Core Viewpoint - LME copper futures prices have significantly increased, recovering some losses from the previous week, driven by supply concerns from major producers like Codelco [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On October 13, LME copper futures opened at $10,490 per ton and reached a current price of $10,577.5 per ton, marking a 1.96% increase [1] - The intraday trading saw a high of $10,688 per ton and a low of $10,480 per ton [1] - On October 10, LME copper futures closed at $10,374 per ton, down 3.73% from the previous trading session [1] Group 2: Market Data and Trends - As of October 10, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 8.0, with an import loss of -1,012.46 yuan per ton, improving from -1,166.87 yuan per ton the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper warehouse receipts of 29,964 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous trading day [1] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 131,050 tons, with 8,350 tons canceled, a decrease of 75 tons, while total copper inventory stood at 139,400 tons, also down by 75 tons [1] Group 3: Supply Concerns - Analysts from ANZ Bank indicated ongoing supply-side issues, particularly highlighting concerns from Codelco regarding its El Teniente mine operating below capacity in the coming months [1]

贸易摩擦升级，价格波动放大 沪铜周度报告·2025年10月13日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 Part 01 周度综述 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨 ） | -40 8 . | -40 36 . | 0 .44 | 1.08% | 周内正值国庆假期 铜精矿现货市场成交较为冷清 后续重点关注11月长单谈判的结 ， ， 果 。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 2085 | 3187 | 1,101 | 52 81% . | 节后铜价大幅走高 再生铜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is experiencing a dichotomy in production and demand, with some companies maintaining high production levels while others face significant slowdowns due to high copper prices and reduced downstream orders [4][28][34]. Group 1: Production Dynamics - A copper rod company in Jiangxi has been operating at full capacity to meet order demands, producing over 1,000 tons of recycled copper raw materials before the National Day holiday [2][5]. - According to Mysteel's survey, 19 out of 61 surveyed copper rod companies chose to continue production during the holiday, indicating strong demand in certain segments [2][4]. - In contrast, some companies, particularly in the refined copper rod sector, have extended their holiday breaks due to high inventory levels and slow order pickups, with an average holiday duration of 4.05 days in 2025 compared to 3.95 days in 2023 [3][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The copper price surged due to supply disruptions from the Grasberg copper mine incident, leading to a cautious approach among downstream buyers [4][34]. - The average copper price in 2025 has been higher than in 2024, yet end-user orders have not returned to peak levels, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4][34]. - High copper prices have resulted in increased production costs for refined copper rod companies, with some reporting a 30% decrease in orders compared to the previous year [28][33]. Group 3: Inventory Management - Companies are adopting varied inventory strategies, with 30% of firms maintaining current stock levels while another 30% are delaying production due to unclear policies and weak demand [7][28]. - The need for careful inventory management is emphasized, as companies must balance production with financial pressures and market uncertainties [7][34]. - Some companies are facing significant financial strain due to high inventory levels, with one firm reporting a stock of over 2,000 tons, double the normal level, leading to increased financial costs [26][33]. Group 4: Demand for Lithium Battery Copper Foil - The demand for lithium battery copper foil has surged, with one company reporting a 40% increase in urgent orders compared to the previous year [14][20]. - During the National Day holiday, many copper foil companies maintained over 80% operating rates, significantly higher than the typical 50% [22]. - The growth in the lithium battery sector is driving production decisions, with companies adjusting their output to meet urgent customer demands [16][20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The copper market is expected to face a supply surplus in 2025, transitioning to a shortage in 2026, primarily due to tightening supply conditions [37][40]. - The Chinese government has set clear growth targets for the recycled metals sector, which may influence production strategies in the coming years [40][41]. - Analysts predict that while short-term price fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive due to structural demand growth in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [34][41].

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - The global copper price has significantly increased due to the suspension of production at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, with LME copper closing at $10,320 per ton on September 24, marking a 3.46% rise [4][5] - On September 25, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze market reached 82,500 yuan per ton, up 3.06% from the previous day, an increase of 2,450 yuan [4][5] - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest copper mines globally, has a copper reserve of 13.99 million tons and has lowered its third-quarter sales guidance for copper and gold by 4% and 6%, respectively [5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the impact of the Grasberg incident is primarily psychological for the market, with minimal direct effects on domestic copper concentrate supply [3][6] - The incident is expected to lead to a slight reduction in global metal supply, with estimates of a decrease of about 5,000 tons in 2025 and 22,000 tons in 2026, which is a small fraction of the expected consumption [6][7] - Despite the recent surge, some market participants believe that copper prices may correct downward as demand weakens after the initial excitement fades [7] Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Domestic copper companies, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining, have shown strong stock performance, with Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price rising by 9.90% to 13.87 yuan [7][8] - Luoyang Molybdenum is projected to produce 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase year-on-year, positioning it among the top copper producers globally [8][9] - The company anticipates a stable market as U.S. import tariffs on copper products take effect, which may alleviate supply tensions outside the U.S. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Grasberg Block Cave mud collapse accident leads to production suspension and sales volume reduction, affecting copper market supply and prices [1][3] - Global copper concentrate balance table is expected to be further adjusted, and the supply loss rate may exceed 5% in 2025 [5] - Focus on the capital's allocation interest in the copper market and the actual consumption strength [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On the evening of September 24, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure on the mud collapse accident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, and lowered the copper and gold sales volume expectations for the fourth quarter of this year and the whole of next year. The LME copper price rose sharply before the night session opened, hitting a new high of $10,320/ton in closing price this year; the Shanghai copper weighted index increased by more than 60,000 lots, and the weighted index rose to a maximum of 82,880 points [1] Importance of the Mine - The accident occurred on September 8, with a large amount of mud gushing out, and the mining area is basically in a state of suspension. The accident investigation is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's second-largest copper concentrate mine. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) currently holds 48.8% of the shares, and the Indonesian company holds 51.2% (still actively committed to increasing the equity ratio). The annual production capacity of the mine is 800,000 tons. During the epidemic, it completed the transformation from an open-pit mine to underground mining. In 2024, the copper sales volume of the mine increased to about 760,000 tons, accounting for about 40% of FCX's annual output. According to the 22.98 million tons of copper concentrate production of the International Copper Study Group in 2024, it accounts for about 3.3% [1] Impact of the Accident on the Mine's Sales Volume - In June 2023, Indonesia banned the export of copper concentrate unless the construction of smelter capacity is fulfilled to obtain a phased export quota. The project of building a smelter for the Grasberg copper mine by FCX has been tortuous. The commissioning process of the Manyar smelter in 2024 was repeatedly delayed, and it was commissioned in May 2025 and produced in July (the plant is expected to produce 480,000 tons of cathode copper annually, with a concentrate processing capacity of 1.7 million tons); the Gresik smelter (jointly owned with Mitsubishi, expected to consume 40% of the copper concentrate from Grasberg and with an annual output of 342,000 tons) was shut down due to an oxygen production accident in summer. The smelting progress cannot consume the copper concentrate. After the approval of Freeport's copper concentrate export activities by the Indonesian government expired in 2024, as of the first quarter of this year, it had accumulated a large amount of concentrate inventory (it was rumored to be close to 400,000 tons at the beginning of the year), which had affected the production of the Grasberg copper mine. The copper production of the mine in the first half of the year was only 297,000 tons [2] - In 2025, Freeport's production and sales activities in Indonesia were not smooth. In 2024, the company's overall copper business in Indonesia sold 183.7 million pounds (about 830,000 tons). In 2025, it was initially expected to sell 162.5 million pounds (about 737,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared with last year), but only 44.3 million pounds (about 200,000 tons) were completed in the first half of the year (the pace accelerated in the third quarter). The company had previously lowered this year's expectation to 150 million pounds (about 680,000 tons) [2] - In March 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy issued a six-month copper concentrate export license to Freeport Indonesia (quota of about 1.27 million tons, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons), valid until September 16, 2025. As of mid-August, the company stated that it had exported about 65% of the quota and expected to use 90% of it before the expiration [3] - After the accident, FCX officially lowered the production guidance of the Grasberg copper mine. Although a small mining area that was not affected will resume production in mid - fourth quarter, Freeport Indonesia as a whole cannot complete the original sales target of 44.5 million pounds, about 200,000 tons, in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the affected mining area will be restarted in stages in 2026. The copper production target of Freeport Indonesia in 2026 will be directly reduced from 170 million pounds to 110 million pounds (from 770,000 tons to 498,000 tons), a reduction of 35%. The actual copper production of Freeport Indonesia this year may only be at the level of about 500,000 tons. The operation volume of Freeport Indonesia may not return to the pre - accident level until 2027 [3] - Since Freeport Indonesia has basically completed the approval volume of copper concentrate exports in 2025, it has basically entered a gap period for external spot exports again. The domestic copper concentrate import TC quotation has turned weak again since September. In terms of production, the mine is expected to have an obvious resupply in the late first quarter of next year or even in the second half of the year [3] Global Copper Concentrate Balance Table - In 2025, the severity of the accidents in global large mines is very significant. In the second quarter, the Kakula underground mine jointly operated by Ivanhoe and Zijin in the Democratic Republic of the Congo significantly lowered its production increase target for 2025 due to mine earthquakes or design reasons. In the third quarter, the operation of El Teniente under Codelco in Chile was also affected by an earthquake casualty accident, and it is expected to lose 20,000 - 30,000 tons of copper. The supply loss rate of copper concentrate this year may exceed 5% due to the force majeure of Freeport Indonesia [5] - In April 2025, the ICSG initially believed that the global copper concentrate increment this year could reach 2.3%, an increase of nearly 500,000 tons. Recently, the agency will update the copper concentrate expectation again and is likely to lower it to the level of 100,000 tons. The increment in 2026 will also be affected by this accident and be correspondingly adjusted. Therefore, the specific production resupply rhythm of the 330,000 - ton Cobre Panama copper mine of First Quantum in Panama becomes the key. At the same time, the annual processing fee negotiation in 2026 will fall into a passive situation again [5] Price Impact - The copper price rose sharply at night, fully digesting the short - term supply - side event. Technically, LME copper has the potential to continue to break through the upward pattern, but it is recommended to focus on the capital's allocation interest in the copper market. The short - term position of Shanghai copper weighted index increased sharply, but the total position is not significant compared with the previous performance when the price broke through the 80,000 mark. The copper market is still vigilant about the fluctuations of macro - economic indicators and sensitive to the actual consumption strength [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Market - **Current Price**: LME copper has recently pulled back below $10,000/t after reaching approximately $10,200/t [1][3] Core Insights - **Unexpected Strength**: Copper prices have been stronger than anticipated due to: - Continued strong US copper imports despite expectations of normalization [3] - An open import arbitrage in China through August, with rising physical premiums [3] - **Demand Weakness Signs**: - Sequential slowdown in China's end-use indicators has been noted [4] - Physical markers indicate weakness, with the SMM copper arbitrage turning negative and the Yangshan premium starting to decline [4][12] - US imports are normalizing, which may increase availability for non-US markets [4][12] Supply Dynamics - **Tightening Supply**: - Supply disruptions are accelerating, with Woodmac reporting 880 kt of disruptions year-to-date, equating to 3.7% of supply [5] - Freeport's temporary halt at Grasberg is contributing to supply concerns, with the mine operating at only 30% capacity [5] Market Outlook - **Price Expectations**: - A modest price downside is expected into year-end, but supportive macro conditions may present buying opportunities [6] - The 2026 balance for copper still appears tight, warranting close monitoring of China's demand signals [6] Additional Insights - **US Import Trends**: - US copper imports have normalized to approximately 15 kt/week, down from 50-60 kt/week [12] - The first copper delivery to a US LME warehouse since December 2023 indicates stockpiled metal is struggling to find a market [12] - **Positioning**: - Current positioning in the LME does not appear overstretched, which may provide some offset against price declines [12][28] Important Data Points - **Supply Disruptions**: 880 kt of disruptions reported, 3.7% of total supply [5] - **US Import Normalization**: Approximately 15 kt/week [12] - **Copper Price Fluctuations**: Recent high of ~$10,200/t, currently below $10,000/t [1][3] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the copper market, highlighting both the current state and future outlook.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons. The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025 [3][11]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情回顾 - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons [3]. 基本面（库存结构） - PMI: No specific content provided [7][9]. - Supply - demand balance: The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. A detailed China annual supply - demand balance table from 2018 - 2024 is provided [11][14]. - Inventory: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 市场结构 - Processing fee: The processing fee is at a low level [22]. - CFTC position: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [24]. - Spot - futures price difference: No specific content provided [27]. - Import profit: No specific content provided [30]. - Warehouse receipt: No specific content provided [21].

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Financial Officer of Marubeni stated that the significant fluctuations in copper prices in the United States have not impacted the company's copper business [1] Group 1 - The company has maintained stability in its copper operations despite market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the White House regarding a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper futures plummeting by 21% to $4.33 per pound, reflecting a major shift in market expectations and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while refined cathode copper and scrap copper are exempt from this tariff [3][4]. - This targeted tariff approach contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, leading to a rapid liquidation of accumulated copper inventories in the U.S. [2][4]. - The announcement has caused a reversal in market sentiment, with many traders who anticipated a broader tariff now facing unexpected losses [4][6]. Group 2: Inventory Dynamics - Since February, U.S. copper inventories have surged from under 100,000 tons to approximately 250,000 tons by July 30, driven by preemptive imports in anticipation of tariffs [6][7]. - In contrast, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories have decreased significantly, from about 270,900 tons in February to around 90,000 tons by early July, indicating a stark divergence in inventory trends between the two markets [6][7]. - The influx of copper into the U.S. is expected to continue, with projections indicating that total copper imports for the year could reach 1.36 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's 900,000 tons [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Chain Disruption - The new tariff policy is likely to disrupt global copper supply chains, pushing major copper-exporting countries like Chile to redirect their shipments towards Asia and Europe [8][9]. - The increased costs associated with tariffs may lead industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and renewable energy sectors, to seek domestic alternatives or adjust their supply chains [8][9]. - The overall impact of the tariff on the copper market could lead to a reevaluation of demand dynamics, particularly under the looming threat of a potential U.S. economic downturn [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products by the U.S. government has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper futures plummeting by 21% to a low of $4.33 per pound, triggering a mass exit of bullish investors from the market [1][2][3]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while refined copper and scrap copper are exempt from this tariff, leading to a sharp decline in copper prices as market expectations shifted [2][3]. - The new tariff structure contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, resulting in a rapid liquidation of accumulated copper inventories in the U.S. [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Following the tariff announcement, the COMEX copper inventory surged to 250,000 tons, up from less than 100,000 tons in February, indicating a significant shift in supply dynamics [7]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory has decreased by over 64% since mid-February, highlighting contrasting trends in global copper supply [7]. Price Fluctuations - The price of COMEX copper futures saw a year-to-date increase of over 40% before the tariff announcement, which has since narrowed to 8.87% as of July 31 [8]. - The volatility in copper prices is expected to continue, with potential downward pressure due to excess inventory and changing market conditions [12]. Supply Chain Disruption - The U.S. tariff policy is anticipated to disrupt global copper supply chains, with potential shifts in sourcing strategies for industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and renewable energy sectors [9]. - Major copper-exporting countries like Chile may redirect their supplies towards Asian and European markets, further affecting global copper supply and demand balance [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the U.S. copper import volume could reach 1.36 million tons this year, significantly higher than last year's 900,000 tons, which may lead to an oversupply situation in the market [8]. - The long-term implications of the tariff on U.S. domestic copper demand and pricing strategies remain uncertain, as companies may seek to adjust their supply chains in response to the new tariff structure [10].