对话专家：锡市暗流涌动，真实缺口有多大？20260304 摘要 锡矿供应弹性不足，缅甸佤邦复产进度低于预期，复产产能仅恢复至 60%-70%，且受炸药审批及抽水利益分配掣肘，预计 2026 年末前难 有显著放量。 全球第三大锡矿刚果（金）Bisie 受 M23 武装冲突扰动，2025 年产量 未达标，2026 年增量空间仅 1,000-2000 金属吨，非洲供应链稳定性 仍存地缘风险。 中国锡矿进口结构发生剧变，缅甸占比由 80%降至不足 30%，刚果 （金）以 28%占比跃升为第一大来源国，供应多元化趋势显著但成本中 枢普遍上移。 冶炼端受 TC 低位运行挤压利润，部分中小企业已减产停产；当前 TC 上 调主因锡价上涨导致的损耗成本翻倍，并非矿端宽松，冶炼利润仍处盈 亏平衡线附近。 需求端呈现结构性背离：AI 与半导体虽提升单体耗锡量但渗透率尚低， 传统建筑领域受商品房销售下滑拖累，2025-2026 年全球预计维持 5,000-7,000 吨小幅缺口。 国内库存高企主因"隐性库存显性化"及套保空单交割，并非需求伪证； 佤邦开采成本已上移至 19-31 万元/吨，品位不可逆下滑支撑锡价长期 成本中枢。 Q& ...

供给扰动带动锡价大幅 上涨 锡周报 2026/02/28 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：12月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺有所缓解。2025年12月我国进口锡精矿实物量17637吨，折金属5191.6吨，环比增 长13.3%，同比增长40.2%。主要进口国看，非洲地区进口总量2375吨，减少11.1%；缅甸993吨，增长14.3%；澳大利亚912吨，增长91.5%； 南美地区进口总量426吨，增长118.5%。 ◆ 供给端：春节云南地区冶炼厂开工率下降，节后恢复偏慢。江西地区仍受废料供应不足影响，粗锡供应偏紧，精锡产量延续偏低水平。整体 来看，在原料约束尚未明显缓解的背景下，国内冶炼厂开工以持稳为主。 ◆ 需求端：需求方面，节后下游陆续复工，询价挂单意愿较低，客户观望情绪较为浓厚，成交以刚需为主，市场整体交投表现较淡。库存方面， 本周全球 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, industry dynamics, and financial market conditions, marking a significant revaluation of tin as a critical resource in the context of AI and renewable energy demand [1][2]. Macroeconomic Resonance - Tin price rebound is rooted in a broader narrative shift, with the US dollar index falling below 97, significantly reducing the global holding cost of tin priced in dollars [1] - Positive signals from the domestic economy, including a return to expansion in manufacturing PMI and improved logistics efficiency, have solidified the demand foundation for tin [1]. Geopolitical Concerns - Supply anxiety has been exacerbated by disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the largest source of tin imports for China, where heavy rainfall has hindered mining operations [2] - Ongoing conflicts and regulatory delays in the region, along with issues in other major tin-producing countries, have highlighted the fragility of the global tin supply chain [2]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The current tin price surge reflects unprecedented structural supply-demand imbalances, with a static reserve-to-production ratio of only 16 years indicating resource depletion risks [2] - While traditional demand is suppressed by high prices, emerging sectors like AI servers and electric vehicles are experiencing explosive growth, fundamentally altering tin's pricing logic [2]. Industry Chain Disparities - The soaring tin prices have created a split in the industry chain, with upstream miners enjoying high profits while midstream smelters and downstream processors face significant cost pressures [2] - The rising raw material costs have led to a situation where downstream companies struggle to maintain operations, with some reporting drastically reduced operating rates [2]. Investment Outlook - Market participants are advised to balance trends and risks, as macro sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties may lead to price fluctuations at high levels [3] - Investors should focus on companies with upstream resource control and high-end product capabilities, while utilizing futures for risk management or waiting for price corrections to align with supply-demand dynamics [4]. Conclusion - The current tin market dynamics reflect a transformative era driven by green energy and AI, challenging traditional resource paradigms [5] - The ongoing revaluation process, characterized by scarcity and strategic importance, will test the resilience and wisdom of all market participants [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic tin price increased by 14.95% week-on-week. The main reason is the low tin inventory and the market's optimism about the long-term tin demand in AI computing power. Speculative funds significantly increased their positions, driving up the futures price, and both futures and spot prices rose simultaneously. Although the supply side is generally stable and the social inventory has significantly rebounded, the capital game under the low inventory expectation will still dominate the tin price trend, and the tin price may fluctuate sharply at a high level in the short term [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and its concentrates in November was 15,099 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.81% and a year-on-year increase of 24.42%. Myanmar, the largest import source, imported 7,190.21 tons that month, a month-on-month increase of 203.79% and a year-on-year increase of 133.38%; the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the second-largest import source, imported 3,225.34 tons that month, a month-on-month increase of 19.45% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.27% [12]. - Supply side: The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at a high level, with this week's operating rate at 87.81%, basically the same as the previous period. However, restricted by the tight raw material supply, there is limited room for further improvement. Jiangxi is still affected by the insufficient supply of scrap materials, the supply of crude tin is tight, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. Overall, against the background that the raw material constraints have not been significantly alleviated, the operation of domestic smelters mainly remains stable at a high level [12]. - Demand side: Downstream consumer electronics are still in the traditional off-season, and terminal orders are weak. However, the demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers provides some support for tin solder. The overall operating rate of tin solder enterprises remains stable. Downstream solder and electronic enterprises continue the low-inventory strategy, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid needs, with limited willingness to actively replenish inventory. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - No relevant content other than graphs provided 3. Cost Side - No relevant content other than graphs provided 4. Supply Side - No relevant content other than graphs provided 5. Demand Side - The year-on-year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [43]. - No relevant content other than graphs provided 6. Supply - Demand Balance - No relevant content other than graphs provided

Summary of Tin Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview - **Global Tin Resource Distribution**: Global tin resources are unevenly distributed, with China holding 25.6% of the total reserves. Major production areas are concentrated in Yunnan, accounting for over 70% of China's total output. The global extraction ratio is approximately 14-15 years, indicating a potential resource depletion risk in the future [1][4]. - **Production Forecast**: China's tin concentrate production is expected to reach approximately 62,300 tons in 2025, with an annual total of 70,000-73,000 tons. By 2026, production may increase to 77,500 tons, driven by new projects [1][5]. - **Global Supply Contributions**: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a significant tin supplier, with production expected to stabilize at around 17,500 tons in 2025 and 18,500 tons in 2026. Peru's production is projected to grow by 3% in the first three quarters of 2025, while Bolivia faces a 20% decrease due to resource depletion [1][8]. Price Trends and Influencing Factors - **Tin Price Movements**: Tin prices are expected to show a fluctuating upward trend in 2025, particularly rising in the fourth quarter. Prices peaked at 300,000 CNY/ton early in the year but fell to below 240,000 CNY/ton by April due to production recovery news from the Wa region in Myanmar. As of January 2026, prices have reached historical highs of 430,000-440,000 CNY/ton [2]. Supply Chain Dynamics - **Import Trends**: China's tin ingot imports decreased by 2% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with net exports of 2,300 tons. The tightening of raw materials and weak demand contributed to a 2% decrease in refined tin production [3][13]. - **Processing Fees**: Tin processing fees have declined from a peak of 31,000 CNY to approximately 10,000 CNY. Some smelters are seeking to raise fees to offset costs, with new transaction prices reported between 12,000-12,500 CNY [6]. Consumption Insights - **Major Consumption Areas**: The primary consumption sectors for tin include solder (approximately 110,000-120,000 tons/year), integrated circuits, and other electronic products. However, demand for mobile phones and microcomputers has decreased, leading to an overall weak demand for electronic products [19][20]. - **Future Consumption Growth**: Global tin consumption is expected to grow by 4% in 2026, with domestic growth at around 3%. The main growth drivers are in consumer electronics and semiconductors, despite current inventory digestion phases [30]. Regional Supply Contributions - **African Supply Dynamics**: The DRC remains a key supplier, with stable production despite geopolitical challenges. Nigeria has doubled its exports to China from January to October 2025, indicating a shift in supply sources as Myanmar's resources decline [7][11]. - **South American Contributions**: Peru's production is stable, while Bolivia faces significant challenges due to resource depletion. Both countries play important roles in the South American tin supply [8]. Market Challenges and Outlook - **Smelter Operations**: Chinese smelters are experiencing reduced operating rates due to raw material shortages and low market demand, with a projected refined tin production of 174,400 tons in 2025, a 2% decrease year-on-year [14]. - **Profitability Issues**: Smelters are currently facing losses, with a reported loss of 4,000-5,000 CNY per ton of tin produced. This trend is expected to continue into 2026 [15]. - **Inventory Levels**: Both domestic and international visible inventories have increased, with domestic warehouse stocks nearing last year's peak levels [16][17]. Conclusion The tin industry is facing a complex landscape characterized by fluctuating prices, shifting supply sources, and varying demand across different sectors. The outlook for 2026 suggests a tight balance between supply and demand, with potential growth in specific consumption areas despite challenges in production and profitability.

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have surged dramatically, reaching a record high of $54,000 per ton, driven by macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and geopolitical tensions, with significant speculative trading in the futures market [1][2][3] Group 1: Macro Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with the U.S. core CPI falling to 2.6%, below market expectations, enhancing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [1] - The current low range of the dollar index (99-100) provides a supportive macro environment for metal prices, as funds shift from weakening U.S. equities to basic metals like tin [1][2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Tin is experiencing structural demand growth, particularly from the AI sector, with a projected 15% increase in tin consumption in AI-related fields by 2026, driven by the approval of exports of advanced chips to China [2] - The green energy transition is also boosting demand, with increased consumption of tin in photovoltaic applications and electric vehicles, further supported by the cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaic products in China [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Supply Factors - Geopolitical risks are a significant catalyst for the surge in tin prices, particularly due to escalating conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could reduce global tin supply by 3-5% [4] - Supply disruptions are exacerbated by slow recovery in Myanmar's production and delays in Indonesia's export quota approvals, leading to heightened market tension and low visible inventories [4][5] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - The recent price increase in tin has been largely driven by speculative trading, with the Shanghai tin futures contract seeing a cumulative increase of over 20% in three trading days and high trading volumes [3] - The current market sentiment reflects a divergence between futures and spot markets, with a cooling demand in the physical market despite strong speculative interest [5] Group 5: Industry Chain Analysis - The profit distribution within the tin industry is shifting towards upstream resource companies, while midstream and downstream sectors face pressure due to rising costs and limited price transmission to end products [6] - As the Lunar New Year approaches, many downstream companies are entering a shutdown period, which may further exacerbate short-term demand pressures [6] Group 6: Price Forecast and Investment Strategy - Short-term price movements are expected to be volatile, with a high probability of consolidation at elevated levels, as current prices reflect existing macroeconomic and demand expectations [7] - Investors are advised to approach the market cautiously, with strategies tailored to their position in the supply chain, emphasizing risk management and avoiding speculative excesses [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin price is expected to show an oscillating and upward - trending pattern. The short - term price fluctuation range is 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and if the price breaks through, the upper limit of the range may further rise to about 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investors continue to hold long positions or allocate long positions on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On January 12, 2026, the tin price soared, breaking through 315,000 yuan/ton during intraday trading and reaching a new high for the year. The main reason is the continuous supply disruptions and the further release of price elasticity under high market sentiment [3] - In Myanmar, due to the slower - than - expected explosive approval process, there will be a shortage of production raw materials and difficulties in mine production at the beginning of 2026. It is expected that the average monthly output in Myanmar at the beginning of the year will only be maintained at about 1,000 metal tons [3] - In Indonesia, due to the influence of RKAB approval, the supply in the first quarter may still be restricted. As of January 7, the trading volume of tin in the two major exchanges in Indonesia was 0 [3] - In the African region, political instability and backward infrastructure have continuously restricted tin ore production and exports, and the current risk remains high [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the tight situation of domestic tin ore supply remains unresolved, restricting the output of smelting plants. The processing fee for tin concentrate also remains at a low level. As of January 9, the processing fee (TC) for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton [4] - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative refined tin production was 18,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The single - month output in December was 1,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [4] - Under the situation of tight supply, the tin inventory has decreased recently. As of January 9, the domestic tin ingot social inventory was 478 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,042 tons. As of the end of December, the domestic tin ingot enterprise inventory was 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2,070 tons [4] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the tin ore supply continues to tighten, resulting in a short - term shortage of raw materials for smelters, low processing fees for tin concentrates, and difficulty in increasing the output of refined products [5] - In terms of demand, the United States is still in an interest - rate - cut cycle, and the expansion of the fiscal end is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices rebounded significantly due to the recovery of risk appetite in commodities, the upward resonance of the non - ferrous sector, the weak supply of refined tin caused by the reduction of scrap in Jiangxi, and the replenishment of raw material inventory by downstream tin enterprises. The tin market supply and demand maintained a tight balance, and it is expected that tin prices will likely fluctuate at a high level in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. The imports from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo showed different trends [12]. - Supply side: The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high at 87.09% this week, with limited room for further improvement due to tight raw material supply. Jiangxi was affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output [11][12]. - Demand side: Although the demand for consumer electronics entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable supported by orders from emerging fields. Downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy, and spot procurement was mainly for rigid demand [11][12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - No relevant content for summary other than the presentation of graphs about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3). 3.3. Cost Side - The presentation of graphs about China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore imports, tin concentrate prices, and tin concentrate processing fees, but no specific data analysis and summary content provided. 3.4. Supply Side - The presentation of graphs about domestic refined tin monthly production, domestic recycled tin monthly production, tin production and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin imports, and Indonesia's refined tin imports and exports, without specific data analysis and summary content. 3.5. Demand Side - China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. Graphs about the output of various downstream products such as computers, smartphones, home appliances, photovoltaic products, etc., and the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises and domestic tin apparent consumption were presented, but no specific data analysis and summary content provided [44]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The presentation of graphs about China's social inventory and LME inventory, without specific data analysis and summary content.

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by supply-demand balance, geopolitical risk premiums, and expectations of liquidity easing, with current prices reaching new highs since June 2022 [1][2]. Market Price Trends - As of December 19, 2025, the price of 1 tin in the Changjiang spot market is quoted at 336,500-338,500 CNY per ton, with an average of 337,500 CNY per ton, reflecting an increase of 4,000 CNY per ton from the previous day [1]. - The cumulative increase over three days exceeds 5.5%, with the Shanghai tin futures contract closing at 338,410 CNY per ton, marking a 1% rise [1]. Macroeconomic Influences - The latest U.S. CPI data for November shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2]. - Easing liquidity conditions globally are supporting risk assets, including tin, while China's economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand are enhancing market confidence [2]. - Geopolitical risks related to the supply chain of critical minerals are adding a risk premium to tin prices, alongside disruptions in supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and logistical issues in Cambodia [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by structural tightness with limited marginal improvements, primarily due to slow recovery in Myanmar, policy restrictions in Indonesia, and ongoing raw material shortages [3]. - Global refined tin production is declining, and visible inventories are at historically low levels, amplifying the price impact of any supply disruptions [3]. - Demand is transitioning with traditional sectors like consumer electronics facing weakness, while emerging sectors such as AI servers, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics are becoming key growth drivers [3][5]. Industry Structure and Challenges - The upstream sector is dominated by a few major regions, facing challenges from declining ore grades and geopolitical risks, which restrict effective supply release [3]. - The midstream sector is under pressure due to high raw material costs and inefficiencies, pushing the industry towards higher efficiency and concentration through technological upgrades [4]. - The downstream sector is witnessing a structural transformation, with traditional demand stagnating while high-end applications in emerging industries are driving growth [5]. Short-term Price Outlook - The tin market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation, balancing supply disruptions and cost support against weak demand and inventory pressures [5]. - Key factors influencing this balance include the actual recovery of supply from major producing regions and the efficiency of cost transmission to downstream demand [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to widespread market expectations that the Fed will maintain an accommodative policy next year, boosting non-ferrous metal prices [1] - Tin prices have surged, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising by 4.54% to 333,000 yuan/ton, reaching the highest level since March 2022 [1] - The security situation in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has deteriorated, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions of tin, which is significant in global supply [1] Group 2 - Nigeria is also facing risks to tin supply, with President Tinubu declaring a national state of emergency and proposing a six-month suspension of mining activities in the northern states [2] - Nigeria's annual tin production is approximately 7,000 tons, accounting for 2.3% of global tin supply, but the proposal for mining suspension faces significant resistance [2] - The recovery process of tin mining in Myanmar is slow, leading to ongoing bottlenecks in raw material supply, while domestic tin smelting enterprises are experiencing limited operational rates [2] Group 3 - The current supply-demand fundamentals for tin are weak, with seasonal factors and rising prices suppressing consumption, leading to decreased orders from tin processing enterprises [2] - Domestic supply remains stable, with no significant changes in smelting plant operations, while domestic inventory is rising but not at a level to create noticeable pressure [2] - Overseas low inventory levels continue to pose risks of warehouse congestion, with current prices being more influenced by macroeconomic sentiment [2]