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“矿荒”导致“锭缺” 沪铜主力合约重回80000元/吨关口
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-03 00:18
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent recovery in copper prices driven by low inventory levels outside the U.S. and underwhelming copper raw material production growth in the first half of the year [2][3] - LME and domestic refined copper inventories have reached historical lows of 90,000 tons and 120,000 tons respectively, contributing to concerns over supply shortages in the non-U.S. markets [2] - The demand for copper has remained resilient, with China's power grid investment growing nearly 20% year-on-year in the first half, offsetting weaknesses in the real estate sector [3] Group 2 - The current trading logic in the copper market is characterized by a historical supply tightening at the mining level, with significant pricing power shifting to global copper miners [3] - The outlook for the second half of the year hinges on two key factors: the cessation of the U.S. "short squeeze" on global end demand and the sustainability of strong demand [4] - Geopolitical risk premiums and intensified financial speculation have increased the volatility of copper prices, with expectations of trading within a range of 78,000 to 83,000 yuan/ton for the main copper futures contract in July [4]