1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south". The supply pressure remains as the weekly production slightly increases. The demand support may weaken, and the cost provides some downside support. It is expected to consolidate in the short - term [16]. - For polysilicon, policy expectations resurge, causing the price to rebound. However, real - world constraints still exist, such as over - expected production in October, declining downstream silicon wafer production, and inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Industrial Silicon - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly production is 31,500 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. DMC production is 46,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons week - on - week. From January to August, the cumulative aluminum alloy production is 12.324 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.163 billion tons or 21.29%. From January to August, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54% [14]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon inventory is 696,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory is 262,500 tons, up 3,000 tons week - on - week; market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged; registered warehouse receipt inventory is 250,600 tons, down 800 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Price**: As of October 17, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - blown) industrial silicon in East China is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2511) closes at 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - **Cost**: The average cost in Xinjiang is 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 9,000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of industrial silicon is 97,500 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week [15]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of October 17, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type re -投料 is 52.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.25 yuan/kg week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense material is 51.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2511) closes at 52,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,375 yuan/ton week - on - week [17]. - **Cost**: The production cost of polysilicon is 41,493 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 9,107 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of polysilicon is 31,500 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase, close to the same period in 2024. From January to September, the cumulative production is 941,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.30% [17]. - **Downstream**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 14.35GW, a slight week - on - week increase. In September, the production of battery cells is 60.97GW, an increase of 2.7GW month - on - month. In September, the production of components is 49.9GW, an increase of 0.7GW month - on - month [17]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of polysilicon is 263,500 tons, and the SMM - statistical inventory is 253,000 tons [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of October 17, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - blown) industrial silicon in East China is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2511) closes at 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygen - blown) has a premium of 870 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 9.35%; the 421 has a discount of 470 yuan/ton to the main contract, with a basis ratio of 5.28% [23]. Polysilicon - As of October 17, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type re -投料 is 52.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.25 yuan/kg week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense material is 51.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2511) closes at 52,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,375 yuan/ton week - on - week. The main contract basis is 460 yuan/ton, with a basis ratio of 0.87% [26]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Total Production - As of October 17, 2025, the weekly production of industrial silicon is 97,500 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week. In September 2025, the production is 384,000 tons, an increase of 13,600 tons month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year decrease is 596,500 tons or 16.89% [31]. Production in Main Producing Areas - No specific analysis of production changes in main producing areas is provided in the summary part, but relevant data charts are shown. Production Cost - As of October 17, 2025, the electricity price and silica price in main producing areas are unchanged week - on - week. The average cost in Xinjiang is 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 9,000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [47]. Visible Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory is 696,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons, remaining at a high level. The factory inventory is 262,500 tons, up 3,000 tons week - on - week; the market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 250,600 tons, down 800 tons week - on - week [50]. 3.4 Polysilicon Production - As of October 17, 2025, the weekly production of polysilicon is 31,500 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase, close to the same period in 2024. In September, the production is 130,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative production is 941,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.30% [55]. Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production - The capacity utilization rate of polysilicon in September is 49.43%, an increase of 3.65 percentage points month - on - month. SMM predicts that the production in October will be 134,500 tons, an increase from the previous month [58]. Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon is 263,500 tons, and the SMM - statistical inventory is 253,000 tons [61]. Cost and Profit - As of October 17, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon is 41,493 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 9,107 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits [64]. Silicon Wafers - **Production**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 14.35GW, a slight week - on - week increase. In September, the production is 59.05GW, an increase of 3.01GW month - on - month. From January to September, the production is 488.17GW, a year - on - year decrease of 5.58% [67]. - **Scheduled Production and Inventory**: The inventory of silicon wafers is 17.31GW, a slight week - on - week increase. The predicted production in October is 55.68GW, a decrease from September [70]. Battery Cells - **Production**: In September, the production of battery cells is 60.97GW, an increase of 2.7GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate in September is 59.56%, an increase of 2.67 percentage points month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative production is 507.84GW, a year - on - year increase of 2.43% [75]. - **Scheduled Production and Inventory**: The inventory of battery cells is 6.63GW, a week - on - week rebound. The predicted production in October is 59.6GW, a slight decrease from the previous month [78]. Components - **Production**: In September, the production of components is 49.9GW, an increase of 0.7GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate in September is 48.7%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative production is 429.5GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.34% [83]. - **Scheduled Production and Inventory**: The inventory of components is 34.2GW, a slight week - on - week increase. The predicted production in October is 48.31GW, a decrease from September [86]. 3.5 Organic Silicon Production - As of October 17, 2025, the DMC production is 46,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons week - on - week. In September, the production is 208,800 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative production is 1.8618 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.89% [93]. Price and Profit - As of October 17, 2025, the average price of organic silicon is 11,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC is - 1,703.13 yuan/ton [96]. Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the DMC inventory is 41,800 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons week - on - week [99]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The price of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 21,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,070 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan/ton [104]. - **Production**: From January to August, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy is 12.324 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.163 billion tons or 21.29% [104]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy is 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy is 58.6% [107]. Exports - From January to August, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54% [110].