Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons. The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025 [3][11]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情回顾 - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons [3]. 基本面（库存结构） - PMI: No specific content provided [7][9]. - Supply - demand balance: The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. A detailed China annual supply - demand balance table from 2018 - 2024 is provided [11][14]. - Inventory: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 市场结构 - Processing fee: The processing fee is at a low level [22]. - CFTC position: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [24]. - Spot - futures price difference: No specific content provided [27]. - Import profit: No specific content provided [30]. - Warehouse receipt: No specific content provided [21].

2025.07. 31 本文字数：2637，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 齐琦 坐上关税过山车的，又多了一项——从"溢价疯抢"到"抛售避险"，铜市多头集体出逃。 北京时间7月31日凌晨，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜期货主力合约盘中跳水，最低砸至4.33美 元/磅，较前日收盘重挫21%。 伦铜、沪铜跟跌，分别收跌0.8%、1.3%，价差急剧收敛。 随着市场预期反转，多头套利逻辑也由此崩塌。"全市场都在等待全部铜产品加税的坏消息，结果 只'坏了一半'，反而成了最大的黑天鹅。"一位对冲基金交易员对记者称，程序化卖盘和多头踩踏同 时出现，此前多头交易的是精炼铜短缺预期。 触发纽约铜价崩盘的是超预期的铜关税政策。白宫于当地时间7月30日发布公告，宣布8月1日起对 进口半成品铜等产品征收50%关税，精炼阴极铜、废铜等原料意外豁免。 这一"分类收税"与7月9日特朗普"对所有进口铜征收50%关税"的笼统表态形成巨大落差。此前市场 担忧"无差别打击"，疯狂将全球铜库存搬向美国；如今清单落地，巨量现货瞬间失去去向，多头踩 踏出逃。 "白宫此次不再采用一刀切高关税，而是精准锁定半成品及下游衍生产品，这意味着空调铜管件 ...

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in copper prices have been influenced by a weakening US dollar and inventory depletion in non-US regions, alongside domestic sentiment regarding "anti-involution" [2] - The US has announced trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines, and negotiations with the EU have eased, reducing uncertainty around tariffs [2] - The "anti-involution" sentiment has led to optimism in the industrial sector, but the actual impact on copper prices has been limited due to low domestic copper inventory and concerns over US import tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic smelting enterprises are facing challenges due to low processing fees, but strong performance in by-products like sulfuric acid and gold has provided some profit support [6] - The tightening supply of copper concentrate is expected to persist, with major mining companies reporting mixed production outcomes [4][6] - The upcoming increase in US import tariffs on copper, potentially rising from 25% to 50%, is expected to alter global copper trade dynamics, leading to increased inventories in non-US regions [8][10] Group 3 - The copper market is currently experiencing a demand lull, which is limiting upward price momentum despite low social inventory levels [10] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly upgraded its global economic growth forecasts, which may support copper demand in the near term [10] - The market is closely monitoring the August 1 deadline for US tariffs, which could lead to increased volatility in copper prices if implemented as scheduled [10]

Group 1 - COMEX copper prices reached a historical high before experiencing a sudden decline [1] - The upcoming deadline for U.S. copper import tariffs on August 1 may significantly alter market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, stated that global uncertainty is causing fluctuations in copper prices [1] Group 1 - Codelco is experiencing price volatility in copper due to various global uncertainties [1] - The fluctuations in copper prices are impacting the overall market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - A new cultural creative IPO has emerged from Hangzhou, Zhejiang, with investments from Shunwei and Xiaomi, but it faces risks associated with copper price fluctuations [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is positioned in the cultural creative industry and has attracted significant investment from notable firms like Shunwei and Xiaomi [1] - The IPO is seen as a strategic move to capitalize on the growing demand in the cultural sector [1] Group 2: Market Risks - The company is exposed to risks related to copper price volatility, which could impact its operational costs and profitability [1] - Fluctuations in copper prices may affect the overall market sentiment and investor confidence in the IPO [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent recovery in copper prices driven by low inventory levels outside the U.S. and underwhelming copper raw material production growth in the first half of the year [2][3] - LME and domestic refined copper inventories have reached historical lows of 90,000 tons and 120,000 tons respectively, contributing to concerns over supply shortages in the non-U.S. markets [2] - The demand for copper has remained resilient, with China's power grid investment growing nearly 20% year-on-year in the first half, offsetting weaknesses in the real estate sector [3] Group 2 - The current trading logic in the copper market is characterized by a historical supply tightening at the mining level, with significant pricing power shifting to global copper miners [3] - The outlook for the second half of the year hinges on two key factors: the cessation of the U.S. "short squeeze" on global end demand and the sustainability of strong demand [4] - Geopolitical risk premiums and intensified financial speculation have increased the volatility of copper prices, with expectations of trading within a range of 78,000 to 83,000 yuan/ton for the main copper futures contract in July [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting trends in copper production, highlighting Peru's increase in output against the backdrop of ongoing disruptions at Panama's copper mines, suggesting a potential shift in the global copper supply landscape [1] Group 1: Production Changes - Peru is experiencing an increase in copper production, which may influence global supply dynamics [1] - In contrast, Panama's copper mines are facing shutdowns, leading to a decrease in their output [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The changes in production levels in Peru and Panama could lead to fluctuations in copper prices in the future [1] - The article raises questions about how these developments will impact the overall copper market and pricing strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of U.S. tariffs on copper imports, initiated by former President Trump, which has led to dramatic fluctuations in copper prices and inventory movements in the global market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Market Reactions - On February 10, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, which quickly raised domestic prices [1]. - Following this, on February 26, the U.S. government extended tariffs to copper, marking it as a new battleground in the trade war [1][2]. - By March 4, the COMEX-LME copper price spread surged to $950/ton, prompting traders to transfer LME Asian inventories to the U.S., with a single-day drop of 9,050 tons in LME Asian inventory [1][2]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Inventory Changes - On March 13, copper prices soared to $5.25/pound (approximately $11,574/ton), a 25% increase from the 2024 average, while U.S. copper imports surged to 500,000 tons, far exceeding the normal level of 70,000 tons [2]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 12%, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches [2]. - After the unexpected exemption of copper products from tariffs on April 2, copper prices corrected downward, reaching a low of $8,105/ton amid fears of a global recession [2]. Group 3: Future Implications and Strategic Moves - The U.S. Department of Commerce is set to submit a report on copper tariffs by November 22, 2025, with a final decision expected by March 30, 2026, creating uncertainty in the copper market [3]. - As of May 12, COMEX copper inventory reached 163,400 tons, a six-year high, while LME inventory fell to 190,700 tons, indicating a significant shift in global copper stockpiles [3]. - The COMEX-LME price spread peaked at $1,643/ton on March 26, reflecting the market's volatility due to tariff uncertainties [3]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The article highlights the U.S. strategy to manipulate global copper trade through tariffs, aiming to force the return of copper-related manufacturing to the U.S. and curb China's copper industry growth [3][4]. - The relationship between U.S. manufacturing and copper prices is noted, with a strong correlation between China's manufacturing activity and copper prices, as China accounts for 56% of global refined copper consumption [6][7]. - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff strategies are seen as part of a broader effort by the U.S. to maintain its economic dominance amid rising competition from China [6][18].

Summary of Hailiang Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Hailiang Co., Ltd. has a foreign trade proportion of 40%, with a scale of approximately $4 billion, primarily achieved through exports from China and overseas bases [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Impact of Export Tax Rebate Cancellation - The cancellation of the 13% export tax rebate has a limited impact on Hailiang due to its use of bonded processing methods, which mitigate losses [5]. - The exit of smaller companies from the market due to the inability to absorb the costs of the tax rebate cancellation presents more business opportunities for Hailiang [5]. Tariff War Effects - Short-term: No direct impact from the tariff war as no new tariffs have been imposed during the 232 investigation phase [6]. - Mid-term: Even with potential tariff increases, Hailiang's Thai base remains competitive due to the U.S. electrolytic copper industry's reliance on imports [6]. - Long-term: The Texas factory, once operational, will meet U.S. demand and provide high-value products, enhancing competitiveness [6][7]. Market Demand and Growth - Domestic demand is affected by the real estate sector, but appliance subsidy policies support air conditioning demand [4][10]. - Internationally, the European market is stable, India shows strong growth, and Hailiang's market share in the U.S. is increasing [4][11]. - Hailiang's export volume reached over 1 million tons in 2024, with a target of 30,000 tons for 2025, focusing on the U.S. and Indian markets [3][28][29]. Copper Price Volatility - Copper price fluctuations significantly impact the industry; Hailiang prefers stable prices and has developed capabilities to handle price volatility [14][15]. - The company has experienced multiple copper price cycles and has strategies in place to manage these fluctuations [14][15]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The Texas factory has an investment scale of 100,000 tons, with a current capacity of 1,100 tons, aiming to reach 1,600 to 1,800 tons [17][20]. - The factory's construction has progressed well despite delays caused by the pandemic, with equipment fully installed [21][20]. Future Sales and Profit Goals - Hailiang aims for a 25% increase in sales volume and at least a 15% increase in profit for 2025, primarily driven by rising processing fees and volume growth [28]. - The company plans to increase exports to the U.S. and India significantly, with expectations of substantial growth in other major markets as well [29]. Additional Important Information - Hailiang's products, including copper fittings and bars, are widely used in sectors such as renewable energy vehicles and automation [13]. - The company has a strong presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand, which serves as a key supply source [12]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with companies like Jinlong achieving warehouse management, intensifying competition [24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from Hailiang Co., Ltd.'s conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning, market dynamics, and future growth prospects.