公司公告2025 年中报：1）营收：上半年1091 亿元，同比+7.8%；25Q2 为511.4 亿，同比-3.4%（调整 后，下同）、环比-11.8%。2）归母净利：上半年175.4 亿，同比+3.9%；Q2 为58.4 亿，同比-42.2%/环 比-50%。3）扣非归母：上半年174.7 亿，同比+3.8%；Q2 为58.2 亿，同比-42.3%/环比-50%。4）分红 回购：中期现金分红86.7 亿元人民币，分红比例50%；上半年A+H 累计回购股份41.85 亿元人民币，回 购股数占期末总股本约2.2%。 关税政策反复扰动市场量价节奏，Q2 非美线箱量增长，单箱收入整体下滑。4 月高关税下美线需求骤 降，船司大比例停航支撑运价，而美线运力外调至其他航线导致其运力供给增加，主要航线运价承压。 5 月中旬关税暂缓后，美线积压货集中出运带来阶段性供需错配，但实际抢运需求缺乏持续性、叠加加 班船等措施下美线运力大增，运价冲高后迅速回落；其余航线总体呈现常规季节性波动、干线旺季有所 提前。 1）收入端：测算25Q2 集运业务收入约489.2 亿元，同比-4%；其中除海运以外的供应链收入107.3 亿， 同比+3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The report indicates that pessimistic expectations have been fully released, and the oil and bulk shipping sectors are experiencing a recovery trend [10] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue was 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 870 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [5][10] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The container shipping segment benefited from increased freight rates on Southeast Asia routes following the Red Sea incident, leading to a good performance [10] - The oil tanker segment faced pressure due to high base effects from the previous year and lower freight rates at the end of last year, resulting in a decline in performance [10] - The bulk shipping segment saw a decline in freight rates due to disruptions in iron ore and bauxite shipments, with the VLOC fleet maintaining resilience through COA contracts, while Panamax vessels struggled due to low South American grain shipments [10] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1, the oil shipping business generated revenue of 2.14 billion yuan, down 16.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 490 million yuan, down 44.0% year-on-year [6] - The dry bulk shipping business achieved revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 55.5% year-on-year [10] - The container shipping business reported revenue of 1.14 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, up 222.1% year-on-year [10] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the pessimistic expectations have been fully released, and the industry is on an upward trend, with potential for a synchronized recovery in oil and bulk shipping [10] - Future performance is expected to improve, with projected revenues of 6.3 billion, 6.6 billion, and 7.0 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 7.9, 7.5, and 7.1 times [10]