铜周报 2026/02/28 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 地缘局势加大波动风险 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 需求：铜价回升，节后市场成交逐步回暖，铜加工企业开工率普遍回升，但回升幅度相对较小。国内精废价差收窄，再生铜杆开工率仍低位 运行，废铜替代仍偏少。 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费小幅反弹，仍维持低位运行，粗铜加工费环比抬升，冷料供应仍较充足；消息面上，智利国家统计局数据显示，智 利1月铜产量同比下降3%，至41.4万吨，产量处于多年低位。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存加总119.2万吨，环比增加13.2万吨，其中上期所库存较节前增加11.9至39.2万吨，LME库存增加1.2至25.4万吨， COMEX库存增加0.1至54.6万吨。上海保税区库存增加0.4万吨。现货方面，周五华东地区现货贴水扩大至235元/吨；LME市场Cash/3M贴水收 窄至49.5美元/ ...

Group 1 - The core product of the company is smart electric meters and electricity information collection systems [2] - The proportion of copper materials in the company's raw materials is low, indicating that fluctuations in copper prices do not significantly impact the company's operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Honglin Electric (301439.SZ) has indicated that its products are not currently applied in the commercial aerospace sector [1] Group 1: Product and Market Strategy - The company has signed sales contracts with several large clients based on a copper price linkage model, which minimizes the impact of copper price fluctuations on its profits [1] - In response to rising raw material prices and increased costs, the company will actively monitor market changes and product price variations, considering comprehensive strategies in cost control and product structure optimization [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are facing short-term pressure despite macroeconomic support due to weakening U.S. import momentum and a demand vacuum ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Import Dynamics - The surge in U.S. refined copper imports observed in December and early January has cooled down as the narrowing COMEX-LME price spread has eliminated financial incentives for continued large-scale imports [5][6]. - The market's adjustment to the expectations regarding Section 232 tariffs on refined copper has contributed to this change, as the anticipated tariffs were not implemented following the January 14 investigation results [5]. - Recent data indicates a significant inflow of copper into LME warehouses in the U.S., marking the first occurrence in nearly a year, which is suppressing LME prices and cross-period spreads [5][6]. Group 2: Chinese Demand Trends - China's apparent copper demand showed negative growth in December, while refined copper exports remained strong, leading to a seasonal increase in inventory [7]. - The upcoming data vacuum due to the Lunar New Year will add uncertainty to market conditions, with limited information on demand until mid-March [7]. - Despite global supply constraints, China's refined copper production is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, reaching a record high, supported by increased imports of copper concentrate and scrap [7]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply side is extremely constrained, with Morgan Stanley projecting only a 0.2% growth in copper mine supply for 2026, resulting in an estimated market deficit of around 600,000 tons [2][9]. - Significant supply disruptions, such as the strike at Capstone's Mantoverde mine, are expected to extend into 2026, limiting refined copper supply growth [2][9]. - Historical data indicates that copper mine supply growth rates have been volatile, with 2025 and 2026 expected to be at historical lows [9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates a market deficit of approximately 600,000 tons in 2026 due to limited mine supply growth (0.2%) not keeping pace with strong demand growth (1.8%) driven by new factors like data centers and energy storage systems [10]. - The macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive of metal prices, with expectations of further interest rate cuts bolstering demand for non-yielding assets [10]. - Despite a positive outlook for metals, including copper, prices have exceeded initial forecasts, and short-term volatility may arise due to uncertainties in U.S. import trends [10].

Core Viewpoint - Jingyi Co., Ltd. (SZ002295) is expected to report a net loss of between 28.18 million yuan and 52.33 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 27.71 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to substantial bad debt provisions [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Jingyi Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 3.481 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.77% [3] - The operating profit for the same period was 13.7 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 52.43% to 14.09 million yuan [3] - The company reported a negative net cash flow from operating activities of 116 million yuan, worsening due to increased procurement costs and rising working capital [3] Group 2: Bad Debt and Cash Flow Management - The anticipated loss for 2025 is mainly attributed to large provisions for bad debts, with the company emphasizing its commitment to managing accounts receivable through enhanced credit checks and collection efforts [3][6] - As of September 30, 2025, the accounts receivable balance stood at 884 million yuan, accounting for approximately 25% of the revenue, which raises concerns given the significant multiple compared to net profit [6] Group 3: Industry Context and Cost Pressures - The copper processing industry is facing rising credit risks, with many companies experiencing increased accounts receivable and extended payment terms due to tightening credit cycles and weak end-demand [6] - In 2025, copper prices have shown a significant upward trend, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reaching a record high of 11,996 USD per ton on December 22, 2025, contributing to increased cost pressures for companies [4] - Jingyi Co., Ltd. has established a pricing system based on "copper price + processing fee" to mitigate risks associated with copper price fluctuations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Farah Electronics (600563) acknowledges the impact of copper price fluctuations on product costs and is taking measures to mitigate this effect while maintaining stable orders and production [1] Group 2 - The company is actively communicating with upstream and downstream partners to reduce the impact of cost changes [1] - Orders and production levels for the company remain stable despite the fluctuations in copper prices [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 法拉电子（600563.SH）1月21日在投资者互动平台表示，铜价波动会对公司产品成本有一定影响，公 司会采取措施并积极和上下游沟通，减少对产品成本的影响。公司订单及生产均保持稳定。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：这轮有色金属涨价，涉及到铝、锌、铜等材料，对公 司产品的成本影响有多大？公司是否有能力将成本涨价传导到下游？ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Sell put options 2. Core View of the Report - Although domestic demand is affected by high copper prices, subsidies for certain end - products (such as home appliances and new energy vehicles) will continue in 2026. TC is still at a low level, and mine - end supply remains tight. It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 99,600 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton, while paying attention to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on Comex inventory [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On January 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,910 yuan/ton and closed at 103,800 yuan/ton, a 2.36% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 104,500 yuan/ton and closed at 103,450 yuan/ton, a 0.54% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a discount of 30 yuan to a premium of 150 yuan per ton against the 2601 contract, with an average premium of 60 yuan, a 105 - yuan increase from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 102,870 to 103,600 yuan/ton. As the delivery approaches, the premium pattern is expected to continue, but further upward movement is limited by downstream acceptance and warehouse receipt declaration [2]. Important Information Summary Geopolitical Aspect - Trump stated that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US. Iran is prepared for all possibilities. The UK and Germany are leading European countries to discuss deploying troops in Greenland [3]. Mine End - Lundin Mining plans to invest $150 million to upgrade its Caserones copper - molybdenum mine, extending its operation until 2039. In November, Codelco's copper production decreased by 3% to 130,900 tons, Escondida's production dropped by 12.8% to 94,400 tons, and Collahuasi's production increased by 2.7% to 37,700 tons [4]. Smelting and Import - Last week, LME copper inventory first increased and then decreased to 138,975 tons, a two - month low. SHFE copper inventory increased by 24.22% to 180,543 tons, a nine - month high. New York copper inventory continued to rise. Pan Pacific Copper proposed a 2026 copper premium of $330 per ton to Japanese customers, due to a significant decline in TC/RC and concerns about US tariffs [5]. Consumption - In the past week, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 47.82%, a 1.01 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 28.54 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 56.58%, a 2.37 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 12.73 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement, but some orders were released when prices briefly declined. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will rise to 58.83%, and that of copper cable enterprises will rise to 56.88% [6][7]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,100 tons to 137,225 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons. On January 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 293,400 tons, a 19,600 - ton increase from the previous week [7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 99,600 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold. - Options: Sell put options [8].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Shanghai copper prices rebounded after hitting a low, with the total open interest decreasing by 17,019 lots. Affected by the selling sentiment in the precious metals market, copper prices once dropped to 96,000, but the bullish sentiment in the copper market remained, and the downward trend was halted during the day [9]. - Spot copper prices fell by 3,120 to 97,620, and the spot discount narrowed by 90 to 240. As the end of the year approached, spot trading was sluggish [9]. - The import loss of spot copper during the day was 1,489, and the export window was approaching opening. It is expected that the inventory accumulation speed of domestic social warehouses will slow down in the future [9]. Operation Suggestions - Overall, the medium - term fundamentals are positive, but the spot market is dragging down in the short term. Current copper prices are more driven by macro - sentiment, and fluctuations are expected to increase. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [9] Group 3: Industry News Tibet Julong Copper Mine - On December 29, the main project construction and core equipment installation of the second - phase expansion project of Tibet Julong Copper Mine were completed and successfully linked for trial operation, marking a key step before production. After the second - phase is fully operational, it will add a new ore - processing capacity of 200,000 tons per day. At that time, the combined daily processing capacity of the first and second phases will reach 350,000 tons [9]. - The third - phase project of Julong Copper Mine is also in the planning stage. After completion, it will rank among the world's largest copper mines in terms of mining and processing scale [9] India's Supreme Court Ruling - India's Supreme Court suspended its ruling made five weeks ago on redefining the Aravalli Mountains, which had opened the mineral - rich ancient mountains to broader mining and real - estate development. The special panel led by Chief Justice Surya Kant stated that the original ruling might be "misunderstood and misused" [9][10]. - A high - level expert committee will be established to comprehensively assess the ecological impact of the original definition, and the new committee will study how to allow sustainable mineral development while protecting ecological integrity. The Supreme Court will hear the case again on January 21, 2026, and during this period, the suspension order on new mining leases will be maintained [9][10] - The Aravalli Mountains are rich in more than 70 kinds of mineral resources, including copper (mainly distributed in the Khetri copper belt in Rajasthan), zinc, lead, silver, tungsten, asbestos, and other industrial raw materials [10]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper futures prices have significantly increased, recovering some losses from the previous week, driven by supply concerns from major producers like Codelco [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On October 13, LME copper futures opened at $10,490 per ton and reached a current price of $10,577.5 per ton, marking a 1.96% increase [1] - The intraday trading saw a high of $10,688 per ton and a low of $10,480 per ton [1] - On October 10, LME copper futures closed at $10,374 per ton, down 3.73% from the previous trading session [1] Group 2: Market Data and Trends - As of October 10, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 8.0, with an import loss of -1,012.46 yuan per ton, improving from -1,166.87 yuan per ton the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper warehouse receipts of 29,964 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous trading day [1] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 131,050 tons, with 8,350 tons canceled, a decrease of 75 tons, while total copper inventory stood at 139,400 tons, also down by 75 tons [1] Group 3: Supply Concerns - Analysts from ANZ Bank indicated ongoing supply-side issues, particularly highlighting concerns from Codelco regarding its El Teniente mine operating below capacity in the coming months [1]