Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in shipping demand, particularly for routes to the U.S., resulting in significant increases in freight rates and a near-complete booking of shipping capacity by the end of May [1][2][4]. Group 1: Shipping Demand and Capacity - Since the issuance of the joint statement on May 12, there has been a dramatic increase in shipping demand, with booking volumes for U.S. routes rising 2 to 3 times compared to before the announcement [1][2]. - By the end of May, shipping capacity for routes to the U.S. was nearly sold out, with freight rates increasing by over 40% [1][2]. - The demand surge is attributed to U.S. importers placing large orders starting May 13, leading to a temporary capacity overload on routes from China to the U.S. [2]. Group 2: Freight Rate Increases - As of late May, freight rates for the West Coast of the U.S. reached approximately $3,500 per FEU, while rates for the East Coast were around $5,000 per FEU, both having increased by $1,000 per FEU since the beginning of the month [2]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported that as of May 23, freight rates for exports to the U.S. had risen by 6.0% and 5.3% for the West and East Coasts, respectively, with cumulative increases of about 40% and 30% compared to earlier in the month [2][3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Diverging Opinions - The freight forwarding industry anticipates that rates will continue to rise in the short term, while foreign trade companies are more cautious, expecting that increased shipping capacity in June will lead to a price correction [5][6]. - There is a significant divergence in opinions between freight forwarders, who expect further rate increases, and foreign trade companies, which are adopting a more conservative approach due to uncertainties regarding future shipping costs and potential congestion at U.S. ports [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the long shipping cycles contribute to a cautious stance among foreign trade companies, leading to a slowdown in new order placements [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The container shipping market is in a state of game regarding the peak season height and the timing of the peak. The spot freight rate is gradually rising, but the long - term height is affected by factors such as tariff trade wars. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may lead to an increase in costs and affect the market [4][6]. - The dry bulk shipping market is generally in a downward trend recently. The freight rate of Capesize ships is expected to decline in the short term, while the freight rate of medium - sized ships is expected to fluctuate. The conflict in the Middle East may affect the freight rate in the region [15][21]. - The oil tanker transportation market has seen a rise in sentiment due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [25]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Data - **Futures Disk**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of different EC contracts showed different trends. For example, EC2508 closed at 1875 points, down 0.79% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed. The monthly spread structure of different contract combinations also had corresponding price changes [2]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The weekly container freight rates of different routes showed different trends. For example, the SCFIS European line was 1937.14 points, up 14.11% week - on - week, while the SCFIS US West line was 2083.46 points, down 28.37% week - on - week [2]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Analysis**: The market is in a game about the peak season height and timing. The spot freight rate is rising with the implementation of some price increases. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may lead to an increase in costs such as insurance premiums [4][5][6]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and the escalation of geopolitics may boost sentiment. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Data - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) fell 3.5% to 1689 points on June 20, with a weekly decline of 11%. The Capesize ship freight index (BCI) and the Panamax ship freight index (BPI) also declined, while the Supramax and Handysize ship freight indices rose [15][17]. - **Shipping Data**: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3506.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.0 million tons. The expected soybean export volume in Brazil in June is 1437 million tons [16][18]. Market Analysis - The freight rate of Capesize ships is expected to decline in the short term due to the end of the Australian mining companies' fiscal year impulse. The freight rate of medium - sized ships is expected to fluctuate. The conflict in the Middle East may affect the regional freight rate [21]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Data - **Freight Index**: On June 20, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1054, up 1.35% week - on - week and down 10.75% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 708, down 0.42% week - on - week and down 11.06% year - on - year [24][25]. - **Port Congestion**: The number of global crude oil tanker port calls and product tanker port calls showed little change compared with the previous period [24]. Market Analysis - The short - term increase in freight rates is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of Maersk on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route were revised down in the first week of July, while some shipping companies still intended to raise prices in the second half of the month [1]. - The supply and demand of the US routes both increased. The freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West of the US reached a high level and then declined, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether the prices have peaked [3]. - In August, it is the traditional peak season. There is still an expectation of price increase, and attention should be paid to the peak - time of the European route freight rates in 2025 and the downward slope of the subsequent freight rates [7]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a greater impact on oil transportation and relatively less direct impact on container transportation [6]. - The delay of ships dragged down the SCFIS on June 16th, and the 06 contract will gradually return to the "real - world" trading as the delivery deadline approaches [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of June 20, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 88,168.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,531.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1438.00, 1236.90, 1891.50, 2022.20, 1406.10, and 1590.50 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on June 13th was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on June 16th was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU. Among them, 37 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 557,200 TEU; 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 142,400 TEU [8]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining two weeks of June was 321,000 TEU, the monthly weekly average capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in July was 350,000 TEU. The capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered rapidly in June [3]. - In June, the capacity pressure on the European routes decreased. The capacity of the Shanghai - European route in the last week of June was 250,200 TEU. The monthly weekly average capacity in July was 279,500 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in August was 271,300 TEU. There were a total of 8 blank sailings in July [4]. IV. Supply Chain - The delay of ships such as EVER MERCY, HMM HAMBURG, ONE INTELLIGENCE, and MSC BIANCA SILVIA affected the SCFIS on June 16th, and it was expected to continue to have an impact on June 23rd. The delay of ships will have a negative impact on the final valuation [5]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US routes increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the freight rates soared under the background of supply - demand mismatch. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but the direct impact on the global container shipping market is relatively small as the Middle East is not the core hub of global container trade [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates on the US route increased significantly in June due to the supply-demand mismatch, but there are signs that the rates to the US West have peaked. The freight rates on the European route are expected to rise in July and August, and the peak time of the European route freight rates in 2025 is unclear. The 08 contract is in a fierce game between expectation and reality, and it is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently. The main strategy is that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [3][6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **European Route**: In the second half of June, the prices of most shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased. For example, HPL's shipping schedule quotes from June to July increased gradually; some shipping companies such as MSC announced price increase letters for the second half of June. The average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU. The expected delivery settlement price of the 06 contract is around 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract. There is still an expectation of price increase in July and August, and CMA's July shipping schedule quote on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by about 1000 US dollars/FEU compared with the second half of June [1][2][5][6]. - **US Route**: The freight rates on the US route increased significantly in June due to the supply-demand mismatch. The demand on the China - US route increased rapidly with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. However, there are signs that the freight rates to the US West have peaked, such as the decrease in the prices of Maersk on the Shanghai - Los Angeles and Shanghai - New York routes in the second week of the second half of June [3]. 2. Shipping Capacity - **European Route**: The shipping capacity pressure on the European route decreased in June. The average weekly shipping capacity in the remaining three weeks of June on the Shanghai - European route was about 280,600 TEU, and there were 6 blank sailings in total. The average weekly shipping capacity in July is 279,600 TEU, and there are 5 blank sailings in total [4]. - **US Route**: The shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. The average weekly shipping capacity in the remaining three weeks of June was 361,000 TEU, the average monthly weekly shipping capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the average weekly shipping capacity in July is 326,400 TEU [3]. 3. Geopolitical Situation The date of the next round of Iran - US talks has not been determined. Iran will respond to the US proposal in the next few days, and the Omani Foreign Minister will then determine the time and place of the next round of negotiations [2]. 4. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of June 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 87,143 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 67,155 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract closed at 1376.50, EC2604 contract at 1225.50, EC2506 contract at 1948.60, EC2508 contract at 2065.60, EC2510 contract at 1343.70, and EC2512 contract at 1520.70 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West) price was 5606 US dollars/FEU (the lowest in the year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6939 US dollars/FEU (the lowest in the year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). On June 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1622.81 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2185.08 points [3][7]. 5. Container Ship Delivery In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 7, 2025, 120 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 940,000 TEU. Among them, 36 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 544,000 TEU; 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the container shipping market, highlighting factors such as CMA's price cut, fluctuations in freight rate indices, the impact of the US court ruling on the Trump administration, and the need to monitor multiple factors including spot freight rates, tariff policies, and the final ruling result. It also provides short - term, arbitrage, and long - term trading strategies [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Indices - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% [3]. - On May 30, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1676.25 points, up 51.55% from the previous period; the European route was 1067.59 points, up 36.25%; the US West route was 3585.23 points, up 89.23% [3]. - On May 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 2072.71 points, up 486.59 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1587 USD/TEU, up 20.50%; the US West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 57.92% [3]. - On May 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1117.61 points, up 0.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1375.62 points, down 1.2%; the US West route was 944.06 points, up 4.0% [3]. Market Analysis - CMA cut the online freight rates for the second half of June, leading to intense long - short competition and significant market fluctuations. Risk - preferring investors can consider lightly shorting at high prices [2]. - The US court's ruling on the Trump administration may boost the macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak. There may be a rush - shipping situation due to the potential easing of the Sino - US trade war in 90 days. Attention should be paid to the final result of the court ruling, the 90 - day spot freight rate range, and the terminal demand feedback under the tariff policy easing [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the basis - narrowing logic. For the 2508 contract, when it rebounds above 2250, it is recommended to lightly short with a stop - loss set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Currently, focus on the court ruling result and mainly adopt a positive - spread structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent trend [4]. Contract Information - On June 5, the main contract 2508 closed at 2146.3, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 73,400 lots and an open interest of 47,300 lots, a decrease of 707 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]. Other Information - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 48.9, and composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [3]. - The May Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [3]. - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3, service PMI was 52.3, and composite PMI was 52.1 [3]. - China has added over 100 international air freight routes as of the end of May this year, with 26 new routes in May. The new routes are mainly in Asia and Europe, and the main cargo types include cross - border e - commerce goods, electronics, etc. [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in export orders, creating a complex situation in the U.S. shipping market characterized by both high demand and significant operational challenges [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shipping market is experiencing a dual scenario: a shortage of containers and tight capacity leading to rising prices, while many freight forwarders face cancellations of previously booked slots [1][2] - The phenomenon of "container abandonment" is re-emerging, where shipping companies cancel previously confirmed bookings due to capacity constraints [3][5] - The current shipping crisis is exacerbated by a significant gap between export volumes and available shipping slots, with reports indicating a 20% shortfall in available capacity in the East China region [7] Group 2: Price Trends - The Shanghai export container settlement price index for the U.S. West Coast reached 1719.79, an increase of 18.9% compared to the previous period [10] - Shipping rates for 40-foot containers have surged, with rates for the U.S. West Coast increasing to 6100 USD and the East Coast to 7100 USD for early June [10] - Prior to this price surge, the cost for a 40-foot container was approximately 2250 USD, indicating a significant increase in shipping costs [10] Group 3: Capacity Issues - The shipping capacity crisis is attributed to multiple factors, including geopolitical issues affecting shipping routes and a lag in capacity adjustments by shipping companies [8] - The transition of shipping capacity to more profitable routes has resulted in a 15% decrease in vessel deployment on the U.S. West Coast in April [8] - The industry anticipates a gradual recovery of shipping capacity by late June, which may help stabilize prices [9][11] Group 4: Regulatory Recommendations - Industry experts suggest that regulatory bodies should engage with shipping companies to address abnormal price fluctuations and contract cancellations, promoting transparency in the market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in shipping demand and freight rates on the China-US route following the reduction of tariffs, with expectations of continued price increases in the short term due to supply-demand imbalances [1][3][5]. Group 1: Shipping Demand and Freight Rates - Since the announcement of the China-US tariff reduction on May 12, there has been a significant increase in shipping bookings, particularly for routes to the US, with booking volumes rising by 53% from May 14 to May 21 [3][5]. - By the end of May, shipping capacity for routes to the US was nearly sold out, with freight rates increasing by over 40% compared to early May, reaching approximately $3,500 per FEU for the West Coast and $5,000 per FEU for the East Coast [2][4]. - The demand surge is attributed to US importers placing large orders in anticipation of major holidays in the second half of the year, leading to a temporary capacity crunch on the China-US routes [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Expectations - The shipping market is currently characterized by a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with freight forwarders predicting that rates will continue to rise in the next 90 days, while foreign trade companies hope for a price correction as shipping capacity is restored [1][5][7]. - Some shipping companies are reallocating their fleets to meet the increased demand on the China-US routes, with expectations that capacity will significantly rebound in June [6][7]. - Despite the current surge in shipping demand, foreign trade companies are adopting a cautious approach to new orders due to uncertainties regarding future freight rates and potential congestion at US ports [8][9]. Group 3: Pricing Trends and Market Sentiment - Freight rates for June have already increased to over $6,000 per FEU, with further increases anticipated if booking volumes remain high [7]. - There is a divergence in sentiment between freight forwarders, who expect continued price increases, and foreign trade companies, who believe that increased capacity will lead to a price decline [7][9]. - Concerns about the sustainability of the current freight rates are prevalent among foreign trade companies, as they navigate the complexities of long-term contracts and the potential for speculative pricing in the market [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in shipping demand, particularly on the U.S. routes, resulting in significant increases in freight rates and a near-complete booking of shipping slots by the end of May [1][2][3]. Shipping Demand and Freight Rates - Since the issuance of the joint statement on May 12, there has been a dramatic increase in shipping demand, with booking volumes for U.S. routes rising by 53% from May 14 to May 21, compared to the previous week [2]. - By the end of May, freight rates for the U.S. West Coast reached approximately $3,500 per FEU, while rates for the East Coast were around $5,000 per FEU, marking increases of $1,000 per FEU from earlier in the month [3]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported that as of May 23, freight rates for exports to the U.S. West and East coasts had increased by approximately 40% and 30%, respectively, compared to rates from May 9 [3][4]. Global Shipping Impact - The surge in U.S. shipping rates has also influenced global shipping rates, with the rate for exports to Europe increasing by 14.1% as of May 23 [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The shipping industry anticipates that freight rates will continue to rise due to a shortage of shipping capacity, with projections indicating potential increases of over $1,000 per FEU in June [6]. - Despite the expectation of rising rates, some freight forwarders believe that increased shipping capacity in June may lead to a stabilization or decrease in rates [7]. Cautious Approach from Exporters - Exporters are adopting a cautious stance towards new orders due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and shipping capacity, with many preferring to wait until they can better predict costs and delivery times [8]. - The long shipping cycles, particularly for the East Coast, which can take up to 85 days, further complicate the situation for exporters [8].