| | 化工 | | | 黑色金属 | | 有色金属 | | | | 胡腊酒栽 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 橡胶 rum | | 20号胶 nrm | 螺纹钢 rbm | | 铁矿石 im | 氧化铝 aom 铝合金 adm 碳酸锂 lcm | | | ə qalında qal | sales bin | | 15905.00 -0.44% | | | | | 779.0 -0.19% | 3074.0 | | 80140.0 | | | | | | 12775.00 -0.51% | 3120.00 -0.19% | | | 20430.0 -1.76% | 0.71% | 1.39% | 3951.00 | 3738.00 | | | | | | | | | | | -0.93% | -1.99% | | 合成橡胶 brm 11875.0 -0.88% | | 纯本 bzm 6155.0 -0.65% | 热卷 hcm | 不锈钢 ssm | 锰硅 SMm | | | | | | | | ...

今日沪铝震荡偏强,华东现货升水20元。铝锭社库较上周四增加2万吨，铝棒增加0.9万吨。下游开工季节性回 升，年内库存大概率处于偏低水平，但累库拐点尚未明确，沪铝短期维持震荡，上方20800-21000元区域仍存阻 力。铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，保太现货报价20100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整预期增加企业成本，现货 与沪铝跨品种价差存在进一步收窄空间。氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和上期所仓单均持续上升。 供应过刺逐渐显现,各地现货指数阴跌,今日河南有现货成交价3200元,氧化铝弱势震荡,3000元位置暂具备 支撑。 【锌】 鲍威尔放鸽,美9月降息预期升温,宏观情绪上修。基本面延续供增需弱,盘面反弹,下游对高价锌锭接受度不 足。现货贴水盘面，持货商倾向交仓，隐性库存不断显性化,SMM锌社库走高至13.85万吨。基本面和宏观共振 不足，盘面以空头减仓为主,多头入场偏谨慎。海内外矿增量如期兑现,进口矿TC继续走升，沪锌中线上仍以 反弹承压对待,倾向等待2.35万元/吨上方高空机会。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | なな女 | 肖静 首席分 ...

沪锡震荡走高，主力合约收涨1.22%，报269570元/吨。上周五杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上美联储主席鲍 威尔讲话鸽派，释放了较为明确的即将降息的信号，宏观情绪好转，有色金属普遍飘红，锡矿供应恢复 迟缓，供应偏紧格局维持，沪锡偏强震荡。 原料供应恢复仍显疲态，7月锡矿进口维持低位，缅甸雨季阻碍复产，非洲则受运输周期延长和刚果金 电力谈判等因素影响。7月中国进口锡锭小幅增长，但仍明显低于去年四季度水平，7月进口增加主因智 利Minsur公司抛售库存，叠加5-6月套利窗口短暂开启时锁定的订单于7月集中到港。7月进口窗口长期 处于关闭状态，当前进口亏损达1000元/吨以上，或影响后续锡锭进口。 锡处于供需双弱状态，短期锡矿供应恢复缓慢，但是随着缅矿逐步允许开采后，锡矿供应恢复预期逐渐 增强。当前处于消费淡季，整体需求较为疲软，家电排产下滑。华东地区光伏锡条订单因抢装机结束而 下滑，导致开工率下降；华南地区电子终端进入淡季，叠加前期政策刺激消费，前置部分需求，综合影 响下需求端呈现偏弱迹象。 对于后市，新湖期货评论表示，近期主要终端市场尚未有改善迹象，光伏市场抢装后的降温效应延续， 其他市场也未见起色。供给端也暂无明显 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 沪锡市场周报 供需两弱交投平淡 预计锡价震荡调整 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 研究员： 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锡主力震荡下跌，周线涨跌幅为-0.33%，振幅1.72%。截止本周主力合约收盘报 价265930元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国8月制造业PMI初值53.3，意外创三年多新高，通胀压力加剧。工信部等部 门：进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序，遏制低价无序竞争。基本面，缅甸佤邦虽重启采矿证审批，但 实际出矿需至四季度；刚果Bisie矿山计划分阶段恢复生产，目前锡矿加工费维持历史低位。冶炼 端，7月产量回升主要受部分企业复产、清理中间品等多重因素影响；不过云南产区原料短缺依旧 严峻；江西产区废料回收体系承压，开工率保持在较低水平。需求端，下游加工企业由于传统淡季， 大部分企业生产接货仅维持刚需，订单差强人意。近期锡价震荡，下游多数企业逢低刚需采买，部 分后点价订单。现货 ...

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures night trading opened with mixed results, with Shanghai gold rising by 0.48% and Shanghai silver increasing by 0.31% [1] - Iron ore saw an increase of 0.65%, while焦煤 (coking coal) rose by 0.3% [1] - Other commodities included a decline in glass prices by 0.09% and a drop in pure soda by 0.45%, while crude oil increased by 0.39% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the main contract rising by 0.46% to 268,090 yuan per ton, amid slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar and weak supply-demand fundamentals [1] - The recovery of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing slowly due to seasonal rains, earthquakes, and preparation issues, leading to a delay in actual output expected until the fourth quarter [1] - The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises remains low due to tight raw material supply, with the operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces reaching 59.23% as of August 15, showing a slight month-on-month decline [1] Group 2 - Downstream orders for tin continue to decline, with the third quarter being a traditional off-season for consumption, resulting in lower orders in the home appliance sector compared to previous years [2] - The semiconductor market is expected to grow, driven by demand from AI, cloud infrastructure, and advanced consumer electronics, although some sub-segments may continue to shrink [2] - The overall demand for tin in photovoltaic solder remains weak due to a significant drop in orders following a mid-year rush for installations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the weakening US job market, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, but the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo-Kinshasa, along with the continuous increase in the operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, may limit the upside space of Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support levels around 248,000 - 258,000 and the resistance levels around 274,000 - 283,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 267,940, a decrease of 380 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 44,115 lots, a decrease of 37,387 lots; the open interest was 24,776 lots, a decrease of 1,155 lots; the inventory was 7,332 tons, an increase of 33 tons [2] - The closing price of LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on August 13, 2025, was 33,700, a decrease of 70 compared to the previous day [2] - The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared to last week [1][2] Industry News - According to the data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade for June, the total export volume of tin ingots decreased by 18.2% to 4,465 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports to Singapore increased by 15.1% month - on - month to 1,063.95 tons, while exports to China decreased by 35.7% month - on - month to 953.85 tons [2] - Stellar Resources extended the exclusive period for the use of infrastructure in the Comstock mining area adjacent to the Heemskirk tin mine project by 6 months. The company is evaluating three development plans and focusing on tailings storage solutions [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo - Kinshasa are expected to resume production; domestic refined tin production capacity operating rate has increased; the inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased, while the social inventory in China and the inventory in the London Metal Exchange have decreased [2] - Demand side: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to a decrease in the operating rate of China's tin solder production capacity in August and an increase in inventory; the production volume of China's tin - plated sheets in August may increase [2] Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but due to the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo-Kinshasa and the continuous increase in the operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 267,940 yuan, a decrease of 380 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 44,115 lots, a decrease of 37,387 lots; the open interest was 24,776 lots, a decrease of 1,155 lots; the inventory was 7,332 tons, an increase of 33 tons [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on August 13, 2025, was $33,700, a decrease of $70 from the previous day; the LME tin global inventory was 1,780 tons, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The ratio of Shanghai tin to London tin was 8.01 on August 13, 2025, an increase of 0.01 from the previous day [2]. Industry News - According to June data from the Indonesian Trade Ministry, the total export volume of tin ingots decreased by 18.2% to 4,465 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports to Singapore increased by 15.1% month - on - month to 1,063.95 tons, while exports to China decreased by 35.7% month - on - month to 953.85 tons [2]. - Stellar Resources extended the exclusivity period for the use of infrastructure in the Comstock mining area adjacent to the Heemskirk tin mine project by 6 months. The company is evaluating three development plans and aims to achieve an annual tin production of 3,000 - 3,500 tons in the first 6 - 10 years after production [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In July, some tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State planned to resume production, and the Bisie tin mine in Congo - Kinshasa also announced phased resumption of production. The domestic tin ore production and import volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the domestic tin concentrate processing fee is oscillating downward. The production of recycled tin in China in August increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and Yunnan increased. The production and inventory of refined tin in China in August increased month - on - month. Indonesia's tin export quota may be compressed in the medium and long term, but PT Tinah plans to increase production and sales in 2025, and China's refined tin import volume in August may decrease month - on - month. The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared with last week [2]. - Demand: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a decline in the operating rate of China's tin solder production capacity in August. The import volume of China's solder strips in August may decrease month - on - month, and the production, import, and export volumes of China's tin - plated sheets in August may change as follows: production increases, import decreases, and export increases. The operating rate of China's lead - acid battery production capacity decreased compared with last week [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support level of 248,000 - 258,000 and the resistance level of 274,000 - 283,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level of 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance level of 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2].

Group 1: Market Reactions - LME copper prices increased by 0.30% to $9,761 per ton, driven by the consensus between China and the U.S. to continue the suspension of 24% tariffs [1] - The SHFE September copper contract remained stable at ¥78,940 per ton, reflecting positive sentiment in the commodity market due to the tariff suspension agreement [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Expectations of increased copper supply are suppressing price gains, with Codelco reporting a 17% year-on-year increase in copper production to 120,200 tons in June [3] - The approval for the resumption of operations in unaffected areas of the El Teniente copper mine alleviated supply concerns, impacting copper prices [3] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME aluminum prices rose by 0.39% to $2,598 per ton, while nickel prices fell by 0.10% to $15,335 per ton [4] - In Shanghai, aluminum prices remained stable at ¥20,680 per ton, with nickel prices increasing by 0.79% to ¥122,590 per ton [4]