1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are supported in the short - term, but the risk of volatility has increased. The domestic and foreign spot basis is differentiated, the refined - scrap spread has narrowed slightly, and global visible inventories have continued to increase, with copper valuation being neutral to bearish. In terms of drivers, the US dollar index has weakened slightly, the short - term copper concentrate processing fee has rebounded slightly but remains at a low level, and the global PMI has risen above the boom - bust line, with short - term drivers being bullish [13]. - The operating ranges of copper prices are as follows: the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate between 101,500 - 106,500 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M is expected to operate between 12,800 - 14,000 US dollars/ton [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: Copper prices have rebounded, and post - holiday market transactions have gradually recovered. The operating rates of copper processing enterprises have generally rebounded, but the rebound amplitude is relatively small. The domestic refined - scrap spread has narrowed, the operating rate of recycled copper rods remains at a low level, and the substitution of scrap copper is still limited [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrates has rebounded slightly but remains at a low level. The processing fee of blister copper has increased month - on - month, and the supply of cold materials is still relatively sufficient. In January 2026, Chile's copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year to 414,000 tons, reaching a multi - year low [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.192 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 132,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased by 119,000 tons to 392,000 tons compared with before the holiday, the LME inventory has increased by 12,000 tons to 254,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 546,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area has increased by 4,000 tons. In the spot market, the spot discount in East China has widened to 235 yuan/ton on Friday; the Cash/3M discount in the LME market has narrowed to 49.5 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Import and Export**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded and then declined slightly. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices have oscillated strongly. The Shanghai copper main contract has risen by 3.53% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has risen by 2.28% to 13,296 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Spot Prices**: Domestic copper prices have rebounded. Due to the large increase in inventory during the Spring Festival, the basis has weakened. On Friday, the spot discount of copper in East China has widened to 260 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has rebounded slightly, and the Cash/3M discount has narrowed, reporting a discount of 49.5 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has widened, and the Yangshan copper premium has rebounded and then declined slightly [29]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrates has rebounded slightly to - 50.4 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China has strengthened, which still makes a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [36]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB has appreciated, and the spot Shanghai - LME ratio of copper has weakened [39]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports has widened [42]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.192 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 132,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 88,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with before the holiday. The increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory mainly comes from Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu; the number of copper warrants has increased by 93,914 to 290,594 tons compared with last week. The LME inventory has increased, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses, and the European inventory has decreased; the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased slightly [45][48][51]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: According to SMM research data, in January 2026, China's refined copper production increased by about 1,000 tons month - on - month, higher than expected. It is expected that the production in February will decline month - on - month but maintain high - year - on - year growth. According to NBS data, in December 2025, the refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative annual production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [55]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 21.96%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. The imports of anode copper were 61,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. The imports of refined copper were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. The exports of refined copper were 96,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons. The profit of domestic spot copper feed - processing exports has recovered after a decline. The imports of recycled copper were 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.83% and a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [58][61][64][70][73]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power (46%), home appliances (15%), transportation (11%), construction (9%), mechanical electronics (9%), and other (10%) sectors. In China, it is mainly in the construction (26%), equipment (23%), industry (12%), transportation (13%), infrastructure (17%), and other (9%) sectors [77]. - **PMI**: In January, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the overall manufacturing prosperity declined slightly. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies has recovered simultaneously [80]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: In December, the year - on - year output of freezers, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of automobiles, washing machines, air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year output of automobiles, air conditioners, household washing machines, household refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs, and AC motors decreased [83]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all decreasing year - on - year, but the decline rate slowed down. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in December [85]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: In January, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and it is expected to decline in February; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises remained at a low level, and it is expected to decline in February. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises rebounded slightly in January and is expected to decline in February; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises increased slightly in January and is expected to decline in February. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises continued to rise in January and is expected to decline slightly in February; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises declined in January, and it is estimated to decline in February. The operating rate of copper strip enterprises increased slightly in January and is expected to decline in February; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased slightly in January and is expected to decline slightly in February. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly but remained at a low level. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises recovered slightly; the operating rate of copper strip enterprises rebounded [88][91][94][97][100][103]. - **Refined - Scrap Spread**: The domestic refined - scrap spread has narrowed compared with last week, reporting 2,689 yuan/ton on Friday [108]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions have increased by 49,338 to 1,156,996 lots (bilateral), among which the positions of the near - month 2603 contract are 152,922 lots (bilateral) [113]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of February 24, CFTC fund positions remained net long, and the net long ratio increased to 20.8%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds rebounded (as of February 20) [116].

Group 1 - The core product of the company is smart electric meters and electricity information collection systems [2] - The proportion of copper materials in the company's raw materials is low, indicating that fluctuations in copper prices do not significantly impact the company's operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Honglin Electric (301439.SZ) has indicated that its products are not currently applied in the commercial aerospace sector [1] Group 1: Product and Market Strategy - The company has signed sales contracts with several large clients based on a copper price linkage model, which minimizes the impact of copper price fluctuations on its profits [1] - In response to rising raw material prices and increased costs, the company will actively monitor market changes and product price variations, considering comprehensive strategies in cost control and product structure optimization [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are facing short-term pressure despite macroeconomic support due to weakening U.S. import momentum and a demand vacuum ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Import Dynamics - The surge in U.S. refined copper imports observed in December and early January has cooled down as the narrowing COMEX-LME price spread has eliminated financial incentives for continued large-scale imports [5][6]. - The market's adjustment to the expectations regarding Section 232 tariffs on refined copper has contributed to this change, as the anticipated tariffs were not implemented following the January 14 investigation results [5]. - Recent data indicates a significant inflow of copper into LME warehouses in the U.S., marking the first occurrence in nearly a year, which is suppressing LME prices and cross-period spreads [5][6]. Group 2: Chinese Demand Trends - China's apparent copper demand showed negative growth in December, while refined copper exports remained strong, leading to a seasonal increase in inventory [7]. - The upcoming data vacuum due to the Lunar New Year will add uncertainty to market conditions, with limited information on demand until mid-March [7]. - Despite global supply constraints, China's refined copper production is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, reaching a record high, supported by increased imports of copper concentrate and scrap [7]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply side is extremely constrained, with Morgan Stanley projecting only a 0.2% growth in copper mine supply for 2026, resulting in an estimated market deficit of around 600,000 tons [2][9]. - Significant supply disruptions, such as the strike at Capstone's Mantoverde mine, are expected to extend into 2026, limiting refined copper supply growth [2][9]. - Historical data indicates that copper mine supply growth rates have been volatile, with 2025 and 2026 expected to be at historical lows [9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates a market deficit of approximately 600,000 tons in 2026 due to limited mine supply growth (0.2%) not keeping pace with strong demand growth (1.8%) driven by new factors like data centers and energy storage systems [10]. - The macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive of metal prices, with expectations of further interest rate cuts bolstering demand for non-yielding assets [10]. - Despite a positive outlook for metals, including copper, prices have exceeded initial forecasts, and short-term volatility may arise due to uncertainties in U.S. import trends [10].

Core Viewpoint - Jingyi Co., Ltd. (SZ002295) is expected to report a net loss of between 28.18 million yuan and 52.33 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 27.71 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to substantial bad debt provisions [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Jingyi Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 3.481 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.77% [3] - The operating profit for the same period was 13.7 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 52.43% to 14.09 million yuan [3] - The company reported a negative net cash flow from operating activities of 116 million yuan, worsening due to increased procurement costs and rising working capital [3] Group 2: Bad Debt and Cash Flow Management - The anticipated loss for 2025 is mainly attributed to large provisions for bad debts, with the company emphasizing its commitment to managing accounts receivable through enhanced credit checks and collection efforts [3][6] - As of September 30, 2025, the accounts receivable balance stood at 884 million yuan, accounting for approximately 25% of the revenue, which raises concerns given the significant multiple compared to net profit [6] Group 3: Industry Context and Cost Pressures - The copper processing industry is facing rising credit risks, with many companies experiencing increased accounts receivable and extended payment terms due to tightening credit cycles and weak end-demand [6] - In 2025, copper prices have shown a significant upward trend, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reaching a record high of 11,996 USD per ton on December 22, 2025, contributing to increased cost pressures for companies [4] - Jingyi Co., Ltd. has established a pricing system based on "copper price + processing fee" to mitigate risks associated with copper price fluctuations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Farah Electronics (600563) acknowledges the impact of copper price fluctuations on product costs and is taking measures to mitigate this effect while maintaining stable orders and production [1] Group 2 - The company is actively communicating with upstream and downstream partners to reduce the impact of cost changes [1] - Orders and production levels for the company remain stable despite the fluctuations in copper prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that fluctuations in copper prices will impact the company's product costs, but the company is taking measures to mitigate this effect and maintain stable orders and production [2]. Group 2 - The company has acknowledged that the recent price increases in non-ferrous metals, including aluminum, zinc, and copper, will affect its cost structure [2]. - The company is actively communicating with both upstream and downstream partners to reduce the impact of cost increases on its products [2]. - The company reports that its order volume and production levels remain stable despite the cost pressures [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Sell put options 2. Core View of the Report - Although domestic demand is affected by high copper prices, subsidies for certain end - products (such as home appliances and new energy vehicles) will continue in 2026. TC is still at a low level, and mine - end supply remains tight. It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 99,600 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton, while paying attention to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on Comex inventory [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On January 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,910 yuan/ton and closed at 103,800 yuan/ton, a 2.36% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 104,500 yuan/ton and closed at 103,450 yuan/ton, a 0.54% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a discount of 30 yuan to a premium of 150 yuan per ton against the 2601 contract, with an average premium of 60 yuan, a 105 - yuan increase from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 102,870 to 103,600 yuan/ton. As the delivery approaches, the premium pattern is expected to continue, but further upward movement is limited by downstream acceptance and warehouse receipt declaration [2]. Important Information Summary Geopolitical Aspect - Trump stated that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US. Iran is prepared for all possibilities. The UK and Germany are leading European countries to discuss deploying troops in Greenland [3]. Mine End - Lundin Mining plans to invest $150 million to upgrade its Caserones copper - molybdenum mine, extending its operation until 2039. In November, Codelco's copper production decreased by 3% to 130,900 tons, Escondida's production dropped by 12.8% to 94,400 tons, and Collahuasi's production increased by 2.7% to 37,700 tons [4]. Smelting and Import - Last week, LME copper inventory first increased and then decreased to 138,975 tons, a two - month low. SHFE copper inventory increased by 24.22% to 180,543 tons, a nine - month high. New York copper inventory continued to rise. Pan Pacific Copper proposed a 2026 copper premium of $330 per ton to Japanese customers, due to a significant decline in TC/RC and concerns about US tariffs [5]. Consumption - In the past week, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 47.82%, a 1.01 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 28.54 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 56.58%, a 2.37 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 12.73 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement, but some orders were released when prices briefly declined. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will rise to 58.83%, and that of copper cable enterprises will rise to 56.88% [6][7]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,100 tons to 137,225 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons. On January 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 293,400 tons, a 19,600 - ton increase from the previous week [7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 99,600 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold. - Options: Sell put options [8].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Shanghai copper prices rebounded after hitting a low, with the total open interest decreasing by 17,019 lots. Affected by the selling sentiment in the precious metals market, copper prices once dropped to 96,000, but the bullish sentiment in the copper market remained, and the downward trend was halted during the day [9]. - Spot copper prices fell by 3,120 to 97,620, and the spot discount narrowed by 90 to 240. As the end of the year approached, spot trading was sluggish [9]. - The import loss of spot copper during the day was 1,489, and the export window was approaching opening. It is expected that the inventory accumulation speed of domestic social warehouses will slow down in the future [9]. Operation Suggestions - Overall, the medium - term fundamentals are positive, but the spot market is dragging down in the short term. Current copper prices are more driven by macro - sentiment, and fluctuations are expected to increase. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [9] Group 3: Industry News Tibet Julong Copper Mine - On December 29, the main project construction and core equipment installation of the second - phase expansion project of Tibet Julong Copper Mine were completed and successfully linked for trial operation, marking a key step before production. After the second - phase is fully operational, it will add a new ore - processing capacity of 200,000 tons per day. At that time, the combined daily processing capacity of the first and second phases will reach 350,000 tons [9]. - The third - phase project of Julong Copper Mine is also in the planning stage. After completion, it will rank among the world's largest copper mines in terms of mining and processing scale [9] India's Supreme Court Ruling - India's Supreme Court suspended its ruling made five weeks ago on redefining the Aravalli Mountains, which had opened the mineral - rich ancient mountains to broader mining and real - estate development. The special panel led by Chief Justice Surya Kant stated that the original ruling might be "misunderstood and misused" [9][10]. - A high - level expert committee will be established to comprehensively assess the ecological impact of the original definition, and the new committee will study how to allow sustainable mineral development while protecting ecological integrity. The Supreme Court will hear the case again on January 21, 2026, and during this period, the suspension order on new mining leases will be maintained [9][10] - The Aravalli Mountains are rich in more than 70 kinds of mineral resources, including copper (mainly distributed in the Khetri copper belt in Rajasthan), zinc, lead, silver, tungsten, asbestos, and other industrial raw materials [10]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper futures prices have significantly increased, recovering some losses from the previous week, driven by supply concerns from major producers like Codelco [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On October 13, LME copper futures opened at $10,490 per ton and reached a current price of $10,577.5 per ton, marking a 1.96% increase [1] - The intraday trading saw a high of $10,688 per ton and a low of $10,480 per ton [1] - On October 10, LME copper futures closed at $10,374 per ton, down 3.73% from the previous trading session [1] Group 2: Market Data and Trends - As of October 10, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 8.0, with an import loss of -1,012.46 yuan per ton, improving from -1,166.87 yuan per ton the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper warehouse receipts of 29,964 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous trading day [1] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 131,050 tons, with 8,350 tons canceled, a decrease of 75 tons, while total copper inventory stood at 139,400 tons, also down by 75 tons [1] Group 3: Supply Concerns - Analysts from ANZ Bank indicated ongoing supply-side issues, particularly highlighting concerns from Codelco regarding its El Teniente mine operating below capacity in the coming months [1]