduced operating rates due to raw material shortages and low market demand, with a projected refined tin production of 174,400 tons in 2025, a 2% decrease year-on-year [14]. - **Profitability Issues**: Smelters are currently facing losses, with a reported loss of 4,000-5,000 CNY per ton of tin produced. This trend is expected to continue into 2026 [15]. - **Inventory Levels**: Both domestic and international visible inventories have increased, with domestic warehouse stocks nearing last year's peak levels [16][17]. Conclusion The tin industry is facing a complex landscape characterized by fluctuating prices, shifting supply sources, and varying demand across different sectors. The outlook for 2026 suggests a tight balance between supply and demand, with potential growth in specific consumption areas despite challenges in production and profitability.

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have surged dramatically, reaching a record high of $54,000 per ton, driven by macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and geopolitical tensions, with significant speculative trading in the futures market [1][2][3] Group 1: Macro Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with the U.S. core CPI falling to 2.6%, below market expectations, enhancing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [1] - The current low range of the dollar index (99-100) provides a supportive macro environment for metal prices, as funds shift from weakening U.S. equities to basic metals like tin [1][2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Tin is experiencing structural demand growth, particularly from the AI sector, with a projected 15% increase in tin consumption in AI-related fields by 2026, driven by the approval of exports of advanced chips to China [2] - The green energy transition is also boosting demand, with increased consumption of tin in photovoltaic applications and electric vehicles, further supported by the cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaic products in China [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Supply Factors - Geopolitical risks are a significant catalyst for the surge in tin prices, particularly due to escalating conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could reduce global tin supply by 3-5% [4] - Supply disruptions are exacerbated by slow recovery in Myanmar's production and delays in Indonesia's export quota approvals, leading to heightened market tension and low visible inventories [4][5] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - The recent price increase in tin has been largely driven by speculative trading, with the Shanghai tin futures contract seeing a cumulative increase of over 20% in three trading days and high trading volumes [3] - The current market sentiment reflects a divergence between futures and spot markets, with a cooling demand in the physical market despite strong speculative interest [5] Group 5: Industry Chain Analysis - The profit distribution within the tin industry is shifting towards upstream resource companies, while midstream and downstream sectors face pressure due to rising costs and limited price transmission to end products [6] - As the Lunar New Year approaches, many downstream companies are entering a shutdown period, which may further exacerbate short-term demand pressures [6] Group 6: Price Forecast and Investment Strategy - Short-term price movements are expected to be volatile, with a high probability of consolidation at elevated levels, as current prices reflect existing macroeconomic and demand expectations [7] - Investors are advised to approach the market cautiously, with strategies tailored to their position in the supply chain, emphasizing risk management and avoiding speculative excesses [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin price is expected to show an oscillating and upward - trending pattern. The short - term price fluctuation range is 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and if the price breaks through, the upper limit of the range may further rise to about 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investors continue to hold long positions or allocate long positions on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On January 12, 2026, the tin price soared, breaking through 315,000 yuan/ton during intraday trading and reaching a new high for the year. The main reason is the continuous supply disruptions and the further release of price elasticity under high market sentiment [3] - In Myanmar, due to the slower - than - expected explosive approval process, there will be a shortage of production raw materials and difficulties in mine production at the beginning of 2026. It is expected that the average monthly output in Myanmar at the beginning of the year will only be maintained at about 1,000 metal tons [3] - In Indonesia, due to the influence of RKAB approval, the supply in the first quarter may still be restricted. As of January 7, the trading volume of tin in the two major exchanges in Indonesia was 0 [3] - In the African region, political instability and backward infrastructure have continuously restricted tin ore production and exports, and the current risk remains high [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the tight situation of domestic tin ore supply remains unresolved, restricting the output of smelting plants. The processing fee for tin concentrate also remains at a low level. As of January 9, the processing fee (TC) for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton [4] - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative refined tin production was 18,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The single - month output in December was 1,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [4] - Under the situation of tight supply, the tin inventory has decreased recently. As of January 9, the domestic tin ingot social inventory was 478 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,042 tons. As of the end of December, the domestic tin ingot enterprise inventory was 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2,070 tons [4] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the tin ore supply continues to tighten, resulting in a short - term shortage of raw materials for smelters, low processing fees for tin concentrates, and difficulty in increasing the output of refined products [5] - In terms of demand, the United States is still in an interest - rate - cut cycle, and the expansion of the fiscal end is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices rebounded significantly due to the recovery of risk appetite in commodities, the upward resonance of the non - ferrous sector, the weak supply of refined tin caused by the reduction of scrap in Jiangxi, and the replenishment of raw material inventory by downstream tin enterprises. The tin market supply and demand maintained a tight balance, and it is expected that tin prices will likely fluctuate at a high level in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. The imports from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo showed different trends [12]. - Supply side: The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high at 87.09% this week, with limited room for further improvement due to tight raw material supply. Jiangxi was affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output [11][12]. - Demand side: Although the demand for consumer electronics entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable supported by orders from emerging fields. Downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy, and spot procurement was mainly for rigid demand [11][12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - No relevant content for summary other than the presentation of graphs about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3). 3.3. Cost Side - The presentation of graphs about China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore imports, tin concentrate prices, and tin concentrate processing fees, but no specific data analysis and summary content provided. 3.4. Supply Side - The presentation of graphs about domestic refined tin monthly production, domestic recycled tin monthly production, tin production and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin imports, and Indonesia's refined tin imports and exports, without specific data analysis and summary content. 3.5. Demand Side - China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. Graphs about the output of various downstream products such as computers, smartphones, home appliances, photovoltaic products, etc., and the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises and domestic tin apparent consumption were presented, but no specific data analysis and summary content provided [44]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The presentation of graphs about China's social inventory and LME inventory, without specific data analysis and summary content.