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中远海控(601919)季报点评:25Q3归母净利同比-55%/环比+63%至95.3亿 持续推进分红回购 集运龙头长期价值向好
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-06 08:33
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant drop in Q3 performance, while also announcing a share buyback plan to enhance shareholder value [1][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 167.6 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year; Q3 revenue was 58.5 billion yuan, down 20.4% year-on-year but up 14.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 27.07 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year; Q3 net profit was 9.53 billion yuan, down 55.1% year-on-year but up 63.2% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Excluding non-recurring items, net profit for the first three quarters was 26.97 billion yuan, down 29.1% year-on-year; Q3 was 9.50 billion yuan, down 55.3% year-on-year but up 63.1% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Business Segments - In Q3, the estimated revenue from container shipping was approximately 56.23 billion yuan, down 21.2% year-on-year, while supply chain revenue (excluding shipping) was 11.31 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [3]. - Container shipping line revenue was 51.78 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year but up 15% quarter-on-quarter; performance varied across routes, with significant declines in trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes [3]. - Q3 container volume was 6.903 million TEU, up 4.9% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Pricing and Cost Analysis - The average revenue per container in Q3 was 1,052 USD/TEU, down 27% year-on-year but up 14% quarter-on-quarter; foreign trade container revenue was 1,276 USD/TEU, down 26% year-on-year but up 16% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Estimated cost per container in Q3 was approximately 879 USD/TEU, down 2.3% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 263.9 USD/TEU, down 57.7% year-on-year [3]. Profitability Metrics - Q3 EBIT margin for container shipping was approximately 20.9%, down 18.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 7.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; net profit margin was 16.2%, down 15.7 percentage points year-on-year but up 5.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Terminal business revenue in Q3 was 3.08 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.0%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Market Outlook - For Q4, expectations are for price support in main shipping routes due to reduced capacity and upcoming contract renewals, despite concerns over geopolitical events affecting shipping routes [4]. - The company maintains a positive outlook on the value of leading container shipping networks, supported by a strong balance sheet and stable shareholder returns [5]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have net profits of 31.04 billion, 20.23 billion, and 21.78 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 11, and 11 times [5]. - Current valuations for H and A shares are seen as having a safety margin, with significant pessimistic expectations already priced in [6].