Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant drop in Q3 performance, while also announcing a share buyback plan to enhance shareholder value [1][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 167.6 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year; Q3 revenue was 58.5 billion yuan, down 20.4% year-on-year but up 14.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 27.07 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year; Q3 net profit was 9.53 billion yuan, down 55.1% year-on-year but up 63.2% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Excluding non-recurring items, net profit for the first three quarters was 26.97 billion yuan, down 29.1% year-on-year; Q3 was 9.50 billion yuan, down 55.3% year-on-year but up 63.1% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Business Segments - In Q3, the estimated revenue from container shipping was approximately 56.23 billion yuan, down 21.2% year-on-year, while supply chain revenue (excluding shipping) was 11.31 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [3]. - Container shipping line revenue was 51.78 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year but up 15% quarter-on-quarter; performance varied across routes, with significant declines in trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes [3]. - Q3 container volume was 6.903 million TEU, up 4.9% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Pricing and Cost Analysis - The average revenue per container in Q3 was 1,052 USD/TEU, down 27% year-on-year but up 14% quarter-on-quarter; foreign trade container revenue was 1,276 USD/TEU, down 26% year-on-year but up 16% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Estimated cost per container in Q3 was approximately 879 USD/TEU, down 2.3% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 263.9 USD/TEU, down 57.7% year-on-year [3]. Profitability Metrics - Q3 EBIT margin for container shipping was approximately 20.9%, down 18.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 7.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; net profit margin was 16.2%, down 15.7 percentage points year-on-year but up 5.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Terminal business revenue in Q3 was 3.08 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.0%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Market Outlook - For Q4, expectations are for price support in main shipping routes due to reduced capacity and upcoming contract renewals, despite concerns over geopolitical events affecting shipping routes [4]. - The company maintains a positive outlook on the value of leading container shipping networks, supported by a strong balance sheet and stable shareholder returns [5]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have net profits of 31.04 billion, 20.23 billion, and 21.78 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 11, and 11 times [5]. - Current valuations for H and A shares are seen as having a safety margin, with significant pessimistic expectations already priced in [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 12 contract is moderately high. With subsequent price increases and the signing of long - term agreements from November to December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips, waiting for a possible decline in November (if the expected decline in the second half of November fails to materialize and causes the market to fall back) [2][13] - The valuation of the 02 contract is difficult to determine, with high uncertainty. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of the 12 contract in the next month [2][13] - The 04 contract is a off - season contract, which fluctuates within a narrow range under the current peak - season logic. Given the greater supply pressure next year, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling on rallies [2][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1843.8, down 1.45%, with a basis of - 531.1. Yesterday's trading volume was 17,598, and the open interest decreased by 1,792 to 30,114 [2][13] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1583.0, down 1.43%, with a basis of - 270.3. Yesterday's trading volume was 4,555, and the open interest increased by 343 to 16,233 [2][13] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1175.9, down 1.55%, with a basis of 136.8. Yesterday's trading volume was 1,891 [2][13] - FC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1403.3, down 1.38%, with a basis of - 90.6. Yesterday's trading volume was 96, and the open interest was 1,411 [2][13] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1487.5, down 2.22%, with a basis of - 174.8. Yesterday's trading volume was 119, and the open interest increased by 24 to 1,324 [2][13] - FC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1132.5, down 0.63%, with a basis of 180.2. Yesterday's trading volume was 388, and the open interest increased by 150 to 1,062 [2][13] Month - spread Information - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's value was 667.9, a decrease of 8.7 compared to the previous day [2][13] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's value was 260.8, a decrease of 4.2 compared to the previous day [2][13] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 407.1, a decrease of 4.5 compared to the previous day [2][13] Index Information - "ટેવાન ટિ": Updated every Monday, announced on October 27, 2025. The current value is 1312.71 points, up 15.11% from the previous period and 10.52% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - SCFI (European Line): Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 1246 US dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period and 7.21% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - CCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 1293.12 points, up 1.99% from the previous period and down 1.49% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - NCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period and 14.96% from the period before the previous one [2][13] Market Analysis - On Wednesday, the market fluctuated and slightly declined. In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, and the PA alliance led the price reduction [2][13] - In the second half of November, affected by the previous congestion at European ports, 4 ships may not be able to return to Shanghai Port in time, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation in November. It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies take actions such as blank sailings or re - allocations [2][13] - The market's neutral expectation for the freight rate in November is 2000 - 2200 US dollars (1400 - 1540 points). It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of the month [2][13] Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for early November (Week 45) [2][13] - In Week 44, the offline quotes were PA 1400, GEMINI 1600, and OA 1800 US dollars [2][13] - In November, shipping companies have announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the market. MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations. Subsequently, shipping companies lowered the prices to 1800 - 2300 US dollars, with a central range of 2000 - 2100 US dollars [2][13] News on Price Changes - On Monday, HMM reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HPL to 2335 US dollars, ONE to 2135 US dollars, and MSC to 265 US dollars [2][13] - On Tuesday, MSK reduced the price to 2200 US dollars, OOCL to 2150 US dollars, and YML reduced the price of a single route to 1900 US dollars [2][13] - On Wednesday, MSK announced a peak - season surcharge of 300 US dollars/FEU for long - term agreements. YML reduced the price of a single route to 1850 US dollars [2][13] - On Thursday, ONE reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HMM to 1800 US dollars. OOCL reduced the price of a single route to 2100 US dollars, and the prices of other routes were 2200 - 2300 US dollars [2][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The shipping industry is facing a transition between the off - season and peak season, with airlines' price increases likely to be difficult to implement. The market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and rising bargaining power of shippers" before the new long - term cooperation period in 2026. The 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended. [7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Rate Index - **Current Values**: Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1160, China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1015, SCFI - US West is 1468, SCFIS - US West is 876, SCFI - US East is 2452, SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1068. - **Percentage Changes**: SCFI increased by 4.12%, CCFI decreased by 6.68%, SCFI - US West increased by 0.55%, SCFIS - US West decreased by 4.89%, SCFI - US East increased by 2.81%, SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 9.99%. [5] Contract Data - **Current Values**: EC2506 is 1248.6, EC2608 is 1393.6, EC2510 is 1121.1, EC2512 is 1571.0, EC5602 is 1338.0, EC2604 is 1069.0. - **Percentage Changes**: EC2506 decreased by 2.26%, EC2608 decreased by 3.13%, EC2510 increased by 0.11%, EC2512 decreased by 6.93%, EC5602 decreased by 4.84%, EC2604 decreased by 4.55%. [5] Position Data - **Current Values**: EC2606 position is 1516, EC2608 position is 1041, EC2410 position is 18352, EC2412 position is 28056, EC2602 position is 9768, EC2604 position is 12963. - **Change Values**: EC2606 increased by 146, EC2608 increased by 133, EC2410 decreased by 2678, EC2412 increased by 3834, EC2602 increased by 1025, EC2604 increased by 1876. [5] Month - Spread Data - **Current Values**: The 10 - 12 month - spread is - 449.9, the 12 - 2 month - spread is 233.0, the 12 - 4 month - spread is 502.0. - **Change Values**: The 10 - 12 month - spread increased by 118.2, the 12 - 2 month - spread decreased by 49.0, the 12 - 4 month - spread decreased by 66.1. [5] 2. Spot Price - In October, the prices of GEMINI dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC reported 1600 in early October. The overall mainstream quotation range for the second half of October is 2000 - 2200. [7] 3. Logic - In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargoes, and freight rates once dropped to $1300/FEU. Maersk first announced a price increase of $400/FEU for the second half of October, but in October, both supply and demand decreased, and it is likely to return to the off - season market. The negotiation on the Gaza issue has created a theoretical possibility for the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, but the shipping industry still faces "three hurdles". [8] 4. Strategy - A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is facing multiple challenges. Cargo transportation through the Kazakh border has been temporarily suspended due to disagreements between the governments of Kazakhstan and Russia. MSC has cancelled 5 more voyages during the Golden Week off - season, leading to a reduction in capacity on the Pacific and Asia - Europe routes. The booking volume between China and the US has declined significantly, and tariffs remain a key variable for market fluctuations. The EC market is showing a rebound, mainly due to MSK's stable 10 - second - week freight rates and a price increase in the second half of October. In the European shipping market, the freight rates are expected to fall in late October and recover in November [5][6][7]. 3. Key Points by Content Shipping Market News - Cargo passage through the Kazakh border is temporarily suspended due to government disagreements, and the negotiation completion date is unknown. The Polish - Belarusian border may open this Tuesday, Wednesday, or by the end of the month [5]. - MSC cancels 5 more voyages during the Golden Week off - season, with a 14% reduction in Pacific route capacity and a 17% reduction in Asia - Europe route capacity [5]. - In the first week of September, China - US booking volume decreased by nearly 26% year - on - year, and US - China booking volume decreased by 18%. Tariffs are a key variable [5]. Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 14.31%, and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 0.45%. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also declined [4]. - **EC Contracts**: Most EC contracts showed price increases, with EC2512 rising by 4.50%. Some contracts also had changes in positions, such as a 488 - increase in EC2412 positions [4]. - **Month - spread**: The 10 - 12 month - spread decreased by 58.7, the 12 - 2 month - spread increased by 20.6, and the 12 - 4 month - spread increased by 46.7 [4]. EC Market - The EC market is rebounding. MSK's 10 - second - week freight rates remained stable at 1400, and the rates in late October increased by 400 compared to early October [6]. Spot Price - This week, the GEMINI October price dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500 [7]. Strategy - A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend. The suspension of cargo movement at the Kazakh border, potential opening of the Polish border, cancellation of voyages during the Golden Week, and fluctuations in booking volumes and tariffs are all influencing the market. The key variable remains tariffs, and the situation may deteriorate further if the tariff suspension period ends [8]. - The EC market is in a weak and volatile state. The unchanged MSK10 October second - week freight rate opening price has increased the expectation of a halt in price decline [9]. - In the European shipping market, the cargo volume is expected to bottom out in October and turn around in November. The shipping companies' "rolling pool" strategy during the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. The off - season reduction in ships has limited impact on the market [10]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped to 1198, a decrease of 14.31% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1120, a 0.45% decline. SCFI - West America dropped 30.97% to 1636, SCFIS - West America fell 11.56% to 1193, SCFI - East America decreased 22.68% to 2557, and SCFI - Northwest Europe dropped 8.84% to 1052. SCFIS - Northwest Europe declined 17.15% to 1193, and SCFI - Mediterranean fell 5.75% to 1638 [6]. - **Contract Data**: Most shipping futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, EC2506 decreased 2.28% to 1421.3, EC2608 dropped 1.03% to 1592.5. Some contract positions changed, with EC2608's position increasing by 14 to 501, while EC2410's position decreased by 4522 to 41508 [6][7]. 3.2 Market News - Cargo movement at the Kazakh border has been temporarily suspended due to a disagreement between the Kazakh and Russian governments on the customs union agreement. The Polish border may open this Tuesday or Wednesday or by the end of this month. MSC has canceled 5 more voyages during the Golden Week off - season, with the capacity of the Pacific route reduced by about 14% and the Asia - Europe route by about 17%. In early September, China - US booking volumes decreased by nearly 26% year - on - year, and US - China booking volumes dropped by 18% [8]. 3.3 EC Market - The EC market is in a weak and volatile state. The unchanged MSK10 October second - week freight rate opening price has increased the expectation of a halt in price decline [9]. 3.4 Spot Price - This week, the Gemini October upper - half price dropped to 1500, QA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500 [10]. 3.5 Strategy - A positive spread strategy for the 10 - 12 period is recommended [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping industry is currently facing significant cargo - collection pressure. The freight rate center has declined, and the 10 - month contract is mainly short - allocated while the 12 - month contract has the potential for long - allocation after the freight rate bottom becomes clear [4][5]. - The EC2510 contract is relatively safe to short at high prices, but extreme short - chasing is not advisable. For the 12 - month contract, attention should be paid to the bottom of this round of freight rate decline, and long - allocation can be gradually carried out as the freight rate bottom becomes clear [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's 36 - week price is 1315/2210, and the 37 - week price is 1140/1900 (currently up to 1170/1960). HPL - SPOT's price for the second half of September is 1135/1835 [1]. - Geopolitical situation: The Yemeni Houthi rebels stated that they would retaliate for the death of several important members in an Israeli air strike, which may affect shipping in the region [2]. 3.2 Capacity Analysis - China - European basic port capacity: The average weekly capacity in September is 294,700 TEU, and in October is 276,600 TEU. There are 3 blank sailings in September and 10 TBNs and 3 blank sailings in October. HPL has announced two additional vessels for October [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - 10 - month contract: It is a quarterly contract, mainly short - allocated. The current freight rate center has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the 10 - month contract is equivalent to a spot price of around $1900/FEU. Attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price [4]. - 12 - month contract: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If vessels on the US route are transferred to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices [5]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Market - Futures market: As of September 1, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts is 81,845.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 43,901.00 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices [6]. - Spot market: On September 1, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1773.60 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1013.90 points [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in shipping demand, particularly for routes to the U.S., resulting in significant increases in freight rates and a near-complete booking of shipping capacity by the end of May [1][2][4]. Group 1: Shipping Demand and Capacity - Since the issuance of the joint statement on May 12, there has been a dramatic increase in shipping demand, with booking volumes for U.S. routes rising 2 to 3 times compared to before the announcement [1][2]. - By the end of May, shipping capacity for routes to the U.S. was nearly sold out, with freight rates increasing by over 40% [1][2]. - The demand surge is attributed to U.S. importers placing large orders starting May 13, leading to a temporary capacity overload on routes from China to the U.S. [2]. Group 2: Freight Rate Increases - As of late May, freight rates for the West Coast of the U.S. reached approximately $3,500 per FEU, while rates for the East Coast were around $5,000 per FEU, both having increased by $1,000 per FEU since the beginning of the month [2]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported that as of May 23, freight rates for exports to the U.S. had risen by 6.0% and 5.3% for the West and East Coasts, respectively, with cumulative increases of about 40% and 30% compared to earlier in the month [2][3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Diverging Opinions - The freight forwarding industry anticipates that rates will continue to rise in the short term, while foreign trade companies are more cautious, expecting that increased shipping capacity in June will lead to a price correction [5][6]. - There is a significant divergence in opinions between freight forwarders, who expect further rate increases, and foreign trade companies, which are adopting a more conservative approach due to uncertainties regarding future shipping costs and potential congestion at U.S. ports [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the long shipping cycles contribute to a cautious stance among foreign trade companies, leading to a slowdown in new order placements [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The container shipping market is in a state of game regarding the peak season height and the timing of the peak. The spot freight rate is gradually rising, but the long - term height is affected by factors such as tariff trade wars. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may lead to an increase in costs and affect the market [4][6]. - The dry bulk shipping market is generally in a downward trend recently. The freight rate of Capesize ships is expected to decline in the short term, while the freight rate of medium - sized ships is expected to fluctuate. The conflict in the Middle East may affect the freight rate in the region [15][21]. - The oil tanker transportation market has seen a rise in sentiment due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [25]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Data - **Futures Disk**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of different EC contracts showed different trends. For example, EC2508 closed at 1875 points, down 0.79% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed. The monthly spread structure of different contract combinations also had corresponding price changes [2]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The weekly container freight rates of different routes showed different trends. For example, the SCFIS European line was 1937.14 points, up 14.11% week - on - week, while the SCFIS US West line was 2083.46 points, down 28.37% week - on - week [2]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Analysis**: The market is in a game about the peak season height and timing. The spot freight rate is rising with the implementation of some price increases. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may lead to an increase in costs such as insurance premiums [4][5][6]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and the escalation of geopolitics may boost sentiment. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Data - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) fell 3.5% to 1689 points on June 20, with a weekly decline of 11%. The Capesize ship freight index (BCI) and the Panamax ship freight index (BPI) also declined, while the Supramax and Handysize ship freight indices rose [15][17]. - **Shipping Data**: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3506.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.0 million tons. The expected soybean export volume in Brazil in June is 1437 million tons [16][18]. Market Analysis - The freight rate of Capesize ships is expected to decline in the short term due to the end of the Australian mining companies' fiscal year impulse. The freight rate of medium - sized ships is expected to fluctuate. The conflict in the Middle East may affect the regional freight rate [21]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Data - **Freight Index**: On June 20, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1054, up 1.35% week - on - week and down 10.75% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 708, down 0.42% week - on - week and down 11.06% year - on - year [24][25]. - **Port Congestion**: The number of global crude oil tanker port calls and product tanker port calls showed little change compared with the previous period [24]. Market Analysis - The short - term increase in freight rates is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of Maersk on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route were revised down in the first week of July, while some shipping companies still intended to raise prices in the second half of the month [1]. - The supply and demand of the US routes both increased. The freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West of the US reached a high level and then declined, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether the prices have peaked [3]. - In August, it is the traditional peak season. There is still an expectation of price increase, and attention should be paid to the peak - time of the European route freight rates in 2025 and the downward slope of the subsequent freight rates [7]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a greater impact on oil transportation and relatively less direct impact on container transportation [6]. - The delay of ships dragged down the SCFIS on June 16th, and the 06 contract will gradually return to the "real - world" trading as the delivery deadline approaches [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of June 20, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 88,168.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,531.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1438.00, 1236.90, 1891.50, 2022.20, 1406.10, and 1590.50 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on June 13th was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on June 16th was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU. Among them, 37 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 557,200 TEU; 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 142,400 TEU [8]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining two weeks of June was 321,000 TEU, the monthly weekly average capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in July was 350,000 TEU. The capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered rapidly in June [3]. - In June, the capacity pressure on the European routes decreased. The capacity of the Shanghai - European route in the last week of June was 250,200 TEU. The monthly weekly average capacity in July was 279,500 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in August was 271,300 TEU. There were a total of 8 blank sailings in July [4]. IV. Supply Chain - The delay of ships such as EVER MERCY, HMM HAMBURG, ONE INTELLIGENCE, and MSC BIANCA SILVIA affected the SCFIS on June 16th, and it was expected to continue to have an impact on June 23rd. The delay of ships will have a negative impact on the final valuation [5]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US routes increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the freight rates soared under the background of supply - demand mismatch. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but the direct impact on the global container shipping market is relatively small as the Middle East is not the core hub of global container trade [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates on the US route increased significantly in June due to the supply-demand mismatch, but there are signs that the rates to the US West have peaked. The freight rates on the European route are expected to rise in July and August, and the peak time of the European route freight rates in 2025 is unclear. The 08 contract is in a fierce game between expectation and reality, and it is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently. The main strategy is that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [3][6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **European Route**: In the second half of June, the prices of most shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased. For example, HPL's shipping schedule quotes from June to July increased gradually; some shipping companies such as MSC announced price increase letters for the second half of June. The average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU. The expected delivery settlement price of the 06 contract is around 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract. There is still an expectation of price increase in July and August, and CMA's July shipping schedule quote on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by about 1000 US dollars/FEU compared with the second half of June [1][2][5][6]. - **US Route**: The freight rates on the US route increased significantly in June due to the supply-demand mismatch. The demand on the China - US route increased rapidly with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. However, there are signs that the freight rates to the US West have peaked, such as the decrease in the prices of Maersk on the Shanghai - Los Angeles and Shanghai - New York routes in the second week of the second half of June [3]. 2. Shipping Capacity - **European Route**: The shipping capacity pressure on the European route decreased in June. The average weekly shipping capacity in the remaining three weeks of June on the Shanghai - European route was about 280,600 TEU, and there were 6 blank sailings in total. The average weekly shipping capacity in July is 279,600 TEU, and there are 5 blank sailings in total [4]. - **US Route**: The shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. The average weekly shipping capacity in the remaining three weeks of June was 361,000 TEU, the average monthly weekly shipping capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the average weekly shipping capacity in July is 326,400 TEU [3]. 3. Geopolitical Situation The date of the next round of Iran - US talks has not been determined. Iran will respond to the US proposal in the next few days, and the Omani Foreign Minister will then determine the time and place of the next round of negotiations [2]. 4. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of June 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 87,143 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 67,155 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract closed at 1376.50, EC2604 contract at 1225.50, EC2506 contract at 1948.60, EC2508 contract at 2065.60, EC2510 contract at 1343.70, and EC2512 contract at 1520.70 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West) price was 5606 US dollars/FEU (the lowest in the year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6939 US dollars/FEU (the lowest in the year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). On June 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1622.81 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2185.08 points [3][7]. 5. Container Ship Delivery In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 7, 2025, 120 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 940,000 TEU. Among them, 36 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 544,000 TEU; 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [8].